General Drafting Strategy (Statistical Analysis) (1 Viewer)

[Phil03]

I see a lot of posts about strategy and how to draft when you pick where. I did an analysis on the subject which I posted on my website. I'm not here to advertise or anything but the article is close to 4,000 words so I've posted the summary below and a link at the bottom for those interested in the full article:

There are too many possibilities in every draft to give you a strict strategy to follow but I think there are a few basic rules for a 12-team league that you should follow after seeing all these statistics:

* Draft a RB in the first 7 picks (I know it’s obvious).

* In late 1st round, if there are no RBs you like, draft a top 5 WR.

* Draft a top 5 WR in the 2nd or a top 4 QB in the 3rd.

* Make sure you have 2 RBs by the end of the 3rd round.

* Make sure you have 3 RBs by the end of the 6th round.

* Make sure you have your QB by the 8th round

* Make sure all your starting WRs are in the Top 30 (8th round).

* Draft your TE between 8th and 10th round unless you can get a top 2 in the 4th round.

* There is little value at WR in rounds 3 to 5.

As I have said previously nothing of this is set in stone as there are changes every year. I decided to do this analysis because I think a lot of managers have made assumptions in the past and have forgotten to account for the difficulty to predict statistics. It is true that there is a big difference between the running backs but after the top seven it becomes very hard to predict which ones will be near the top. These statistics from the last five years have shown that you can have much more value with a top five WR or even a Top four QB. In your draft this year, instead of reaching for a RB in the late first round that you might not want or who has question marks all over him, think about going the safer route with a top five WR. If you are drafting in the top seven and have taken a RB with your first pick, do not reach if there is no WR you like with one of your other picks and take a top four QB. This might surprise you but a top four QB in the third round is more valuable than a #6 to #10 WR even in a PPR.

As most of these statistics show, there seems to be little value in rounds four and five so if you can trade out of these picks for a third and a seventh round pick, it is worth it. If you cannot do that then in rounds four to six you need at least one RB but after that it really depends on who is available. This year I would suggest that if in the fourth round Gates, Witten, Brady, Romo and Manning are all gone, stay away from those two positions and draft a fourth RB and a WR. Afterwards in rounds seven and eight you can draft a QB and a WR followed by a WR and a TE in rounds nine and ten.

Personally I have always drafted back to back running backs in the first two rounds and I have to say that after writing this analysis I will change my strategy.

http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy...lysis_intro.php

 

[BusMan]

Is this an ad?

:IBTL:

 

[Andy Herron]

Is this an ad? :IBTL:

If it is, I'm not buying what he's selling.

 

[Phil03]

Is this an ad? :IBTL:

It's not meant to be because the post brings content and it's something that everyone can use in their drafts but if the mods think it is they can delete it and I apologize.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Is this an ad? :IBTL:

It gives a link to another fantasy football website, which appears to be a "for profit" website similar to FBG's. It also has other ads and a similar ad on top of the web page. To top it off the OP signed up to FBG's a couple of days ago. Seems fishy to me.

 

[Phil03]

Is this an ad?

It gives a link to another fantasy football website, which appears to be a "for profit" website similar to FBG's. It also has other ads and a similar ad on top of the web page. To top it off the OP signed up to FBG's a couple of days ago. Seems fishy to me.

It's not a for profit website, I sell nothing on my site. I have ads yes, just don't click on them if you don't want me to make any money and I'm also an affiliate of the same company as footballguys. The reason I signed up a few days ago is because I have another account that's been active for 3 years and I used to post pretty often. I created a new one because someone posted a link to one of my articles and I wanted to add something to his post but I don't want fellow managers in my leagues to know who I am and to have access to all the information I will use for my drafts. If that's fishy I guess the mods can decide but would be nice to comment on the article (at least the part I posted here) instead of criticizing.

 

[buddyboy]

Thanks for sharing, it's am interesting article.

