Fun With Defensive Stats 2009 (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

I figured I’d resurrect some of the stat manipulations we did last season in blog form over the next few weeks, mostly for fun, but also to see if there’s anything that can be gleaned from a deeper look at last season’s stats. There’s a lot of noise in most defensive stats, but we’ve generated some interesting rate stats in recent seasons that help differentiate performances that are likely to be more repeatable than others.

I’m planning to look at some tackle rate stats in the first few posts, then move on to discuss last season’s tackle opportunity numbers, revisit the DB issues from last season, then maybe hit some consistency data among other things. I’ll work on any requests if you have them. I’m going to try to keep the posts brief, but y’all know how that goes.

I’ll also be adding links to new posts in this post to keep it a little more organized. Comments, input and suggestions are appreciated, as always.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Percentage of Team Solo Tackles Made

Last winter, struck by the huge recent performances of youngsters like Patrick Willis, Jonathan Vilma and DeMeco Ryans and the huge second half just turned in by David Harris, I wanted to see if there was a way to manipulate the tackle data to determine if the performances were legitimate All-Pro efforts or partially a product of a target-rich environment and/or shaky supporting cast. This post (from last January) and the following discussion was inspired by something Football Outsiders does in their summer annual, looking at how often a given player makes a defensive play. FO considers all defensive plays; I stripped it down to the rate at which a linebacker made a solo tackle for his team. For example, Patrick Willis accounted for 15.62% of the solo tackles his team made in 2007.

Unfortunately, like so many things in defensive football, it’s not useful as a stand alone stat. It’s got to be taken in context. Unless you can find a legitimate reason why a given linebacker’s huge percentage of team solos was related to a horrible surrounding cast, there’s probably something in his scheme and/or skill set that’s driving his big number. A big percentage accompanied by horrible tackle opportunity should prompt a closer look at that linebacker’s seemingly low solo tackle number. A linebacker with a big solo tackle number, poor team solo percentage and above-average tackle opportunity should raise concerns that the big season may not be repeatable. And so on.

Before we get to some 2008 analysis, though, let’s take a look at the 2008 leaderboard and reset the all-time rank list (well, from 2003 forward anyway).

Top 10 2008 Linebackers Ranked By Percentage Of Total Team Tackles Made

1 Patrick Willis 13.12% 2 London Fletcher 12.78% 3 Jon Beason 12.69% 4 Jerod Mayo 12.53% 5 Barrett Ruud 12.38% 6 Channing Crowder* 12.21% 7 Jonathan Vilma 11.56% 8 D.J. Williams* 11.47% 9 James Farrior 11.35%10 Kirk Morrison 11.31%*Solo tackles projected to 16 gamesThere’s a little bit of everything in this season’s top ten, I think. Stud young talent (Willis, Beason), established vets whose solo tackle numbers were likely held back by opportunity (Fletcher, Farrior) and plenty of guys whose futures aren’t so clear cut. We'll get back to this group in a later post.
Top 10 Linebackers Ranked By Percentage Of Total Team Tackles Made (By Season 2003-2008)

1 Patrick Willis (2007) 15.62% 2 Zach Thomas (2005) 14.79% 3 DeMeco Ryans (2006) 14.70% 4 Zach Thomas (2004) 13.97% 5 Keith Brooking (2003) 13.86% 6 Jonathan Vilma (2005) 13.81%T7 Keith Bulluck (2003) 13.77%T7 Ray Lewis (2003) 13.77% 9 Zach Thomas (2006) 13.64%10 Donnie Edwards (2005) 13.33%Patrick Willis’ 2008 season would have finished #13 overall among linebackers since 2003. In my opinion, there’s plenty of worthwhile trend data in just these two short lists. I think it’s worth beating one horse in particular again, however. Though we’ve put the “avoid a 3-4 ILB” argument to bed in any number of ways in this Forum over the past three seasons, I still see it pop up from time to time. Note that four of the ten best percentages over the last six seasons were produced by 3-4 inside linebackers. Again, not all 3-4 ILBs are created alike, but dismissing them out of hand without considering the entire picture is clearly a poor decision.

Some (subjective) analysis of the 2008 data to follow.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Percentage of Team Solos Made

The raw ranking of linebackers according to the percentage of team solo tackles made is interesting, but I think the difference between a given linebacker’s solo tackle ranking and team percentage ranking is more relevant to an analysis of potential under- and overachievers. For this analysis, I calculated the percentage of team solo tackles made for the top 40 linebackers in solo tackles only.

