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Sounds about right.Again, I'm not sure where all the Forsett love is coming from. Carroll traded for not one, but two relatively proven RBs on the same day.
Carroll traded next to nothing to get Lendale and Washington, so hard to say they were "statement moves". They were good, low cost moves to help shore up a position that no doubt has question marks.Forsett is going to have to win playing time and win the lead role, I don't think anyone expected different. But I'd rather it be against those two than Lynch/Matthews/Spiller/Best.
Football Critic said:
A 25 year old who was a top 15 fantasy RB 3 years ago (and still top 20 two years ago), who was just traded for by his former college coach. I'm just wondering if Forsett owners think that if they keep posting that Forsett will still be the starter, they beleive that will help make it come true. 
Say hello to Cedric Benson v2.0He's averaged 3.7 yds per carry for his career. That's worse than a broken-down Jamal Lewis. Let's not pretend that he's a Pro Bowler just waiting for an opportunity.Football Critic said:
I'm just wondering if Forsett owners think that if they keep posting that Forsett will still be the starter, they beleive that will help make it come true.
Say hello to Cedric Benson v2.0
YPC is a terrible statistic for goal line and short yardage runners. White had 53 rushes for 87 yards in "and 1" situations (2nd and 1, 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1). He averaged more than 1 yard per carry, which is successful. But his YPC looks terrible. Similarly, he had 38 rushes for 44 yards and 20 TDs from inside the 5 yard line (note that I can't separate out how many of those overlap the "and 1" carries above). So more than half of those rush attempts went for touchdowns. Again, that's very successful. So when you look at his 629 career carries for 2349 yards, you have to discount that he has an abnormally high number of about 100 short yardage carries where he should be expected to get, say, 1.2 YPC. Which would leave his other 529 carries for 2229 yards, or about 4.2 YPC on his "normal" carries. Now, all running backs have some of these short yardage carries. For example, Forsett had 10 carries for 40 yards in "and 1" situations last year. Of those, he had 6 carries for 29 yards on second and 1, and 3 carries for 0 yards on third and 1, and one carry for 11 yards on 4th and 1. So it's worth noting that Lendale's numbers are skewed a lot more by these short yardage situations, and that he was a lot more succesful. It's also worth noting that Lendale has shown an ability to handle 300 carries in an NFL season - something nobody else on the roster has done - and is the type of back that real NFL coaches like to use to soften up the defense. You pound the big guy early in the game, then bring in the quick backs on third downs and later in the game. That's probably not going to be good for Lendale's career YPC, and will probably make Forsett or Leon look even better by comparison because they'll come in more often in favorable situations. And fantasy football owners everywhere will be throwing their remotes at the TV wondering why Carroll keeps giving so many carries to Lendale when there are obviously better guys on the roster. Lendale is in a perfect situation to lead the team in carries and TDs. My early guess is about 220 carries for 850 yards and 9 TDs, with 15 receptions for 50 yards. I'm not predicting huge numbers from him, but I do think he can be a solid contributor, maybe even with some upside.
Yep - it's tough to average 4.8 YPC if your handed the ball on 3rd and 1 from the 1. When used as a short yardage/goal line/early down back, he was a top 15 fantasy RB. While I don't see him quite that succesful in Seattle, he certainly could be a viable RB2 depending on matchups, if used in a similar fashion (which, every indication seems to point to).The other issue is that Forsett and Washington have a similar skill set and have typically been used in a similar fashion (i.e. up until last season, they were both 3rd down/change-of-pace guys). One of them may be the odd man out (and I doubt it's the guy they just brought in) - or both of their touches may take a hit if they share time in that role.An "adjusted" yds per carry of 4.2 isn't particularly good. (adjusting for short-yardage carries) How would that rank amongst NFL RBs? Mediocre.It's not like we've never seen Lendale get a chance to carry the load. He's been given opportunities before, and when that's happened, he produced mediocre numbers. He's completely dependent on a combo of a) lots of carries, b) goalline opportunities.I'm not saying he lacks value as RB3. Heck, he could be serviceable as RB3 this year. But let's not give the impression that all Lendale has lacked is an opportunity.
I think we're saying similar things. I think Lendale gets the biggest share of the carries of the three, I think he'll get the most touchdowns, and I think he will have the worst YPC. It seems like you agree. I posted a light projection for him that also suggested he'd put up what you're calling serviceable RB3 numbers. And I think he'll be available late in drafts. The thing I'm arguing is not that he's going to be a superstar, but that he's going to be the most productive fantasy back on the team. This thread seemed to have started with people talking about Forsett still being the #1, or Leon maybe being the true #1 on this team, which I disagree with. I think Lendale was brought in with the goal of making him a 200+ carry back, and is the most likely candidate to lead the team in carries at this early point in the offseason.
BF - we're definitely saying similar things then.
Using the YPC as your only argument is not a good one, I can argue his 15 TD season against that....after all isn't football about scoring TD's?An "adjusted" yds per carry of 4.2 isn't particularly good. (adjusting for short-yardage carries) How would that rank amongst NFL RBs? Mediocre.It's not like we've never seen Lendale get a chance to carry the load. He's been given opportunities before, and when that's happened, he produced mediocre numbers. He's completely dependent on a combo of a) lots of carries, b) goalline opportunities.I'm not saying he lacks value as RB3. Heck, he could be serviceable as RB3 this year. But let's not give the impression that all Lendale has lacked is an opportunity.
