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Foster and Hillis (1 Viewer)

bigmiiiiike

Footballguy
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches.

These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?

 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
I think it's a combination of things- much better system, more stability (with coaches/QB especially), Foster is more talented (IMO), and if you look at the numbers, as good as Hillis' season was, Foster was much better.
 
Dynasty drafts really reflect this phenomenon. Hillis is going in the 5th round of many of these drafts and Foster is a top 3 pick. Foster is clearly the better back in a better offense, but the point you are trying to make in the OP is valid. Hillis is a steal right now at his ADP.

I am going to toss my 2 cents in why this is happening. The fantasy writers are giving too much credit to Montario Hardesty. What people really need to know is that Hardesty blew an ACL at Tenn in 2005. Hardesty is only 10 months out from his second ACL tear. I am not sure Hardesty will ever be the player the Browns hoped he could be. What I can't wrap my mind around is why the Browns traded Jerome Harrison after Hardesty's knee blew out.

 
I personally liked Foster a lot when he was coming out Tennessee in the Draft. What hurts Hillis are several factors...

- He was a FB coming out of college at Arkansas and was very low on the depth chart in Denver (only starting at RB due to a mega ton of injuries that were abnormal to see for a team). He was traded to Cleveland and the head coach last year is now gone.

- He made a lot of his impact through the receiving game (61 catches for 477 yards and 2 TD) and it's hard to tell that he'll continue to be targeted that often with McCoy getting a 2nd Year and likely going more downfield.

- If you look at his game logs, he was extremely limited as a productive runner statistically. He had 5 games over 100 yards but only had 2 other games where he hit 69 and 82 yards. That 184 yard game against New England really boosted his overall rushing totals much higher and games like that are way out of the norm.

- Cleveland is moving towards a much more pure West Coast offense and it's hard to say how his 6'1 240 lb size will fit into a scheme that requires a good receiving back. Hardesty (and Jerome Harrison) both seemed to be in Mangini's doghouse and it's expected that Shurmur will use Hardesty more (or another RB as a 2nd option to Hillis).

 
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Dynasty drafts really reflect this phenomenon. Hillis is going in the 5th round of many of these drafts and Foster is a top 3 pick. Foster is clearly the better back in a better offense, but the point you are trying to make in the OP is valid. Hillis is a steal right now at his ADP.

I am going to toss my 2 cents in why this is happening. The fantasy writers are giving too much credit to Montario Hardesty. What people really need to know is that Hardesty blew an ACL at Tenn in 2005. Hardesty is only 10 months out from his second ACL tear. I am not sure Hardesty will ever be the player the Browns hoped he could be. What I can't wrap my mind around is why the Browns traded Jerome Harrison after Hardesty's knee blew out.
The credit for Hardesty is strange. Last year, FF rookie drafts had Hardesty and Tate going right next to each other, usually in the range of picks 6-10, so it's not like many people thought Hardesty was that much better (if at all) than Tate coming out of college.
 
I personally liked Foster a lot when he was coming out Tennessee in the Draft. What hurts Hillis are several factors...- He was a FB coming out of college at Arkansas and was very low on the depth chart in Denver (only starting at RB due to a mega ton of injuries that were abnormal to see for a team). He was traded to Cleveland and the head coach last year is now gone.- He made a lot of his impact through the receiving game (61 catches for 477 yards and 2 TD) and it's hard to tell that he'll continue to be targeted that often with McCoy getting a 2nd Year and likely going more downfield.- If you look at his game logs, he was extremely limited as a productive runner statistically. He had 5 games over 100 yards but only had 2 other games where he hit 69 and 82 yards. That 184 yard game against New England really boosted his overall rushing totals much higher and games like that are way out of the norm.- Cleveland is moving towards a much more pure West Coast offense and it's hard to say how his 6'1 240 lb size will fit into a scheme that requires a good receiving back. Hardesty (and Jerome Harrison) both seemed to be in Mangini's doghouse and it's expected that Shurmur will use Hardesty more (or another RB as a 2nd option to Hillis).
So....too much of his stats came from receiving, yet you aren't sure how he will fit in a scheme that needs a receiving back?
 
I feel like Hillis is a great receiver. He could catch downfield and the dump off passes. McCoy will most likely IMO throw more to Hillis especially in the red zone. Hardesty is a good backup for Hillis.

