Get Your Money out of the Market (1 Viewer)

[Andrew74]

Making money is fun.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Did he mean now?

 

[NREC34]

Did he mean now?

I think you did mean now.

 

[stbugs]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

 

[roadkill1292]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

lod01 is the former FavreCo, whose economic theories are drawn from intense conversations with his great-grandfather.

 

[stbugs]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

lod01 is the former FavreCo, whose economic theories are drawn from intense conversations with his great-grandfather.

LOL, I remember that guy. Makes sense now.

 

[The_Man]

Great googly moogly.

I am a buy-and-hold investor whose only exposure to the market is through the 401k/403b accounts that my wife and I have.

I'm now at the point where I log-in to those accounts every day just for the brief momentary thrill of seeing how much they've gone up from the day before.

 

[NewlyRetired]

Great googly moogly.

I am a buy-and-hold investor whose only exposure to the market is through the 401k/403b accounts that my wife and I have.

I'm now at the point where I log-in to those accounts every day just for the brief momentary thrill of seeing how much they've gone up from the day before.

they say when the average investor gets to this point, that the run might be coming to an end.

And what a glorious run it was.

After what ever pull back will occur (and it will, that is just how things work), we really need to unban LHucks and ask him to start a new doomsday thread.

 

[The_Man]

Great googly moogly.

I am a buy-and-hold investor whose only exposure to the market is through the 401k/403b accounts that my wife and I have.

I'm now at the point where I log-in to those accounts every day just for the brief momentary thrill of seeing how much they've gone up from the day before.

they say when the average investor gets to this point, that the run might be coming to an end.

That's kind of what I was thinking to be honest. If someone like me is starting to feel all giddy, then it's probably not a great sign.

 

[lod01]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

lod01 is the former FavreCo, whose economic theories are drawn from intense conversations with his great-grandfather.

LOL, I remember that guy. Makes sense now.

That's me. Actually my theory is simply if there is a democratic president, the stock market will go up much more than a republican one. However, this is way past overbought. btw, the naz is still under when I said to sell by 1 percent.

Both times the stock market did what it is doing now it collapsed in a heap. I didn't see it coming back in 2000 (internet bubble pop) but I saw it coming from a million miles away in 2008 (housing bubble popped).

 

[mquinnjr]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/the-new-nifty-fifty-stocks-141801990.html?.tsrc=applewf

Good article on why largest cap stocks are still surging, and smaller cap stocks are treading water or losing ground, but overall indices still trudging ahead - fund managers moving to safe super cap stocks in anticipation of a market pull back.

 

[lod01]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/the-new-nifty-fifty-stocks-141801990.html?.tsrc=applewf

Good article on why largest cap stocks are still surging, and smaller cap stocks are treading water or losing ground, but overall indices still trudging ahead - fund managers moving to safe super cap stocks in anticipation of a market pull back.

That was the article I was looking for. Read it yesterday.

 

[stbugs]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

lod01 is the former FavreCo, whose economic theories are drawn from intense conversations with his great-grandfather.

LOL, I remember that guy. Makes sense now.

That's me. Actually my theory is simply if there is a democratic president, the stock market will go up much more than a republican one. However, this is way past overbought. btw, the naz is still under when I said to sell by 1 percent.

Both times the stock market did what it is doing now it collapsed in a heap. I didn't see it coming back in 2000 (internet bubble pop) but I saw it coming from a million miles away in 2008 (housing bubble popped).

Huh, I don't recall you saying anything about the Nasdaq when you called it, but I'll correct you on the Nasdaq. As of now, it is up 1.03%. You may have miss read it. The current number is 4,321.40 and it was 4277.30 in my post above. It's up 2% since my post. The S&P is now up 5.6% since your call.

That said, I agree that it is a bit frothy, but your whole premise was on events that didn't have an impact. I think there could be a little correction, but people seem to forget that most companies are very lean right now and the stock market <> the entire economy. Everyone I know is always busy with work, companies are getting a ton of productivity out of their employees.

