shader
Footballguy
Each year I try to pinpoint 5 or 6 running backs with adp's above 20 that will surprise and become top 5-10 running backs.
Running back is a position in which the top ten frequently changes from year to year, and being able to lock down a qb and a couple stud WR's in the first three rounds, and then getting stud running backs in rounds 4-8 is a guaranteed way to win your league.
I've historically had pretty good success doing this, pegging Mcfadden and Foster last year, and CJ and Deangelo in 2008.
Also, I'm using the non-ppr ADP from the 8/7 footballguys rankings.
1. Mark Ingram -- Current RB ADP (22). This is the biggest no-brainer in years. I feel more confident about Ingram at his adp than I have about any runner in years. Some worry about Pierre Thomas. That worry is the only conceivable reason that Ingram has an adp of 22 and is behind guys like Jahvid Best, Knowshon Moreno, Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews. Every so often a running back hits the perfect team. It doesn't happen very often that a true stud gets on a perfect offense, but this has happened with Ingram. What we are going to see is what we saw with Faulk in St.Louis, Edgerrin in Indy (pre-injury) and Emmitt in Dallas. Most of the time great rb's (CJ, ADP) get stuck on teams with poor play-calling, poor qb's, poor offensive lines, etc. Ingram lands on a team that makes any running back that gets carries there a fantasy stud. When Julius Jones becomes fantasy relevant, it's easy to realize that any running back that takes snaps in the high octane offense in New Orleans is going to take off. Ingram will be very difficult to stop. Huge running lanes, a stud QB, and playmakers all over the field will give Ingram huge running lanes. I project that Ingram's FLOOR is top 12-13 this year. His ceiling is top 3-5. I also predict that next year he will be a universal top 1 or 2 pick in every dynasty draft around. Some worry about Pierre Thomas, but I won't even get into that discussion, as it is a non-issue.
2. Marshawn Lynch -- ADP (30). Lynch has never been spectacular thus-far in his NFL career. He's had some amazing runs and incredible bursts of potential. Unfortunately he's been stuck on bad offenses with pathetic O-lines. His game-breaking run in the playoffs last year showed what he's capable of. This year the Seahawks have upgraded the O-line in a big way. They also have added some real playmakers at WR and tight end. The only thing keeping this offense from being upper echelon is the precarious QB situation. But seeing that you can get Lynch so late in the draft, it's a risk worth taking. Lynch had two very solid seasons in his first two years, and he's only 25. The competition in Seattle is minimal. Lynch will have every opportunity to be a top back, and a top ten finish is certainly possible.
3. Mikel Leshoure --ADP (34). I'm usually hesitant to draft TWO rookies in re-draft, but I think Leshoure is VERY underrated when it comes to his potential. Jahvid Best is explosive and is a playmaker, but at this point there is no reason to think he will be anything more than Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles. I've always liked Best and I DO think he COULD be very good, but you can't ignore the serious injury risks that he carries. Leshoure is very likely going to run away with the goalline carries and may be just what the Detroit offense is missing. I think Leshoure could be a top 15-20 back even splitting time, due to the explosive offense he's on. If Best gets hurt and/or misses a number of games, Leshoure could easily be a very surprising top 10 running back.
4. Beanie Wells (37). At this point, you can get a starting rb on a pretty good team very late. He's currently the 37th running back being taken, which is unbelievable. Wells certainly disappointed last season, as he was unable to stay healthy and get anything going. Now he faces stiff competition in Ryan Williams. But remember that this coaching staff did draft Beanie, and they are going to give him a chance to be the featured back, at least for a few games. Beanie has gotten himself into great shape and knows this is his big shot. I liken this to Deangelo's third season where he knew the stud rookie was breathing down his neck. With a real QB on the team, the Cardinals offense should be very good, and being in the NFC West is very position for Beanie. Wells should EASILY outperform his draft position and if things go right, could be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
5. Willis McGahee (47). McGahee is 29 years old and aging, but he does have 2 1200 yard seasons and 2 10+ TD seasons. Knowshon Moreno has LOST 15 pounds this off-season and really is struggling with his ability to run the ball through the tackles at training camp. McGahee has been very good in Baltimore as Ray Rice's backup. But he should have no problems beating out Moreno, especially with a coaching staff that has nothing invested in Moreno. McGahee doesn't have the upside that some of the above do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could carve out an 1100 10TD season in Denver, especially if he has a strong pre-season and establishes himself as the primary runner. If nothing out he will VASTLY outperform his adp, though I am sure this ADP will do nothing but rise during the pre-season.
Running back is a position in which the top ten frequently changes from year to year, and being able to lock down a qb and a couple stud WR's in the first three rounds, and then getting stud running backs in rounds 4-8 is a guaranteed way to win your league.
I've historically had pretty good success doing this, pegging Mcfadden and Foster last year, and CJ and Deangelo in 2008.