 
I personally liked Foster a lot when he was coming out Tennessee in the Draft. What hurts Hillis are several factors...- He was a FB coming out of college at Arkansas and was very low on the depth chart in Denver (only starting at RB due to a mega ton of injuries that were abnormal to see for a team). He was traded to Cleveland and the head coach last year is now gone.
He was only a FB coming out of Arkansas because they added McFadden and Jones while he was in school. He was reruited as and played HB at Arkansas early in his career.
- He made a lot of his impact through the receiving game (61 catches for 477 yards and 2 TD) and it's hard to tell that he'll continue to be targeted that often with McCoy getting a 2nd Year and likely going more downfield.
His receptions may go down, but McCoy isn't really a big downfield passer and the Browns still don't really have a lot of options in the passing game.
- If you look at his game logs, he was extremely limited as a productive runner statistically. He had 5 games over 100 yards but only had 2 other games where he hit 69 and 82 yards. That 184 yard game against New England really boosted his overall rushing totals much higher and games like that are way out of the norm.
I suspect you would get similiar results looking at any of the top backs game logs. Even Foster had a few "stinkers" based solely on rushing yards. Also Hillis played the final three games with a bad injury to his ribs which hurt his statistics those weeks.
- Cleveland is moving towards a much more pure West Coast offense and it's hard to say how his 6'1 240 lb size will fit into a scheme that requires a good receiving back. Hardesty (and Jerome Harrison) both seemed to be in Mangini's doghouse and it's expected that Shurmur will use Hardesty more (or another RB as a 2nd option to Hillis).
Aren't you contradicting a point you made further up in your arguments against Hillis? If he made his bones as a receving back, why is it hard to say that he fits the role as a receving back?Hardesty blew out an ACL before he could get into Mangini's doghouse, but agree that its possible Hardesty gets used more this season - although I'm not sure that's necessarily a bad thing provided that Hillis outplays him and sees the bulk of the carries.As to the OP, I think it may just come down to the fact that Hillis doesn't fit the "mold" of other sucessful NFL RBs. What's funny is that he has more of a track record of success than Foster does, if you look at the five game stretch he had in Denver where he tore it up as well.
 
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So....too much of his stats came from receiving, yet you aren't sure how he will fit in a scheme that needs a receiving back?
Well some questions are over his effective rushing ability but in terms of receiving ability, I look more at the ability to turn those catches into yards. Hillis averaged 7.82 YPR last season, despite getting 61 catches. That makes me question his abilities in open space. When you think of WCO RBs, you think of very good receiving RBs like Roger Craig, Warrick Dunn, or Charlie Garner. Guys who could average over 8+ YPR. That's why guys like Marshall Faulk and LT2 were so deadly in their primes as dual threat RBs.For comparison to other "receiving" backs from last year... Almost all those guys put up 8+ YPR and are known for their receiving abilities equally.Darren Sproles: 8.82 on 52 catchesDanny Woodhead: 11.14 on 34 catchesLeSean McCoy: 7.59 on 78 catches. Eclipsed 1,000 yards but did so on a big 5.22 YPCSteven Jackson: 8.33 on 46 catchesArian Foster: 9.15 on 66 catchesRay Rice: 8.83 on 63 catchesJahvid Best: 8.40 on 58 catchesIn a PPR league, getting 61 catches from a RB is great. In a non-PPR league though, I'd take the guy who gets equal/more yards despite getting 5-10 fewer catches because they've shown better playmaking abilities as receiving options. In a pure WCO, the RB gets a lot of touches through the receiving game and in order to be a complete RB (and effective one both in FF and in RL), they have to turn those catches into yards downfield.It's worth nothing that both Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison combined for just 10 catches but both averaged 10+ YPR on their catches respectively. A healthy Hardesty or Mike Bell could be effective as receiving weapons because they get more yards per catch and could cut into Hillis' productivity that way.
I suspect you would get similiar results looking at any of the top backs game logs. Even Foster had a few "stinkers" based solely on rushing yards. Also Hillis played the final three games with a bad leg injury which hurt his statistics those weeks.
Fair enough but my argument more was that for a "great" RB getting compared to Arian Foster, the leading rusher in the NFL, he should've been a little more consistent even in his "bad" games. The fact that he struggled to hit 70 yards in other games is a worrying sign. Most of the top RBs get 3-5 100 yard games and roughly 2-4 other games over 80 yards.For comparison's sake...Arian Foster: 8 games over 100 yards with 2 other games over 80 and 1 other game over 90 yards.Jamaal Charles: 4 games over 100 yards but had 6 other games over 80 yards and 2 others over 70 yards.LeSean McCoy: 3 games over 100 yards with 2 other games over 90 yards. RB1 more known for his receiving prowess.Matt Forte: 3 games over 100 yards but had 3 other games over 90 yards.Peyton Hillis: 5 games over 100 yards with 1 other game over 80 yards.
 
