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Sweetness_34

Footballguy
Tony Gonzalez may be a game time decision, but he is expected to play.

Trent Green is back and got some rust out of him last week.

Champ Bailey will follow Gonzo everywhere like he always does (see Gonzo stats against Denver....they are always horrible).

Denver will have 8 in the box most of the game to stop LJ just like they always did to stop Priest.

Reggiew Wayne went off on the #2 CB

What does this all mean? Eddie Kennison will have a great game tomorrow because the Chiefs will need to score (most likely pass) to win and Denver has a weak pass defense, especially with Champ on Gonzo.

Do not believe me yet. Here are Eddie's #s against Denver in a PPR league:

2003 week 14: 3 targets, 3 catches 83 yards 1 TD = 17 pts

2004 week 1: 11 targets, 6 catches, 101 yards = 16 pts

2004 week 15: 8 targets, 7 catches, 101 yards, 2 TDs = 29 pts

2005 week 3: 11 targets, 8 catches, 112 yards = 19 pts

2005 week 13: 5 targets, 4 cathes, 108 yds = 14 pts

17, 16, 29, 19, 14 pts in last 5 games.....what's not to like :banned:

<God I hope this thread does not get bumped tomorrow because he flops and I get called out as a turkey>....what the heck at least I am making a data driven argument here :banned:

 
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the thing about Kinneson is he has a personal vendetta against the Broncos - he feels like he was treated poorly when he was there. Of course, Bronco fans think that Kinneson was at fault in the fallout.

The fact that he has been successfull against my Broncos has always burned me...

 
Will we have to deal with one of these every week now?

"vs. team" stats are bogus; the sample sizes are too small and the teams change too much for them to be meaningful. (Or have you already forgotten the last guy Denver was supposed to shut down?)

 
CalBear said:
Will we have to deal with one of these every week now?"vs. team" stats are bogus; the sample sizes are too small and the teams change too much for them to be meaningful. (Or have you already forgotten the last guy Denver was supposed to shut down?)
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:goodposting: I generally agree regarding the small sample size argument and I still do in this case. But, it definitely leads a little credence to starting him over someone who you might not normally consider in his place. In other words, I wouldn't replace with him with a top 20ish guy, but if I have two or three guys of similar production or forecasted weekly performance, maybe this gives him an edge on who to start. Dodds has him near the 40 WR mark in ppr leagues. I might start him over someone ranked in the 25 to 30 range if I'm consulting those rankings given this new information. So, thanks for putting this together Sweetness.
 
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moleculo said:
the thing about Kinneson is he has a personal vendetta against the Broncos - he feels like he was treated poorly when he was there. Of course, Bronco fans think that Kinneson was at fault in the fallout.The fact that he has been successfull against my Broncos has always burned me...
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treated poorly? he turned his back on the team and quit like a spoiled child.
 
Great post , well thought out and great data.

Here is one you missed though:

2006 week 2: 2 catches 39 yds 0 TD's

I still like your prediction.

 
TOP RECEIVERS PER GAME VS. DENVER THIS YEAR:

(Player/Rec/Yds/TDs)

T. Holt 7 80 0

L. Johnson 5 41 0

D. Gabriel 6 65 1

Musa Smith 6 53 0

R. Moss 5 86 0

J. Jurevicius 4 40 1

R. Wayne 10 138 3

H. Ward 7 127 0

Randal Williams 5 61 0

L. Tomlinson 3 74 1

Denver gave up some big receiving games lately, starting with Reggie Wayne and not counting Oakland because they shut themselves down. You might be onto something with your Kennison pick. Regardless, I'm starting Chambers over Kennison. If Kennison goes off this week, he might make his way back into my line up.

 
bullitt said:
Great post , well thought out and great data.

