doeseatplace
Footballguy
Very good points. Wish I had listened
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Why is Malik Nabers Ranked So High.... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Stinkin Ref
- Start date
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
It’s not about being accurate, or even unique. It’s selling the lie “experts” are better than you even when they’re all coming up with the same tired rankings.Every site had him high yet everyone in this thread disagreed. I'd love to know what makes someone a fantasy "expert". Lmfao it's the biggest scam in the world.That's my point. The answer to your question is everyone has him high. That's always the answer. Everyone has him ranked high, or low, or somewhere in between. Rankings are never far off, regardless of where you look.I don't think threads like this are dumb when you are asking for the reasoning behind rankings....I think that is the one element all of us actually crave that we don't get much of.....tell me why you have Nabers ranked #8 this week when he has been performing more like #31 pretty consistently and the vibes in NYG suck right now....I'm not slamming on @Joe Bryant or the website either....just maybe asking for a little extra I guess....maybe that's too much to ask...Maybe in the fantasy football prognostication industry, but not if you're an actual winner in the gambling sector of the industry. Reminds of of an old saying, "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach." Not perfect, but you get the gist. I guess it all depends on what business you're in. Thinking outside the box wins you money but it won't get you on TV.
I hope everyone understands I'm not attacking this website or Joe with these comments, I just think these threads are dumb when all ratings across the entire internet are essentially the same. 1 vs 15? Who cares? 10 vs 25? Who cares? 10 vs 30? Yep...who cares?
Like I said, those who do; do, those who can’t; teach…or in this case find ways to sell readily available information by using pretty packaging.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
I think what it comes down to is ranking a dude in week 13 based on what he did weeks 1-4 when he hasn't sniffed that type of performance in any week since is absolutely laughable. This site did it, every site did it. His QB situation is worse. His coach is in over his head. His teammates have given up. Ranking Nabers so high is groupthink, nothing more, nothing less. Separate yourself from the herd if you want to win.
I guess what I have a problem with is the owner coming in here being all defensive pretending like his rankings are unique to the industry, they're not. This website is well built. It's pretty and some great tools are provided here in one place for free, but the forum is what makes this place truly great. The forum is where you go for new information. The forum is where you go for new ideas. The forum is where you go if you want an edge. Without the forum, this whole thing goes up in smoke, and I don't mean that as to attack anyone or anything, it's just reality.
On a side note, the white knights in here really need to chill. If you're going to sell information, don't get butthurt when that information is dissected. The owner put himself out there by charging for a product. He can defend himself and his business model.
I guess what I have a problem with is the owner coming in here being all defensive pretending like his rankings are unique to the industry, they're not. This website is well built. It's pretty and some great tools are provided here in one place for free, but the forum is what makes this place truly great. The forum is where you go for new information. The forum is where you go for new ideas. The forum is where you go if you want an edge. Without the forum, this whole thing goes up in smoke, and I don't mean that as to attack anyone or anything, it's just reality.
On a side note, the white knights in here really need to chill. If you're going to sell information, don't get butthurt when that information is dissected. The owner put himself out there by charging for a product. He can defend himself and his business model.
Penguin
Footballguy
In reality he's super talented but I think sometimes folks underestimate the more important factors that lead to success or failure.
First, he's a rookie. It takes time to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.
Second, he's had pretty atrocious QB play.
Third, the Giants OLine is still bad.
Fourth, the play calling has been sub optimal.
Fifth, the team stinks and I am of the mind that Daboll has lost the locker room or is on the verge of losing it.
If we're being honest, how well would a rookie Calvin Johnson or Jerry Rice fare in this same situation? Heck Marvin Harrison Jr. has Kyler Murray, ok he's not Dan Marino but he's a huge upgrade over Jones/Cutlets/Lock and what has he done?
First, he's a rookie. It takes time to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.
Second, he's had pretty atrocious QB play.
Third, the Giants OLine is still bad.
Fourth, the play calling has been sub optimal.
Fifth, the team stinks and I am of the mind that Daboll has lost the locker room or is on the verge of losing it.
If we're being honest, how well would a rookie Calvin Johnson or Jerry Rice fare in this same situation? Heck Marvin Harrison Jr. has Kyler Murray, ok he's not Dan Marino but he's a huge upgrade over Jones/Cutlets/Lock and what has he done?
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Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
Start Nabers for Jeanty? I love it.
Runkle
Footballguy
Yeah this is what I said, if you have 3 better guys you play them. Most teams don't. Most teams don't have the luxury.
Ended up scoring 10 in half-ppr, pretty much the middle result in the range. He seemed to be a borderline flex play and that's how it ended up.
