Got questions for the IDP Staff? (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Got questions for the IDP staff?

As Joe and David did a couple weeks back, the IDP staff will answer questions from FBG Nation. We'll be taking general and specific questions about the projections, rankings, plans for 2006 and beyond, teams, players, schemes, drafting strategies, or whatever else IDP is on your mind.

Please post your questions here. We'll get to as many as we can in a moderated interview tomorrow night.

See you there.

 

[Renegades of Funk]

Jene - Looking forward to the interview. Couple things I'm interested in:

1. What to make of the SD safety spots. Mcree will start, but after that I can't get a handle on it. Everything is pointing to Hart starting at SS, but can he hold off Kiel and Jue?

2. Will Thomas Davis produce like Fields did from the strong side in Carolina?

3. Will Travis Laboy finally get healthy and live up to his high draft position?

4. Will Sammy Knight keep his starting job over Pollard?

5. Will Marlin Jackson lock up one of the CB spots for the Colts? If so he should put up nice tackle numbers as a physical corner in the cover 2.

6. Does Erasmus James break out this year?

Thanks.

 

[pretender]

Thanks Jene

1. One question I can think of is the role of Bryan Thomas with the Jets. Currently is listed as a DE - have read he is also working at OLB. Where does FBG think he will be classified at. DE or OLB or both? If he is classified a DE - where would he rank and how would his points project out. If he is classified as a OLB - where would he be ranked in relation to other linebackers.

Edit for more questions.

2. What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Hill who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

3. Monty Beisel - seems to listed as the starting ILB opposite Bruschi yet I don't see much touting of his fantasy value, why - lack of talent? Lack of opportunity next to Bruschi and how much longer can Bruschi play at the level he plays at.

4. How long does it take a team to learn tampa cover 2 defensive scheme. Everyone in the NFC has adopted it except Green Bay. Does that give Green Bay an advantage that all the other teams in their division are switching?

May add more. Thanks!

 

[Beaumont]

1. Will E.J. Henderson, Dontarrious Thomas or Napoleon Harris have much fantasy relevance this year?

2. Is Pisa Tinoisamoa moving into a 3-down WLB spot in the Cover Two and if so why does everyone have him ranked so poorly? Doesn't that make for top 20 potential?

3. Can Gerald Hayes make it back into the MLB spot for the Cards? Does he have three down potential?

4. Does the planned DL rotation in Philly kill the DL value? What are Trent Cole's long term prospects? Are they shot with the signing of Darren Howard?

5. Why aren't the Texans looking for safety help. It seems that Glenn Earl is a lock at SS. Is Earl therefore a very good pick? Will CC Brown have fantasy relevance again? Are either destined for replacement?

6. How will the Ravens use Dan Cody? He is coded in MFL as a linemen ... will he have potential high scoring games playing a hybrid role? Or is he just backup fodder?

These are some issues brewing in the back of my mind ...

 

[Jene Bramel]

Excellent questions guys. This should be fun.

Please keep 'em coming.

 

[Dave Baker]

Excellent questions guys. This should be fun.

Please keep 'em coming.

 

[Beaumont]

Excellent questions guys. This should be fun.

Please keep 'em coming.

Oh, I have many ...7. If Rodney Harrison cant come back, who is the new SS for NE?

8. Will Anthony Simmons take on a 3-down WLB role for the Saints? If so, isnt he undervalued?

9. Can Kendrell Bell come back from a horrible year? If his career is over, does Keyaron Fox have good fantasy prospects? He has been tearing up camp ...

10. Is Stuart Schweigert a good safety with long term prospects? Or is he a bad safety that scored well on a bad Raiders D who is destined to be replaced ...

11. Who wins the SS safety job for Cle, Pool or Jones?

12. What happened to Dwight Smith and if he gets released/dealt does he bounce back into a starting role?

13. Who is Ray Lewis' backup?

14. Does Rod Coleman blow up now that offenses have to focus on Kerney/Abraham?

15. Does Peanut Tillman score well because teams throw away from Vasher? Or can Vasher not tackle? What are Vasher's prospects?

16. Does Fernando Bryant hold the CB2 in the cover two for Detroit? If not, then who? Keith Smith or Stanley Wilson?

17. Who will be the starting CBs for the Rams in Cover Two? Assuming its Butler and Hill, what will become of Ron Bartell? Why did they pay Fakhir Brown like he was a rock star?