Here is one you missed though:

2006 week 2: 2 catches 39 yds 0 TD's

I still like your prediction.
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Wasn't week 2 Huards first start?
 
diesel7982 said:
With Gonzo looking healthier, I think Id shy away from Kennison, especially given Trent's situation.
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What is Trents situation? He's been cleared to play for several weeks, had a game already to knock off the rust, and he should be fresh after the extended "vacation". I don't see where the problem is.
 
Nice facts Sweetness. Convincing enough for me to remove Glenn for Kennison for my T'Givin day's football fix. Given Romo seems to like T. O., and Gonzo playing I hope your logic holds. Happy Thanksgiving all! :yes:

 
diesel7982 said:
With Gonzo looking healthier, I think Id shy away from Kennison, especially given Trent's situation.
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Actually with Gonzo starting, that only helps Eddie since Champ will be on Gonzo like he always is....Champ plays against Gates and Gonzo. Shanny likes to shut these 2 guys down.Here are Gonzo's stats in those exact 5 games that I showed Eddie's stats from6 catches 73 yds2 catches 17 yds3 catches 44 yds5 catches 29 yds1 catch 25 yds 1 TD
 
bullitt said:
Great post , well thought out and great data.

Here is one you missed though:

2006 week 2: 2 catches 39 yds 0 TD's

I still like your prediction.
Click to expand...
Yes i intentionally left it out (sorry should have said that in first post) but that was for 2 reasons. a) 1st game for Huard

b) Hermie played very conservatively on the road and Denver was playing it conservative too (9-6 game was final score I think).

 
moleculo said:
the thing about Kinneson is he has a personal vendetta against the Broncos - he feels like he was treated poorly when he was there. Of course, Bronco fans think that Kinneson was at fault in the fallout.The fact that he has been successfull against my Broncos has always burned me...
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Maybe this is the day he finally cools off against Denver, but the history is really hard to ignore anymore.
 
Thinking of benching MeShawn for Kennison. I don't get NFL network here so I can't watch the game :cry: . Washington is horrible against the pass though. Tough call.

 
flooredyas said:
Nice facts Sweetness. Convincing enough for me to remove Glenn for Kennison for my T'Givin day's football fix. Given Romo seems to like T. O., and Gonzo playing I hope your logic holds. Happy Thanksgiving all! :yes:
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ouch :loco: i wouldn't have put kennison in over glenn regardless of situational stats.
 
jerseys finest said:
flooredyas said:
Nice facts Sweetness. Convincing enough for me to remove Glenn for Kennison for my T'Givin day's football fix. Given Romo seems to like T. O., and Gonzo playing I hope your logic holds. Happy Thanksgiving all! :yes:
Click to expand...
ouch :loco: i wouldn't have put kennison in over glenn regardless of situational stats.
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Posturing for a better rookie pick in my dynasty obviously. Tiki's overwealming performance last week knocked me out of playoff contention. Just the way the year has gone for me.
 
SKribbles said:
flooredyas said:
Nice facts Sweetness. Convincing enough for me to remove Glenn for Kennison for my T'Givin day's football fix. Given Romo seems to like T. O., and Gonzo playing I hope your logic holds. Happy Thanksgiving all! :yes:
Click to expand...
:lmao:
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I have Kennison in 3 of my leagues and this thread almost convinced me to start him... good thing I didn't. Whew!
 
Sweetness you owe me the 200 entry fee I had to pay. I needed to win the last two games to make the playoffs and thanks to you I am not going to make it. Please IM me and I will give you my paypal info. Thanks in advance.

:wall:

 
Sorry folks :bag:

This just shows how bad the FF Gods can be to you. Kennison got at least 5 targets and he missed a TD in the 1st quarter, but I think Green is not back to his usual self yet. :rant:

 
Props to Sweetness for at least attempting to back up his point with stats.

Some posters just say "Start Musa Smith. I have a feeling he is going to go off."