 

[pizzatyme]

This info might be helpful for this specific league type, but what if RBs are 1/2 PPR while WRs and TEs are 1PPR?

And so on.

 

[Pictus Cat]

It's a nice study and guide line. Good work.

I tend to use the FBG tools, visualize tiers and my opponents possible and probable actions to get the best value. I also will target players I like in appropriate rounds. These factors may throw your guideline off a little, but like you said, it varies year to year. I would also add it varies by different owner's player opinions/tiers.

I have not looked back to see if my drafts have or should fall in these guidelines...but it would be interesting. I know I draft QB's late usually, unless the QB I think has the best chance to beat out the consensus QB 1 is still on the board at good value. I got Brady in the 6th round in a 16 teamer last year. This year, I'm looking at how far a drop off there is from the top 2 tiers...

Liked the work. Thanks for presenting it.

Edit to add: I like guideline format to organize one's thought on how to approach a draft once you have mocked out. I've seen it here before, and it's a good approach.

 

[a_troll00]

* In late 1st round, if there are no RBs you like, draft a top 5 WR.* Draft a top 5 WR in the 2nd or a top 4 QB in the 3rd.

Traditional wisdom is to get a RB in the first. I'd have a hard time taking a WR in the first round, they're just not consistent enough in my book. Then again, the only first round RB that worked out for me last year was LT2.As far as QBs are concerned, for the most part, I feel this years "top 5" QBs are destined to disappoint.Brady will certainly go in the first round, but he will not put up last years numbers. Last year, he got the records and the undefeated record but no SB ring. There will be no record chasing this year and not nearly as much running up the scores. The focus will most likely be the playoffs and a SB ring.Peyton will put up the same numbers he has been. No real change here. There may be questions about Harrison, but Gonzalez is ready to go.Drew Brees put some good numbers up last year, but didn't seem to be real consistent. What will this year hold? I definitely would not reach to grab this guy as the #3 QB.Tony Romo put up explosive numbers last year but seemed to fade again somewhat during fantasy playoff time. With him as your QB you have a good shot at the playoffs, but you will not win a championship. Also, there have been questions about his devotion to football. This after his little vacation with Jessica and trying out for the US Open again this year. Will a 35 yo TO put up the same numbers as last year?Carson Palmer - ugh. Good QB, but character issues just seem to be imploding the Bungles organization. Buyer beware.

 

[gianmarco]

* In late 1st round, if there are no RBs you like, draft a top 5 WR.

* Draft a top 5 WR in the 2nd or a top 4 QB in the 3rd.

Traditional wisdom is to get a RB in the first. I'd have a hard time taking a WR in the first round, they're just not consistent enough in my book. Then again, the only first round RB that worked out for me last year was LT2.As far as QBs are concerned, for the most part, I feel this years "top 5" QBs are destined to disappoint.

Brady will certainly go in the first round, but he will not put up last years numbers. Last year, he got the records and the undefeated record but no SB ring. There will be no record chasing this year and not nearly as much running up the scores. The focus will most likely be the playoffs and a SB ring.

Peyton will put up the same numbers he has been. No real change here. There may be questions about Harrison, but Gonzalez is ready to go.

Drew Brees put some good numbers up last year, but didn't seem to be real consistent. What will this year hold? I definitely would not reach to grab this guy as the #3 QB.

Tony Romo put up explosive numbers last year but seemed to fade again somewhat during fantasy playoff time. With him as your QB you have a good shot at the playoffs, but you will not win a championship. Also, there have been questions about his devotion to football. This after his little vacation with Jessica and trying out for the US Open again this year. Will a 35 yo TO put up the same numbers as last year?

Carson Palmer - ugh. Good QB, but character issues just seem to be imploding the Bungles organization. Buyer beware.

Drew Brees may not have seemed real consistent to you, but he was. What happened to Drew Brees was a horrendous 4 week start to the season where he threw 1 TD and 9 INTs. After that, he had 2+ TDs every week except two, 240+ yds every week except two, and scored 17+ pts every week except 1. Even after his horrendous start, he finished with over 4400 yds and 28 TDs (after only 1 TD in first 4 weeks). Slow start---yes. Inconsistent---no.