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Last year, before either any injuries, the Texans were entering the season saying "Foster is our guy". They flat out said he'd be the starter even with Tate healthy.

Conversely, the Browns were entering the season saying "Hardesty is our guy". They planned on starting him over Harrison, Hillis, & Davis.

For me, I think that's one of the big reasons why I feel like Hardesty will get plenty of opportunities this year - the Browns loved what they saw of him and he would've been the starter if not for injury. Whereas with Foster/Tate, the Texans were planning on starting Foster over Tate based on what they'd seen and after Foster's performance Tate should have a tougher time seeing the field now. ...They'll mix him in this year but not as much as the Browns use Hardesty.

 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Now imagine if Hillis didn't lead NFL running backs with eight fumbles last season.
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Now imagine if Hillis didn't lead NFL running backs with eight fumbles last season.
Actually, from my limited research, Ahmad Bradshaw led the league in fumbles lost with 6. Hillis had 5, still not a great number, but still not leading the league.As for the inflated 8 number you gave, 3 of those came in the MISERABLE Buffalo game in week 14. I am sure not many people saw it with those 2 stellar teams, but it was basically a blizzard on the field, so that is somewhat understandable. There were a total of 7 fumbles in that game.
 
Texan coaches have stated that even with a healthy Tate, Foster is the man. No time share

Browns coaches have said, Hardesty will have a big roll, want to reduce Hillis' touches this year.

 
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.

Now imagine if Hillis didn't lead NFL running backs with eight fumbles last season.

Actually, from my limited research, Ahmad Bradshaw led the league in fumbles lost with 6. Hillis had 5, still not a great number, but still not leading the league.

As for the inflated 8 number you gave, 3 of those came in the MISERABLE Buffalo game in week 14. I am sure not many people saw it with those 2 stellar teams, but it was basically a blizzard on the field, so that is somewhat understandable. There were a total of 7 fumbles in that game.

The list I have says 8??? Are you not going to count those three fumbles as having happened because it was horrible weather? Like terrible weather won't happen again and no one else had to play in bad conditions? Do you also ignore that he was the second worst fumbler even if you don't count his worst (and horrendous) 3 fumble game? I see the bad weather as a factor to consider, but no reason to ignore that the three fumbles happened. IIRC he also had an injured rib at that time which is another factor. But if Hardesty isn't a cough up machine and Peyton contiues to be, that alone might cut pretty deeply into carries, no?

The more curious comment to me, though, is the lead in here on race. Do you imagine people would like him better or worse if he were a different color?

 
The list I have says 8??? Are you not going to count those three fumbles as having happened because it was horrible weather? Like terrible weather won't happen again and no one else had to play in bad conditions? Do you also ignore that he was the second worst fumbler even if you don't count his worst (and horrendous) 3 fumble game? I see the bad weather as a factor to consider, but no reason to ignore that the three fumbles happened. IIRC he also had an injured rib at that time which is another factor. But if Hardesty isn't a cough up machine and Peyton contiues to be, that alone might cut pretty deeply into carries, no?The more curious comment to me, though, is the lead in here on race. Do you imagine people would like him better or worse if he were a different color?
No, I am using the "Fumbles Lost" statistic as opposed to "Fumbles". If the ball does not change possession, then I do not consider that a bad play. Anything from a bad snap from center to the QB that drops and he picks up to a bad handoff that the RB jumps on is listed as a "Fumble", whereas that may not be that player's fault.Especially in that Buffalo game that I mentioned, the weather was a HUGE consideration on handoff exchanges. And of the 3 "Fumbles" that Hillis had in that game, only 1 was actually lost to the opponent. One he recovered himself, and 1 other was recovered by his FB, Vickers.I just don't see fumbling as a huge issue with him - a lot of it was because of questionable ball security at times, but that is easily correctable, as opposed to simply being unable to hold onto the ball.
 