18. Danny Clark is the captain of the Raiders Defense, but everone seems to think he is on the outs ... why is that? Is he undervalued or just plain slow and bad?

19. Mike Vrabel ... inside or outside? Does Beisel have any reasonable prospects?

20. How safe is Morlon Greenwood? How safe is Sam Cowart? If Demeco Ryans starts, who does he supplant? Which of the Houston LBs will be in the nickel?

 

[WhoDat]

What do you feel are mistakes made by first or second year IDP players?

The biggest mistake I have made and learned from in IDP play is (blank). What is it and what did you learn?

Who are you best value plays at DE, LB and DB this season?

Who are the most overrated plays at DE, LB and DB this season?

If you could sell one player high right now, who would it be and why?

If you could buy one player low right now, who would it be and why?

What is more important in ranking a player? The player and his talents or the scheme? Why did you select one over the other?

D. Ryans. Do you feel he has the talent to start immediately in Houston? If yes, why. If no, why.

B. Pool. How good will he be this season? Beyond?

Tatupu or Thurman. Who do you take and why?

If I could have one defensive player to build my fantasy defense around, then I would take (blank). Why?

E. Sims. Boom or bust?

What do you see eventually shaking out at the LB position in New Orleans?

The Cowboys team defense. Overrated or undervalued?

 

[houndirish]

1. Channing Crowder showed glimpses of being the player many of us who drafted him expected. However when he truly had the opportunity to shine (During Zach's injury time) he came up woefully short. What's the prognosis moving forward with Crowder? What's a reasonable expectation?

2. Darrion Scott has seemingly been Minnesota's best DE despite the drafting of higher profile guys like Udeze and James. Can Scott still outproduce these guys? Should he be on the radar for 2006?

3. What's the outlook on Seattle linebacker Leroy Hill for 2006? I'm under the impression he'll be a 3 down weakside linebacker which should make him a valuable commodity. What's the realistic expectation of teh guy?

4. Will the overall improvement in the Giants defense and the upgraded secondary result in a dropoff for DB Gibril Wilson?

5. Is this the year DE DwayneWhite finally busts out for the Bucaneers or should the fact that he couldn't beat out Greg Spires tell me everything I need to know?

6. I'm under the impression the Titans are one of those clubs who don't really assign a true strong side/weak side to their linebackers. Instead, they pretty just line up on the same side regardless of the offensive formation. If that's the case, can we expect an improved season from LB David Thornton, who's moving out of the delegated SAM position he played in Indy?

My Sean Jones, Rod Coleman and Thomas Davis questions have already been voiced.

Thanks for doing this guys, I can't wait!

 

[Rovers]

Hartwell- Big disappointment last year.... can he rebound from injury? Will he ever be a 3 down LB?

What do you think of Gaither and Gocong? Is Gaither a viable MLB prospect? Could Gocong be a 3 down SLB some day?

Of the top 5 rookie LB's, pick one or two most likely to bust.

Does Hawk hurt Barnet this year? Or will the GB D be on the field enough to negate Hawk's presence?

How do you feel about this whole new breed of "rush LB'? Guys like Suggs who keep their DE listing are studs.... does the IDP world need to look at some sort of change in positional listings to "even the scales"?

Great idea, looking forward to it!

 

[pretender]

Hartwell- Big disappointment last year.... can he rebound from injury? Will he ever be a 3 down LB?

What do you think of Gaither and Gocong? Is Gaither a viable MLB prospect? Could Gocong be a 3 down SLB some day?

Of the top 5 rookie LB's, pick one or two most likely to bust.

Does Hawk hurt Barnet this year? Or will the GB D be on the field enough to negate Hawk's presence?

How do you feel about this whole new breed of "rush LB'? Guys like Suggs who keep their DE listing are studs.... does the IDP world need to look at some sort of change in positional listings to "even the scales"?

Great idea, looking forward to it!

 

[Jene Bramel]

Wow.

Great questions guys. Unfortunately, since you've seen the detail that some of us (actually all of us) like to put into our posts, there's no way we can get to all of these in 90 minutes or so.

So we're going to do twenty of them. Some general questions, some specific team and player issues. We tried to choose the ones that are not already or won't be covered by our face-off features or spotlights to come. But we certainly had to leave out some good ones.

We'll start the interview around 830 EDT tonight and go until Magaw's fingers fall off or a little after 10pm, whichever comes first.

