Foster, McCoy or Rice (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

If I had to draft today, here is how I'd rank them;

1. McCoy - Safest bet of the 3 IMO. His offense is basically unchanged and so is his role in it.

2. Foster - Still a stud but has Tate waiting in the shadows and I don't like the losses on the Oline.

3. Rice - Plan and simply, he is a hold out risk right now and the margin between these 3 is narrow enough that I place him at the bottom because of it. If he were to sign tomorrow, I'm move him to #1.

 

[RalphMouth]

BUMP-

I'm still having doubts on Foster as the #1 overall pick and am seriously

thinking Rice since he's been resigned. Talk me off the ledge.

 

[Ghost Rider]

It's hard to argue against any of these three guys. None of them stand out as clearly ahead of the others, so them going 1-2-3 in any order makes sense to me. McCoy isn't getting the love for that top spot that the other two are (he seems to be the consensus number 3, just below the other two), but I see no reason why McCoy can't be as good as last year (although I think his yardage goes up while his TDs come down a bit, but his overall point total is pretty similar), especially if the Eagles are better as a team this year than they were last year.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I'm starting to think Rice. His situation on offense is the same or better. I see less tds for McCoy. Vick should have had more last year. Foster lost two starters on his line and has Tate and the weakest passing game of the three (sorry Shaub and AJ). Only concern with Rice is his workload wearing him down.

 

[RalphMouth]

Can draft day get here any sooner?

I'm now having a small thought that it might not be such a bad idea

to draft Rodgers. I'm guaranteed Trent Richardson (8th round is keeper round

& I have 1st pick- rookies can't be picked till that round)

So my team could be something like this-

Rodgers

Richardson

Fred Jackson

Roddy White

Victor Cruz

VS

Romo

Foster

Richardson

Julio Jones

Victor Cruz

 

[rizzler]

Can draft day get here any sooner?I'm now having a small thought that it might not be such a bad ideato draft Rodgers. I'm guaranteed Trent Richardson (8th round is keeper round& I have 1st pick- rookies can't be picked till that round)So my team could be something like this-RodgersRichardsonFred JacksonRoddy WhiteVictor CruzVSRomoFosterRichardsonJulio JonesVictor Cruz

team 2 is way sexier

 

[Deamon]

The importance of having the #1 RB is dead.

I could not disagree more.

just based on FBG scoring:The top QB and Top RBs points:the top 5 QBs score so much, regardless of points system. they are the true competitive advantage in FFL now. brees 490rodger 489brady 462staff 433newton 431 eli 366romo 355ryan 350rivers 336sanchez 314vick 292 Rice 302McCoy 282MJD 264Foster 256 Lynch 220turner 217mathews 191ADP 189M.Bush 188Sproles 185To me having one of them, trumps having a top RB, by alot. And to mention they are less likely to get injured.

For 21,000 posts you'd think you would have read an article on VBD by now.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The importance of having the #1 RB is dead.

I could not disagree more.

just based on FBG scoring:The top QB and Top RBs points:the top 5 QBs score so much, regardless of points system. they are the true competitive advantage in FFL now. brees 490rodger 489brady 462staff 433newton 431 eli 366romo 355ryan 350rivers 336sanchez 314vick 292 Rice 302McCoy 282MJD 264Foster 256 Lynch 220turner 217mathews 191ADP 189M.Bush 188Sproles 185To me having one of them, trumps having a top RB, by alot. And to mention they are less likely to get injured.

For 21,000 posts you'd think you would have read an article on VBD by now.

 

[BaBastage]

(snip)the top 5 QBs score so much, regardless of points system. they are the true competitive advantage in FFL now.

brees	490rodger	489brady	462staff	433newton	431	eli	366romo	355ryan	350rivers	336sanchez	314vick	292

To me having one of them, trumps having a top RB, by alot. And to mention they are less likely to get injured.

