shader
Footballguy
I've made these posts a few years running. I usually like to do these earlier in the year but time and also the uncertainty of the RB position have forced me to push back. Hopefully this can be a guide for anyone drafting tonight, next weekend or for anyone else making pre-season trades.
A quick look at my 2011 picks:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=603898&st=0&p=13402039&hl="go%20get%20these%20guys"&fromsearch=1entry13402039
Mark Ingram
Mikel Leshoure (although who can forecast an injury)
But then I hit a few doubles and a solid home run
Marshawn Lynch -- ADP 30, finished top 5 in non-ppr, number 6 in ppr. HOME RUN
Beanie Wells -- ADP of 37, finished 16 in non-ppr. Double
Willis Mcgahee -- ADP of 47, finished 22 in non-ppr. Double.
As always, here is what I'm after:
Running backs that you can grab later in the draft, that WILL outperform their ADP, and that have a shot at becoming a top ten back if things work in their favor. This allows you to focus on QB's and WR's early. I realize there are a number of these threads circulating, but I've done this for three years, and hopefully some here will benefit from it.
This year, I'm going to do things just a bit different. First I'm going to give you 4 players I really love at their ADP. Then we'll focus on four guys in virtually identical situations. Who you get out of these four is pretty irrelevant, just try and get one or two of them.
(ADP is based off of FBG's ADP rankings, last updated Aug. 20th)
1. Mark Ingram -- (ADP 33) As the resident Ingram homer, did you expect any different?
Ingram's ADP surprises me based on a couple drafts I've been in. Why? Because he seems to get absolutely no love from anyone. Rarely has a unanimous number 1 rookie pick fallen apart so quickly. Why did he fall apart? Injuries and situation. At first glance, the situation seems very similar. That being said, Pierre Thomas and Sproles are not spring chickens, Ivory has virtually fallen off the map, and Ingram remains a first round pick that the Saints gave up a TON to get. As such, I think we'll see an increase in carries from the 12/game that he received last year to around 16 or 17. The increase in carries, and a (hopeful) full 16 games should give Ingram a rock solid 1000 yards and 10 td's. Also, remember Ingram was drafted to be a sledgehammer along the lines of Emmitt Smith. He's one of those players that is supposed to get better as the game goes along. Despite that, he never really got fed the ball as you would expect. With Ingram being completely healthy this year, expect that to change. BJGE numbers is the floor and top 5-10 is the ceiling.
2. Ryan Williams -- (ADP 42) Williams was drafted because obviously the coaching staff was not impressed with Beanie Wells. Wells' inability to stay healthy has kept him from putting up numbers despite consistently flashing talent. Obviously the fact that Williams is coming off of a nasty injury is what is keeping him down in the rankings. But Williams was drafted with the 38th pick for a reason, and thus far has looked quicker and shown more running ability in the pre-season than Beanie. Yes, the QB situation is a nightmare. Yes, Beanie has seniority. But this team is DYING for play-makers and it appears thats what Williams is. He should easily be a top 25 and outperform his ADP. But if he can overtake Beanie and become the primary RB, he could be another back that could threaten the top 10.
3. Stevan Ridley -- (ADP 30) In 2 drafts this year, I've missed the opportunity to draft Ridley, and settled for Vereen much later. My hope was that Vereen would win out and I'd score a home run deep in the back part of the draft. But at this point, every sign there is points to Ridley. Yes, he carries more risk than Vereen, as his ADP is higher, but the upside is through the roof. Last season, BJGE finished 23rd in non-ppr leagues. The high octane offense was the only reason why, because lets face it BJGE is not a very talented back. The difference in him and Ridley was apparent last year, and now there isn't really anything standing in the way. If you give Ridley BJGE's 180 carries, Ridley will no doubt do much better than the paltry 667 yards BJGE got. Also, add in the fact that Ridley's ability should allow him to get more carries than BJGE did. As such, I predict a floor of 230 carries. In this high octane offense, 10 td's should be a slam dunk as well. We are a year in, and have thus far seen nothing that would allow anyone to think that Vereen is the better back. Until that happens, Ridley should be the pick. If he is, I think he should easily finish in the top 15 in non-ppr.
4. Mikel Leshoure -- (ADP 55) Kevin Smith is getting a lot of love, and his solid performance last year is the reason why. But Lesoure has more natural ability, and will be given a real opportunity. Best can't stay on the field, and Kevin Smith hasn't exactly been the picture of health over his NFL career. Leshoure can be had at a ridiculous value right now. I have no idea whether Leshoure beats out Kevin Smith. But the team has more invested in Leshoure and this is an offense that will give a bunch of easy touchdowns to someone. Leshoure's ADP is just too tempting. He's a guy that could finish 10-15th, can be had as the 55th RB and the only thing standing between him and the starting job is Kevin Smith.
Young guys with old vets in front of them: Jacquizz Rodgers (45), Kendall Hunter (60), CJ Spiller (32), and David Wilson (39). -- I can't really choose between the four. I think Hunter, Spiller and Wilson have a bit more talent than Rodgers, but I think Rodgers it the closest to actually taking over, as Turner seems ready to go over the cliff. Frank Gore, Turner, Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw are all guys who are either getting older or who find it impossible to stay healthy. As such, these four young rb's will take over at some point. But will that be 2012? Impossible to say. If Frank Gore stays healthy and runs hard, the carries just won't be there for Hunter to have much of an impact. Although Spiller was a number 8 overall pick, Fred Jackson has been so unbelievable over the past few years, that the Bills just can't get Spiller on the field. Will that continue? The bottom line is that if you can end up with one or two of these four young guys later in your drafts, you are drafting players with high risk and very high upside.