I expect Clayton will open the thread up for more discussion by tomorrow and I'm planning to put up a second thread tomorrow AM to discuss some of the questions we missed.

We're all looking forward to this and hoping to continue the awesome trend this forum has been moving in over the past year.

 

[imeimex]

How do you see the linebacker situation playing out in Minnesota, Detroit, New Orleans, Houston, and Oakland?

 

[tex]

I've been playing FF for about 14 years now and play almost exclusively in IDP leagues. It seems to be pretty common knowledge that there are a few stud DB's, and the rest are hit and miss. My question is-since there are so many hit and miss DB's and so many easy WW pickups every season for DB's, is there a secret for finding these guys before they break out? Or do you just have to be in the right place at the right time?

 

[imeimex]

How do you see the linebacker situation playing out in Minnesota, Detroit, New Orleans, Houston, and Oakland?

My question was a little vague in the first place. I appreciate the work you guys did tonight. There are several threads discussing these situations, and the situations will not be fully played out until training camp anyways.Thanks again, and if I had more time this afternoon I would have asked a better question.

 

[houndirish]

Great feature fella's. I really enjoyed the Q&A. Thanks for taking the time to run through this stuff.

Every year there seems to be 1-2 nuggets of information that I absorb that I look back on midseason and think "damn that was good information".

I can't help but think this round table will fall into that category.

 

[Rovers]

Something came up and I missed this.... is there a transcript anywhere?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Something came up and I missed this.... is there a transcript anywhere?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=248991&st=0It's posted in the NFL Interview Forum for now, but we'll be moving it over here shortly...

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Something came up and I missed this.... is there a transcript anywhere?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=248991&st=0It's posted in the NFL Interview Forum for now, but we'll be moving it over here shortly...

moved it over here now so people can post in that thread with any additional questions or comments.

 

[Jene Bramel]

WAY too many good questions to get through last night, so I thought I'd take some time and post some thoughts about a few we didn't get to answer.

My thoughts are in blue within the quotes below.

5.  Will Marlin Jackson lock up one of the CB spots for the Colts?  If so he should put up nice tackle numbers as a physical corner in the cover 2.

Dungy has been quoted on a couple of different occasions this spring that Jackson will stay at corner after speculation he'd be moved to safety.  Jackson has exactly the skill set you want in a Cover-2 system and as an IDP owner.  Nick Harper or Jason David are both fairly entrenched as starters apparently.  Harper is 32 and was dinged on a couple of occasions last year and I've never been impressed with David.  All that's needed here is opportunity though.  Jackson, IMO, is a must pickup whenever that opportunity comes.

6.  Does Erasmus James break out this year?

He was really coming around at the end of last season.  Three of his last five games with at least four solos and he beat the Steelers for two sacks in Week 15.  He'll need to prove himself against the run to become an elite fantasy performer, but he could have a Jared Allen type breakthrough this year.

1. One question I can think of is the role of Bryan Thomas with the Jets. Currently is listed as a DE - have read he is also working at OLB. Where does FBG think he will be classified at. DE or OLB or both? If he is classified a DE - where would he rank and how would his points project out. If he is classified as a OLB - where would he be ranked in relation to other linebackers.

I'm strongly biased against OLB who probably aren't good enough to either rack up sacks or tackles in run support, which is how I see Thomas.  My guess is he's listed as a LB - like McGinest was in NE last season - in most leagues.  We have him listed as a LB.  As a LB, he won't be in my top 60 until he shows a couple three consistent games in a row.  He wasn't a worthwhile fantasy option at all as a 4-3 end, so even if he's listed at DL in this 3-4 hybrid while playing a LB-like role, he doesn't excite my any more under that classification.

3. Monty Beisel - seems to listed as the starting ILB opposite Bruschi yet I don't see much touting of his fantasy value, why - lack of talent? Lack of opportunity next to Bruschi and how much longer can Bruschi play at the level he plays at.

I think it's because Ryan Claridge is getting a lot of love from the coaching staff.  And because Bruschi is back full power and Beisel has never been anything special over any meaningful length of time.  Honestly, though, I don't have as good a handle on this situation, so somebody else may have a better answer here.

4. How long does it take a team to learn tampa cover 2 defensive scheme. Everyone in the NFC has adopted it except Green Bay. Does that give Green Bay an advantage that all the other teams in their division are switching?