 

[Phil03]

* In late 1st round, if there are no RBs you like, draft a top 5 WR.* Draft a top 5 WR in the 2nd or a top 4 QB in the 3rd.

Traditional wisdom is to get a RB in the first. I'd have a hard time taking a WR in the first round, they're just not consistent enough in my book. Then again, the only first round RB that worked out for me last year was LT2.

What I mean by that is in the late 1st if you're hesitating between 3-4 RB's and there isn't one you truly like, take the Top WR on your board in the 1st and wait until early 2nd round to take the RB that drops. Traditional wisdom is to get a RB in the 1st but the ones you grab in the 1st don't generally perform better than the ones you'll get in the early-mid 2nd, which isn't the case for WR's.

 

[kethnaab]

late in the 1st, I'd give consideration to getting Moss or Wayne if the main RB1s that I am targetting are off the board. It's all about the "tiers"

I don't use a draft order so much as I tier the players. If 5 RBs are on the board at the 10th pick and I value them equally, no reason not to grab Moss if he's available, since at least one of those RBs will fall to me in the 2nd round. Why not do it that way? I grab a guy who is good for 1300+ yards and 15 TDs year-in, year-out. That's what Addai did last year, basically, so that's a pretty safe pick IMHO.

Your own personal projections are very important. I see Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees as being borderline locks for 4000/28. I see Ben, Hasselbeck, DA, and Palmer as having tons of potential, but really aren't a lock for much of anything. I would be quite happy if any of them hit 3500/30, whereas I'd be disappointed if any of the "big 4" landed at 3500/30. That's a big difference, so if one of those big 4 fall to me in the 3rd, I'll jump on him.

Guys like Moss, TO, and Wayne have dominant QBs and play in a passing system. They are pretty much locks for double-digit TDs and 1200+ yards on the low side. Out of the next tier of WRs (Fitz, Colston, Braylon, Andre Johnson) 1 has a dominant QB, 1 has a potentially dominant QB, and the other 2 have very questionable QBs. Granted, All 4 of those 2nd tier WRs have the potential to lead the NFL in TDs and receiving yards, but they also quite easily have the potential to have off-years, and the only "sure thing" is Colston, who also has the lowest ceiling of the 4. Again, a big difference from Tier1 to Tier 2

With RBs, its a very different ballgame. EVERY one of the top tier RBs as well as the 2nd tier RBs have very big question marks. LT2 and AD have easily the highest ceilings and have demonstrated the most potential, but AD's injury concerns are well documented and LT2 is an old guy coming off a knee injury. He also lost his favorite FB. The next tier, Westy/Addai/SJax have lower ceilings but are probably a little more 'guaranteed' to have steady production. Again, however, there are big question marks attached to each of them.

My guidelines are simple

1) System

2) RBBC or main starter

3) WR1 or WR2

That's what dictates success. Take Randy Moss and put him on the Cowher Steelers of the 90s (run first, run last, and run in between...usually), and you take away a lot of his value. If the Pats hadn't picked up Maroney but instead had waited and gotten AD later on, much of his value would've been lost. What if LT2 was drafted in 1980 by the Chargers and was part of Air Coryell?

I know, a lot of 'what-if's', but they are valid concerns that need to be addressed when drafting each year

I know it's been mentioned elsewhere, but Fantasy Football drafting is not as easy as it used to be. Time was, you just drafted the best 2 RBs available with the first 2 picks and went from there. Now, I don't think it's really that smart nor that easy to follow that type of guideline.