One reason could be to motivate White (Carroll may know he needs to be motivated)finito said:
It isn't the only argument against him - have you ever watched him play? I'm not saying that he sucks, or that he won't produce, etc. I'm saying that he's average at best. Fortunately, he's in a solid situation for 2010. Maybe you can count on him as RB3 this year. But if people are expecting 1200 yds, 15 TDs, they will be disappointed.And while YPC isn't always the perfect measure, as BF noted above, even if you adjust for his high % of short-yardage situations, he still only gets 4.2 YPC. Behind an O-line that produced a record-breaking RB in 2009. So yeah, YPC isn't perfect, but let's not pretend that it is meaningless.Using the YPC as your only argument is not a good one, I can argue his 15 TD season against that....after all isn't football about scoring TD's?An "adjusted" yds per carry of 4.2 isn't particularly good. (adjusting for short-yardage carries) How would that rank amongst NFL RBs? Mediocre.It's not like we've never seen Lendale get a chance to carry the load. He's been given opportunities before, and when that's happened, he produced mediocre numbers. He's completely dependent on a combo of a) lots of carries, b) goalline opportunities.I'm not saying he lacks value as RB3. Heck, he could be serviceable as RB3 this year. But let's not give the impression that all Lendale has lacked is an opportunity.Yep - it's tough to average 4.8 YPC if your handed the ball on 3rd and 1 from the 1. When used as a short yardage/goal line/early down back, he was a top 15 fantasy RB. While I don't see him quite that succesful in Seattle, he certainly could be a viable RB2 depending on matchups, if used in a similar fashion (which, every indication seems to point to).The other issue is that Forsett and Washington have a similar skill set and have typically been used in a similar fashion (i.e. up until last season, they were both 3rd down/change-of-pace guys). One of them may be the odd man out (and I doubt it's the guy they just brought in) - or both of their touches may take a hit if they share time in that role.
No one is expecting 1200 + 15 (well, no one with at least half a brain). But in 2007, he had 1100 + 7 - and that put him at RB15. Now, with less carries on a lesser team, I can easily see him at 800 + 10 (as he will still get most of the short yardage/GL looks), which will make him a viable RB2/3 depending on matchups - as that will likely land him somewhere around RB18-24.
nice post...this is a pretty murky situation...the only two clear things seem to be...white will handle short yardage and goal linewashington will have a role if healthy, seemingly a better fit as a situational, third down RB, than a starter...addressing a bone of contention regarding carroll saying white & washington will be nice 1-2 punch... that could have (probably) connoted their new roles... it also could refer to nice 1-2 punch for RBs they acquired during draft...i think white or forsett could start... white does have the size and track record in the NFL (before johnson took over) to get the most carries... though even at USC, he was part of a RBBC with bush (and at TEN in johnson's rookie year)... if forsett doesn't "start" over white, than he is almost certainly the odd man out, contingent on health of washington (forsett could have similar skill set to washington, though not as electric)... with primary RBBC white/washington (playing the bush role)...not sure this is as clear cut as some white or forsett advocates have it, and could play out in training camp, pre-season, & even during the season...i suspect i like white more than many of the forsett supporters, but maybe also forsett more than some of the white supporters!
my guess is white does get the bulk of the carries (supplemented with maybe something like a 60/40, 65/35 split with washington)... but forsett can't be written off... they will keep three RBs (jones looks like an afterthought)... to clarify my position of being RELATIVELY high on white AND forsett... i agree white has more going for him than the sceptics have it, and is most likely to "start" given relationship with carroll, and his proven production in past... but, imo, forsett is more explosive, and could be more productive than white, given a chance (and if he can hold up... while he looked good when thrust into prominence later in the 2009 season, it was just for a few games)...at least at USC, carroll was famous for creating intense competition at every position... if his coaching talent extends to identifing his best talent, and forsett outplays white, i wouldn't assume he is incapable of recognizing that... while the acquisition of not one but TWO RBs does seem to be an indictment of forsett, it could be related to a preference for enhancing competition and depth... numbers are important in what is a brutal position...it is possible that forsett's presence could push white... and vice verce... not everybody responds positively to competition, but at least in the case of white, they do share a history at USC, so carroll probably has a pretty good idea of what to expect from him.
I was mainly referring to the comments made by posters that said Forsett "falls down like a rock", or "will be riding the bench".Its comments like these that are completely ignorant.I love the confidence to rip people for not knowing what they're talking about & to back it up with a whopping PROBABLY statement!!!
I'm a huge Forsett fan and owner who was pretty giddy when they picked up Lendale. I thought it could of been a lot worse if a more talented everydown type back was drafted. A White/Forsett combo would of been good for Forsett, but once they also picked up Washington, Forsett is not really in Carroll's plan IMO. Not good news when a new coach brings in another player who is a similar style back that is more explosive.I was mainly referring to the comments made by posters that said Forsett "falls down like a rock", or "will be riding the bench".Its comments like these that are completely ignorant.I love the confidence to rip people for not knowing what they're talking about & to back it up with a whopping PROBABLY statement!!!
Apparently we know a lot.
Apparently they do
to sign with Denver and win the starting job back
in this thread.