I don't see any advantage.  In fact, if you look at Brett Favre's performance against the Tampa-2 in recent years, you'd be much more inclined to think that the Pack is at a distinct disadvantage.  The scheme doesn't take any longer to learn than others IMO, but the implementation does, if that makes sense, in that the backers and secondary have to be very quick thinking and instinctual with their dual coverage/run support responsibilities.  And, in general, the more aggressive (Lovie Smith, Perry Fewell) schemes are probably a little easier to play.  I think MIN and DET are going to struggle because their MLB (MIN moreso than DET) aren't as football-intelligent as you'd like them to be.  Quarles and Brackett aren't any great shakes from a pure football standpoint, but both make up for it with really good read-react instincts.  The Mike makes this defense run.

3.  Can Gerald Hayes make it back into the MLB spot for the Cards?  Does he have three down potential?

Maybe.  Denny Green has always been really high on him that's for sure.  Hard to know if the reason that Pace was moved to LB was because he sucked on the line or the Cardinals have realized they suck at backer.  Probably the former since they chose to not address the LB position during the draft.  And I keep seeing notes that Dansby may be moved to the middle but I can't remember seeing anything other than Pace being tried at SLB.  It's possible we may be reading too much into that one.  Three down potential?  Hard to know since he's barely been healthy enough to hold down a starting gig to find out.  Certainly Huff or Darling aren't an obviously better option.

5.  Why aren't the Texans looking for safety help.  It seems that Glenn Earl is a lock at SS.  Is Earl therefore a very good pick?  Will CC Brown have fantasy relevance again?  Are either destined for replacement?

I don't know why the Texans didn't pursue any help at safety in the offseason.  Whoever wins this gig is going to have value, unless the new coaching staff uses last year's playbook, which was to have somebody different in that role every week depending on whether they need cover skills or run support skills.  And I think you have to consider that both are on the chopping block until one of them prove themselves a player.

7. If Rodney Harrison cant come back, who is the new SS for NE?

All signs suggest Rodney will be back at near full strength.  If not, Tebucky Jones, Mel Mitchell, James Sanders are all on the roster and in the mix - but they've all struggled in very places and for various reasons.  Jones probably has the best mix of talent and smarts for the 2 foot thick Belichick playbook.  But the guy who probably wins the gig is former Bengal junker Artrell Hawkins, who the Pats picked up off the bottom of the scrap heap midseason last year.  The guy apparently sold his soul to Beezelbub because he was not the same guy he was earlier in the decade in Cincinnati.  This version was decisive in coverage and more than willing in run support.  He probably turned back into a pumpkin in the offseason, though, so my guess is that Pats are really looking for Harrison to return in form.

8.  Will Anthony Simmons take on a 3-down WLB role for the Saints?  If so, isnt he undervalued?

Maybe and definitely would be.  Nobody knows what's happening in New Orleans, though.  After every mini-camp there was new breaking news.  First, it was that Bockwoldt was the only sure starter and that he was moving to the middle, although Fujita/Bockwoldt/Simmons were taking snaps at every position to give the new coaches some tape to decide what to do with them.  Now it's said that Fincher is the "#3 LB", pushing Bockwoldt to the bench and presumably assuming the starting MLB role.  Your guess is as good as mine.  But if that guy is fully recovered from his wrist injury and has his legs under him, he's going to be a steal for both the Saints and watchful IDPers.

9.  Can Kendrell Bell come back from a horrible year?  If his career is over, does Keyaron Fox have good fantasy prospects?  He has been tearing up camp ...

Meh.  I actually pay pretty close attention to mini-camp "fluff" pieces.  Some are pretty meaningful.  I doubt this one is.  Fox had potential, but proved himself to be injury prone and special teams level talent last year - and Gunther is still around.  I'm also hearing that Bell (and his groin) are all ready for 2006.  Whatever.  That dude was getting dragged through holes by opposing running backs like a four year old behind a Siberian husky last year.  If Bell sucks that hard again this year, Fox may step in, but he won't outpoint Mitchell and DJ.

12.  What happened to Dwight Smith and if he gets released/dealt does he bounce back into a starting role?

New coaching staff doesn't care much for him that's for sure.  All the rumors say that he'll be going back to Tampa, where he ought to beat out Jermaine Phillips or Will Allen for one of the starting safety spots.  There was an article praising both of those guys in a Tampa newsrag this week though, so who knows.  Looks like a Josh Bullocks/Roman Harper safety tandem could happen by this time next year, if not sooner.  Got a pretty big laugh out of the New Orleans papers noting that Omar Stoutmire and Jay Bellamy were getting first team snaps during the last minicamp.  No way that happens.