Texan coaches have stated that even with a healthy Tate, Foster is the man. No time shareBrowns coaches have said, Hardesty will have a big roll, want to reduce Hillis' touches this year.
Bingo.I've done very well in FF for years by paying attention to what coaches are planning, not what message board hacks think. I'll continue to be told I'm nuts (as some idiot in the other Hillis thread said yesterday), and I'll continue to do very well, while others continue to draft last year's stats and later wonder why things didn't work out for them.
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
 
Texan coaches have stated that even with a healthy Tate, Foster is the man. No time shareBrowns coaches have said, Hardesty will have a big roll, want to reduce Hillis' touches this year.
Bingo.I've done very well in FF for years by paying attention to what coaches are planning, not what message board hacks think. I'll continue to be told I'm nuts (as some idiot in the other Hillis thread said yesterday), and I'll continue to do very well, while others continue to draft last year's stats and later wonder why things didn't work out for them.
Elway has been quoted to expect a "breakout year" by Moreno. Are you drafting Moreno?
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
How is this a racist comment? This type of discussion regarding Hillis has been brought up several times on this board...
 
No, I am using the "Fumbles Lost" statistic as opposed to "Fumbles". If the ball does not change possession, then I do not consider that a bad play.
This is wrong. What happens after the ball hits the ground is totally random. The only thing that can be controlled is hanging onto it in the first place.
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
Was this a joke???
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
Was this a joke???
I agree. Mark, I think you are overreacting here. No racism seems intended in that comment.
 
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
Was this a joke???
I agree. Mark, I think you are overreacting here. No racism seems intended in that comment.
Big time overreaction, and a confusing response too. Racism? Really?
 
I wont get into the comparison, but I'll say this, I'd be much more worried about Ben Tate stealing carries than Hardesty. Tate is much more talented as well as much more durable. Coming into last season there were injury knocks on Hardesty, that was BEFORE he blew out his knee before ever playing a down. Hardesty is coming off his second blown ACL, that's not so promising. Tate on the other hand blew up the combine last year and is coming off a bone break and IMO he fits the Texans system very well

 
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This is relatively simple to me. In PPR scoring last year, Foster had 23.75 ppg. He was far and away the #1 RB. Hillis was very good, but he only put up 17.5 ppg.

So even if you completely buy the assumption that both guys will come back to earth a bit and that Tate/Hardesty steal some carries, you still have one back who scored 6.25 ppg more than the other. If you say both guys come back to earth a bit at the rate of 4 less ppg, Foster would score 19.75 ppg, easily enough to justify a top 3 overall pick. Hillis would score only 13.5 ppf, enough to justify a 4th round selection.

Just my opinion, but based on the above analysis, both guys are being drafted about where they should be when you factor in a 3 to 5 ppg drop for each guy (which I think most people are).

 
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Mark/staff....

are we not allowed here to possibly think and express the fact that race affects some people's fantasy football opinion about players...?.....if so I missed the email....we are on this board to get a feel from everybody and how other people value certain players...

it could be a very valid fantasy point that some people undervalue Hillis because he is white....

do I agree....maybe...maybe not....but let me decide....don't give people a "vacation" because they bring up something that some people feel is a factor in FANTASY football....

he didn't make a racist comment and should not be banned....in fact, the fact that he was banned for such a comment might actually be worse than what he said.....the banner is assuming it was a racist comment....there have been hundreds/thousands of threads in here and the Free For All where people talk about "what if they were white" or "what if they were black"....why is fantasy football any different.....

he wasn't being racist, he was just brininging up a point how skin color might affect people's fantasy opinion about a guy...it happens a lot....don't kid yourself...

now to respond to the OP....I feel the same the way....Foster had one of those career seasons and everybody thinks he will continue....so did Hillis but he ain't getting any love.....dude was beast when he got the rock in Denver, it continued in CLE and many around here were pissed when he was let go....especially with the state of the DEN running game....Hillis can play...he has proven it in both DEN and CLE...he will be a steal as a RB2...let alone a possible flex option....

 
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Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious?

If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they?

Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go.

If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload. Hillis was simply fantastic last year, toiling for an awful offense, but now HE needs to have his role diminished? Again, provide me with some examples of other RBs-as young as Hillis- who produced like this and had their roles reduced by the team the next season. If this was any other RB, the same people would be demanding that the Browns fill in the pieces around Hillis, their star player.