Penguin
Footballguy
In redraft he's a sunken cost as are MHJ and Rome.I only play dynasty (21 leagues) and redraft best balls so I don't have to deal with waivers or setting weekly lineups. I think all 3 will be fine long term but this season is shot for them. Ladd McConkey is climbing the ladder, no pun intended, he seems to finally getting his sea legs under him.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think that’s fair. The reason he probably keeps getting ranked so high is that despite the circumstances around him, he produced at a very high level. But the circumstances have changed, much more for the worse as the QB play and inability to sustain drives has torpedoed his production. He’ll still be ok with so many targets, but have to temper expectations - not unlike the guy on the other sideline in Ceedee.
I'd love if they somehow got S.Sanders next yearJacob's Ladder
Footballguy
His immaturity and tendency to hold the ball worry me in the NFL, especially in this offense, but with the right system I also believe he will be a star. Some of the throws he makes are eye-popping and he seems like a very smart kid. If I wanted a QB next year, he's at the top of the mountain in this class for me.
It's not about starting him. It's about him being ranked top 10 on every site for weeks now. It's laughable.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
The draft capital, talent and targets make him a tough sit, truly, but at this point everyone should know what they're getting. A great player in a terrible situation. It's hilarious no one in the industry is willing to step out of their echo chamber and call Nabers what he is at this point, a WR3/Flex.
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Mister CIA
Footballguy
You're that guy from the Jahmyr Gibbs thread. Hahahahaha
Not sure where you're getting this. We were quite a bit different than many of our competitors last week on CeeDee Lamb. Same for kicker Chris Boswell. People were asking why we were and I asked our Staffers to spend time here on the forums going into detail why that was. Some said they found it useful. I'm sorry you did not.
I was clear to say this week for Nabers this week, we were not unique to the industry.
Not sure where that's being defensive.
I provide this free forum so people can discuss players. We'll continue to do that.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
as I said in the OP above since week 7 he has been more in line as WR31.....yet still being ranked consistently in top 10 or so each week during that period by FBG ....as WR31 in a 12 team league....that puts him as a middling WR3.....with WR36 being the last of WR3's.....it doesn't feel like there has been any adjustment to the reality of his situation.....he is more of a WR3/flex play than a smash start WR8.....
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
100% this....That's my point. The answer to your question is everyone has him high. That's always the answer. Everyone has him ranked high, or low, or somewhere in between. Rankings are never far off, regardless of where you look.I don't think threads like this are dumb when you are asking for the reasoning behind rankings....I think that is the one element all of us actually crave that we don't get much of.....tell me why you have Nabers ranked #8 this week when he has been performing more like #31 pretty consistently and the vibes in NYG suck right now....I'm not slamming on @Joe Bryant or the website either....just maybe asking for a little extra I guess....maybe that's too much to ask...Maybe in the fantasy football prognostication industry, but not if you're an actual winner in the gambling sector of the industry. Reminds of of an old saying, "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach." Not perfect, but you get the gist. I guess it all depends on what business you're in. Thinking outside the box wins you money but it won't get you on TV.
I hope everyone understands I'm not attacking this website or Joe with these comments, I just think these threads are dumb when all ratings across the entire internet are essentially the same. 1 vs 15? Who cares? 10 vs 25? Who cares? 10 vs 30? Yep...who cares?
Sometimes they are. We were higher on CeeDee Lambe last week than the consensus among other sites and got a lot of questions on it. That's why I did the thread.
But for Nabers, you're right, we're pretty much in line with what lots of other sites have him ranked this week at WR8. When he's been WR10 for the year in Points per Game.
You've mentioned the bolded twice in this thread. In my league he was the WR2 on ppg average in weeks 1-5 and WR36 from weeks 6-12. So yes he's WR10 on the year but with such a discrepancy I think there needs to be more to the prediction and reasoning than "he's been WR10 for the year".
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
WR1 vs WR10 or 12 is not unique to the industry. WR1 - WR12 are all effectively WR1s. If you rank someone WR1-12, you're not sitting them in any real league. That's a tier, and the entire industry has (wrongly) ranked Nabers there for weeks.
Thanks. It's great to have different opinions. We saw him this week as WR7 in PPR. https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/duration/weekly?pos=wr You have him ranked WR 31 in PPR. Different opinions make the game fun.
He had another big target game yesterday with 13 targets. But obviously, didn't turn those into a lot of points.
As always it'll be interesting to see where he winds up. It's a difficult game. We also missed on Amon-Ra St. Brown who we had ranked as our WR5 in PPR.
