Get Your Money out of the Market (1 Viewer)

[Maelstrom]

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

So you're 100% in oil? I applaud your intelligent use of diversification.

http://live.wsj.com/...6B-9DC23DD82BEF

Entrepreneur Mark Cuban sits down with the Journal's Alan Murray and weighs in on the fluctuating market. Cuban is investing in volatility. He believes "buy and hold is a crock of $%#!" and diversification is for idiots.

I agree that buy and hold is for idiots, but the truely idiotic thing that people do is to invest thier financial future into a mechanism that they do not understand. If you cannot explain what you are buying, and why you expect it will increase in value, you are better off paying off your house or keeping your savings in cash. Diversification can still be a good strategy for people who can't pay the same level of attention as Warren Buffet. Meaning, if you think the stock market will go up and can justify why, it isn't a bad idea to put all of your money into a market based mutal fund. The low fees, combined with a rising tide lifting all stocks will still allow you to capture most of the upswing. If you have a job, kids, and elderly parents, this may be the best you can do.

One of the interesting things about Cuban's interview was that he said the average family would be better served buying non-perishables in bulk (and on sale/discount) before thinking about investing. Guaranteed return, and you can calculate that return before you spend the money.

 

[fatkid]

Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.

13,021.82 right now.

So two and half months of QE3 has produced a 0.2% market gain.The Fed's bag of tricks might be losing their potency.ETA: I hope those mocking LHUCKS realize that the Fed wouldn't have decided to start QE3 if there wasn't some degree of truth to what LHUCKS said. It doesn't QE stable or good markets.

QE3 will have more impact starting next year. The plan is to keep lowering mortgage rates, but most folks can't come up with the money to refinance until after the property taxes have been paid for escrow purposes. So expect more refis to take place in January, and the effects of the extra money in everyones pocket to hit the economy in Q1 or Q2.Notice that LHUCKS doesn't say to keep your money out next year. Just to avoid the uncertainty with the election, the fiscal cliff and Europe. What he is really saying is to notice that people are going to panic for these reasons, and sell stocks. So if you can beat everyone to the sell, and then buy near the bottom, you are maximizing your profits. Buy and hold is for suckers.

 

[fatkid]

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

So you're 100% in oil? I applaud your intelligent use of diversification.

http://live.wsj.com/...6B-9DC23DD82BEF

Entrepreneur Mark Cuban sits down with the Journal's Alan Murray and weighs in on the fluctuating market. Cuban is investing in volatility. He believes "buy and hold is a crock of $%#!" and diversification is for idiots.

I agree that buy and hold is for idiots, but the truely idiotic thing that people do is to invest thier financial future into a mechanism that they do not understand. If you cannot explain what you are buying, and why you expect it will increase in value, you are better off paying off your house or keeping your savings in cash. Diversification can still be a good strategy for people who can't pay the same level of attention as Warren Buffet. Meaning, if you think the stock market will go up and can justify why, it isn't a bad idea to put all of your money into a market based mutal fund. The low fees, combined with a rising tide lifting all stocks will still allow you to capture most of the upswing. If you have a job, kids, and elderly parents, this may be the best you can do.

One of the interesting things about Cuban's interview was that he said the average family would be better served buying non-perishables in bulk (and on sale/discount) before thinking about investing. Guaranteed return, and you can calculate that return before you spend the money.

I totally agree. The average homeowner would be better off investing in new windows, an energy efficient furnace/AC, or their mortgage than in the market. They can understand the return on those concepts.

 

[Gr00vus]

Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.

13,021.82 right now.

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

Vegetable, peanut or canola?

 

[Josie Maran]

Fatkid = HUCKS alias?

 

[tommyGunZ]

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

So you're 100% in oil? I applaud your intelligent use of diversification.

technically 50% in oil...so getting out of the market has been a net gain for me.Will likely hand pick stocks frome here on out and stay away from funds/indeces.

How so?

I'm all in on oil.

Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.

DBO @ 25.19

FOL @ 9.36

DBO closed at $25.09 today, FOL at $8.94. So you're down ~ 4.5% in FOL in 2 days, and basically even on DBO. Meanwhile the DOW is up slightly from the day you urged folks to "GET OUT OF THE MARKET NOW".In the meantime, you were advising folks to do this:

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

Inverse Index ETFs were a net loser over the time frame. So basically, getting out was a mistake, getting out and getting into inverse index ETFs was a mistake, and thus far, your Oil calls have been a mistake.Oh yeah, and you're a Romney supporter as well. An inverse "LHUCKS on Life" fund would make boatloads.

