Fundamental 90-year disturbance changed NFL landscape (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

This affects EVERYTHING NFL related.
I can't underestimate the implications. The numbers are staggering.
Exceptional analysis by Dan Orlovsky and the ESPN NFL Live crew.
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Dan Orlovsky
@danorlovsky7
One of the coolest conversations I’ve ever been a part of on TV, again.

LINK to video
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Drew
@lLilPennyl
One of the best segments I’ve ever witnessed from NFL Live
LivingTheDream
@BradleyDarin
It’s the blending of view points to create a cohesive narrative that separates this group. Well done!!
Perry Davis
@perryadamdavis
We need more content like this!!
Eric Berling
@vachannels
Some of the smartest football discussion I've ever seen. Always learn something new from this group.

 

[FairWarning]

I would like to see the rushing numbers excluding qbs. True passing qbs are fading out now. It makes little sense as the rules Favor long passes.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I would like to see the rushing numbers excluding qbs. True passing qbs are fading out now. It makes little sense as the rules Favor long passes.

That's backasswards analysis to say the numbers make little sense.
Nope.
The numbers are unquestionable and tell the story, they make complete sense.
The discussion is how to analyze the numbers and they nail it.

 

[FairWarning]

Do you want Tua running or throwing to Hill and Waddell? I watched some of it, will watch the rest after work.

 

[FairWarning]

Speaking of rushing - the Bears have rushed for 250+ yards for 5 straight games - no one else has done it since 1940.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Do you want Tua running or throwing to Hill and Waddell? I watched some of it, will watch the rest after work.

Do you think what you WANT to happen explains away the numbers?

Speaking of rushing - the Bears have rushed for 250+ yards for 5 straight games - no one else has done it since 1940.

Mobile QB is one of the critical pieces explaining the numbers.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great round table discussion until Mina Kimes had to join from some computer monitor in her home. Forget that fact she really knows zip about the NFL and would have slowed the show down anyways after we get to hear several former players.

"We don't praise physicality any more"
that was funny

The modern NFL uses these short bubble screen type passes as basically an extension of the running game. Brady ran a short passing game in New England with very few big name WRs and won a lot of titles doing it that way.

2-3 yd pass patterns, how many time do we see a WR run 1 or 2 yds on the out pattern and still come up 1 yd short of the first down?

The Miami Dolphins ran for almost 200 yds this past weekend, the high flying passing attack is really just a big circus to hide their true desire to smash teams in the mouth. Robert Hunt, the RG throws some of the best punches all within the rules of course.

Great find, great thread title if I do say so myself
TY so much Bracie for bringing this.

 

[FairWarning]

Do you want Tua running or throwing to Hill and Waddell? I watched some of it, will watch the rest after work.

Do you think what you WANT to happen explains away the numbers?

Speaking of rushing - the Bears have rushed for 250+ yards for 5 straight games - no one else has done it since 1940.

Mobile QB is one of the critical pieces explaining the numbers.

I know mobile qbs are the reason why. I think it’s really not the smartest decision, especially in a salary cap league.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Mina Kimes
@minakimes
Success rate, via @PFF:

Outside zone 2022: 24.6% 2021: 27.2%
Inside zone 2022: 30.1% 2021: 30.9%
Power 2022: 32.6% 2021: 28.8%
Counter 2022: 32.2% 2021: 27.9%

 

[FairWarning]

Orlovski is a good listen on sports talk radio also. He’s on Chixago radio pretty regularly.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Do you want Tua running or throwing to Hill and Waddell? I watched some of it, will watch the rest after work.

Do you think what you WANT to happen explains away the numbers?

Speaking of rushing - the Bears have rushed for 250+ yards for 5 straight games - no one else has done it since 1940.

Mobile QB is one of the critical pieces explaining the numbers.

I know mobile qbs are the reason why. I think it’s really not the smartest decision, especially in a salary cap league.

Is it smart to NOT make adjustments when yards per completion are the lowest in 90 years?
The story is how offenses HAVE adjusted and how defenses HAVE to change, or they'll get run over.

Orlovski is a good listen on sports talk radio also. He’s on Chixago radio pretty regularly.

Dan-O is respected and has been rumored to be a candidate for NFL GM positions.
He knows his stuff, and this is one of the most informative conversations NFL Live has ever had.