Expanding on this, the number of points that you select with any given pick is less important that the dropoff between the pick and what will be available at your next pick (or picks, if you're in a serpentine daft and are near one of the corners.)Without getting into specifics, using FBG's projections (for our league, non ppr) for the top 5 QB's average projected points is 390. The average of QB's 7 through 12 is 310, for a dropoff of about 80.For RB's it's 250 and 202 respectively, for a dropoff of 48. For WR's, it's 185 and 164, for a dropoff of about 21.Given this, I would put the importance highest of selecting my QB first, easily, if I can get one of the top 5. The trick is estimating your roster needs, and what you think others' needs will force them to pick before your turn comes again. (you might choose to look at the top 3 available, and a different range for the dropoff, but the principle still applies.)

 

[[icon]]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

Depends totally on scoring of course, but... QB Is exceptionally deep this yearRB Is exceptionally shallow this yearIf you go Rodgers you're likely looking at Steven Jackson / Jamaal Charles / etc as your RB1... pretty much forcing you to go RB/RB.If you go Foster/McCoy/Rice then you're still looking at Cam/Stafford/Rivers/Vick/Romo/Eli/Ryan/Peyton/BEn/etc...... IMO I could only consider going QB after the big 3 RB's are off the board this year...and possibly even Ryan Matthews...particularly in PPR leagues with 4pt Passing TDs. Now, in 6pt passing TD leagues with no PPR, it gets a little stickier.

 

[Run It Up]

Rice, but this year imo is purely preference.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

Depends totally on scoring of course, but... QB Is exceptionally deep this yearRB Is exceptionally shallow this yearIf you go Rodgers you're likely looking at Steven Jackson / Jamaal Charles / etc as your RB1... pretty much forcing you to go RB/RB.If you go Foster/McCoy/Rice then you're still looking at Cam/Stafford/Rivers/Vick/Romo/Eli/Ryan/Peyton/BEn/etc...... IMO I could only consider going QB after the big 3 RB's are off the board this year...and possibly even Ryan Matthews...particularly in PPR leagues with 4pt Passing TDs. Now, in 6pt passing TD leagues with no PPR, it gets a little stickier.

As I said earlier in the thread, alot depends on your scoring and your league mates tendencies. In most of my local re-drafts Ill be taking Rodgers #1. Best Ball PPR? not taking Rodger.In a recent Dyno start up I had #1 - took Rodgers.If you know that your league waits on QBs and you can snag Cam or Stafford at the 2/3 turn then by all means, snag the RB. No rules is etched in stone. I was talking about most of the time what I would do

 

[RalphMouth]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

Depends totally on scoring of course, but... QB Is exceptionally deep this yearRB Is exceptionally shallow this yearIf you go Rodgers you're likely looking at Steven Jackson / Jamaal Charles / etc as your RB1... pretty much forcing you to go RB/RB.If you go Foster/McCoy/Rice then you're still looking at Cam/Stafford/Rivers/Vick/Romo/Eli/Ryan/Peyton/BEn/etc...... IMO I could only consider going QB after the big 3 RB's are off the board this year...and possibly even Ryan Matthews...particularly in PPR leagues with 4pt Passing TDs. Now, in 6pt passing TD leagues with no PPR, it gets a little stickier.

As I said earlier in the thread, alot depends on your scoring and your league mates tendencies. In most of my local re-drafts Ill be taking Rodgers #1. Best Ball PPR? not taking Rodger.In a recent Dyno start up I had #1 - took Rodgers.If you know that your league waits on QBs and you can snag Cam or Stafford at the 2/3 turn then by all means, snag the RB. No rules is etched in stone. I was talking about most of the time what I would do

My league snatches QBs early. It's so crazy I feel that if I wait till the 5th round Rothlesberger and Palmer will be best available. Drafting on the elbow this year stinks. I feel like it may be better to reach at times & start a run than get caught with my pants down.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I'm starting to think Rice. His situation on offense is the same or better. I see less tds for McCoy. Vick should have had more last year. Foster lost two starters on his line and has Tate and the weakest passing game of the three (sorry Shaub and AJ). Only concern with Rice is his workload wearing him down.

