Going against the rankings? (1 Viewer)

[solorca]

I think it would be interesting to see the predictions from the shark pool regarding players that you think will end up well above or well below their current rankings on FBGs. Since the rankings are readily available on fantasypros for free...I think it's fair to include them.

For me, I think the following (I'm using Dodds rankings on fantasypros)...

Vincent Jackson (ranked #9 Non-PPR, #8 PPR) - This one baffles me, as Vincent Jackson has shown time and time again that he fails to perform when he is lined up against a top CB. He's one of the easiest players in the NFL to predict because of this, so I project him to perform well below his rankings because of the matchup with Brandon Flowers. I wouldn't be surprised with a stat-line of around 3/29/0.

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

Brian Hartline (ranked #12 Non-PPR, #11 PPR) - Even if he wasn't facing Cortland Finnegan and the tough Rams secondary, I would think this was an unusually high ranking for Hartline. While I do like him this season, I see no way that he ends up this high at the end of the week against a very tough opponent.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

NE will load up the box. No fear of Wilson and there isn't any reason to be scared.

NE rush defense is top 10 giving up 3.4 ypc to opposing RB's. They've given up 0 runs 20 yards or over in 121 running plays against.

 

[Concept Coop]

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

I don't mind the call. They are projecting slightly over 4YPC, wich might be a tad high. But he is a solid bet for 20 touches - SEA isn't going to stop running. And the Patriots have been giving up points, which could very well lead to a TD for the team's main weapon.

 

[Concept Coop]

I will certainly be starting Wallace over a good number of the 33 listed ahead of him, against the Titans, who don't scare me. He is a much better bet for a TD than Brown, in my opinion, as he always has been.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

FBG's consistently has Sidney Rice ranked too high.

 

[habsfan]

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

I don't mind the call. They are projecting slightly over 4YPC, wich might be a tad high. But he is a solid bet for 20 touches - SEA isn't going to stop running. And the Patriots have been giving up points, which could very well lead to a TD for the team's main weapon.

We've had a bit of a Sid Rice sighting recently. I like him this week for the reasons above.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I don't follow the rankings at all. For IDP kudos, gracias, appreciated.

Overall outside of IDP FBG content is B.A.D. Luckily for me I don't listen and do my own thing. If I did listen I'd have Ingram, Hillman, Hillis on my teams. Glad I use my own noggin.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't follow the rankings at all. For IDP kudos, gracias, appreciated. Overall outside of IDP FBG content is B.A.D. Luckily for me I don't listen and do my own thing. If I did listen I'd have Ingram, Hillman, Hillis on my teams. Glad I use my own noggin.

I think they hit more than they miss, and their track record suggests such. There are always a few things that make me scratch my head each week, but that is bound to happen. We all have our own opinions.I almost always go with my gut, hence starting Wallce. But I use them for what they are, and value them.

 

[solorca]

I don't follow the rankings at all. For IDP kudos, gracias, appreciated. Overall outside of IDP FBG content is B.A.D. Luckily for me I don't listen and do my own thing. If I did listen I'd have Ingram, Hillman, Hillis on my teams. Glad I use my own noggin.

I don't use the rankings as a guide, but I will give a second thought to someone if I see them ranked really high or really low on Dodd's or Bloom's list. I think that's really the most effective way to use them, rather than blindly following the rankings like so many seem to do.I noticed that Dodds dropped all three guys I mentioned in this thread, after I posted it. I won't post the rankings since the updated ones are subscriber only, but I think that Jackson is still too high, and Hartline and Lynch are about right.

 

[Wadsworth]

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

NE will load up the box. No fear of Wilson and there isn't any reason to be scared.

NE rush defense is top 10 giving up 3.4 ypc to opposing RB's. They've given up 0 runs 20 yards or over in 121 running plays against.

Teams have loaded the box against Seattle since Lynch got there. NE's run defense is solid and might limit Lynch's YPC but he is still going to get 20+ touches and the goal line work. RB4-5 this week might be a little high, but he is still a must start on almost any fantasy team. Also, east coast team traveling west is a positive and Seattle just seems to play better at home.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

They all adjust their rankings throughout the week.

 

[solorca]

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

NE will load up the box. No fear of Wilson and there isn't any reason to be scared.

NE rush defense is top 10 giving up 3.4 ypc to opposing RB's. They've given up 0 runs 20 yards or over in 121 running plays against.