The reason I was less worried was I think of things like Todem (I think it was him). Historically, the stock market had been flat for a long time when you look at the past decade or so. I think in other threads I had mentioned that even looking at stuff like the Great Depression, the decade performance wasn't worse than the horrid performance we had just had. I knew we were due for a nice run. Personally, I missed out on the dot com stocks, even though I was working for a software company. I knew those companies (some of which I knew really well) weren't worth anything close to the values or worth anything at all. I knew it would blow up, just didn't know when. I thought the same thing on the housing market, because I watched my house triple in value in 8 years right before I sold it. The house certainly wasn't worth what I sold it for and still down 15-20% from there 8 years ago.

 

[Gr00vus]

I wonder if Hucks can still afford internet service anymore.

 

[Dentist]

how about now? dow 17K exit time?

 

[Todem]

Naaa Dentist...ride this baby to 18K this year. S&P 2001 as well.

Next year? A whole other story.

 

[Politician Spock]

how about now? dow 17K exit time?

Do not exit until QE stops.

 

[lod01]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

lod01 is the former FavreCo, whose economic theories are drawn from intense conversations with his great-grandfather.

LOL, I remember that guy. Makes sense now.

That's me. Actually my theory is simply if there is a democratic president, the stock market will go up much more than a republican one. However, this is way past overbought. btw, the naz is still under when I said to sell by 1 percent.

Both times the stock market did what it is doing now it collapsed in a heap. I didn't see it coming back in 2000 (internet bubble pop) but I saw it coming from a million miles away in 2008 (housing bubble popped).

Huh, I don't recall you saying anything about the Nasdaq when you called it, but I'll correct you on the Nasdaq. As of now, it is up 1.03%. You may have miss read it. The current number is 4,321.40 and it was 4277.30 in my post above. It's up 2% since my post. The S&P is now up 5.6% since your call.

That said, I agree that it is a bit frothy, but your whole premise was on events that didn't have an impact. I think there could be a little correction, but people seem to forget that most companies are very lean right now and the stock market <> the entire economy. Everyone I know is always busy with work, companies are getting a ton of productivity out of their employees.

The reason I was less worried was I think of things like Todem (I think it was him). Historically, the stock market had been flat for a long time when you look at the past decade or so. I think in other threads I had mentioned that even looking at stuff like the Great Depression, the decade performance wasn't worse than the horrid performance we had just had. I knew we were due for a nice run. Personally, I missed out on the dot com stocks, even though I was working for a software company. I knew those companies (some of which I knew really well) weren't worth anything close to the values or worth anything at all. I knew it would blow up, just didn't know when. I thought the same thing on the housing market, because I watched my house triple in value in 8 years right before I sold it. The house certainly wasn't worth what I sold it for and still down 15-20% from there 8 years ago.

Check the date of my call and the drop in the nasdaq after that date. At it's bottom, it dropped 10% from my call. Obviously its going to go back up. Otherwise there would be no stock market. My call was the best one on here.

 

[Gr00vus]

now?

 

[pantherclub]

I wonder if Hucks can still afford internet service anymore.

they should unban him just for this thread alone

 

[Gr00vus]

I wonder if Hucks can still afford internet service anymore.

they should unban him just for this thread alone

 

[fantasycurse42]

now?

no, it is up again, maybe Monday?

 

[[icon]]

My favorite part of the thread:

I have the fortune of working with Fortune 100 strategists. This isn't a shooting from the hip kind of post.

Wonder how this worked out:

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

I moved everything I could into cash today. I will be buying inverse index ETFs in the coming weeks, alhtough I have not decided which ones.

 

[fantasycurse42]

My favorite part of the thread:

I have the fortune of working with Fortune 100 strategists. This isn't a shooting from the hip kind of post.

Wonder how this worked out:

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

I moved everything I could into cash today. I will be buying inverse index ETFs in the coming weeks, alhtough I have not decided which ones.

