Generic Rookie Rankings 2014 (2 Viewers)

[ZWK]

Continuing my annual tradition, here are some generic dynasty rankings of this year's rookie class. They are based on historical data of total career VBD, using only a player's position and his draft slot as predictors (and fitting a curve to the data). So Sammy Watkins is treated only as "WR drafted with the 4th pick", etc.

I've also published a handy chart which shows VBD by Draft Pick for every position and every draft pick. So now you have all the numbers that you need to make a generic estimate of any rookie's career VBD - just check the chart. And I've written up instructions for how to translate the numbers into your league's scoring system, whether it has PPR, 2 QB, yardage bonuses, or any other weird scoring format.

Here are the generic rankings for the players drafted in the first round, with tier breaks:

WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans

WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
QB Blake Bortles
TE Eric Ebron
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Kelvin Benjamin

QB Johnny Manziel
QB Teddy Bridgewater

More to come.

 

[cheese]

Not much separation left in the top WRs now IMO after Cooks and OBJ got those spots.

 

[krsone21]

.

 

[ZWK]

Three rounds in:

WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans

WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
QB Blake Bortles
TE Eric Ebron
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Kelvin Benjamin

RB Bishop Sankey
RB Jeremy Hill
RB Carlos Hyde
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
WR Marqise Lee

WR Jordan Matthews
WR Paul Richardson
RB Terrance West
QB Teddy Bridgewater
RB Jerick McKinnon
WR Davante Adams
RB Dri Archer
WR Cody Latimer
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
QB Derek Carr

WR Josh Huff
WR Donte Moncrief
TE Jace Amaro
WR John Brown
TE Troy Niklas
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz

TE Richard Rodgers
TE Crockett Gillmore
QB Jimmy Garoppolo

 

[az_prof]

I can't see Bortles going that high. With this many good WRs and a better than expected group of RBs in the second round, I see Bortles as a second round pick and some might prefer Manziel or even Bridgewater to him.

 

[ZWK]

Now with Freeman & the rest of the day 3 guys (through pick 200):

WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans

WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
QB Blake Bortles
TE Eric Ebron
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Kelvin Benjamin

RB Bishop Sankey
RB Jeremy Hill
RB Carlos Hyde
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
WR Marqise Lee

WR Jordan Matthews
WR Paul Richardson
RB Terrance West
QB Teddy Bridgewater
RB Jerick McKinnon
WR Davante Adams
RB Dri Archer
WR Cody Latimer
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Derek Carr

WR Josh Huff
RB Andre Williams
WR Donte Moncrief
TE Jace Amaro
WR John Brown
TE Troy Niklas
RB Ka'Deem Carey
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
WR Jalen Saunders
RB De'Anthony Thomas
WR Bruce Ellington

RB James White
TE Richard Rodgers
TE Crockett Gillmore
WR Shaq Evans
WR Martavis Bryant
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro
WR Kevin Norwood

QB Jimmy Garoppolo
QB Logan Thomas
QB Tom Savage
WR Ryan Grant
QB Aaron Murray
QB AJ McCarron
WR Devin Street
QB Zach Mettenberger
RB Alfred Blue
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB David Fales
QB Keith Wenning

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

ZWK what kind of rankings are those?

Unless its a 2QB league I cant see ranking Bortles in front of the top RBs

 

[ZWK]

ZWK what kind of rankings are those?

Unless its a 2QB league I cant see ranking Bortles in front of the top RBs

Standard 12 team league - start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE. No ppr.

Bortles is unlikely to go ahead of the top RBs in any actual drafts. But historically, QBs drafted around pick 3 have had better fantasy careers than RBs drafted in the second half of round 2.