Sweet was wrong. Really wrong, but at least he tried.....

 
flooredyas said:
Nice facts Sweetness. Convincing enough for me to remove Glenn for Kennison for my T'Givin day's football fix. Given Romo seems to like T. O., and Gonzo playing I hope your logic holds. Happy Thanksgiving all! :yes:
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Ouch. :topcat:
 
Sweetness_34 said:
Sorry folks :bag: This just shows how bad the FF Gods can be to you. Kennison got at least 5 targets and he missed a TD in the 1st quarter, but I think Green is not back to his usual self yet. :rant:
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I salute you for making a call. This just shows why we shouldn't get so darned emotional about this silly hobby of ours. Anything can happen on any given play, and we have no control over it, and it is generally pretty darn difficult to predict just about anything.
 
Courtjester said:
Props to Sweetness for at least attempting to back up his point with stats.Some posters just say "Start Musa Smith. I have a feeling he is going to go off."Sweet was wrong. Really wrong, but at least he tried.....
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:goodposting: At least the guy had some good numbers. This type of research should be encouraged.Ironically it's the fact that his reasoning was so solid that probably lead more people to following his advice and getting burned. But those are the breaks.
 
the rover said:
moleculo said:
the thing about Kinneson is he has a personal vendetta against the Broncos - he feels like he was treated poorly when he was there. Of course, Bronco fans think that Kinneson was at fault in the fallout.The fact that he has been successfull against my Broncos has always burned me...
Click to expand...
treated poorly? he turned his back on the team and quit like a spoiled child.
Click to expand...
That's the way I remember it too. I agree with moleculo that it burns me every time he has success against Denver.
flooredyas said:
Nice facts Sweetness. Convincing enough for me to remove Glenn for Kennison for my T'Givin day's football fix. Given Romo seems to like T. O., and Gonzo playing I hope your logic holds. Happy Thanksgiving all! :yes:
Click to expand...
:doh: Doh! You didn't really did you?
 
JetsWillWin said:
Courtjester said:
Props to Sweetness for at least attempting to back up his point with stats.Some posters just say "Start Musa Smith. I have a feeling he is going to go off."Sweet was wrong. Really wrong, but at least he tried.....
Click to expand...
:goodposting: At least the guy had some good numbers. This type of research should be encouraged.Ironically it's the fact that his reasoning was so solid that probably lead more people to following his advice and getting burned. But those are the breaks.
Click to expand...
Actually, I gotta agree here. I was looking for a reason to bench Kennison for another one of my fringe WR3s...like Welker today or Bruce on Sunday. I was aware of his past success against Denver and thought that the Week 2 game, with Huard in for his first start, was an anomaly. Those really are the breaks.Keep up the good work, Sweetness.
 
Mr. Pink said:
JetsWillWin said:
Courtjester said:
Props to Sweetness for at least attempting to back up his point with stats.Some posters just say "Start Musa Smith. I have a feeling he is going to go off."Sweet was wrong. Really wrong, but at least he tried.....
Click to expand...
:goodposting: At least the guy had some good numbers. This type of research should be encouraged.Ironically it's the fact that his reasoning was so solid that probably lead more people to following his advice and getting burned. But those are the breaks.
Click to expand...
Actually, I gotta agree here. I was looking for a reason to bench Kennison for another one of my fringe WR3s...like Welker today or Bruce on Sunday. I was aware of his past success against Denver and thought that the Week 2 game, with Huard in for his first start, was an anomaly. Those really are the breaks.Keep up the good work, Sweetness.
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I too got "burned" by this thread, using it as the final tool in trying to decide between 3 fringe WR3s (Kennison, Cochery, Bryant). It was a nice piece of info that unfortunately didn't pan out. He got some targets but didn't make the catches for us, I mean for the Chiefs. Now if Bryant or Crotchety crap out then it will actually turn out to be the right choice. So I got that going for me. And LT.
 
simmonjm said:
Sweetness you owe me the 200 entry fee I had to pay. I needed to win the last two games to make the playoffs and thanks to you I am not going to make it. Please IM me and I will give you my paypal info. Thanks in advance.

:wall:

[/quote

:ptts: My first point to the shirt :banned:
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