For Nabers, can you elaborate on what you mean about the "reality of his situation" changing?
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Thank you. We can disagree there.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
it was kind of mentioned earlier.....the frustrating part is falling back on "he is WR10"....he was WR2 in weeks 1-5.....but since then WR36......FBG (and other experts/sites) haven't seemed to adapt to the reality that he is not what he was in weeks 1-5....and feels you and or your staff are following the herd/groupthink and falling back on his overall ranking and not factoring in what has been happening and adjusting accordingly....if you can't see/understand that I don't know what else to say....what would have been cool is if you guys were different then other sites here....It's like nobody has the guts to rank him in the later 20's or whatever because "he is WR10" on the year.....and we don't get any justification of the WR7 ranking.....so when there is no justification it is hard to understand because the reality of his "current" situation doesn't seem to justify a WR7 ranking...
why do you and/or your staff continue to have him ranked as a slam dunk WR1 when he continues to perform as a WR3/flex since week 5......
What kind of fantasy expert asks this question? You don't think anything has changed since earlier in the season? For one, they lost their all world Left Tackle, for another Jones was let go. Don't get me wrong Jones isn't good but he's a heck of a lot better than Cutlets and Lock.
I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. We're not "falling back" on the fact he's WR10. That's just a fact worth noting.
Our Projections Staff work hard and mostly independently of the industry. I don't know what you mean by "groupthink" there. We've always been adamant about posting what we think.
For "justification", it's primarily an opportunity issue. The offense obviously isn't good, but he's getting an inordinate amount of work there with opportunities.
Opportunities and his situation, and of course his talent all combined to push him to WR7 in PPR for us. (The locker room talk narrative helped a little there although him wanting the ball more when he's already at the top of the league in targets was interesting).
I keep hearing talk about "the guts to rank him ______". Let's be honest, it doesn't take much guts to do anything on rankings. We've been doing this for a while. We've always ranked players where we think they'll produce. There's no reason not to. If anything, it seems like it would be easier to rank him at WR30 as that's where lots of people would rather see him ranked. Having "guts" doesn't factor into where we rank players. We've long thought it best to rank them where we think they'll be and go from there.
But for sure, this is just our take. I have no argument when you rank him WR31. Different opinions are what makes the game fun.
I'm the kind of person that will always ask questions when discussing something to help better understand. I didn't say nothing had changed. I asked him to elaborate. Thanks.
I'm also not sure that Daniel Jones is a heck of a lot better than his backups. But we'll see.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I think some people want people in the industry to make bold calls. If you are ranking CD #1 then he needs to be projected around 30 points in their mind. We can look at the bold predictions thread in this forum and see that’s a fools errand. Your expert projectors who use models to project every target, catch, yes’s, and TD chances know that assigning CD 30 points means either stealing the stats from someone else and likely making two mistakes or bucking the Vegas position which we also know is a losing proposition
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
But we're not "experts."
But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
People like me defending your methodology.
Interesting enough I was the one who pointed out that Nabers was wr31 since September. I’d look Maurile to chime in here. I suspect the answer in his case is that the methodology works most of the time and deviating from in would lead to poorer overall results even if it improved the projections on guys like Nabers.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
I would take any Lion you listed plus Montgomery over Nabers any given week. Shouldn’t they then all be ranked higher?
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
Good God, move on we got it. You make valid points but your inability to let it go along with your hostility reeks of some axe to grind.People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Personally I believe so.I would take any Lion you listed plus Montgomery over Nabers any given week. Shouldn’t they then all be ranked higher?
My point was that there were plenty of people (preseason) who had LaPorta as the top 1-2 TE, ASB in the top 5 at WR, Jameson moving to new levels, along with Gibbs maintaining his rec numbers and Gibbs/Monty having yeears like last year. When you starting adding up where all the rankings would put them in total Receptions and yards, Goff would had to of broken the all time passing records by over 10%. Personally I appreciate projections that build the entire pizza and then start doling out slices, rather than creating a bunch of slices and then ignoring that they don't fit together to make a pizza.
Again I'd love for Maurile to weigh in. If he were to run his model/method and then say you know, Nabers is too high, then does he move those stats to someone else to on the Giants? If he does that and it means more rushing for the Giants, does he increase the TOP for the Giants and lower it for the other team. Now that it is lowered for the other team does he adjust how their total stats are accumulated? I assume that you have to build projections that sort of match the Vegas lines/totals otherwise you are ignoring some of the best data available..