 

[fatkid]

Fatkid = HUCKS alias?

It's that unreasonable to think anyone would agree with him on any topic?

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Fatkid = HUCKS alias?

It's that unreasonable to think anyone would agree with him on any topic?

Yes.

 

[Keerock]

An inverse "LHUCKS on Life" fund would make boatloads.

 

[azgroover]

Just to play devil's advocate here, why isn't Hucks getting the full duration of his stated 4 month period before calling him out?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Just to play devil's advocate here, why isn't Hucks getting the full duration of his stated 4 month period before calling him out?

it's kind of silly to start a thread like this (GET OUT NOW!!!!!) if you think the market is going to tank 4 months later. Plus, he was happy to bump it during a recent decline.

 

[azgroover]

Just to play devil's advocate here, why isn't Hucks getting the full duration of his stated 4 month period before calling him out?

it's kind of silly to start a thread like this (GET OUT NOW!!!!!) if you think the market is going to tank 4 months later. Plus, he was happy to bump it during a recent decline.

So maybe the use of "today" wasn't a good choice, but the first sentence clearly mentions the next 4 months...which leads me to; you're right; bumping it during the decline is kind of asking for it.Carry on.

 

[Politician Spock]

Just to play devil's advocate here, why isn't Hucks getting the full duration of his stated 4 month period before calling him out?

Because stock traders are essentially timers of the market, and if you aren't telling them what the exact last day, hour, or minute is before your change prediction, then your information is useless to them... and as such you're full of ####.The reality is that a huge correction is coming, but it's impossible to predict when because there are very rich and powerful people who are doing everything they can to keep it from occuring. It will occur when their bag of tricks run out.

 

[NewlyRetired]

Just to play devil's advocate here, why isn't Hucks getting the full duration of his stated 4 month period before calling him out?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=653949&view=findpost&p=15046146

 

[LHUCKS]

this article basically saying what my guys were saying when I created this thread several months ago...

My link

 

[Gr00vus]

So tomorrow is today?

 

[Mister Martie]

Goldman has a 1575 target on the S&P for 2013. Probably forgot to check with all of LHUCKS "guys."

 

[Gr00vus]

So tomorrow is today?

I guess it's still not today yet.

 

[pantherclub]

this article basically saying what my guys were saying when I created this thread several months ago...

My link

my guys

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Nice little rally today. Let this be a reminder for us all.

 

[Thorn]

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

So you're 100% in oil? I applaud your intelligent use of diversification.

technically 50% in oil...so getting out of the market has been a net gain for me.Will likely hand pick stocks frome here on out and stay away from funds/indeces.

How so?

I'm all in on oil.

Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.

DBO @ 25.19

FOL @ 9.36

DBO closed at $25.09 today, FOL at $8.94. So you're down ~ 4.5% in FOL in 2 days, and basically even on DBO. Meanwhile the DOW is up slightly from the day you urged folks to "GET OUT OF THE MARKET NOW".In the meantime, you were advising folks to do this:

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

Inverse Index ETFs were a net loser over the time frame. So basically, getting out was a mistake, getting out and getting into inverse index ETFs was a mistake, and thus far, your Oil calls have been a mistake.Oh yeah, and you're a Romney supporter as well. An inverse "LHUCKS on Life" fund would make boatloads.

ouch

 

[Parrothead]

Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.

13,021.82 right now.

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

Vegetable, peanut or canola?

baby

 

[Gr00vus]

Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.

13,021.82 right now.

Got into oil earlier this week(see stock thread)...safer than stock.

Vegetable, peanut or canola?

baby

Seggsy

 

[Gr00vus]

So tomorrow is today?

I guess it's still not today yet.

How about now? No?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.The Dow is at 12,997 right now.

have you gone pro gold tout? Reads like one of those ads.

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

are you broke yet?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

13324.44

 

[datonn]

Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase.

The Dow is at 12,997 right now.

have you gone pro gold tout? Reads like one of those ads.

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

are you broke yet?

C'mon now Aaron...you KNOW that LHUCKS is our financial and intellectual superior in every way known to humanity...if he got it wrong, it's probably because the rest of us screwed it up SO royally that it messed up the way things were supposed to go.