The OP brings up a great point, but the obvious reason for Hardesty's being so overhyped (an injury prone back who hasn't even appeared in a regular season game) is that he is the only back on the roster who can challenge Hillis for carries. Someone obviously wants that to happen. We'll see- I believe Hillis should actually have his role increased- he is the most powerfully built runner in the league, and it's ridiculous to suggest that a physical freak like him would be "worn down" while tiny, less conditioned runners like Rice and MJD somehow can handle the workload.

I love both Foster and Hillis- they led me to a championship in one of my leagues last season. However, it is indisputable that they are being treated differently, in both NFL and fantasy terms. That's fine with me- I always profit in fantasy leagues from the stupidity and narrow minded thinking of others. I picked up Hillis in two leagues last year (he went completely undrafted- and I'm sure it was because no one had an interest in a white RB), and also did well with white WRs like Austin Collie and then Blair White (when Collie was hurt). I'm not favoring white players, but it's easier to find a productive player when other owners consistently ignore them. This year, I'll be targeting Jordy Nelson heavily, because I suspect others won't (although I could be wrong about that- some of them may remember the Super Bowl).

Hillis is a great NFL back and a top fantasy producer.

 
I work with some guys who invited me into their FF league this year. I was the only white guy in that league, and we made fun remarks about it all year.

Oh, and the guy that owned Hillis called him the white buffalo.

I think the mods need to chill a bit and not jump the gun.

 
'dickey moe said:
'Mark Wimer said:
'Clifford said:
'bigmiiiiike said:
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
How is this a racist comment? This type of discussion regarding Hillis has been brought up several times on this board...
I agree. I think people are being a little naive if they think the fact that Hillis is white and "looks like a fullback" doesn't come into play with some of the non-beleivers. In fact, I implied so much when I said he doesn't fit the mold of a typical NFL RB and therefore people can't quite get behind him. I'm not saying all of his doubters are "racists" in anyway, but its human nature for people to not trust something that isn't familiar.
 
'bigunreal said:
Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious? If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they? Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go. If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload. Hillis was simply fantastic last year, toiling for an awful offense, but now HE needs to have his role diminished? Again, provide me with some examples of other RBs-as young as Hillis- who produced like this and had their roles reduced by the team the next season. If this was any other RB, the same people would be demanding that the Browns fill in the pieces around Hillis, their star player. The OP brings up a great point, but the obvious reason for Hardesty's being so overhyped (an injury prone back who hasn't even appeared in a regular season game) is that he is the only back on the roster who can challenge Hillis for carries. Someone obviously wants that to happen. We'll see- I believe Hillis should actually have his role increased- he is the most powerfully built runner in the league, and it's ridiculous to suggest that a physical freak like him would be "worn down" while tiny, less conditioned runners like Rice and MJD somehow can handle the workload. I love both Foster and Hillis- they led me to a championship in one of my leagues last season. However, it is indisputable that they are being treated differently, in both NFL and fantasy terms. That's fine with me- I always profit in fantasy leagues from the stupidity and narrow minded thinking of others. I picked up Hillis in two leagues last year (he went completely undrafted- and I'm sure it was because no one had an interest in a white RB), and also did well with white WRs like Austin Collie and then Blair White (when Collie was hurt). I'm not favoring white players, but it's easier to find a productive player when other owners consistently ignore them. This year, I'll be targeting Jordy Nelson heavily, because I suspect others won't (although I could be wrong about that- some of them may remember the Super Bowl). Hillis is a great NFL back and a top fantasy producer.
You really don't think the 6ppg difference between them last year is more the driving factor here?Arian Foster beat Peyton Hillis by more than Jamaal Charles beat Mike Tolbert. 6 ppg is a ton. Put another way, Foster scored 100 more points last season than Hillis did. I really think that is a much bigger factor in why they are projected so differently than race.
 
'Mark Wimer said:
'Clifford said:
'bigmiiiiike said:
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches. These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
Now imagine that Mark spends more then 10 minutes in the FFA - we would have nobody left with all the "now imagine he was" comments.
 