A quick look at my 2011 picks:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=603898&st=0&p=13402039&hl="go%20get%20these%20guys"&fromsearch=1entry13402039
Mark Ingram
Mikel Leshoure
(although who can forecast an injury)But then I hit a few doubles and a solid home run
Marshawn Lynch -- ADP 30, finished top 5 in non-ppr, number 6 in ppr. HOME RUN
Beanie Wells -- ADP of 37, finished 16 in non-ppr. Double
Willis Mcgahee -- ADP of 47, finished 22 in non-ppr. Double.
As always, here is what I'm after:
Running backs that you can grab later in the draft, that WILL outperform their ADP, and that have a shot at becoming a top ten back if things work in their favor. This allows you to focus on QB's and WR's early. I realize there are a number of these threads circulating, but I've done this for three years, and hopefully some here will benefit from it.
This year, I'm going to do things just a bit different. First I'm going to give you 4 players I really love at their ADP. Then we'll focus on four guys in virtually identical situations. Who you get out of these four is pretty irrelevant, just try and get one or two of them.
(ADP is based off of FBG's ADP rankings, last updated Aug. 20th)
1. Mark Ingram -- (ADP 33) As the resident Ingram homer, did you expect any different?
Ingram's ADP surprises me based on a couple drafts I've been in. Why? Because he seems to get absolutely no love from anyone. Rarely has a unanimous number 1 rookie pick fallen apart so quickly. Why did he fall apart? Injuries and situation. At first glance, the situation seems very similar. That being said, Pierre Thomas and Sproles are not spring chickens, Ivory has virtually fallen off the map, and Ingram remains a first round pick that the Saints gave up a TON to get. As such, I think we'll see an increase in carries from the 12/game that he received last year to around 16 or 17. The increase in carries, and a (hopeful) full 16 games should give Ingram a rock solid 1000 yards and 10 td's. Also, remember Ingram was drafted to be a sledgehammer along the lines of Emmitt Smith. He's one of those players that is supposed to get better as the game goes along. Despite that, he never really got fed the ball as you would expect. With Ingram being completely healthy this year, expect that to change. BJGE numbers is the floor and top 5-10 is the ceiling.2. Ryan Williams -- (ADP 42) Williams was drafted because obviously the coaching staff was not impressed with Beanie Wells. Wells' inability to stay healthy has kept him from putting up numbers despite consistently flashing talent. Obviously the fact that Williams is coming off of a nasty injury is what is keeping him down in the rankings. But Williams was drafted with the 38th pick for a reason, and thus far has looked quicker and shown more running ability in the pre-season than Beanie. Yes, the QB situation is a nightmare. Yes, Beanie has seniority. But this team is DYING for play-makers and it appears thats what Williams is. He should easily be a top 25 and outperform his ADP. But if he can overtake Beanie and become the primary RB, he could be another back that could threaten the top 10.
3. Stevan Ridley -- (ADP 30) In 2 drafts this year, I've missed the opportunity to draft Ridley, and settled for Vereen much later. My hope was that Vereen would win out and I'd score a home run deep in the back part of the draft. But at this point, every sign there is points to Ridley. Yes, he carries more risk than Vereen, as his ADP is higher, but the upside is through the roof. Last season, BJGE finished 23rd in non-ppr leagues. The high octane offense was the only reason why, because lets face it BJGE is not a very talented back. The difference in him and Ridley was apparent last year, and now there isn't really anything standing in the way. If you give Ridley BJGE's 180 carries, Ridley will no doubt do much better than the paltry 667 yards BJGE got. Also, add in the fact that Ridley's ability should allow him to get more carries than BJGE did. As such, I predict a floor of 230 carries. In this high octane offense, 10 td's should be a slam dunk as well. We are a year in, and have thus far seen nothing that would allow anyone to think that Vereen is the better back. Until that happens, Ridley should be the pick. If he is, I think he should easily finish in the top 15 in non-ppr.
4. Mikel Leshoure -- (ADP 55) Kevin Smith is getting a lot of love, and his solid performance last year is the reason why. But Lesoure has more natural ability, and will be given a real opportunity. Best can't stay on the field, and Kevin Smith hasn't exactly been the picture of health over his NFL career. Leshoure can be had at a ridiculous value right now. I have no idea whether Leshoure beats out Kevin Smith. But the team has more invested in Leshoure and this is an offense that will give a bunch of easy touchdowns to someone. Leshoure's ADP is just too tempting. He's a guy that could finish 10-15th, can be had as the 55th RB and the only thing standing between him and the starting job is Kevin Smith.
Young guys with old vets in front of them: Jacquizz Rodgers (45), Kendall Hunter (60), CJ Spiller (32), and David Wilson (39). -- I can't really choose between the four. I think Hunter, Spiller and Wilson have a bit more talent than Rodgers, but I think Rodgers it the closest to actually taking over, as Turner seems ready to go over the cliff. Frank Gore, Turner, Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw are all guys who are either getting older or who find it impossible to stay healthy. As such, these four young rb's will take over at some point. But will that be 2012? Impossible to say. If Frank Gore stays healthy and runs hard, the carries just won't be there for Hunter to have much of an impact. Although Spiller was a number 8 overall pick, Fred Jackson has been so unbelievable over the past few years, that the Bills just can't get Spiller on the field. Will that continue? The bottom line is that if you can end up with one or two of these four young guys later in your drafts, you are drafting players with high risk and very high upside.
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He is ridiculously talented. Barring injury (again), the only reason he'll fail is that offensive line... not because he can't play.