 

[BobbyLayne]

IDK if the numbers are staggering.

yards per completion

• 2022 11.0 THE LOWEST SINCE 1933
• 2021 11.0 guess it came down to decimals eh
• 2020 11.1
• 2019 11.4
• 2018 11.4

yards per rushing att

• 2022 4.5 THE HIGHEST EVER
• 2021 4.3
• 2020 4.4
• 2019 4.3
• 2018 4.4

That was a really interesting piece @Bracie Smathers I would never voluntarily watch a studio segment from ESPN so thanks for posting. Good discussion on defense personnel and the type of athletes being recruited/drafted.

The running QBs are one aspect, but to me all of this (including the breakdown on how effective power and gap running is rn over inside / outside zone blocking schemes) really comes down to what offenses are trying to accomplish. Coverage always dictates where the ball is going. How many in the box (including who is in the box) dictates run/pass ratio. So if we look at offensive personnel trends, that tells the story of why teams are in nickel or dime as their base defense 65% of the time.

11 personnel 1RB 1TE [3WR]

• 2021 61%
• 2020 60%
• 2019 60%
• 2018 65%

12 personnel 1RB 2TE [2 WR]

• 2021 21%
• 2020 20%
• 2019 20%
• 2018 17%

21 personnel 2RB [2 WR]

• 2021 7%
• 2020 7%
• 2019 8%
• 2018 8%

13 personnel 3TE [1 WR]

• 2021 4%
• 2020 4%
• 2019 3%
• 2018 3%

22 personnel [1 WR]

• 2021 3%
• 2020 4%
• 2019 4%
• 2018 3%

10 personnel [4 WR]

• 2021 2%
• 2020 2%
• 2019 3%
• 2018 2%

20 personnel [3 WR]

• 2021 1%
• 2020 1%
• 2019 1%
• 2018 1%

empty set 1 TE [4 WR]

• 2021 1%
• 2020 1%
• 2019 0%
• 2018 1%

empty set 2 TE [3 WR]

• 2021 0%
• 2020 1%
• 2019 0%
• 2018 0%

 

[Boston]

Great watch and fascinating info...thanks for posting...I would say they were missing one important piece of info although they did kind of touch on it...follow the $...right now CBs and players who can get to the QB are getting paid in a big way which means a lot of the great young athletes will now gravitate towards those positions where those players will have a tremendous impact on today's game...which leads to the points they are making about offenses having to adjust to those players.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Mina Kimes
@minakimes
Success rate, via @PFF:

Outside zone 2022: 24.6% 2021: 27.2%
Inside zone 2022: 30.1% 2021: 30.9%
Power 2022: 32.6% 2021: 28.8%
Counter 2022: 32.2% 2021: 27.9%

Was this for my benefit?
Good stuff

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... Good discussion on defense personnel and the type of athletes being recruited/drafted.

That is the main takeaway IMHO.
Faster/speedier smaller athletes to cover more ground defending the pass and using outside speed to rush the passer.
Defenses are being built to defend the passing game.
Daniel Jeremiah
@MoveTheSticks
For the last decade, personnel departments have lowered the value on old school 2 gap, run stuffing DT's. I think that's going to change in upcoming draft. So many teams playing shell coverage (light box counts) to limit explosive plays. That skill set has value once again.
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With defenses built with smaller/speedier/athletes they expose the defensive interior to power/trap run schemes.
The five-year trend shows a fundamental change that everyone will have to adapt.
I'm not sure that someone can scheme a way of taking this new type of defense built with smaller/speedier/athletes to counter the passing game that could also stop the power/trap interior run game.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Here is the graph of total rush EPA by run concept.
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Austin Gayle
@austingayle_
Total rush EPA by run concept (via PFF)
LINK to chart
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The top-three teams, Bears, Eagles, Ravens, all have running QBs which greatly helps rush EPA.

The Browns are ranked 4th.
Desaun Watson hasn't played a down this season.
It will be interesting to see what he does in that offense.

 

[Da Guru]

To beat the high scoring teams or passing teams you have to run the ball. When the Giants backup QB beat the high scoring favored Bills who had all the offensive weapons in the Superbowl they possessed the ball a record 41:00 out of 60:00 minutes. The ground out first down after first down.

Thursday night the Titan took the second half kickoff and had over a 10 minute drive. Henry got stuffed on a 4th and 1 but GB got the ball for the first time with 4:30 left in the third quarter.

If teams want to beat Mahomes and Allen led teams they better run and control the football as they usually can`t outscore them in a shootout.