14.  Does Rod Coleman blow up now that offenses have to focus on Kerney/Abraham?

Boy, if Babineaux or Shropshire succeed in the fatman role on that line I wouldn't want to try to figure out who to block.  If all three of those guys can stay healthy, which has to be a concern, Coleman will almost see one-on-one blocking on every passing down.  He's a real good bet to have another gold standard season for a DT.

15.  Does Peanut Tillman score well because teams throw away from Vasher?  Or can Vasher not tackle?  What are Vasher's prospects?

To me, this is a prime example of why you can accurately predict corner values in many situations, especially where the Tampa-2 is concerned.  Tillman is a much more physical run defender at 6'1", 196 pounds than the 5'10", 180 pound Vasher, who has never been an able or willing tackler.  Also, Tillman doesn't have nearly the cover skills that Vasher does.  Just adds up to many, many more opportunities for Tillman to dent the boxscore.  But Vasher, while not likely to be consistent because of the lack of tackle stats, is worth rostering for spot starts against mistake prone quarterbacks during bye weeks/injury replacements.

16. Does Fernando Bryant hold the CB2 in the cover two for Detroit?  If not, then who?  Keith Smith or Stanley Wilson?

I think Bryant is the guy and one of those guys you should watch pretty closely to see how the Tampa-2 affects his numbers.  If he has a solid first couple of weeks in the tackle columns, get him because it's likely to be a meaningful trend.

Who are you best value plays at DE, LB and DB this season?

Who are the most overrated plays at DE, LB and DB this season?

We're in the process of putting together a collaborative piece detailing at least one overvalued/undervalued/deep sleeper candidate from every team with a publication date of sometime in July.

2. Darrion Scott has seemingly been Minnesota's best DE despite the drafting of higher profile guys like Udeze and James.  Can Scott still outproduce these guys?  Should he be on the radar for 2006?

Until Udeze proves himself the clearly better option (and he may not), Scott deserves to be on the radar.  I haven't looked into this situation, other than to note that James needs to be given his due for his late season performance, but my guess is that Udeze and Scott (and maybe all three ends) will rotate and depress the value of both.  I certainly wouldn't anoint Udeze as a prohibitive favorite here though.  Major shoulder and knee surgeries are important - either could rob him of the strength and leverage he'll need to be successful on the edge against the run.

5.  Is this the year DE DwayneWhite finally busts out for the Bucaneers or should the fact that he couldn't beat out Greg Spires tell me everything I need to know?

I think you answered your own question.  That guy has been on my short list of guys to grab in a hurry when the seemingly inevitable changing of the guard happened.  He's still on the list, but dropping down with every passing year.  Spires may not be a sexy fantasy option, but he's an underrated NFL end and he does exactly what the scheme requires.  Spill plays to the backers by holding his gap and providing a good 7-8 sacks a season.  Despite some promising raw tackle stats, White just hasn't proven to Monte Kiffin that he'll hold up as well as Spires does.  So there he sits.

Hartwell- Big disappointment last year.... can he rebound from injury? Will he ever be a 3 down LB?

See my face-off.  I'm not a fan.  Wasn't impressive in the boxscores last year when healthy.  Unlikely to play on passing downs with Brooking, Williams, Boley, and Reese around.  And the Achilles deal is important, miracles of modern medicine aside.  His ceiling is Jeremiah Trotter-ish, and he'll struggle to reach that with all the talent (Brooking and Milloy) around him to eat into his two down tackle numbers.

What do you think of Gaither and Gocong? Is Gaither a viable MLB prospect? Could Gocong be a 3 down SLB some day?

I'm not confident enough in Gocong's scouting reports to make any predictions on his future value other than to say that I'm not so impressed as to think he can overcome the disadvantages of playing the strong side - three downs or otherwise.  I was pimping Gaither as a sleeper within 30 seconds of his selection.  Shawn Barber has had decent fantasy seasons in the past, but it's no surprise that he's being pushed out the door by Matt McCoy already.  I don't see why Gaither couldn't be a viable MLB.  Sure, he's way undersized by hatchet-wielding Trotter standards, but the Eagles just want an aggressive, quick run stopper in that role.  Gaither can provide that.  He and Freddy Keiaho (and now Tyjuan Hagler) are firmly in my sights to snag at season's end if not sooner.