Also, I'm using the non-ppr ADP from the 8/7 footballguys rankings.
1. Mark Ingram -- Current RB ADP (22). This is the biggest no-brainer in years. I feel more confident about Ingram at his adp than I have about any runner in years. Some worry about Pierre Thomas. That worry is the only conceivable reason that Ingram has an adp of 22 and is behind guys like Jahvid Best, Knowshon Moreno, Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews. Every so often a running back hits the perfect team. It doesn't happen very often that a true stud gets on a perfect offense, but this has happened with Ingram. What we are going to see is what we saw with Faulk in St.Louis, Edgerrin in Indy (pre-injury) and Emmitt in Dallas. Most of the time great rb's (CJ, ADP) get stuck on teams with poor play-calling, poor qb's, poor offensive lines, etc. Ingram lands on a team that makes any running back that gets carries there a fantasy stud. When Julius Jones becomes fantasy relevant, it's easy to realize that any running back that takes snaps in the high octane offense in New Orleans is going to take off. Ingram will be very difficult to stop. Huge running lanes, a stud QB, and playmakers all over the field will give Ingram huge running lanes. I project that Ingram's FLOOR is top 12-13 this year. His ceiling is top 3-5. I also predict that next year he will be a universal top 1 or 2 pick in every dynasty draft around. Some worry about Pierre Thomas, but I won't even get into that discussion, as it is a non-issue.
2. Marshawn Lynch -- ADP (30). Lynch has never been spectacular thus-far in his NFL career. He's had some amazing runs and incredible bursts of potential. Unfortunately he's been stuck on bad offenses with pathetic O-lines. His game-breaking run in the playoffs last year showed what he's capable of. This year the Seahawks have upgraded the O-line in a big way. They also have added some real playmakers at WR and tight end. The only thing keeping this offense from being upper echelon is the precarious QB situation. But seeing that you can get Lynch so late in the draft, it's a risk worth taking. Lynch had two very solid seasons in his first two years, and he's only 25. The competition in Seattle is minimal. Lynch will have every opportunity to be a top back, and a top ten finish is certainly possible.
3. Mikel Leshoure --ADP (34). I'm usually hesitant to draft TWO rookies in re-draft, but I think Leshoure is VERY underrated when it comes to his potential. Jahvid Best is explosive and is a playmaker, but at this point there is no reason to think he will be anything more than Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles. I've always liked Best and I DO think he COULD be very good, but you can't ignore the serious injury risks that he carries. Leshoure is very likely going to run away with the goalline carries and may be just what the Detroit offense is missing. I think Leshoure could be a top 15-20 back even splitting time, due to the explosive offense he's on. If Best gets hurt and/or misses a number of games, Leshoure could easily be a very surprising top 10 running back.
4. Beanie Wells (37). At this point, you can get a starting rb on a pretty good team very late. He's currently the 37th running back being taken, which is unbelievable. Wells certainly disappointed last season, as he was unable to stay healthy and get anything going. Now he faces stiff competition in Ryan Williams. But remember that this coaching staff did draft Beanie, and they are going to give him a chance to be the featured back, at least for a few games. Beanie has gotten himself into great shape and knows this is his big shot. I liken this to Deangelo's third season where he knew the stud rookie was breathing down his neck. With a real QB on the team, the Cardinals offense should be very good, and being in the NFC West is very position for Beanie. Wells should EASILY outperform his draft position and if things go right, could be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
5. Willis McGahee (47). McGahee is 29 years old and aging, but he does have 2 1200 yard seasons and 2 10+ TD seasons. Knowshon Moreno has LOST 15 pounds this off-season and really is struggling with his ability to run the ball through the tackles at training camp. McGahee has been very good in Baltimore as Ray Rice's backup. But he should have no problems beating out Moreno, especially with a coaching staff that has nothing invested in Moreno. McGahee doesn't have the upside that some of the above do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could carve out an 1100 10TD season in Denver, especially if he has a strong pre-season and establishes himself as the primary runner. If nothing out he will VASTLY outperform his adp, though I am sure this ADP will do nothing but rise during the pre-season.
McGahee might be older, but he has been in a supportive role for the past two seasons, so I think he is going to be fresh and ready to go for one more run at it. Perfect storm for him. Solid offense, coach that likes to run the ball.I think he'll start with a 50-50 split, but in camp the difference between Moreno and McGahee seems to be pretty wide thus far. Moreno may shift into a Bush type role, as he seems to impress as a receiver and do nothing to stand out as a running back. Heck, it might be pre-season hype, but Jeremiah Johnson is the guy that might push McGahee the most. He seems to get lots of love from Denver observers.
No I realize that. But Im just saying if he was such a superstar why did he slip to the end of the 1st round? Im not even saying the guy isnt talented. I just think given peyton's history I dont think he will get the touches people seem to think in this thread. I guess we'll see.