'bigunreal said:
Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious? If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they? Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go. If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload. Hillis was simply fantastic last year, toiling for an awful offense, but now HE needs to have his role diminished? Again, provide me with some examples of other RBs-as young as Hillis- who produced like this and had their roles reduced by the team the next season. If this was any other RB, the same people would be demanding that the Browns fill in the pieces around Hillis, their star player. The OP brings up a great point, but the obvious reason for Hardesty's being so overhyped (an injury prone back who hasn't even appeared in a regular season game) is that he is the only back on the roster who can challenge Hillis for carries. Someone obviously wants that to happen. We'll see- I believe Hillis should actually have his role increased- he is the most powerfully built runner in the league, and it's ridiculous to suggest that a physical freak like him would be "worn down" while tiny, less conditioned runners like Rice and MJD somehow can handle the workload. I love both Foster and Hillis- they led me to a championship in one of my leagues last season. However, it is indisputable that they are being treated differently, in both NFL and fantasy terms. That's fine with me- I always profit in fantasy leagues from the stupidity and narrow minded thinking of others. I picked up Hillis in two leagues last year (he went completely undrafted- and I'm sure it was because no one had an interest in a white RB), and also did well with white WRs like Austin Collie and then Blair White (when Collie was hurt). I'm not favoring white players, but it's easier to find a productive player when other owners consistently ignore them. This year, I'll be targeting Jordy Nelson heavily, because I suspect others won't (although I could be wrong about that- some of them may remember the Super Bowl). Hillis is a great NFL back and a top fantasy producer.
You really don't think the 6ppg difference between them last year is more the driving factor here?Arian Foster beat Peyton Hillis by more than Jamaal Charles beat Mike Tolbert. 6 ppg is a ton. Put another way, Foster scored 100 more points last season than Hillis did. I really think that is a much bigger factor in why they are projected so differently than race.
I don't think anyone was arguing that Hillis is a better draft pick or player than Foster. The OP's point was that people believe Foster is for real while Hillis is a fluke and why that may be. They both "came out of nowhere" last year, but people are willing to give Foster the benefit of the doubt but not Hillis (who actually had more of a track record of success). It's not really so much about Foster v. Hillis - but rather why people have their doubts about Hillis.
 
Foster had one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Hillis didn't. That's a good start.

However, I do think Hillis has dropped further than one might expect and has some bias to deal with from the fantasy community if not elsewhere. The FACT is that successful white RBs have been pretty much non-existent for many many years. Some folks, maybe a lot of folks, are going to look at that and say "I'm not going to bet against those odds", and let him slide.

Whether that inclination is justified or not is a whole different question, but I do think that is at least part of the phenomenon we are seeing. And I don't see how pointing it out is racist at all.

 
'bigunreal said:
Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious? If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they? Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go. If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload.
While there is no doubt Hillis get downgraded by many because of the stereotypes of white RB's, his durability concern is a separate issue. Hillis did indeed wear down as the season went on. Certain styles of play are more conducive to injury than others. Mike Vick is considered a higher injury risk than Drew Brees. This has nothing do with race but in the fact that Vick's style puts himself at risk more. Peyton Hillis has a rugged running style and doesnt shy away from contact. He is more likely to run someone over than run around them. Hillis was banged up and considered week to week for much of the second half. While he did play all 16 games, his last 5 games, he had only 1 game over 100 yards, didnt break 25 yards receiving, and scored ZERO total TD's. If that isnt slowing down, I dont know what is. The coaches have said they are looking to reduce his workload and he himself said he welcomes that.
 
'Mark Wimer said:
'Clifford said:
'bigmiiiiike said:
Both of these guys were insanely good last year. Neither had done anything prior to last year. Neither were uber-studs in college with mega hype coming from NFL scouts. Both were seemingly in RBBC situations heading into last season, with their respective teams drafting RBs in the second round. Both of their RBBC rookie mates got injured, leaving both Foster and Hillis with a large % of their teams touches.

These guys seem very similar to me. However, the general vibes I get from the FF community is that Hillis will lose carries to Hardesty, and will not produce close to what he did last year. Yet, I don't really see anyone calling for Foster to slow down significantly, nor anyone calling for Tate to steal touches. I'm not even particularly high on Hillis, but I find it hard to see why he is getting the "one year wonder" label, and Foster is taken #1 overall in many drafts. Can the SP help make sense of this for me?
Imagine Peyton Hillis. Now imagine if he were black.
Racism is not appropriate on this board. Enjoy your vacation.
Mark/mods - Under any and specifically Webster's definition of "racism" this comment would not qualify.If you are going to ban any comments that contains a whiff of what might be racist you are going to need a lot more police for the boards IMO. I don't think you want the moderators to be making judgment calls on something so far from accepted usage or divining intent from every poster in this community.