 

[Slapdash]

I'm all in on oil.Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.DBO @ 25.19FOL @ 9.36

 

[Fennis]

I'm all in on oil.Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.DBO @ 25.19FOL @ 9.36

he should have stayed with an index fund

 

[The Commish]

I'm all in on oil.Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.DBO @ 25.19FOL @ 9.36

he should have stayed with an index fund

I want him MORE in oil...it can only bring my gas prices down

 

[ffldrew]

Would it be possible to get an LHUCKS market update? - I have to change 401K investments here at the new year and I need his direction in order to do the opposite

 

[Fennis]

From my 401(K):

Your Account Summary Statement Period: 09/04/2012 to 12/11/2012 Your Personal Rate of Return This Period 4.6%

 

[Limp Ditka]

 

[Dentist]

I'm all in on oil.Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.DBO @ 25.19FOL @ 9.36

What approximate amount of money are we talking that you put into these?0-10K11-50K51-100K101-200K201K+

 

[BeTheMatch]

I'm all in on oil.Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.DBO @ 25.19FOL @ 9.36

What approximate amount of money are we talking that you put into these?0-10K11-50K51-100K101-200K201K+

I believe he's been perma-banned, so there won't be any answer coming.

 

[pantherclub]

Best thread ever.

This is LHUCKS best advice since he advocating taking Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson over Tom Brady in the first round.

Pure. Gold.

 

[Neovivo]

What is LHUCKS alias? Someone has to be the scapegoat

 

[ffldrew]

It's a shame he got banned - my guess is he's into Gold right now

 

[Unlucky]

I am so glad I finally found this thread! I'm taking everything out of the stock market and putting it all on the Tennessee Titans +1 tonight.

 

[kutta]

It's a shame he got banned - my guess is he's into Gold right now

Did he really get banned? For what?I'm always way behind the curve on these things...

 

[Dentist]

I'm all in on oil.Hit DBO and FOL ETFs with about 50% of what has been on the bench. I see all upside here.DBO @ 25.19FOL @ 9.36

What approximate amount of money are we talking that you put into these?0-10K11-50K51-100K101-200K201K+

I believe he's been perma-banned, so there won't be any answer coming.

oh, well ok.My guess was the guy was making these bold statements with like < 50K in play.I'm not going to trust someone's conviction that doesn't have a quarter million or better in play.it's easy to make a bold statement when we're talking about saving/making a few grand here or there.... it's a whole lot different when a play could gain or lose you tens of thousands of dollars

 

[flranger]

Every time I see the market go up over 100 points I think of this thread. This is one of my favorite threads on the board right now. I do think that LHucks is probably a pretty smart guy. Or maybe a better description is he has seen a lot of things happen. Not able to interpret them, but he has seen them.

It was funny to watch the market dip right after the election when Republicans got pissy since their guy didn't win. OK, we get it. Your mad. And to prove it you took your ball and went home. Meanwhile, all the cool kids just relaxed, picked up another ball and kept playing while they watched out the window like a kid on restriction.

I guess I should make a prediction myself. OK, I predict the DJIA will go up 6% per year from today. And I predict it for any given date in the next 30 years, at which time I'll no longer care. And anyone who tries to time the swings will repeatedly miss the mark due to transaction costs.

 

[ffldrew]

It's a shame he got banned - my guess is he's into Gold right now

Did he really get banned? For what?I'm always way behind the curve on these things...

For going one d-bag bridge too far....over in the Sandy Hook shootings thread.

 

[Keerock]

It's a shame he got banned - my guess is he's into Gold right now

Did he really get banned? For what?I'm always way behind the curve on these things...

For going one d-bag bridge too far....over in the Sandy Hook shootings thread.

I have him on ignore, so I missed it. If it's a perma-ban, my Merry Christmas has just been made complete.

 

[siffoin]

Every time I see the market go up over 100 points I think of this thread. This is one of my favorite threads on the board right now. I do think that LHucks is probably a pretty smart guy. Or maybe a better description is he has seen a lot of things happen. Not able to interpret them, but he has seen them.

It was funny to watch the market dip right after the election when Republicans got pissy since their guy didn't win. OK, we get it. Your mad. And to prove it you took your ball and went home. Meanwhile, all the cool kids just relaxed, picked up another ball and kept playing while they watched out the window like a kid on restriction.

I guess I should make a prediction myself. OK, I predict the DJIA will go up 6% per year from today. And I predict it for any given date in the next 30 years, at which time I'll no longer care. And anyone who tries to time the swings will repeatedly miss the mark due to transaction costs.

I think there are some issues with your prediction.#1: For the past 13 years (close to half of your 30 year expected time frame) the DJIA has not averaged anything close to a +6% return. The average return rate on the Dow is less than 2%. (Dow on Jan 1, 2000= 11,500. DOW on Dec 18, 2012= 13,315. Had we been returning 6% annually DOW should be at 24,500). Your expectation for 6% annual returns seems optimistic.