McCoy likely won't score 20 times again, but I don't think it will be because Vick vultures a bunch away from him. The Eagles have said that they want Vick to take less punishment, so I wouldn't expect a lot of QB sneaks and runs inside the 10 like they did two years ago.

 

[grateful zed]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

im agreeing. rbs get hurt.

 

[NJ]

Serious question. Is there any study that's been done or any data that shows exactly how often/how much more likely a RB is to have a serious injury vs. a QB? I know that its widely considered that "RBs get hurt" and "QBs are the safe pick" and it may just be common sense because their careers are so much shorter, but I'd be curious to see some actual data to back this up. I mean I look at guys like Rice, Foster, McCoy, CJ2K, MJD, etc. and they've got over a dozen seasons between them as starting RBs and I think I can count on 1 hand the number of games these guys have missed combined. Then I look at the consensus top QBs and you've got Brady (missed an entire season with a knee injury), Stafford ended his first 2 seasons on IR missing almost 20 games and then plays 16 games last year and all of a sudden he's a "safe pick"? Rodgers has had multiple conconcussions and I've seen reports saying he could be 1 hit away from retirement and even if that is an exageration, given the way the NFL is about concussions recently I think he's definitely a big risk to miss serious time with his next concussion, yet he's universally considered the safest pick in the draft this year? Plenty of other guys that have been consensus top 10 QBs in ADP the last few years like Vick, Romo, Schaub, etc. have all missed significant time with injuries.

I realize there are a ton of other questions marks regarding all of the RBs going AFTER Foster/Rice/McCoy which makes guys like Rodgers/Brady/Brees safer than the rest of the top 10 RBs, but for those suggesting taking QBs over Foster/Rice/McCoy purely because of injury concerns, I'm just curious if there is any way to actually quantify just how much "safer" taking a QB over those guys really is?

 

[Todem]

The importance of having the #1 RB is dead.

I could not disagree more.

This year ore than any I can remember it is so important. Having a #1 PPR stud at RB is a dying breed. I took Rice in one redraft I had the #1 and I just drew the Ace in my local redraft and plan on taking Rice again. He is about as sure a thing in PPR there is. McCoy is also another tempting one. Although Arian Foster is also a major stud.....I don't think any of those three can be the wrong pick.Calvin......Madden Curse....nuff said.Aarron Rodgers? If it is 6 point per passing TD league maybe. But there is so much value at QB now. The league has become pass happy. You can get value later.

 

[meatwad1]

I would go with Rice...he seems like he is super durable and I can actually see their offense improving this year, remember that TSmith is poised to break out, and also remember that Rice was limited in his touches his first three years. I think this is the year he blows up.

As far as injury concerns go, I am leery of qbs because of the new concussion deal...if they get one, they for sure sit for one to two weeks. They also get banged up, which affects their production...last year i had Vick and Rivers and thought I was set. Not the case, both got injured and were never the same qbs. That also happened to brees one year. If I am drafting 1, 2, 3 in a ppr, i am for sure getting one of those three guys.

 

[tjnc09]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

Depends totally on scoring of course, but... QB Is exceptionally deep this yearRB Is exceptionally shallow this yearIf you go Rodgers you're likely looking at Steven Jackson / Jamaal Charles / etc as your RB1... pretty much forcing you to go RB/RB.If you go Foster/McCoy/Rice then you're still looking at Cam/Stafford/Rivers/Vick/Romo/Eli/Ryan/Peyton/BEn/etc...... IMO I could only consider going QB after the big 3 RB's are off the board this year...and possibly even Ryan Matthews...particularly in PPR leagues with 4pt Passing TDs. Now, in 6pt passing TD leagues with no PPR, it gets a little stickier.