PVH

 
Just getting in on the end of this one. Knowing Mark, I know that racism is something Mark takes seriously and I'm sure he didn't see the comment as it was meant to be. I'd rather us be overly sensitive to comments perceived to be racist than the other way around. But this one doesn't seem like a big deal.

Please get the discussion back to Football. Thanks.

J

 
'bigunreal said:
Race is the giant elephant in the room whenever Hillis is discussed. So, it's "racist" for someone to point out the obvious? If you don't think the absurd mantra being chanted about Hillis being "overworked" and desperately needing someone to split carries with is connected to the fact he is the first successful white RB in the NFL in some 25 years, then you are pitifully naive. Hillis had far fewer carries than many smaller backs in the NFL last season. Why doesn't someone campaign for the Ravens to reduce the workload of tiny Ray Rice? Surely a back of that size must be super "overworked," if Hillis was. The same goes for Frank Gore, and MJD. But, no one lobbies for a back to split carries with them, do they? Hillis was on the verge of a superlative season, playing on a horrid offense that featured no real starting QB, and no other skill position starter who would start for any other team. He played through a painful injury the last few weeks of the season, and this lowered his ypc and left the impression that he was "worn down" in the minds of so many who were just waiting for any reason to move him back to fullback, where white RBs are inevitably forced to go. If you think race doesn't play a role here, please tell me the last time that ANY young RB put up the numbers Hillis did, and almost immediately the talking heads and fans alike were demanding that the team-which has huge holes everywhere else-reduce his workload.
While there is no doubt Hillis get downgraded by many because of the stereotypes of white RB's, his durability concern is a separate issue. Hillis did indeed wear down as the season went on. Certain styles of play are more conducive to injury than others. Mike Vick is considered a higher injury risk than Drew Brees. This has nothing do with race but in the fact that Vick's style puts himself at risk more. Peyton Hillis has a rugged running style and doesnt shy away from contact. He is more likely to run someone over than run around them. Hillis was banged up and considered week to week for much of the second half. While he did play all 16 games, his last 5 games, he had only 1 game over 100 yards, didnt break 25 yards receiving, and scored ZERO total TD's. If that isnt slowing down, I dont know what is. The coaches have said they are looking to reduce his workload and he himself said he welcomes that.
someone mentioned that he was hurt for the last few weeks and played through the injury....I don't know, I did not really follow him closely as I did not own him last year.....if that is the case, there may be a difference between being "worn down" and just not able to play at 100% because of an injury....anyway...in some ways, a lighter workload could actually mean more production....I think what the OP is wondering is why is his dropoff anticipated to be so much more than Foster.....if it's Hardesty, then I would think Tate coming back is almost the same....I hope this continues on into the season as I would love to have Hillis as my RB2...
 
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3 things about Hillis.

First, while Hillis was the #2 fantasy RB last season (based on total yards & TDs), he was part of a pack near the top rather than being set apart from everyone else. Looking at ppg, he was fantasy RB4, within 1 ppg of RB9 and within 2 ppg of RB13. In yards per game, he was RB9 and within 3 yd/g of RB12. Foster was insanely good - as far ahead of Hillis as Hillis was ahead of Fred Jackson. He was the clear-cut #1, over 10 yd/g and 3 fpt/g ahead of #2. In some ways, putting Foster at RB2 is a bigger rejection of last year's stats than putting Hillis at RB13.

Second, there are several reasons to think his workload will drop, including his late-season decline, his running style, his team's comments about sharing the load at RB, and Hardesty's return. And while Hillis played well, it wasn't the kind of elite performance that makes coaches reluctant to take a player off the field (4.4 ypc, 7.8 ypr, 8 fumbles). Foster does have Tate coming back, but he had better numbers (4.9 ypc, 9.2 ypr, 3 fumbles) and the team seems to want to keep him as the workhorse.

Third, his team is bad. It's rare to have a top fantasy back on a bad team. A bad offense limits the RB's opportunities, especially his chances for touchdowns. Hillis isn't likely to score 13 TDs again this year. Foster is on a much better team, with a much better offense.

 
3 things about Hillis.

