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you'd be shocked if he averages 50 rushing yards per game over a full season? why?
75 yds rush/30 rec per game seems pretty reasonable, even sharing carries where Spiller averages 50/20.You would think 12 TDs is reasonable but they throw A LOT at the goal line.
Not even close.
As much as I initially thought this exact thing and groaned, perhaps this isn't the worst thing in the world for Spiller. I still believe he is an elite talent, but is he really a feature back? probably better if he only gets 8-12 carries a game along with a few catches, he will still be a top 25 back with that amount of touches.Everything considered though, Fjax certainly deserves to get paid and im happy for him
Spiller is a big play RB who averaged 5.24 YPC last year.Reggie bush barely averaged 4 YPC until this past season, his 6th season in the league.Spiller showed more in year 2 then bush has shown in 6 seasons.
I can't seem to find a way to pull good historical facts, but these are the 31 year-old with 1150 rushing seasons (Obviously, I tried to go down to the 800 range, but could not):Curtis MartinTiki BarberWalter PaytonThomas JonesJohn RigginsRicky WattersJames BrooksAll of these guys are in the HoF or "Hall of Very Good", and none of them were coming off a broken tibia going into that season. I just don't see how people are casually throwing around 12 TD projections for a guy who is coming off a major injury and is 31...hey, it could be done, but I will take the under on this guy every day of the week.
It was actually a fractured fibula (the tibia is a weight-bearing bone whereas the fibula is not).
Why? Because Fred got an $8 million/2 year extension? Because at the price, he isn't guaranteed a starting job by any means. Remember, he was a top 10 pick before they redid the rookie salary cap. Spiller's deal averages $5 million/year.Spiller will get his chance one day
indeed.i think this is what you are looking for.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1920&year_max=2012&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=31&age_max=99&draft_round_min=0&draft_round_max=99&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_qb=Y&pos_is_rb=Y&pos_is_wr=Y&pos_is_te=Y&pos_is_rec=Y&pos_is_t=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_ol=Y&pos_is_dt=Y&pos_is_de=Y&pos_is_dl=Y&pos_is_ilb=Y&pos_is_olb=Y&pos_is_lb=Y&pos_is_cb=Y&pos_is_s=Y&pos_is_db=Y&pos_is_k=Y&pos_is_p=Y&c1stat=rush_yds&c1comp=gt&c1val=800&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=rush_ydsanyway, i wouldnt classify his injury as major at all in terms of future problems. shouldnt effect him at all going forward.
Jackson didn't start receiving significant touches until 2008. He might be over 30, but his mileage is not. He's a bit of an outliner for the over 30 rule. I think of it like Ricky Williams, who still looked good after 30 with all his time off to smoke weed.'moderated said:
Yeah, but Fred Jackson is the better player. So there is that.'TheFanatic said:Why? Because Fred got an $8 million/2 year extension? Because at the price, he isn't guaranteed a starting job by any means. Remember, he was a top 10 pick before they redid the rookie salary cap. Spiller's deal averages $5 million/year.Spiller will get his chance one day
I understand the mileage debate. It is a good theory, but in the end it is still just a theory. Lets look at "washed up" Ryan Grant. Grant is two years younger with only 26 more career touches. People aren't bragging about Grant's low miles. Not all players age the same, and Fred has clearly been productive on the wrong side of 30. But to pretend like his skills wont decline in the near future is just burying your head in the sand.
Grant didn't lead the league in yards per carry last year either.Jackson just did that as a 30y
f course his skills will decline, but unless someone is projecting another injury, saying "I'll be shocked if he hits 800 yards rushing" is a ridiculous statement to make.He averaged 93 yards rushing/game last year. His skills are going to fall off a cliff now because he is 1 year older and had about 200 touches last year?
Someone brought up Ryan Grant, and that is a fair comparison, though Grant actually has a good deal less carries to his career and is younger. People seem to not realize or conveniently forget that Fred Jackson did not sit around for 3 years after college taking care of his body like a farmer would veal. He played semi-pro ball. I can't locate his stats for 2004, but in 2005 with the Sioux City Bandits, he had 1770 combined years with 295 total touches (Grant, BTW, has only 863 for his entire career). The next year in NFL Europe, he 184 touches, so I am a little lost on how this man has "little mileage" on his legs. He is at the point in life (age) where RBs break down, he does have more mileage (likely 600+ touches) than anyone seems to want to credit him for, and he is coming off an injury (I would call it major, you call it minor, I think we both agree it is somewhere between a bruised hip and a blown achilles).He also is playing behind a line that exceeded expectations in a big way, and there is a chance they could fall back to original expectations. And finally, they have a first round pick, who regardless of how one-dimensional he is, will get his share. Again, I just don't expect very big things from him, yet a 700 rushing, 10 TD season, could certainly be in the cards...still makes him a good pick; I guess I would ask, what are you expecting from him?BTW, I will say I am "projecting" injury for him based on age. I don't really see a season of more than 14 games.'Aaron Rudnicki said:
there is just as much of a chance that having a healthy Eric Wood for a full season and the addition of Cordy Glenn at tackle will upgrade the run blocking significantly. The schedule should also be easier this year.as for what I'm expecting, 800 yards rushing seems like an absolute floor for him. unless he suffers an injury, I really can't imagine him not hitting that mark.he was better last year, at age 30, than Ryan Grant has ever been in his life.
this is what people thought would happen last year. If Jackson starts off this year like he did last year, Spiller will have trouble getting on the field again.