How exactly are RBs exceptionally shallow this year?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

Depends totally on scoring of course, but... QB Is exceptionally deep this yearRB Is exceptionally shallow this yearIf you go Rodgers you're likely looking at Steven Jackson / Jamaal Charles / etc as your RB1... pretty much forcing you to go RB/RB.If you go Foster/McCoy/Rice then you're still looking at Cam/Stafford/Rivers/Vick/Romo/Eli/Ryan/Peyton/BEn/etc...... IMO I could only consider going QB after the big 3 RB's are off the board this year...and possibly even Ryan Matthews...particularly in PPR leagues with 4pt Passing TDs. Now, in 6pt passing TD leagues with no PPR, it gets a little stickier.

How exactly are RBs exceptionally shallow this year?

The number of RBs who are not in RBBC or specialist situations is low. How many RBs are 3 down backs now? Hell, even Foster has to worry about splitting with Tate. Rice, McCoy, DMac, Lynch . . . who else?

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Aaron Rodgers and dont look back

Depends totally on scoring of course, but... QB Is exceptionally deep this yearRB Is exceptionally shallow this yearIf you go Rodgers you're likely looking at Steven Jackson / Jamaal Charles / etc as your RB1... pretty much forcing you to go RB/RB.If you go Foster/McCoy/Rice then you're still looking at Cam/Stafford/Rivers/Vick/Romo/Eli/Ryan/Peyton/BEn/etc...... IMO I could only consider going QB after the big 3 RB's are off the board this year...and possibly even Ryan Matthews...particularly in PPR leagues with 4pt Passing TDs. Now, in 6pt passing TD leagues with no PPR, it gets a little stickier.

How exactly are RBs exceptionally shallow this year?

The number of RBs who are not in RBBC or specialist situations is low. How many RBs are 3 down backs now? Hell, even Foster has to worry about splitting with Tate. Rice, McCoy, DMac, Lynch . . . who else?

You have a way better chance of grabbing 1 stud at each position if you draft a stud RB with your first pick. Get a guy like Rice then a top WR (a julio jones for example) and wait a bit on a top QB (guys like M.Ryan are still there in the 3rd to 5th rds). I love having one stud at each position as opposed to grabbing a couple of studs at one position and drafting average players as starters at the other positions you didnt address early.

 

[T with T]

IMO the top QBs are less risk adverse than the top RBs and the advantage is greater.

I cannot comprehend why people take huge question mark guys... MJD

1,389 - 14 (Taylor still in town)

1,765 - 16

1,641 - 7

1,980 - 11

Age 27. Missed only two games in 64 contests. Averages 48 catches.

yea pretty dumb statement but I think the guy was referring to the holdout of MJD rather then the stats. either way it's stupid.

 

[T with T]

- plays in a terrible offense.

Thats pretty damn standard for MJDs time in Jacksonville.They were 32nd in offense last year. DEAD LAST.He still had 1,980 11 TDs, 4.7 per carry and 43 catches.

and the offense is actually better this year. haha dumb thing to say Butcher. They added Robinson and Blackmon and Gabbert with a year of experience under his belt.

 

[Sabertooth]

I go Foster until something is proven otherwise. He has completely shed the injury prone label IMO and all you have to do is grab Ben Tate just in case Foster goes down, and then you have a top 15 back anyway. Pretty easy choice in my opinion.

The problem with this is that you feel compelled almost automatically to add Tate in what the 8th round? You can handcuff McCoy or Rice much much later.

 

[Sabertooth]

Does being in a 6pt per passing touchdown league change it?

 

[Dancing Bear]

Foster is it hands down.

He has led the league in Fantasy Points per game for two years running.

He is the premier RB in a prolific Offense, and he will see the ball plain and simple. Tate is not going to take any carries. Look what he did to Baltimore in the playoffs!

He actually was better last year than the year before with 142.9 yards per game! No one else is even close!

Rice was 20 yards behind per game.

McCoy was 35 yards behind per game.

NOT EVEN CLOSE!