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Personally I'm speaking up to discuss the methodology of the projections. I 100% agree with you on Nabers. What I don't agree with you about is just moving him down the board based on gut. Something is not right with the data going into the model. We should be challenging FBG to figure out why the model isn't working in this instance. That's not going to happen in season on the fly. Someone is going to have to crunch a lot of numbers to come up with a reason why Daniel jones is serviceable for a month and then craters. Once that riddle is solved, they can tweak the model. of course maybe it's not Daniel jones, maybe rookie WRs coming from deep south schools struggling in cold weather?People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
It’s not a gut feeling, it’s statistical trends. Verifiable trends. He hasn’t performed at his peak since week 4. His averages are coming down. These are factual statements. It’s also changes in his team. These factors are quantifiable. Sure, it’s subjective how much weight you give to each factor, but ignoring recency or major changes to a player’s situation will produce bad results. Bad data in, bad data out. My guess is these models need to have higher weighting towards recency. That would be a good place to start.Personally I'm speaking up to discuss the methodology of the projections. I 100% agree with you on Nabers. What I don't agree with you about is just moving him down the board based on gut. Something is not right with the data going into the model. We should be challenging FBG to figure out why the model isn't working in this instance. That's not going to happen in season on the fly. Someone is going to have to crunch a lot of numbers to come up with a reason why Daniel jones is serviceable for a month and then craters. Once that riddle is solved, they can tweak the model. of course maybe it's not Daniel jones, maybe rookie WRs coming from deep south schools struggling in cold weather?People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
ETA-What changed with Daniel Jones? Well, one major factor is their superstar LT’s season ending Lisfranc injury in mid-October.
People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
Thanks for the response. I don't think I'd ever heard the term "white knight" here with that definition. And as you said, I'm capable to "defend" myself, although that's an interesting choice of words.
Mostly, I don't automatically assume someone with an opinion is a "white knight" if they happen to agree with the other person.
We have lots of criticism here. Certainly nothing wrong with that. We get plenty of things wrong. And when you offer your product to the public, people like to let you know. That's life and feedback is part of the deal. I shared a message recently where I was roasted and lost the guy's week for him because we ranked Lamar Jackson over Jayden Daniels. It happens.
I think the record shows for the past 25 years here we've been open in talking about it like we have here. I don't see anyone getting "butthurt," as you said, but maybe I'm overlooking it.
Bottom line, the forums are a great place in my opinion to discuss football and help us all work to get the most accurate predictions possible. It's hopefully a benefit for everyone.
Again though, I don't see anything differentiating about selling predictions.
You said
But we're not "experts."
Not sure what you meant with the "bored" emoji but I only care about whether people can bring insightful opinion to the table. Whether one labels themselves an "expert" or whether they sell a product doesn't matter much to me. Maybe it does to you.
And of course, we give away a ton of our information for free.
As I said, I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
I think this could be a fun idea. The challenge on these always is coming up with a good way to score the predictions. Do you punish the rankings that take a chance but miss? Do you reward the rankings that go alone with the crowd (more common in my opinion) or somewhere in between.
I think this could be a fun part of the subscriber experience as you say and go along with the Subscriber Contest we've had for years where we give away a lot of money.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Great point on the left tackle. Problem is that Darnold loss his left tackle and increased his output from 17.1 to 21.1. Again, I'm not disagreeing with your point as evidenced by the fact that I said this
It’s not a gut feeling, it’s statistical trends. Verifiable trends. He hasn’t performed at his peak since week 4. His averages are coming down. These are factual statements. It’s also changes in his team. These factors are quantifiable. Sure, it’s subjective how much weight you give to each factor, but ignoring recency or major changes to a player’s situation will produce bad results. Bad data in, bad data out. My guess is these models need to have higher weighting towards recency. That would be a good place to start.Personally I'm speaking up to discuss the methodology of the projections. I 100% agree with you on Nabers. What I don't agree with you about is just moving him down the board based on gut. Something is not right with the data going into the model. We should be challenging FBG to figure out why the model isn't working in this instance. That's not going to happen in season on the fly. Someone is going to have to crunch a lot of numbers to come up with a reason why Daniel jones is serviceable for a month and then craters. Once that riddle is solved, they can tweak the model. of course maybe it's not Daniel jones, maybe rookie WRs coming from deep south schools struggling in cold weather?People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
ETA-What changed with Daniel Jones? Well, one major factor is their superstar LT’s season ending Lisfranc injury in mid-October.
