Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Seems like outlook for the bond market might be a little gloomier than that of the stock market. It's like people want it to crash, especially those peddling gold and silver on infomercials.
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Get Your Money out of the Market (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Bump.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase. The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Well, it's no longer at 12,997. He nailed that part.Bump.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase. The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Prophetic really.Well, it's no longer at 12,997. He nailed that part.Bump.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase. The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
Mister Martie
Footballguy
5.5% load?One expert is from the Prudent Bear Fund. First, his fund has a 5.5% load and a 1.75% expense ratio, both of which are high. Second, according to Morningstar over the past 5 years, $10K in the S&P has grown to almost $25K, while $10K in his fund would now be worth about $4K.This is akin to Goldman Sachs' calls on oil going to $250 a barrel years ago when they were huge in the commodities business, i.e. made money off of that prediction by getting more people into oil, etc.
This guy wants the market to go down because he needs a 60% correction to get back to even.
Honestly, I think we could easily see a dip soon, but I really don't think it will be that bad at all. I could see the returns slow down and stagnate for a bit, but a 60% correction puts us back at 1997 levels (ignoring the crash in 2009, from which we have recovered). To give you some perspective, the S&P 500 earnings back in 1997 were $58 per share and in 2014 they are around $102 per share.
This guy probably doesn't even care if the market goes down as long as he fishes enough suckers to pay the load. I'm sure he's found plenty.
The_Man
Footballguy
Where we at with this?Well, it's no longer at 12,997. He nailed that part.Bump.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase. The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
George Jefferson Airplane
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Approaching 18k or a very minor movement of about 38.5%Where we at with this?Well, it's no longer at 12,997. He nailed that part.Bump.Over the next four months several factors (including but not limited to Europe and the political mudslinging) are going to result in significant stock market losses IMHO. It may not happen, but I think the likelihood is much stronger than an increase. The Dow is at 12,997 right now.
George Jefferson Airplane
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
FYP[icon] said:
Todem
Footballguy
Screw it.....going to beat my chest here. It's only what I do for living right?
We got an 8% pull back (peak to bottom) end of January through first few days of Feb...opportunity one. Then we got a 10% pull back last month...opportunity 2.
S&P 500 exceeded my expectations and the Dow should settle close or above where I thought...it's not an exact science.
The energy sector is a wonderful opportunity if you never got into some good names. The sector is off 15%ish from it's highs. And those high quality developed Euro stocks are in the liquidating discount bins still. Hard to find too much value in this current market but both those two area's along with a couple of very cheap diversified miners is where I am investing clients new money.
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Insoxicated
pretty impressive call here anti-hucks.
George Jefferson Airplane
Footballguy
Any of these you like?
1 Exxon Mobil Corp. 2 Chevron Corp. 3 Royal Dutch Shell plc 4 Schlumberger Ltd. 5 Pioneer Natural Resources Co. 6 EOG Resources Inc. 7 Total SA 8 BP plc 9 Halliburton Co. 10 Anadarko Petroleum Corp.
Todem
Footballguy
Really like the bolded, and add COP and HP to that list.
And as another play add these 2 diveresified miners
BHP and FCX. Both have global presence, oil and gas interests, mineral sands, gold, silver, nickel, iron ore etc. Both pay a good growing dividend as well.
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tommyGunZ
Footballguy
he was real.
he's probably bankrupt by now if he followed the advice of all the Fortune 100 strategists that were guiding him.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Premier
Footballguy
Does he have an alias? Seems crazy that he just completely went away. Dude was obsessed with trolling this place.
I don't think he's ever used an alias.
every time he was suspended in the past, he always stayed away.
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Todem
Footballguy
No....I re-evaluate the portfolio, forward price to earnings, industry trends, and determine if some stocks have really peaked vs long term holds with covered call writing. I am primarily a long term investor but I have many different clients with different needs.
The average age of my clients are early to mid 50's and I have a portion already retired and income is the primary focus. And of course younger clients where growth is supreme. But risk management is the cornerstone of any decision I make. And re-balancing/tax harvesting will be done in December regardless of where the market is.
I will pull back the allocation to equities slightly. I have been overweight equities since 2009.
Think about this for second. And understand why I think the market still has more legs left. back in October of 2007 the market hit in intra-day high of 14,300 and change. If we look at the Dow currently it is at 17,800 more or less. 24.5% higher than just a hair over 8 years ago. That makes an average annual gain point to point (if you invested in October of 2007 at that high in the 30 Dow stocks and stayed invested not including dividend reinvestment) of just 3.5%
That is barely ahead of the rate of inflation. Let's call inflation at about 2% (historically I use a 3% average inflation rate when I do financial planning for my clients as I like to plan for the worst and save more just in case). So a real average annual of 1.5%. Also PE's were far far higher back then compared to today.
That is a recovery of the economy from the great recession, .stocks are still on a long term basis overall priced at market value. So there is still some value for more growth in the short term...and of course over the long term with global expansion and emerging markets creating 3 new US like economies every 10 years continues growth and of course the real secret compounding income generated from dividends.
Give me solid dividend growing/paying companies and over the long term I know I will out perform banks and bonds. But in your portfolio you should have bonds, convertible bonds, commodities, hard assets, and other hedges to balance the risk. But I am almost always over weight stocks (so for example if your a growth an income type of client I had them over weighted to 60-65% stocks vs the normal 45-50% I typically had them before). The last time I sold everything was June of 2008. I was working for Bank of America back then and had a good pulse on the impending disaster. I saw all the mortgages being handed out to people who had a pulse and could fog a mirror. And I also read the quarterly reports stating in plain English (if you found it) that reserves for loan losses in the first quarter of 2008 exceeded all of 2004,2005,2006 and 2007 combined. At that moment I called every single client of mine (and went to every assistant on the floor who were all in BAC stock and most 25-30 year employees and got them the hell out and 6 of them are my clients today because of that) and at the minimum started selling all bank stocks and many of the more high beta names and built 50% cash. I had a lot of resistance because of capitol gain exposure so most did not sell everything (and they still said they should have listened but hind sight is 20/20). But they still made out really well...only being down on average 12% at the height of the correction and we went in with both hands (into both stocks and bonds as both were destroyed in the great correction/recession) in FEB and MAR of 2009...and here we are.
So no...if your a long term investor and have high quality names and don't need any the money for at least 3 years.....stay invested. Have a real adviser (one whom you trust with it all) review your portfolios. Make sure your risk is matching your asset mix. And don't marry or be emotional about any investment.....ever.
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Yes
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Rude is part of the system. Seems like a genuinely nice person but we can't really trust him to tell us the truth.
Sand
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I love this thread
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know, but I remember that a few years ago when this got bumped, a brief but kind of funny thread started where somebody declared that you'd better get your monkey out of the market. Now. It would get bumped whenever this one went to the top.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Is it finally time? Poor lhucks missed a six year bull market, I'm sure he'll be fine.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
A visionary truly ahead of his time.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Pretty painful day. Leave those losses unrealized, I guess.
John Bender
Footballguy
SHIZNITTTT
Footballguy
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Aug 21 4:30 PM ET
16,459.75
Aug 21 4:30 PM ET
16,459.75
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Insoxicated
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Johnny Rock
Footballguy
Greatest call this Board has ever seen. Sorry Finless. RIP
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
really makes you think
Short Corner
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Told you.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I'd give anything if FC showed up, posted "see, I told you #####es" and then never posted again.
