Footballguys "Game Predictor" (1 Viewer)

[ClubberLang]

I'm in to gambling. That's just my thing ...

Last year I used the "Game Predictor" to identify which plays have the most value when compared with Vegas lines. It's pretty simple actually. All I did was take the data from the Game Predictor each week, input the odds on the same excel sheet, and make a column telling me the difference of the two. Which ever games have the biggest discrepancy is the games I play. This includes sides and totals. For example, in the Week 1 Game Predictor, it shows:

Minnesota Vikings 22.0

New Orleans Saints 25.7

The line at most places is -4.5 and the total is 48

The difference in the side is 0.8 points (22.0 + 4.5 - 25.7), pointing me to the Vikings +4.5

The difference in the total is 0.3 points (48 - (22.0 + 25.7)), pointing me to the UNDER 48.

Before the start of the season, I set two arbitrary rules for myself while using this info:

A) Take only the 3 biggest discrepancies per week

B) 1 unit per game

Last year, this thing hit just a shade under 70% of the time which is very, very profitable. The top 3 plays would be different, all over the board ... unders, overs, home dogs, big favorites ...

Now that I have explained my platform, my question is this:

This year, the Game Predictor is pointing to every single Week 1 game to go UNDER. I never saw anything like this last year. Is there something wrong with the Game Predictor this year? Or are lines in Vegas a little higher than it should be?

 

[Larrywarren]

Interesting post thanks.

As someone also into betting, I've adopted the tactic of mass point selling in Week 1 over the last few years and consistently made profit.

In general terms I think Offensive schemes are more complex than defensive ones and with there invariably being so many personnel changes between one season and another, it takes Offenses a bit longer to gel.

 

[Keepers]

I come up with an Under of .3 pts instead of 3.3 pts.

 

[swifty]

Clubber, what "game predictor" and are you going to share those 3 biggest discrepancies?

 

[ClubberLang]

I come up with an Under of .3 pts instead of 3.3 pts.

You are absolutely correct. My fault.

 

[ClubberLang]

Clubber, what "game predictor" and are you going to share those 3 biggest discrepancies?

Game Predictor ... it's in the subscriber's content.Top 3 plays as of right now are:Bengals/Patriots UNDER 44.5Cleveland Browns +3San Francisco 49ers -3That could change though. Lines could change, and the game predictor usually updates throughout the week.

 

[goodoldalky]

Squares are notorious for piling on favorites and the over, especially at high volume times like week 1. I wouldn't be shocked if any "profitable" system was heavy on the unders.. GL

 

[KillerToad]

I've used the predictor the last several years and it has helped me win a nice share of vs the line pools and suicide pools. What I do is round the numbers up or down before I plug them into the lines for the games. So a 27.5 would be 28 and an 18.4 would be 18. It's been very successful for me using this method.

So using my method tonights game would be 48 total points and right on the line. I'd stay away from the over under tonight and take Minn and cross my fingers. But tonights game is a tough bet that's for sure, I;d stay away.