#2: But lets forget those facts for a second and say that for the next 30 years you can actually exceed the average return from this century by 3x per year...you'll need to account for the effects of inflation and your purchasing power of those invested dollars 30 years into the future. By real inflation what I mean is the cost of food, energy, healthcare, tuition, and taxes- the things you'll spend a majority of your money on. The Everyday Price Index for 2011 was 8%, and last time I checked for 2012 it is around 12%. Perhaps more troubling in a 30 year time frame will be the effects of our current monetary policy, and its inflationary impact, which we have not yet seen. For the sake of conversation lets just say that for the next 30 years real inflation will be 8%. That means for every $100 you invest in the market your annual purchasing power will be $98 after your 6% market return. A -2% return in your buying power compounded over 30 years is going to be quite problematic.

#3: Buy and Hold is great. Great for bankers, brokerage firms, fat finger traders etc. Buy and Holders are like KY Jelly...you provide those who really control the market with a nice lubricant. You're being used. And the goal isn't to provide a collective cushy future for you, but to #### you up the ###. The reality is the market isn't for everyone. There are much safer and less volatile places to grow money. If people were being honest, the true hope of any buy and holder is that they are fortunate enough to retire at the exact moment the market is at a peak-which in the end is the epitome of being a market timer. Unfortunately that window is quite narrow and open to very few. I don't know the future, but I am quite certain that in the next 30 years there will be bull markets and there will be bear markets. It doesn't take much savvy to learn how to capitalize in both. People who refuse to recognize that...prepare to bend over.

 

[Slapdash]

By real inflation what I mean is the cost of food, energy, healthcare, tuition, and taxes- the things you'll spend a majority of your money on. The Everyday Price Index for 2011 was 8%, and last time I checked for 2012 it is around 12%.

The frequently purchased products in the Everyday Price Index make up only about 39 percent of total household spending

https://www.aier.org/article/7545-everyday-price-index

 

[siffoin]

By real inflation what I mean is the cost of food, energy, healthcare, tuition, and taxes- the things you'll spend a majority of your money on. The Everyday Price Index for 2011 was 8%, and last time I checked for 2012 it is around 12%.

The frequently purchased products in the Everyday Price Index make up only about 39 percent of total household spending

https://www.aier.org/article/7545-everyday-price-index

100% correct. The EPI doesn't account for Healthcare (-perscriptions), Tuition or Taxes. Is your assertion these will rise significantly less than 8% per year, or that the collective of the components of the EPI + Healthcare + Taxes + Tuition does not equal the majority of what a person spends?

 

[Slapdash]

By real inflation what I mean is the cost of food, energy, healthcare, tuition, and taxes- the things you'll spend a majority of your money on. The Everyday Price Index for 2011 was 8%, and last time I checked for 2012 it is around 12%.

The frequently purchased products in the Everyday Price Index make up only about 39 percent of total household spending

https://www.aier.org/article/7545-everyday-price-index

100% correct. The EPI doesn't account for Healthcare (-perscriptions), Tuition or Taxes. Is your assertion these will rise significantly less than 8% per year, or that the collective of the components of the EPI + Healthcare + Taxes + Tuition does not equal the majority of what a person spends?

My assertion is that it is silly base your spending expectations in retirement on something that excludes so many goods and services that people actually purchase.

 

[JoePlumber]

Good call bro

 

[siffoin]

By real inflation what I mean is the cost of food, energy, healthcare, tuition, and taxes- the things you'll spend a majority of your money on. The Everyday Price Index for 2011 was 8%, and last time I checked for 2012 it is around 12%.

The frequently purchased products in the Everyday Price Index make up only about 39 percent of total household spending

https://www.aier.org/article/7545-everyday-price-index

100% correct. The EPI doesn't account for Healthcare (-perscriptions), Tuition or Taxes. Is your assertion these will rise significantly less than 8% per year, or that the collective of the components of the EPI + Healthcare + Taxes + Tuition does not equal the majority of what a person spends?

My assertion is that it is silly base your spending expectations in retirement on something that excludes so many goods and services that people actually purchase.

What do you think real inflation is for the things people actually purchase? What do you think that will be moving forward?I think you're really missing the point to which is it's silly to base your expected market gains at a rate 3x higher than the average annual rate has been for 13 years, and that even if you were to use Gov't CPI as your base- your purchasing power is negative year over year vs. avg market returns.

My assertion is that one has to have a market return greater than inflation, and buy and holding is just not getting that job done anyway you want to slice it.