First, while Hillis was the #2 fantasy RB last season (based on total yards & TDs), he was part of a pack near the top rather than being set apart from everyone else. Looking at ppg, he was fantasy RB4, within 1 ppg of RB9 and within 2 ppg of RB13. In yards per game, he was RB9 and within 3 yd/g of RB12. Foster was insanely good - as far ahead of Hillis as Hillis was ahead of Fred Jackson. He was the clear-cut #1, over 10 yd/g and 3 fpt/g ahead of #2. In some ways, putting Foster at RB2 is a bigger rejection of last year's stats than putting Hillis at RB13.

Second, there are several reasons to think his workload will drop, including his late-season decline, his running style, his team's comments about sharing the load at RB, and Hardesty's return. And while Hillis played well, it wasn't the kind of elite performance that makes coaches reluctant to take a player off the field (4.4 ypc, 7.8 ypr, 8 fumbles). Foster does have Tate coming back, but he had better numbers (4.9 ypc, 9.2 ypr, 3 fumbles) and the team seems to want to keep him as the workhorse.

Third, his team is bad. It's rare to have a top fantasy back on a bad team. A bad offense limits the RB's opportunities, especially his chances for touchdowns. Hillis isn't likely to score 13 TDs again this year. Foster is on a much better team, with a much better offense.
nice post....some good stuff in there....however, concerning the bolded and some other things, the Browns schedule this year looks pretty nice outside of the two matchups with PIT and BAL....they get the NFC West and some other nice matchups (at least what it looks like now), so I think there are still some fantasy points to be had in CLE and I expect Hillis to get a bunch of them...
 
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3 things about Hillis.First, while Hillis was the #2 fantasy RB last season (based on total yards & TDs), he was part of a pack near the top rather than being set apart from everyone else. Looking at ppg, he was fantasy RB4, within 1 ppg of RB9 and within 2 ppg of RB13. In yards per game, he was RB9 and within 3 yd/g of RB12. Foster was insanely good - as far ahead of Hillis as Hillis was ahead of Fred Jackson. He was the clear-cut #1, over 10 yd/g and 3 fpt/g ahead of #2. In some ways, putting Foster at RB2 is a bigger rejection of last year's stats than putting Hillis at RB13.
Hi ZWK,Just a note to say great point. Not just on this but on the bigger picture. "Always consider the scale" is an important thing to remember.Say you have 5 players.#1 posts 90 points#2 posts 89 points#3 posts 88 points#4 posts 87 points#5 posts 25 points#1 through #4 are essentially the same guy. #5 is radically different. There is a little difference between #3 and #4 but huge difference between #4 and #4. Now you look at this and it's elementary. But I see lots of smart people miss it.J
 
For my league on CBS -

Foster in 2010 - 349 pts, 2011 projections - 289

Hillis in 2010 - 255 pts, 2011 projections - 195

Foster's 2011 - 82.8% of his 2010 stats

Hillis' 2010 - 76.4% of his 2010 stats

I agree and expect that both regress (especially in projections) but I'm still kinda surprised that Hillis is projected to regress more. I feel like Foster can regress at a higher % vs 2010 without huge changes in circumstances while still being the clear cut #1 back. Sure, Hillis is more likely to be banged up this year but he was banged up last year too. I'm not saying Hillis > Foster by any means but I would guess that Hillis regresses less from 2010.

 
For my league on CBS -Foster in 2010 - 349 pts, 2011 projections - 289Hillis in 2010 - 255 pts, 2011 projections - 195Foster's 2011 - 82.8% of his 2010 statsHillis' 2010 - 76.4% of his 2010 statsI agree and expect that both regress (especially in projections) but I'm still kinda surprised that Hillis is projected to regress more. I feel like Foster can regress at a higher % vs 2010 without huge changes in circumstances while still being the clear cut #1 back. Sure, Hillis is more likely to be banged up this year but he was banged up last year too. I'm not saying Hillis > Foster by any means but I would guess that Hillis regresses less from 2010.
I'm not great with numbers, but Foster's year was so unbelievable, wouldn't it seem that even if he has what we would consider a very good/solid year that he might in fact regress the most since the bar he set last year was so high....not sure if that makes sense the way I am saying it.... :loco:
 
I mean, did no one else get that it was a (pretty hilarious) reference to A Time To Kill? McConaughey's closing argument? C'mon Shark Pool, I expect better pop culture knowledge.

The reasons for a decline in Hillis have already been stated here, but I think the 2 YPR difference and half-yard per carry difference between the two is hugely noteworthy. That kinda thing can separate Really Good from Elite.

 

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