 

[saintsfan]

Last year, I tried something different and I won the championship. Now, lots of luck was involved, but this is how I saw the draft last year and this is kind of how I see it this year too:

RB's have lots of question marks. I felt much better taking my chances on the Fred Taylor types in the 4th round and later. At that point, I loaded up on about 4 backs in a row (starting with round 4) after taking Westy in the first round. It worked out OK as Fred did great and I picked up Graham during the season. At this position, I am gonna try and do the same this year. I would expect to draft about 5 RB's, but probably will have lots of them on my roster throughout the season as people get hurt.

WR's. I want two top 10 guys, so I spend early picks on them and hope to get a couple of sleepers. Last year I got Boldin and S. Smith, which worked out great early in the year and during the fantasy playoffs. During the middle of the season, this combo wasn't so hot, but I also drafted Greg Jennings, so I started him and worked in the WR with the best matchup at the other spot.

TE. I wanted Gates. I targeted him in the 3rd and ended up getting him in the 4th. Until late in the year, he was money. He carried me through some rough spots early in the year. Looking back, I probably should have taken Witten because I could have gotten him later, but as Gates was so dominant early, he really set me up to make the playoffs, even if he kind of disappeared in the playoffs.

QB. Don't take one early. Too much risk. Romo and Leinart/Warner (we play team QB) was available in the 7th or 8th round. I took Warner and he performed in the playoffs.

Also, last year was the first time I ever really stongly considered playoff matchups. I drafted with that in mind which is why I drafted Warner, S. Smith, and Boldin. Those guys singlhendedly won me a championship.

Like I said, lots of luck involved, but I'm not sure going heavy on RB in the early rounds is necessarily a requirement anymore. Too many RBBC these days. Value can be had in the middle rounds at that position.

 

[Phil03]

late in the 1st, I'd give consideration to getting Moss or Wayne if the main RB1s that I am targetting are off the board. It's all about the "tiers"I don't use a draft order so much as I tier the players. If 5 RBs are on the board at the 10th pick and I value them equally, no reason not to grab Moss if he's available, since at least one of those RBs will fall to me in the 2nd round. Why not do it that way? I grab a guy who is good for 1300+ yards and 15 TDs year-in, year-out. That's what Addai did last year, basically, so that's a pretty safe pick IMHO.Your own personal projections are very important. I see Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees as being borderline locks for 4000/28. I see Ben, Hasselbeck, DA, and Palmer as having tons of potential, but really aren't a lock for much of anything. I would be quite happy if any of them hit 3500/30, whereas I'd be disappointed if any of the "big 4" landed at 3500/30. That's a big difference, so if one of those big 4 fall to me in the 3rd, I'll jump on him.Guys like Moss, TO, and Wayne have dominant QBs and play in a passing system. They are pretty much locks for double-digit TDs and 1200+ yards on the low side. Out of the next tier of WRs (Fitz, Colston, Braylon, Andre Johnson) 1 has a dominant QB, 1 has a potentially dominant QB, and the other 2 have very questionable QBs. Granted, All 4 of those 2nd tier WRs have the potential to lead the NFL in TDs and receiving yards, but they also quite easily have the potential to have off-years, and the only "sure thing" is Colston, who also has the lowest ceiling of the 4. Again, a big difference from Tier1 to Tier 2With RBs, its a very different ballgame. EVERY one of the top tier RBs as well as the 2nd tier RBs have very big question marks. LT2 and AD have easily the highest ceilings and have demonstrated the most potential, but AD's injury concerns are well documented and LT2 is an old guy coming off a knee injury. He also lost his favorite FB. The next tier, Westy/Addai/SJax have lower ceilings but are probably a little more 'guaranteed' to have steady production. Again, however, there are big question marks attached to each of them.My guidelines are simple1) System2) RBBC or main starter3) WR1 or WR2That's what dictates success. Take Randy Moss and put him on the Cowher Steelers of the 90s (run first, run last, and run in between...usually), and you take away a lot of his value. If the Pats hadn't picked up Maroney but instead had waited and gotten AD later on, much of his value would've been lost. What if LT2 was drafted in 1980 by the Chargers and was part of Air Coryell?I know, a lot of 'what-if's', but they are valid concerns that need to be addressed when drafting each yearI know it's been mentioned elsewhere, but Fantasy Football drafting is not as easy as it used to be. Time was, you just drafted the best 2 RBs available with the first 2 picks and went from there. Now, I don't think it's really that smart nor that easy to follow that type of guideline.