Basically just bankrupt 3x faster

 

[The_Man]

Yep, now.

LHUCKS - Not worth checking the amount of $$$ lost on his call.

lod01 (not sure if LHUCKS or not, I have no notebook)

March 3rd: Nasdaq 4277.30, Dow 16,168.03, S&P 1845.73

Today: Nasdaq 4234.08 -1%, Dow 16,722.34 +3.4%, S&P 1924.24 +4.3%

March 3rd = Market Peak, all downhill from there, eat it #####es.

lod01 is the former FavreCo, whose economic theories are drawn from intense conversations with his great-grandfather.

LOL, I remember that guy. Makes sense now.

That's me. Actually my theory is simply if there is a democratic president, the stock market will go up much more than a republican one. However, this is way past overbought. btw, the naz is still under when I said to sell by 1 percent.

Both times the stock market did what it is doing now it collapsed in a heap. I didn't see it coming back in 2000 (internet bubble pop) but I saw it coming from a million miles away in 2008 (housing bubble popped).

Huh, I don't recall you saying anything about the Nasdaq when you called it, but I'll correct you on the Nasdaq. As of now, it is up 1.03%. You may have miss read it. The current number is 4,321.40 and it was 4277.30 in my post above. It's up 2% since my post. The S&P is now up 5.6% since your call.

That said, I agree that it is a bit frothy, but your whole premise was on events that didn't have an impact. I think there could be a little correction, but people seem to forget that most companies are very lean right now and the stock market <> the entire economy. Everyone I know is always busy with work, companies are getting a ton of productivity out of their employees.

The reason I was less worried was I think of things like Todem (I think it was him). Historically, the stock market had been flat for a long time when you look at the past decade or so. I think in other threads I had mentioned that even looking at stuff like the Great Depression, the decade performance wasn't worse than the horrid performance we had just had. I knew we were due for a nice run. Personally, I missed out on the dot com stocks, even though I was working for a software company. I knew those companies (some of which I knew really well) weren't worth anything close to the values or worth anything at all. I knew it would blow up, just didn't know when. I thought the same thing on the housing market, because I watched my house triple in value in 8 years right before I sold it. The house certainly wasn't worth what I sold it for and still down 15-20% from there 8 years ago.

Check the date of my call and the drop in the nasdaq after that date. At it's bottom, it dropped 10% from my call. Obviously its going to go back up. Otherwise there would be no stock market. My call was the best one on here.

Link to when you posted that people should get back into the nasdaq?

 

[The_Man]

Looks like I was a tad early but since March 5th, the Nasdaq has been on a course of lower highs and lower lows. Huge crater going on right now. If we close below 4150, the trend continues.

A LITTLE early? Didn't you start this thread in Sept, 2012?

Well that and he is cherry picking the Nasdaq when the S&P is still up from his latest call on March 3rd, even with today as well.

Things appear to be hitting a head, but as I mentioned in several thread here a couple years ago, we were hitting record corporate profits year over year even though the stock market literally hadn't gone up at all since the 1999/2000 peak. It was something like 10 years with 0% return, which was worse than any ten year period I had ever seen, even the great depression. This is all from memory, but still it definitely made me realize that there was going to be a nice run. Wish I had had more cash laying around, but my retirement accounts have done much better of late.

It appears that I called the S&P top at just under 1%. S&P now down 3.5% from my call. Basically nailed the top of the naz at about 4345 (top being 4362). Naz down 10% from my call.

Wow, after an almost 300% run-up, you called it? Impressive, especially since you called it wrong before. Also, there are always dips and pops. Saying you called it now is meaningless. If you called a top in January, you looked good at the beginning of February and then looked bad in March. Don't pat yourself on the back yet. Calling a dip after a 300% run-up in 5 years isn't even a good call when you said that it wasn't going to do well a while ago and missed out on a ton of gains.

That said, I kind of agree with you. I think we are at a top for a bit.