This line of thinking is outdated. Who is selling Jackson for peanuts? I imagine rebuilding teams, but that is where it ends. Once a back hits a certain age, they become impossible to trade unless you want to lose value on that player. I don't think Jackson will be a top 12 RB next year. I think Spiller eats into his touches more than some Jackson's owners would like to think. Spiller was only seeing about 2 carries a game while Jackson was healthy. I don't see how that number isn't closer to 8-10 this year.
I thought we put the mileage thing to bed. Didn't Dodds or Cecil show some stats that the guys that had consistent and high workloads had a better chance of playing longer in their careers? I'm pretty sure one of those guys did. That guys like LT, Curtis Martin and Emmitt Smith were more likely to play longer than say a Priest Holmes, who was very much like Fred in that he rode the pine before going off.The fact of the matter is this. As we get older, we don't heal as quickly. Low mileage, high mileage, whatever. Someone at 21 bounces back from an injury significantly faster than someone at 31. That has nothing to do with mileage or hits or anything else. That's how the human body works. The notion that low mileage guys can play longer would imply that we could expect them to play until their 36-37 because they had less carries, hits, etc. That's just not the case. Fred is just as likely to hit the wall at 31-32 as a high mileage guy does, if not more so according to that study.The one thing he has going for him is that modern medicine and physical therapy has extended the RB ceiling beyond 30 years old. We see lots of productive guys at 31 and 32 these days that we didn't see in decades past. Fred might be able to be a strong contributor for the first two seasons of what is essentially his three year deal starting from now, but I would bet strong that the guy is only a backup or out of the NFL for that third year, and not making $4 million/year.
the disagreement in this thread has been about his production in 2012.
Is Fred Jackson a name you'd normally put in a list with those guys (save maybe TJ)? I think he's probably due to end up somewhere between the 2 camps in this thread, but you use some of the greatest backs of the last 25 years to justify Fred Jackson's projections? Fred Jackson?
he led the league in yards per carry last year and was a pretty strong MVP candidate. Not sure what pedigree has to do with it if people are going to predict a dropoff for him because "all RBs fall off after they hit 30".he's had a pretty nontraditional career to this point, but that doesn't change the fact that he played like an elite RB last year before suffering a broken leg. I don't think 9 months of rest is going to take him from being elite to a scrub.it's certainly possible that RBs might be able to extend their careers these days more than they ever could in the past due to modern medicine and the increase of RBBC situations.there are a lot of good recent examples of RBs who performed pretty well at age 31. there are others who were out of the league by this point. So, I don't think the evidence is all that compelling in either direction with regard to Jackson's likelihood of success in 2012.
This is how guys his age end up slowing down. I said for years Fred was underrated and under appreciated and he just needed his chance to shine. I think paying him for past performance is a bad deal for the Bills though at his age. And a younger Spiller came in and did quite nicely in Jackson's absence. I hope this is a reasonable contract from the Bills POV.
2 years, $8.7MM that could go up to $11MM if he hits all incentives. $3MM signing bonus.drop in the bucket compared to the money they have been giving people lately. he earned it.
You might want to look deeper.Bush came into the league and was injured early and used sparingly in the first two years.Then in 2008, he averaged 3.8/rush and 8.4 a catch.Then in 2009 he had an "Arrival" year (as most thought at the time) and he averaged 5.6/rush and 7.1 /catch.Spiller came into the league similarly and, in that first year averaged 3.8/rush (same as Reggie), but only 6.5/catch.Last year, spiller had his own "arrival" year (as some think currently) and averaged his 5.2/rush and 6.9/catch.Under similar circumstances, Spiller has actually shown LESS than Bush. They both, at those comparable times of their careers, faced with similar circumstances of being a role palyer with unique skills playing with a RB that would get the heavy lifting. And they both performed similarly, except Reggie had better averages.Now, Bush has had more years in the league so I would buy that CJ Spiller has put up his numbers sooner in his career. Its a bit hard to compare because of the situation at the time, but that's still a consideration.But, overall, the underlying point is that its not a slam dunk that Spiller has "Arrived". We've seen this before. I woudn't go all in on Spiller and I certainly wouldn't say he ahs shown more than Bush, because he hasn't .
262 carries in 2005 with the Bandits (1400+ yards).So, he has has about ~~~~1300 carries in him. He is going on 31, which someone has already shown the infrequency of success at that age.
Bush's "breakout" year you're using was his 4th year in the league on 70 carries. Also Bush wasn't sparingly used his first 2 years, he was used more in those years then any year up until this past one.Bush Year 12006 154/558 for 3.62 YPC2007 157/558 for 3.55 YPC2008 106/404 for 3.81 YPC2009 70/390 for 5.57 YPC2010 36/150 for 4.16 YPC2011 216/1086 for 5.02 YPCBush has been downright awful until this past season. He didn't show anything before 2011 and his breakout year you use was his 4th year on a 70 carry sample.Spiller after year 2 has shown FAR more then Bush showed in his first 2 years where he averaged a putrid 3.57 YPC.Spillers first 2 years = 4.66 YPCBush's first 2 years = 3.57 YPC