 

[Rovers]

Just got through reading the "chat" transcript.... very nice job, fellas!

Jene.... thanks for the additional follow up. One item I'd like to bounce around some...

1. One question I can think of is the role of Bryan Thomas with the Jets. Currently is listed as a DE - have read he is also working at OLB. Where does FBG think he will be classified at. DE or OLB or both? If he is classified a DE - where would he rank and how would his points project out. If he is classified as a OLB - where would he be ranked in relation to other linebackers.

I'm strongly biased against OLB who probably aren't good enough to either rack up sacks or tackles in run support, which is how I see Thomas. My guess is he's listed as a LB - like McGinest was in NE last season - in most leagues. We have him listed as a LB. As a LB, he won't be in my top 60 until he shows a couple three consistent games in a row. He wasn't a worthwhile fantasy option at all as a 4-3 end, so even if he's listed at DL in this 3-4 hybrid while playing a LB-like role, he doesn't excite my any more under that classification.

Bryan Thomas.... interesting player. This guy has BLAZING straight ahead speed. That speed never really translated into the NFL, at least so far. As a DE, he ran himself past the pocket much too often, and seemed to have trouble with side stepping, changing direction. He never developed a good inside move, spin or otherwise. He also had trouble trying to back pedal and cover. He isn't bad at run stopping.... better than Abraham, anyway.

Having said all of that.... I disagree with your take on his upside this year. The first thing is I don't think he was ever properly coached. Bryan Cox may well fix that problem. While having never lived up to his draft spot, I remember an ex-Jet named Farrior who never did either, while he was a Jet, anyways!

One question I asked that didn't get an answer was this whole "rush LB" thing. In my leagues, Suggs was listed as a DE.... and was top ten because of that.

If Thomas keeps his listing as a DE.... lookout. Here's why:

More than ANY other player on the Jets defense, Thomas is the most "potentially" versatile. Line him up next to Kimo vonO, and the offense has no clue if he will be a rush DE, drop into coverage, whatever. He goes into a stance, it's a 4-3 look. He stays up, it's a 3-4.... maybe. Kimo can play Tackle in a 4-3.

Mangini wants that sort of versatility on the field. Can this new CS teach Thomas how to use that 4.5 speed effectively? Thomas has also been slowly, but steadilly improving. This new scheme change could be just what the doctor ordered.

Right now, only Vilma is a lock to be an every down player on the Jets front 7, although Ellis won't get many breathers in the rotation. IMO, the next most likely guy to be an every down player is, in fact, Thomas. He is my personal IDP sleeper of the year, as long as he remains listed as a DE, the way Suggs was. Which brings me back to me positional listing question. Suggs was a DE.... then he was lsted as a DE/rush LB. We use the MFL default, with the NFL.com depth chart as the authority in disputes. Well, if a guy like Suggs remained as a DE, since that is what NFL.com uses as the "first" position, Thomas I expect will also be listed as a DE, even if he plays OLB in the 3-4 for more than half the snaps.

I still think the IDP world will have to deal with this new hybrid DE/LB issue, sooner or later. I've been wrong before, but frankly, rarely when it comes to my Jets. I'll know much more once I see some traning camp action.....

 

[Jene Bramel]

Just got through reading the "chat" transcript.... very nice job, fellas!

Jene.... thanks for the additional follow up. One item I'd like to bounce around some...

1. One question I can think of is the role of Bryan Thomas with the Jets. Currently is listed as a DE - have read he is also working at OLB. Where does FBG think he will be classified at. DE or OLB or both? If he is classified a DE - where would he rank and how would his points project out. If he is classified as a OLB - where would he be ranked in relation to other linebackers.

I'm strongly biased against OLB who probably aren't good enough to either rack up sacks or tackles in run support, which is how I see Thomas. My guess is he's listed as a LB - like McGinest was in NE last season - in most leagues. We have him listed as a LB. As a LB, he won't be in my top 60 until he shows a couple three consistent games in a row. He wasn't a worthwhile fantasy option at all as a 4-3 end, so even if he's listed at DL in this 3-4 hybrid while playing a LB-like role, he doesn't excite my any more under that classification.