Teams have loaded the box against Seattle since Lynch got there. NE's run defense is solid and might limit Lynch's YPC but he is still going to get 20+ touches and the goal line work. RB4-5 this week might be a little high, but he is still a must start on almost any fantasy team. Also, east coast team traveling west is a positive and Seattle just seems to play better at home.

I'll be starting him, but only because of Brandon Marshall's bye week. I love Lynch, but playing in a PPR league, he really isn't a huge producer unless he gets a touchdown. A 100 yard game without a score will only end up getting you about 10-12 points most weeks from him, because of his lack of use in the receiving game. He had 4 catches in the St. Louis game, but he's only had four total in the other four weeks.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I don't follow the rankings at all. For IDP kudos, gracias, appreciated. Overall outside of IDP FBG content is B.A.D. Luckily for me I don't listen and do my own thing. If I did listen I'd have Ingram, Hillman, Hillis on my teams. Glad I use my own noggin.

Funny how guys can't get out of their own way to let everyone know their success (or what they tell you in a forum), but never mention the guys on their team who are doing poorly.

 

[Quibbler]

In fairness to the rankings, I doubt they are straight predictions. I don't know exactly how Dodds does his rankings, but most rankers take in considerations like upside/risk/etc. when making their rankings.

Once you factor that in, Lynch at #4 seems pretty reasonable. It's not a great matchup, but he'll be getting the ball a ton, especially if the weather is as bad as is predicted.

And, IMO, NE's run-D isn't as elite as the numbers might lead you to believe. 1) They've only faced one elite RB (Rice) and they gave up 150 all-purpose yds and a TD to him. 2) If it wasn't for fumbles, they'd have looked a lot worse in the other games too.

 

[GregR]

I think it would be interesting to see the predictions from the shark pool regarding players that you think will end up well above or well below their current rankings on FBGs. ...

If you want to see general trends, can compare Wisdom of the Crowd rankings to the FBG ones.

 

[rickyg]

I tend to agree re; what other posters have said about following rankings.

When I was still a fledgling ff player I followed them religiously, but now I still look at them and internalize them (BC it's always nice to read another informed ff players opinion), but then I go with my own lineup calls.

I agree on hartline this week. I would say he has a chance at sniffing wr 12 numbers if the dolphins fell way behind forcing hartline to air it out. But I don't think the rams offense will do much against a stout Miami d.

I see a low scoring, run heavy game plan for the fins. Lots of Reggie bush and Lamar miller, and I see hartline going 4 or 5 receptions for anywhere from 50-75 yards.

Not bad but only flex worthy this week.

 

[Not Sleeping]

Pittsburgh defense was the consensus #1 start on FantasyPros before last night's game, and the unanimous #1 at CBS. I should have gone against that ranking and started Houston vs. Green Bay as my gut told me to. Even though they ended with 3 sacks, in general there was VERY little pressure put on Hasselbeck. Other than the Pittsburgh name, I'm not sure why everyone was so high on them on the road in Nashville without Polamalu.

 

[solorca]

I think it would be interesting to see the predictions from the shark pool regarding players that you think will end up well above or well below their current rankings on FBGs. ...

If you want to see general trends, can compare Wisdom of the Crowd rankings to the FBG ones.

I suppose, but that's simply looking at where people pick players with no basis behind them. Dodds rankings are the same way, just numbers/spots, while Bloom provides reasoning for when something is out of the norm. I was looking for people to provide points/counterpoints to rankings, providing their reasoning for why they think someone is being considered too high/low.

 

[Judge Smails]

Pittsburgh defense was the consensus #1 start on FantasyPros before last night's game, and the unanimous #1 at CBS. I should have gone against that ranking and started Houston vs. Green Bay as my gut told me to. Even though they ended with 3 sacks, in general there was VERY little pressure put on Hasselbeck. Other than the Pittsburgh name, I'm not sure why everyone was so high on them on the road in Nashville without Polamalu.

Same here. I had some sites rank Pitt #1, and I could see it even with the injuries. CJ's comments, beat by 23+ points in 3 losses, a seemingly must win for Pitt, Mendenhall looking good and no chance of stopping Ben. Blocked punt, hurt Mendenhall - game went a different direction. Still could have been a decent night if Lewis doesn't drop the easiest pick known to man. Minimum 7 point turnaround when you count the pick, lost yards and TN TD on that drive.FBG had AZ #1 against the Bills. I ended up taking the Steelers. 5 lousy points in my league. The only reason I was high on them is I thought they'd get up 20, TN forced to take chances, and sacks/INT's would ensue. Steelers just aren't good.