And that would be when? I made 1 call near the end of the day on March 3rd. You are just sour grapes that I almos tnailed it perfectly. You are probably riding the market down.

Nasdaq is up 4.8% in exactly 4 months to the day of this perfect nailing.

 

[George Jefferson Airplane]

I'm having trouble folding all this money I'm making into a tight bank roll. Do they make $100k bills?

 

[George Jefferson Airplane]

My favorite part of the thread:

I have the fortune of working with Fortune 100 strategists. This isn't a shooting from the hip kind of post.

Wonder how this worked out:

Inverse Index ETFs are the sharkmove here. 3X leverage if you believe as strongly as I do.

I moved everything I could into cash today. I will be buying inverse index ETFs in the coming weeks, alhtough I have not decided which ones.

Well at least he's able to buy more shares now.

 

[Peyton Marino]

....n....NNN...

NOW

 

[Politician Spock]

....n....NNN...

NOW

Almost...

 

[Politician Spock]

....n....NNN...

NOW

Almost...

From: www.telegraph.co.uk

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

8:10PM BST 13 Jul 2014

The world economy is just as vulnerable to a financial crisis as it was in 2007, with the added danger that debt ratios are now far higher and emerging markets have been drawn into the fire as well, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

Jaime Caruana, head of the Swiss-based financial watchdog, said investors were ignoring the risk of monetary tightening in their voracious hunt for yield.

“Markets seem to be considering only a very narrow spectrum of potential outcomes. They have become convinced that monetary conditions will remain easy for a very long time, and may be taking more assurance than central banks wish to give,” he told The Telegraph.

Mr Caruana said the international system is in many ways more fragile than it was in the build-up to the Lehman crisis. Debt ratios in the developed economies have risen by 20 percentage points to 275pc of GDP since then.

Credit spreads have fallen to to wafer-thin levels. Companies are borrowing heavily to buy back their own shares. The BIS said 40pc of syndicated loans are to sub-investment grade borrowers, a higher ratio than in 2007, with ever fewer protection covenants for creditors.

The disturbing twist in this cycle is that China, Brazil, Turkey and other emerging economies have succumbed to private credit booms of their own, partly as a spill-over from quantitative easing in the West.

Their debt ratios have risen 20 percentage points as well, to 175pc. Average borrowing rates for five-years is 1pc in real terms. This is extemely low, and could reverse suddenly. “We are watching this closely. If we were concerned by excessive leverage in 2007, we cannot be more relaxed today,” he said.

“It may be the case that the debt is better distributed because some highly-indebted countries have deleveraged, like the private sector in the US or Spain, and banks are better capitalized. But there is also now more sensitivity to interest rate movements."

The BIS warned it is annual report two weeks ago that equity markets had become "euphoric". Volatility has dropped to an historic low. European equities have risen 15pc in a year despite near zero growth and a 3pc fall in expected earnings. The cyclically-adjusted price earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index in the US reached 25 in May, six points above its half-century average. The Tobin's Q measure is far more stretched than in 2007.

“Overall, it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally,” it said.

Mr Caruana declined to be drawn on when the bubble will burst. "As Keynes said, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” he said.

The BIS says prolonged monetary stimulus in the US, Europe, and Japan has led to a leakage of liquidity, contaminating the rest of the world. The rising powers of Asia are no longer able to act as a firebreak – as they did after the Lehman crash –and may themselves now be a source of risk.

Emerging markets have racked up $2 trillion in foreign currency debt since 2008. They are a much larger animal than they were during the East Asia crisis of the late 1990s, so any crisis would do more damage. “The ramifications would be particularly serious if China, home to an outsize financial boom, were to falter," it said.

BIS officials doubt privately the whether China can avoid a ‘hard landing’, fearing that the extreme credit growth over the last five years must lead to a financial reckoning. They also doubt whether the aftermath will in the end be easier to deal with in a state-controlled banking system where the Communist Party controls the credit levers.