Bryan Thomas.... interesting player. This guy has BLAZING straight ahead speed. That speed never really translated into the NFL, at least so far. As a DE, he ran himself past the pocket much too often, and seemed to have trouble with side stepping, changing direction. He never developed a good inside move, spin or otherwise. He also had trouble trying to back pedal and cover. He isn't bad at run stopping.... better than Abraham, anyway.

Having said all of that.... I disagree with your take on his upside this year. The first thing is I don't think he was ever properly coached. Bryan Cox may well fix that problem. While having never lived up to his draft spot, I remember an ex-Jet named Farrior who never did either, while he was a Jet, anyways!

One question I asked that didn't get an answer was this whole "rush LB" thing. In my leagues, Suggs was listed as a DE.... and was top ten because of that.

If Thomas keeps his listing as a DE.... lookout. Here's why:

More than ANY other player on the Jets defense, Thomas is the most "potentially" versatile. Line him up next to Kimo vonO, and the offense has no clue if he will be a rush DE, drop into coverage, whatever. He goes into a stance, it's a 4-3 look. He stays up, it's a 3-4.... maybe. Kimo can play Tackle in a 4-3.

Mangini wants that sort of versatility on the field. Can this new CS teach Thomas how to use that 4.5 speed effectively? Thomas has also been slowly, but steadilly improving. This new scheme change could be just what the doctor ordered.

Right now, only Vilma is a lock to be an every down player on the Jets front 7, although Ellis won't get many breathers in the rotation. IMO, the next most likely guy to be an every down player is, in fact, Thomas. He is my personal IDP sleeper of the year, as long as he remains listed as a DE, the way Suggs was. Which brings me back to me positional listing question. Suggs was a DE.... then he was lsted as a DE/rush LB. We use the MFL default, with the NFL.com depth chart as the authority in disputes. Well, if a guy like Suggs remained as a DE, since that is what NFL.com uses as the "first" position, Thomas I expect will also be listed as a DE, even if he plays OLB in the 3-4 for more than half the snaps.

I still think the IDP world will have to deal with this new hybrid DE/LB issue, sooner or later. I've been wrong before, but frankly, rarely when it comes to my Jets. I'll know much more once I see some traning camp action.....

While purists may say that Suggs (and Jason Taylor) are lining up in a LB position, they are functioning as a end a significant percentage of the time. I don't see MFL changing their positions anytime soon.I appreciate your homer knowledge, Rovers, but I've yet to see anything out of Thomas in three seasons that suggests he can get any significant number of tackles in run support, make plays in coverage, or rack up sacks from the edge. I'm not sure any amount of coaching can get make him as capable in any of those areas as Willie McGinest, who has produced numbers in the 50-65 range for LB for years and is generally considered to be the gold standard two way hybrid OLB. Those numbers may translate to 25-35 as a DL, but I'd be surprised if MFL (and others) didn't mark Thomas as a LB for 2006.

 

[Rovers]

Just got through reading the "chat" transcript.... very nice job, fellas! 

Jene.... thanks for the additional follow up. One item I'd like to bounce around some...

1. One question I can think of is the role of Bryan Thomas with the Jets. Currently is listed as a DE - have read he is also working at OLB. Where does FBG think he will be classified at. DE or OLB or both? If he is classified a DE - where would he rank and how would his points project out. If he is classified as a OLB - where would he be ranked in relation to other linebackers.

I'm strongly biased against OLB who probably aren't good enough to either rack up sacks or tackles in run support, which is how I see Thomas.  My guess is he's listed as a LB - like McGinest was in NE last season - in most leagues.  We have him listed as a LB.  As a LB, he won't be in my top 60 until he shows a couple three consistent games in a row.  He wasn't a worthwhile fantasy option at all as a 4-3 end, so even if he's listed at DL in this 3-4 hybrid while playing a LB-like role, he doesn't excite my any more under that classification.

Bryan Thomas.... interesting player. This guy has BLAZING straight ahead speed. That speed never really translated into the NFL, at least so far. As a DE, he ran himself past the pocket much too often, and seemed to have trouble with side stepping, changing direction. He never developed a good inside move, spin or otherwise. He also had trouble trying to back pedal and cover. He isn't bad at run stopping.... better than Abraham, anyway.

Having said all of that.... I disagree with your take on his upside this year. The first thing is I don't think he was ever properly coached. Bryan Cox may well fix that problem. While having never lived up to his draft spot, I remember an ex-Jet named Farrior who never did either, while he was a Jet, anyways!