 

[Nucker101]

I think it would be interesting to see the predictions from the shark pool regarding players that you think will end up well above or well below their current rankings on FBGs. Since the rankings are readily available on fantasypros for free...I think it's fair to include them.

For me, I think the following (I'm using Dodds rankings on fantasypros)...

Vincent Jackson (ranked #9 Non-PPR, #8 PPR) - This one baffles me, as Vincent Jackson has shown time and time again that he fails to perform when he is lined up against a top CB. He's one of the easiest players in the NFL to predict because of this, so I project him to perform well below his rankings because of the matchup with Brandon Flowers. I wouldn't be surprised with a stat-line of around 3/29/0.

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

Brian Hartline (ranked #12 Non-PPR, #11 PPR) - Even if he wasn't facing Cortland Finnegan and the tough Rams secondary, I would think this was an unusually high ranking for Hartline. While I do like him this season, I see no way that he ends up this high at the end of the week against a very tough opponent.

Completely agree with everything you've said.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I don't follow the rankings at all. For IDP kudos, gracias, appreciated. Overall outside of IDP FBG content is B.A.D. Luckily for me I don't listen and do my own thing. If I did listen I'd have Ingram, Hillman, Hillis on my teams. Glad I use my own noggin.

Funny how guys can't get out of their own way to let everyone know their success (or what they tell you in a forum), but never mention the guys on their team who are doing poorly.

I have Stafford, Vick, Donald Brown, beanie Wells, Ryan Williams, Nate Washington, Finley, Lions Defense on one or more of my teams. Happy?Feel free to rip me apart, LOL.

 

[kinghill]

This year I'm keeping track of my picks vs fbguys picks. Specifically the weekly 5-player decision of: RB+RB+WR+WR+FLEX

Thru 5 weeks, I've won 3 weeks, fbguys won 1 week, and we tied 1 week. Total points I'm up 338-293.

Figured if I can beat fbguys rankings I'm doing ok.

 

[Rovers]

Some sites actually use an algorithym to generate rankings. Then they might get tweaked. Rankings are good to look at, but I often go against them. For instance, I notice Tremblay's rankings often deviate from the norm, but I've also seen him overlook players based on injury or opportunity. I look at all three FBG rankings. Then I start the players who I think will, duh, score the most FF points.

If anything bugs me about rankings, it's the 0.4TD probabilty. No matter what happens, you can't be wrong.

It's crystal balling at the most extreme, but I can't count on a 0.4TD. I look at each of my starters and THEN take a best guess at which has the best chance of a TD that given week. Who is more likely to get a TD this week, Gronkowski or Celek? I can't start both even if they both have a 0.4 TD projection.

Some staff are in love with a given team or a given player and continue to over value them. With some observation, I've learned which staff has what particular propensity for over or under valuing a given player or offense, and I wiegh that into where they might rank a player.

 

[Wadsworth]

Rankings are an idiot check for me. I already know who I am likely going to start but check the ranking to see if I am missing something. Sometimes I will see a player ranked much higher or lower than I expected and when that happens I go back and do more research to see if I missed something. The ranking rarely change my mind, but every once in a while I will change my line-up not because of the ranking but because the ranking led me to information I had missed previously.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I don't follow the rankings at all. For IDP kudos, gracias, appreciated. Overall outside of IDP FBG content is B.A.D. Luckily for me I don't listen and do my own thing. If I did listen I'd have Ingram, Hillman, Hillis on my teams. Glad I use my own noggin.

Funny how guys can't get out of their own way to let everyone know their success (or what they tell you in a forum), but never mention the guys on their team who are doing poorly.

I have Stafford, Vick, Donald Brown, beanie Wells, Ryan Williams, Nate Washington, Finley, Lions Defense on one or more of my teams. Happy?Feel free to rip me apart, LOL.

No need. My condolences.

 

[Rovers]

Rankings are an idiot check for me. I already know who I am likely going to start but check the ranking to see if I am missing something. Sometimes I will see a player ranked much higher or lower than I expected and when that happens I go back and do more research to see if I missed something. The ranking rarely change my mind, but every once in a while I will change my line-up not because of the ranking but because the ranking led me to information I had missed previously.