I don't think the issue is that FBG is blindly following the rest of the industry, I think an input is missing in the projections model and that's difficult to change on the fly it a verfiable manner that makes sense across all projections.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
Vikings traded for Cam Robinson after losing Darrishaw.Great point on the left tackle. Problem is that Darnold loss his left tackle and increased his output from 17.1 to 21.1. Again, I'm not disagreeing with your point as evidenced by the fact that I said this
It’s not a gut feeling, it’s statistical trends. Verifiable trends. He hasn’t performed at his peak since week 4. His averages are coming down. These are factual statements. It’s also changes in his team. These factors are quantifiable. Sure, it’s subjective how much weight you give to each factor, but ignoring recency or major changes to a player’s situation will produce bad results. Bad data in, bad data out. My guess is these models need to have higher weighting towards recency. That would be a good place to start.Personally I'm speaking up to discuss the methodology of the projections. I 100% agree with you on Nabers. What I don't agree with you about is just moving him down the board based on gut. Something is not right with the data going into the model. We should be challenging FBG to figure out why the model isn't working in this instance. That's not going to happen in season on the fly. Someone is going to have to crunch a lot of numbers to come up with a reason why Daniel jones is serviceable for a month and then craters. Once that riddle is solved, they can tweak the model. of course maybe it's not Daniel jones, maybe rookie WRs coming from deep south schools struggling in cold weather?People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
ETA-What changed with Daniel Jones? Well, one major factor is their superstar LT’s season ending Lisfranc injury in mid-October.
I don't think the issue is that FBG is blindly following the rest of the industry, I think an input is missing in the projections model and that's difficult to change on the fly it a verfiable manner that makes sense across all projections.
ETA - Darnold has averaged 17.795 since Darrishaw went down vs the Rams on TNF. He scored 18.20 in the game Darrishaw was hurt.
Chaka
Footballguy
On behalf of @Grahamburn , @Sunday Gravy and myself can we get someone to fix the above nested quote, the top portion of which got pulled over from the Caleb Williams thread?Vikings traded for Cam Robinson after losing Darrishaw.Great point on the left tackle. Problem is that Darnold loss his left tackle and increased his output from 17.1 to 21.1. Again, I'm not disagreeing with your point as evidenced by the fact that I said this
It’s not a gut feeling, it’s statistical trends. Verifiable trends. He hasn’t performed at his peak since week 4. His averages are coming down. These are factual statements. It’s also changes in his team. These factors are quantifiable. Sure, it’s subjective how much weight you give to each factor, but ignoring recency or major changes to a player’s situation will produce bad results. Bad data in, bad data out. My guess is these models need to have higher weighting towards recency. That would be a good place to start.Personally I'm speaking up to discuss the methodology of the projections. I 100% agree with you on Nabers. What I don't agree with you about is just moving him down the board based on gut. Something is not right with the data going into the model. We should be challenging FBG to figure out why the model isn't working in this instance. That's not going to happen in season on the fly. Someone is going to have to crunch a lot of numbers to come up with a reason why Daniel jones is serviceable for a month and then craters. Once that riddle is solved, they can tweak the model. of course maybe it's not Daniel jones, maybe rookie WRs coming from deep south schools struggling in cold weather?People that feel the need to speak up for you because they think you can’t speak up for yourself. You’re a big boy, and quite successful I presume. You can defend yourself, not that you’re being attacked to begin with. I’m only offering some (fair) criticism of a paid service, one that I paid for, for many years and one of a few factors why I finally cut my subscription. I’m just offering thoughts from one lowly community contributor, and former member of the FBG experience. Take it for whatever it’s worth.OK, let me rephrase. We don't sell our predictions.But we're not "experts."
I don't know why you'd say that. I'd call tons of people here on the forums experts. I've said for years this is some of the smartest fantasy football people you'll find anywhere.
The "bold predictions" thread is a farce anyway so not sure why the previous white knight keeps bringing it up to show us how hard all of this is. We know it's hard, but that's not the point anyone in here is trying to make. That thread is a fun way to put some wild *** predictions on paper and see if anyone can hit. I probably had a lower chance of any of my predictions coming true than I would in predicting the end of the world.
Maybe instead or in addition to the subscriber BB contest which can be quite fun, maybe come up with a rankings contest which could be quite fun. You could publish the picks on Friday or Saturday. Top rankers would be of great use to your membership and/or community.
You keep talking about "white knights". What do you mean by that?
ETA-What changed with Daniel Jones? Well, one major factor is their superstar LT’s season ending Lisfranc injury in mid-October.
I don't think the issue is that FBG is blindly following the rest of the industry, I think an input is missing in the projections model and that's difficult to change on the fly it a verfiable manner that makes sense across all projections.
ETA - Darnold has averaged 17.795 since Darrishaw went down vs the Rams on TNF. He scored 18.20 in the game Darrishaw was hurt.
TIA