The annual report suggested that China’s $4 trillion of reserves are a Maginot Line defence. It noted US was also a large external creditor in the 1920s, as was Japan in the 1980s, before each went into deep crisis. “Time and again, in both advanced and emerging market economies, seemingly strong bank balance sheets have turned out to mask unsuspected vulnerabilities that surface only after the financial boom has given way to bust,” it said.

The BIS is the doyen of world’s financial institutions, created in Basel in 1930 to clean up the mess left by German reparations payments under the Versailles Treaty. It has since evolved into the bank of central banks, and lately the bastion of monetary orthodoxy. It issued a crescendo of warnings in the build-up to the Lehman crisis, implicitly rebuking the US Federal Reserve and others for holding interest rates too low, which in their view robs economic growth from the future.

The BIS was vindicated, though not everybody agrees that it was right for the right reasons. Monetarists argue that the Great Recession was due to over-tightening into the downturn. This caused M3 broad money growth to collapse months before the banking crisis.

The BIS backed QE as an emergency measure in early 2009 to avert a deflationary spiral but has long since called for a return to sound money, and even rate rises. "The predominant risk is that central banks will find themselves behind the curve, exiting too late or too slowly," it said.

This has earned BIS a reputation for Austrian School ideology , accused of encouraging crude liquidation. The bank denies this, tracing the bank’s doctrines to the pre-Keynesian Swedish economist Knut Wicksell.

Wicksell posited a “natural rate of interest”. Holding rates too low creates a host of problems. While his model looks like the modern “Taylor Rule” used by the Fed and other central banks, it is different in crucial respects.

Confident in its cause, the BIS more or less indicts the central bank establishment of malpractice. "Policy does not lean against the booms but eases aggressively and persistently during busts. This induces a downward bias in interest rates and an upward bias in debt levels, which in turn makes it hard to raise rates without damaging the economy – a debt trap."

"Systemic financial crises do not become less frequent or intense, private and public debts continue to grow, the economy fails to climb onto a stronger sustainable path, and monetary and fiscal policies run out of ammunition. Over time, policies lose their effectiveness and may end up fostering the very conditions they seek to prevent," it said.

Basel's lonely call for discipline pits it against the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and even Frankfurt these days. It prompted an unusually piquant riposte from London earlier this month. "Has monetary policy aided and abetted risk-taking? I hope so. That's why we did it," said the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane.

"It is good to have the debate,” said Mr Caruana gamely. Yet he refuses to back down. “There is something strange about fighting debt by incentivizing more debt."

He is now skirmishing on a fresh front, questioning the Fed's new enthusiasm for macro-prudential curbs as a first line of defence. "On their own there is little evidence that they can constrain financial imbalances. We don’t think macro-pro can serve as a substitute," he said.

Mr Caruana said the US recovery is not a vindication of monetary stimulus, but evidence that the best answer to "balance sheet recessions" is to clear away the dead wood and unlock resources for new technologies. “The Americans were quite aggressive in forcing recognition of losses and there was a very rapid recapitalisation of the banks. This is why it was successful. The role of quantitative easing is an open question.”

Mr Caruana dismisses the global deflation scare as alarmist, even though Sweden's Riksbank has just abandoned his camp and slashed rates to near zero to avert a Japanase-style trap. Deflation is very unlikely to happen in the West, he insists. Gently falling prices are typically benign in any case. "We should not exaggerate the role of deflation in history," he said.

The Great Depression is the exception, not the rule. Welfare systems and unemployment insurance now make such an outcome almost impossible. "In the 1930s the stabilizers were very different," he said.

Critics are unlikely to accept this assurance since Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Latvia have all gone through depressions over the last six years, and Italy, France and Holland are all close to debt-deflation. The concern is what would now happen to parts of Europe if there were a fresh downturn or an external shock. Debt ratios are higher than they were in the 19th Century. The "denominator effect" of deflation is therefore more destructive today.