This.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some sites actually use an algorithym to generate rankings. Then they might get tweaked. Rankings are good to look at, but I often go against them. For instance, I notice Tremblay's rankings often deviate from the norm, but I've also seen him overlook players based on injury or opportunity. I look at all three FBG rankings. Then I start the players who I think will, duh, score the most FF points. If anything bugs me about rankings, it's the 0.4TD probabilty. No matter what happens, you can't be wrong. It's crystal balling at the most extreme, but I can't count on a 0.4TD. I look at each of my starters and THEN take a best guess at which has the best chance of a TD that given week. Who is more likely to get a TD this week, Gronkowski or Celek? I can't start both even if they both have a 0.4 TD projection. Some staff are in love with a given team or a given player and continue to over value them. With some observation, I've learned which staff has what particular propensity for over or under valuing a given player or offense, and I wiegh that into where they might rank a player.

Well it is good to have an objective view just based on current season numbers and applying that to strength of schedule considerations to arrive at a base line. These projections get stronger as the season goes on and more data is available as well. But no they should not be the only thing one looks at.This is where playing IDP helps a FF owner make these decisions. As they are more likely to know what opposing defensive tendencies are and what they can do to take the player in question out of the game, or likewise where a team may have a weakness that the offense will exploit. Moreso the later as when playing IDP opportunity comes for the players on bad teams more often than it does for players on the good teams.In the end I think it is good to check your own observations against several others before making a final decision. Picking the right starters each week is a weakness in my game that I have been trying to improve on.

 

[richn]

Rankings are SOMEONE'S OPINION THAT'S IT. When u draft do u just go down a list and select? Rankings are just ONE TOOL to help your opinions. You have to play who YOU like, guess what you might be right and the rankings might be wrong. NO ONE KNOWS HOW THE GAMES WILL PLAY OUT. If you have a valid reason why you like someone, and rankings dont agree, its ok play who you like. Fitz vs Philly is a good example of why the obvious isn't always correct. This week S Rice is ranked way higher than Cobb, does that mean you start Rice cause he's ranked higher? No play who YOU like.

 

[Dought Man]

They have been laughably wrong about Tampa players all year. Fade all bucs

 

[solorca]

I think it would be interesting to see the predictions from the shark pool regarding players that you think will end up well above or well below their current rankings on FBGs. Since the rankings are readily available on fantasypros for free...I think it's fair to include them.

For me, I think the following (I'm using Dodds rankings on fantasypros)...

Vincent Jackson (ranked #9 Non-PPR, #8 PPR) - This one baffles me, as Vincent Jackson has shown time and time again that he fails to perform when he is lined up against a top CB. He's one of the easiest players in the NFL to predict because of this, so I project him to perform well below his rankings because of the matchup with Brandon Flowers. I wouldn't be surprised with a stat-line of around 3/29/0.

Marshawn Lynch (ranked #4 Non-PPR, #5 PPR) - I love Lynch as much as anyone, but he's facing the toughest run defense he's seen so far this season against New England. In addition to that, the one thing that New England excels at is finding their opponents biggest playmaker and doing everything they can to stop them. Lynch is by far the biggest threat for Seattle, so I envision a game where the Patriots sell everything out to stop Lynch, forcing Wilson and company to beat them through the air.

Brian Hartline (ranked #12 Non-PPR, #11 PPR) - Even if he wasn't facing Cortland Finnegan and the tough Rams secondary, I would think this was an unusually high ranking for Hartline. While I do like him this season, I see no way that he ends up this high at the end of the week against a very tough opponent.

Looks like I was right on Hartline (0 catches, 0 targets) and Lynch (assuming he doesn't break off a big run or two before the end of the game), as both guys had really low performances. VJax only had 4 catches for 66 yards, but he had touchdowns on two of the catches...so I was wrong on that one.

 

[solorca]

Rankings are SOMEONE'S OPINION THAT'S IT. When u draft do u just go down a list and select? Rankings are just ONE TOOL to help your opinions. You have to play who YOU like, guess what you might be right and the rankings might be wrong. NO ONE KNOWS HOW THE GAMES WILL PLAY OUT. If you have a valid reason why you like someone, and rankings dont agree, its ok play who you like. Fitz vs Philly is a good example of why the obvious isn't always correct. This week S Rice is ranked way higher than Cobb, does that mean you start Rice cause he's ranked higher? No play who YOU like.

That was the point of this thread. To identify who you think will outperform or underperform their rankings by a significant amount, to get some dialog going. I thought it would be an interesting discussion. Unfortunately, it morphed into a discussion about everyone's individual usage of the rankings.

 

[shadyridr]

matt ryan was ranked #1 on every ranking list i saw this week

 

[solorca]

matt ryan was ranked #1 on every ranking list i saw this week

If the game happened again tomorrow, I think I'd still have him on my list at #1. There wasn't really anything to suggest this would be a poor performance day for him. It's easy to call out rankings after the games have been played.