 

[VibeBox]

foster isn't going to be the #1 RB this year, imo. there are questions on the o-line, and he lost vickers (who even made hillis look good). if you have faith in shaub at qb then that's another ding against, as they're likely to mix it up a bit more than last year without. add to that the fact that everyone knows if tate was added to mix more he would flourish and cut into the carries, and i just don't think i could take him #1 overall. (don't get me wrong, he's still great and gonna be top 5)

mccoy is probably gonna see fewer carries and fewer tds this year, but still should be fine. however he's surrounded by talent.

rice is the ultimate workhorse right now and flacco will never be the qb baltimore hopes he will be. i'll be taking rice #1 as the surest bet at high production

 

[Sabertooth]

foster isn't going to be the #1 RB this year, imo. there are questions on the o-line, and he lost vickers (who even made hillis look good). if you have faith in shaub at qb then that's another ding against, as they're likely to mix it up a bit more than last year without. add to that the fact that everyone knows if tate was added to mix more he would flourish and cut into the carries, and i just don't think i could take him #1 overall. (don't get me wrong, he's still great and gonna be top 5)mccoy is probably gonna see fewer carries and fewer tds this year, but still should be fine. however he's surrounded by talent.rice is the ultimate workhorse right now and flacco will never be the qb baltimore hopes he will be. i'll be taking rice #1 as the surest bet at high production

I have Rice and Foster really close. McCoy lost his best offensive lineman too.

 

[Dancing Bear]

How can you really question Foster's ability to perform?

Look what he did without a QB or a WR1 for more than half the year last year; let's remember that he was without both Matt Schaub [out week 10] and Andre Johnson [out off and on, but missed 9 games].

 

[rizzler]

How can you really question Foster's ability to perform?

"Sharks" have an unnatural yearning to want to be wrong, year after year, until they finally hit the nail on the head 6yrs later

 

[Corporate]

Foster is it hands down.He has led the league in Fantasy Points per game for two years running.He is the premier RB in a prolific Offense, and he will see the ball plain and simple. Tate is not going to take any carries. Look what he did to Baltimore in the playoffs!He actually was better last year than the year before with 142.9 yards per game! No one else is even close!Rice was 20 yards behind per game.McCoy was 35 yards behind per game.NOT EVEN CLOSE!

I guess your league scores different from mine (which may be the case), but here are the stats for last year btwn Rice and Foster:Rice: 1364 rushing; 12 Rush TDs; 76 receptions for 704 yds and 3 TDsFoster: 1224 rush; 10 Rush TDs; 53 receptions for 617 and 2 TDsSo I don't know how Foster scored more Fantasy Points per game. While I don't draft solely according to previous year performance and my league gives .5ppr I would take Rice over Foster. With that said, if Rice was gone I would be completely content with Foster.

 

[steelerfan1]

I guess your league scores different from mine (which may be the case), but here are the stats for last year btwn Rice and Foster:Rice: 1364 rushing; 12 Rush TDs; 76 receptions for 704 yds and 3 TDsFoster: 1224 rush; 10 Rush TDs; 53 receptions for 617 and 2 TDsSo I don't know how Foster scored more Fantasy Points per game. While I don't draft solely according to previous year performance and my league gives .5ppr I would take Rice over Foster. With that said, if Rice was gone I would be completely content with Foster.

foster missed didn't play in 3 games though.very close with foster and rice, but foster had a 2 point edge per game lastyear for us.

 

[LHUCKS]

I like Rice, because he is the safest IMHO.

Foster has the most upside and McCoy is in a great system.

I'll take Rice because IMHO he's the least likely to miss games.

 

[strong]

At the moment, Foster has 40 carries inside the 20. (The next highest is Ridley with 30.) After 7 games, Foster's on pace for 91 red zone carries...

For some context, last year's leader in that category was Turner with 60. The ten year high belongs to Ladanian Tomlinson with 85 in 2004.

Yikes. They're force feeding him the ball down there.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I'm starting to think Rice. His situation on offense is the same or better. I see less tds for McCoy. Vick should have had more last year. Foster lost two starters on his line and has Tate and the weakest passing game of the three (sorry Shaub and AJ). Only concern with Rice is his workload wearing him down.

So far I am glad I changed my mind on the logic in this post and actually drafted Foster over both Rice and McCoy in two leagues.