The International Monetary Fund has hinted that it might be best for the world to chip away its debt mountain with a few years of inflation, as the US did in late 1940s and early 1950s, armed with financial repression.

Asked whether he would support this form of loss recognition for creditors, Mr Caruana came close to choking. “It must be clearly resisted,” he said.

 

[xulf]

Let's ignore that article.

Up today!

 

[culdeus]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

 

[Politician Spock]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

60 countries' central banks are members of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements

They could coordinate it if they were compelled to.

 

[culdeus]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

60 countries' central banks are members of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements

They could coordinate it if they were compelled to.

And the rest of the world is just told to suck it?

 

[Short Corner]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

60 countries' central banks are members of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements

They could coordinate it if they were compelled to.

And the rest of the world is just told to suck it?

Naw, don't worry about how much they're printing. Hold onto that worthless paper for a rainy day.

 

[Politician Spock]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

60 countries' central banks are members of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements

They could coordinate it if they were compelled to.

And the rest of the world is just told to suck it?

If that were to happen, the whole world is just told to suck it. Those who make the gold make the rules.

 

[George Jefferson Airplane]

So the whole world is going to look like Zimbabwe in about 6 months or so? $70 loafs of bread? $40 ball cream?

 

[NCCommish]

This seems to ignore the fact that we have been exporting our inflation for years. Mainly to China.

 

[FUBAR]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

Wasn't that the plot to Jack Ryan?

 

[Politician Spock]

This seems to ignore the fact that we have been exporting our inflation for years. Mainly to China.

And it worked, until they became wise to it.

 

[Short Corner]

Someone want to explain to me how the whole world can coordinate an inflation event at the same time?

Inflation is relative.

Wasn't that the plot to Jack Ryan?

What book was the movie based on?

 

[Politician Spock]

"We're in the third biggest stock bubble in U.S. History"

Link:http://finance.yahoo.com

 

[McGarnicle]

"We're in the third biggest stock bubble in U.S. History"

Link:http://finance.yahoo.com

So I should consider this good timing to withdraw $40,000 from the 401K?

 

[Politician Spock]

"We're in the third biggest stock bubble in U.S. History"

Link:http://finance.yahoo.com

So I should consider this good timing to withdraw $40,000 from the 401K?

[slaps money on the table]

I'M OUT!!!

 

[NewlyRetired]

So the whole world is going to look like Zimbabwe in about 6 months or so? $70 loafs of bread? $40 ball cream?

The stock market goes up, the stock market goes down.

It is unpredictable when things happen, as evidenced by this thread, over and over again, but we are certainly due for a down cycle eventually. When and how long I will leave to the guys with the crystal balls.

 

[General Malaise]

So the whole world is going to look like Zimbabwe in about 6 months or so? $70 loafs of bread? $40 ball cream?

The stock market goes up, the stock market goes down.

It is unpredictable when things happen, as evidenced by this thread, over and over again, but we are certainly due for a down cycle eventually. When and how long I will leave to the guys with the crystal balls.

I spent 8 years in the most cynical, pessimistic, negative hedge fund on the globe and actively rooted for catastrophe and mayhem to enhance my net worth. It's no way to live. I'm a reformed short seller who firmly believes the world will continue to spin, commerce will continue to hum along and innovation will continue to dazzle and amaze us every step of the way. I used to believe that danger lurked behind every upswing and that every new high in the indices meant an imminent ##### to the growing bubble with a pop that would wipe out portfolios faster than tornado taking out a trailer park. I knew - KNEW - that the housing bubble was going to burst and that home values were going to plummet. I had my best professional year in 2007 when most people were getting abused.