Difference In Ranking Among Top Tackling Linebackers Between Solo Tackles And Percentage Of Team Solo Tackles Made

1 D.J. Williams 302 Gary Brackett 143 Stephen Cooper 134 James Harrison 115 Ray Lewis 96 London Fletcher 57 Channing Crowder 58 James Farrior 5We can ignore the top three players on this list. All three have their rankings skewed by their relatively low solo tackle numbers, i.e. they projected to a very good percentage of team solos but have a low solo tackle ranking due to games missed with injury. To those who were following the 2008 season closely, it should be no surprise to see Ray Lewis, London Fletcher and James Farrior ranked highly in this analysis. All were playing well and all faced well below average tackle opportunity (BAL 32nd, WAS 31st, PIT 27th). Had those three players gotten more opportunity, their solo tackle output would have been much better. Assuming no major changes in health, surrounding cast and scheme next season, all three look like buy low candidates in the LB2 draft range.I’ve repeatedly argued against 3-4 OLB as a reliable option in tackle heavy scoring systems, except in rare cases where you have a high level of confidence that such a player will either hit the 65-12 plateaus necessary to have top 25 value (or better) or see a given player as an all-around player (like an Adalius Thomas was for a number of years). The presence of James Harrison on this list is striking. It strongly suggests that Harrison is in Adalius Thomas class of player and that he’ll hold value even if his pass rush numbers drop off some. Assuming near average tackle opportunity, Harrison’s percentage of team solos made is impressive enough to continue to rely on him as a LB2 with big upside. The stats don’t say the same about guys like Lamarr Woodley, Calvin Pace and even Demarcus Ware.

Channing Crowder is also interesting. Before the season, Crowder was seemingly a lock for good numbers in what looked to be a target rich environment without much competition to make tackles. However, the Dolphins finished the season with the eighth worst tackle opportunity in the league, nearly a full standard deviation below the mean, and Crowder was forced to compete with strong safety Yeremiah Bell and a surprisingly solid defensive line for tackles. Still, Crowder managed to rank sixth overall in percentage of team solos made. Many observers continue to fuss over Crowder’s questionable instincts and every-down skill set, but he frequently found himself around the ball on a defense that outperformed expectations. Where Crowder lands in free agency will obviously play a role, but these rate stats would seem to suggest that Crowder may be closer to D.J. Williams than Dhani Jones as a player and long term

IDP value.

Difference In Ranking Among Top Tackling Linebackers Between Solo Tackles And Percentage Of Team Solo Tackles Made

1 Lance Briggs -122 Clint Session -113 Brian Urlacher -94 Pisa Tinoisamoa -95 Eric Barton -86 Ernie Sims -77 Thomas Howard -78 Paris Lenon -7There are some interesting names on this list, with Lance Briggs chief among them. Briggs nearly hit the impressive 13% plateau noted in an earlier post in 2006, but dropped to 10.25% in 2007 and finished below 10% last season. It might be easy to argue that the Bear defense has plenty of other tacklers holding Briggs down, but those players (Tillman, Urlacher, rotating solid safety group, etc) haven’t changed in recent seasons. A slight change in philosophy shouldn’t be too blame, the fewer Tampa-2 snaps should have been evened out by the increased number of snaps over the A gap that Briggs had last year. And it’s hard to ignore that Briggs’ 92 solos in 2008 may have been buoyed by the fourth best tackle opportunity in the league, the second straight season Chicago finished among the top five in the league. I’m not arguing that Briggs doesn’t belong in the deep low LB1 – deep LB2 tier, but there’s enough in this data set to argue that he may not be the consistent lock he seems to be. At the least, he should be subject to some of the same concerns that now surround Brian Urlacher.I highlighted Session as a guy with a lot of extra opportunity during the season; he’s no surprise here. The same argument applies to Tinoisamoa. Sims, Howard and Lenon are guys that have gotten a little too much love in recent years. They’ve been guys with good opportunity in relatively good situations. Now’s the time to get rid of Sims for another player in the LB2 range if you can.

Other guys of note:

D’Qwell Jackson (six spots worse in team solo percentage) – Would be nice to see him a little higher, given the lack of consistent competition for tackles in Cleveland. He’s at risk of slipping back below 90 solos if his opportunity worsens or his surrounding cast improves.

Kirk Morrison (five spots worse) – Morrison carries a slight concern with the addition of Gibril Wilson last season. With Wilson, Howard and a decent tackling defensive line, Morrison will need solid opportunity (7th best in 2008) to keep himself in the LB1 tier.

Zac Diles (11.52% of team solos made projected from 7+ games played) – Would’ve ranked 7th overall in percentage of team solos made and certainly put a dent in DeMeco Ryans’ stats (as did a sizable drop in tackle opportunity per game). His rate stats, though a very small sample size, put him in the conversation of those 4-3 OLBs who deserve consideration in the top 20, assuming he wins an every-down role next year.