I like that strategy, except at some point you'll have to make a decision of which position to go with when your tiers can't really help you. At WR you mentioned Colston being the surest thing and I think that's huge and for me I,d much rather go with a safe pick in the first three rounds than a gamble. You'll win a league by making picks like Brady, Welker, Moss, Peterson and so on in later rounds but you can also lose it if your first or second round pick is a bust which happens for about half the owners in a league every year.

 

[silentmark]

Tony Romo put up explosive numbers last year but seemed to fade again somewhat during fantasy playoff time. With him as your QB you have a good shot at the playoffs, but you will not win a championship. Also, there have been questions about his devotion to football. This after his little vacation with Jessica and trying out for the US Open again this year. Will a 35 yo TO put up the same numbers as last year?

I won my league last year with him and I know of a few others who won with Romo, shrug ...

 

[kethnaab]

I like that strategy, except at some point you'll have to make a decision of which position to go with when your tiers can't really help you. At WR you mentioned Colston being the surest thing and I think that's huge and for me I,d much rather go with a safe pick in the first three rounds than a gamble. You'll win a league by making picks like Brady, Welker, Moss, Peterson and so on in later rounds but you can also lose it if your first or second round pick is a bust which happens for about half the owners in a league every year.

oh sure, but that's just part of the game. Tiering, stats, "gut instincts", etc all contribute in concert to making wise picks. Last season, there are tons of peeps (myself included) who were able to dominate with late-round picks such as Greg Jennings as well as waiver wire acquisitions like Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant. As always, keep alert, watch for the potential risers, and be ahead of the game when trying to make trades and acquire off of waivers. That'll never change.What has changed, I think, is draft strategy.

Tony Romo put up explosive numbers last year but seemed to fade again somewhat during fantasy playoff time. With him as your QB you have a good shot at the playoffs, but you will not win a championship. Also, there have been questions about his devotion to football. This after his little vacation with Jessica and trying out for the US Open again this year. Will a 35 yo TO put up the same numbers as last year?

I won my league last year with him and I know of a few others who won with Romo, shrug ...

troll is overstating his case but his basic point is valid. People who rely on their QBs to win them championships rarely ever are able to do that. You won with Romo, but I'm willing to bet you didn't draft him 1st round, right?

 

[silentmark]

Tony Romo put up explosive numbers last year but seemed to fade again somewhat during fantasy playoff time. With him as your QB you have a good shot at the playoffs, but you will not win a championship. Also, there have been questions about his devotion to football. This after his little vacation with Jessica and trying out for the US Open again this year. Will a 35 yo TO put up the same numbers as last year?

I won my league last year with him and I know of a few others who won with Romo, shrug ...

troll is overstating his case but his basic point is valid. People who rely on their QBs to win them championships rarely ever are able to do that. You won with Romo, but I'm willing to bet you didn't draft him 1st round, right?

I didn't get that from his post at all, he said he thinks the top 5 will disappoint. He never said anything about relying on a first round QB to win and you're right I didn't draft him in the 1st, rather I landed him in the 8th ... Regardless I just felt his QB comments were abit subjective ...

 

[Phil03]

I didn't get that from his post at all, he said he thinks the top 5 will disappoint. He never said anything about relying on a first round QB to win and you're right I didn't draft him in the 1st, rather I landed him in the 8th ... Regardless I just felt his QB comments were abit subjective ...

Yeah I agree with you here. I don't think any of us are talking about drafting a QB in the first but I wouldn't mind getting Brees in the 4th-5th round. I wouldn't rely on him but if I got 2 backs and a WR by the 4th round, I'd consider a top tier QB in the fourth if one of the ones I like drops.