 

[az_prof]

Mine:

Tier 1:

1. Watkins

2. Sankey

3. Evans

Tier 2:

4. Lee

5. Cooks

6. Beckham

7. Benjamin

8. Hyde

9. Hill

10. Mason

11. Ebron

Tier 3

12. Williams

13. Freeeman

14. Adams

15. Matthews

16. Robinson

17. Moncrief

18. Landry

19. Manziel

Tier 4

20.Sims

21. Mckinnon

22. West

23. Bortles

24. Bridgewater

Tier 5:

25. Carey

26. Archer

27. Taliaferro

28. White

29. Johnson

30. Seastrunk

31. Blue

32. Carr

 

[lod01]

Mine:

Tier 1:

1. Watkins

2. Sankey

3. Evans

Tier 2:

4. Lee

5. Cooks

6. Beckham

7. Benjamin

8. Hyde

9. Hill

10. Mason

11. Ebron

Tier 3

12. Williams

13. Freeeman

14. Adams

15. Matthews

16. Robinson

17. Moncrief

18. Landry

19. Manziel

Tier 4

20.Sims

21. Mckinnon

22. West

23. Bortles

24. Bridgewater

Tier 5:

25. Carey

26. Archer

27. Taliaferro

28. White

29. Johnson

30. Seastrunk

31. Blue

32. Carr

Where's Latimer?

 

[az_prof]

Mine:

Tier 1:

1. Watkins

2. Sankey

3. Evans

Tier 2:

4. Lee

5. Cooks

6. Beckham

7. Benjamin

8. Hyde

9. Hill

10. Mason

11. Ebron

Tier 3

12. Williams

13. Freeeman

14. Adams

15. Matthews

16. Robinson

17. Moncrief

18. Landry

19. Manziel

Tier 4

20.Sims

21. Mckinnon

22. West

23. Bortles

24. Bridgewater

Tier 5:

25. Carey

26. Archer

27. Taliaferro

28. White

29. Johnson

30. Seastrunk

31. Blue

32. Carr

Where's Latimer?

Good catch. I am still editing this and need to add him to Tier 2

 

[az_prof]

Mine: updated, edition 2

Tier 1:

1. Watkins

2. Sankey

3. Evans

Tier 2:

4. Lee

5. Cooks

6. Beckham

7. Benjamin

8. Latimer

9. Hyde

10. Hill

11. Mason

12. Ebron

Tier 3

13. Williams

14. Freeeman

15. Adams

16. Matthews

17. Robinson

18. Moncrief

19. Landry

20. Manziel

Tier 4

21.Sims

22. Mckinnon

23. West

24. Bortles

25. Bridgewater

Tier 5:

26. Carey

27. Archer

28. Taliaferro

29. White

30. Johnson

31. Seastrunk

32. Blue

33. Carr

 

[KellysHeroes]

great list, i might move Hyde up a little

 

[FUBAR]

great list, i might move Hyde up a little

Agreed. In most formats, I'd probably have Hyde top 5

 

[jurb26]

Mine: updated, edition 2

Tier 1:

1. Watkins

2. Sankey

3. Evans

Tier 2:

4. Lee

5. Cooks

6. Beckham

7. Benjamin

8. Latimer

9. Hyde

10. Hill

11. Mason

12. Ebron

Tier 3

13. Williams

14. Freeeman

15. Adams

16. Matthews

17. Robinson

18. Moncrief

19. Landry

20. Manziel

Tier 4

21.Sims

22. Mckinnon

23. West

24. Bortles

25. Bridgewater

Tier 5:

26. Carey

27. Archer

28. Taliaferro

29. White

30. Johnson

31. Seastrunk

32. Blue

33. Carr

I like this list the best so far. I'm lower on Cooks and Benjamin a good deal. Higher on Adams, Bryant and Bridgewater. Still, I like it.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

For WRs/TEs I weigh the following.

- Pre-draft rankings based soley on talent has to be considered first

Post draft I factor in these things but not in any order

- Competition/opportunity to start

- QB

- Climate

- How they'll be used/will they be used near goal or between the 20s

- How much playing time expected

---------------------------------

For RBs

- Pre-draft rankings based soley on talent

Post draft

- Opportunity to start

- How RB is expected to be used

--------------------------------

For QBs

- Pre-draft rankings based solely on talent

Post draft

- opportunity to start

- offense/coaching staff will they use them properly

- supporting cast

- climate

- running ability rushing yards/rushing scores (both TDs and 2-pt conversion) are big bonus for QBs