So believing that we are headed for protracted troubled times isn't a large leap of faith for me and yet, I just am not ready to take it yet. The recent rise in home values feels almost organic to me in that rates have remained low, buyers are subjected to stringent lending standards and demand is outpacing supply in the most livable areas of this country. Stocks - while ridiculously overvalued in some cases - are really the only place people can park money for return unless you hunt like hell for yield and are savvy enough to buy the right debt - most aren't. Gold and Silver have consolidated, inflation has been relatively tame, unemployment rates are reasonable (for the most part), political uncertainty seems moderate compared to recent gridlock and country is FINALLY looking for common sense methods of raising revenue WITHOUT raising taxes (legalizing weed and gambling in certain states - a pattern that will be mimicked and frankly speaks to new and exciting freedoms in our great nation).

Yeah, I hear you...stock markets go up AND down and while I have no doubt in my mind that a correction is forthcoming, I don't foresee another financial holocaust like 2008, nor even a great pull back like the tech meltdown of 2000. I felt like there were catalysts to point to in the direction of an opaque crystal ball. I don't feel that way today. And maybe that's what worries me the most. Maybe that's why I should be the most afraid...that I don't sense it.

 

[General Malaise]

I used to believe that danger lurked behind every upswing and that every new high in the indices meant an imminent ##### to the growing bubble with a pop that would wipe out portfolios faster than tornado taking out a trailer park.

OH COME ON!!!!!!!!! Really?

P

R

I

C

K

Take your language filter and shove it up your ###. This is head spinningly stupid, guys.

 

[DiStefano]

I used to believe that danger lurked behind every upswing and that every new high in the indices meant an imminent ##### to the growing bubble with a pop that would wipe out portfolios faster than tornado taking out a trailer park.

OH COME ON!!!!!!!!! Really?

P

R

I

C

K

Take your language filter and shove it up your ###. This is head spinningly stupid, guys.

What's wrong with "penis to the growing bubble"? You have to make the language cultured for the mods, because they are so refined..

 

[Andrew74]

So the whole world is going to look like Zimbabwe in about 6 months or so? $70 loafs of bread? $40 ball cream?

The stock market goes up, the stock market goes down.It is unpredictable when things happen, as evidenced by this thread, over and over again, but we are certainly due for a down cycle eventually. When and how long I will leave to the guys with the crystal balls.

I spent 8 years in the most cynical, pessimistic, negative hedge fund on the globe and actively rooted for catastrophe and mayhem to enhance my net worth. It's no way to live. I'm a reformed short seller who firmly believes the world will continue to spin, commerce will continue to hum along and innovation will continue to dazzle and amaze us every step of the way. I used to believe that danger lurked behind every upswing and that every new high in the indices meant an imminent ##### to the growing bubble with a pop that would wipe out portfolios faster than tornado taking out a trailer park. I knew - KNEW - that the housing bubble was going to burst and that home values were going to plummet. I had my best professional year in 2007 when most people were getting abused.

So believing that we are headed for protracted troubled times isn't a large leap of faith for me and yet, I just am not ready to take it yet. The recent rise in home values feels almost organic to me in that rates have remained low, buyers are subjected to stringent lending standards and demand is outpacing supply in the most livable areas of this country. Stocks - while ridiculously overvalued in some cases - are really the only place people can park money for return unless you hunt like hell for yield and are savvy enough to buy the right debt - most aren't. Gold and Silver have consolidated, inflation has been relatively tame, unemployment rates are reasonable (for the most part), political uncertainty seems moderate compared to recent gridlock and country is FINALLY looking for common sense methods of raising revenue WITHOUT raising taxes (legalizing weed and gambling in certain states - a pattern that will be mimicked and frankly speaks to new and exciting freedoms in our great nation).

Yeah, I hear you...stock markets go up AND down and while I have no doubt in my mind that a correction is forthcoming, I don't foresee another financial holocaust like 2008, nor even a great pull back like the tech meltdown of 2000. I felt like there were catalysts to point to in the direction of an opaque crystal ball. I don't feel that way today. And maybe that's what worries me the most. Maybe that's why I should be the most afraid...that I don't sense it.

The amount of pessimism and sky-is-falling outlook is just going to keep this market going.