One question I asked that didn't get an answer was this whole "rush LB" thing. In my leagues, Suggs was listed as a DE.... and was top ten because of that.

If Thomas keeps his listing as a DE.... lookout. Here's why:

More than ANY other player on the Jets defense, Thomas is the most "potentially" versatile. Line him up next to Kimo vonO, and the offense has no clue if he will be a rush DE, drop into coverage, whatever. He goes into a stance, it's a 4-3 look. He stays up, it's a 3-4.... maybe. Kimo can play Tackle in a 4-3.

Mangini wants that sort of versatility on the field. Can this new CS teach Thomas how to use that 4.5 speed effectively?  Thomas has also been slowly, but steadilly improving. This new scheme change could be just what the doctor ordered.

Right now, only Vilma is a lock to be an every down player on the Jets front 7, although Ellis won't get many breathers in the rotation.  IMO, the next most likely guy to be an every down player is, in fact, Thomas. He is my personal IDP sleeper of the year, as long as he remains listed as a DE, the way Suggs was. Which brings me back to me positional listing question. Suggs was a DE.... then he was lsted as a DE/rush LB. We use the MFL default, with the NFL.com depth chart as the authority in disputes. Well, if a guy like Suggs remained as a DE, since that is what NFL.com uses as the "first" position, Thomas I expect will also be listed as a DE, even if he plays OLB in the 3-4 for more than half the snaps.

I still think the IDP world will have to deal with this new hybrid DE/LB issue, sooner or later. I've been wrong before, but frankly, rarely when it comes to my Jets. I'll know much more once I see some traning camp action.....

While purists may say that Suggs (and Jason Taylor) are lining up in a LB position, they are functioning as a end a significant percentage of the time. I don't see MFL changing their positions anytime soon.I appreciate your homer knowledge, Rovers, but I've yet to see anything out of Thomas in three seasons that suggests he can get any significant number of tackles in run support, make plays in coverage, or rack up sacks from the edge. I'm not sure any amount of coaching can get make him as capable in any of those areas as Willie McGinest, who has produced numbers in the 50-65 range for LB for years and is generally considered to be the gold standard two way hybrid OLB. Those numbers may translate to 25-35 as a DL, but I'd be surprised if MFL (and others) didn't mark Thomas as a LB for 2006.

The Jets official site lists Thomas as a DE. That really is the issue here, in my mind, is what his listing will be. Thomas' playing time was limited by playing behind Ellis and Abraham. When he filled in for Abraham, his tackle numbers were respectable. In passing situations, he got little opportunity to get sacks last year, they put him in at Tackle in those situations.

In the 4 games Thomas started at DE in 2005, (weeks 1, 15, 16 and 17), he totaled 13 tackles, 4 assists, 1 sack and 1 pass defensed. That would extrapolate out to 142 points in the scoring my leagues use, good enough to be tied with Simeon Rice at #16 overall in scoring amoung DL's.

This is only my second year in IDP, but so far, from what I've seen, DE's who become hybrid DE/LB's keep their DE listing. Namely, Suggs and Taylor. The new hybrid guys, like Lawson get listed as LB's. I see Thomas' situation to be identical to Suggs and Taylor. It really boils down to this:

How does the NFL.com site decide what is a team's base defense? D Ware is listed as a DE under a player search, but shows up as an OLB in Dallas' depth chart. Miami and Baltimore are still shown as a base 4-3. Thus, Suggs and Taylor remain listed as DE's, while Ware is not. The Jets will look an awful lot like the Miami D this year. NE ran the 4-3 a lot last year, but they keep their base defense on NFL.com as a 3-4. How will NFL.com decide to show the Jets' depth chart? That is the defining authority in my leagues. I also believe that is what MFL's default is as well.

The depth charts at NFL.com appear to match the depth charts at the teams' sites. Which base defense will Mangini chose to be listed as? If he goes with a 4-3, Thomas could be a stud..... because his playing time will be greatly increased, and the Jets D will be on the field a lot. I think Mangini will try to use him much the same way Miami uses Taylor. He'll be the rush LB, and will come from just about anywhere, stunting up the middle, outside rush, etc. He'll also drop into coverage for additional opportunities for passes defensed and INT's.

If Thomas gets relisted as a LB, all bets are off.

 

[pretender]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Allen who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

Edited Hill to Allen

 

[tex]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Hill who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

Don't you mean Jason Allen?

 

[Jene Bramel]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Hill who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

I think it'll be Renaldo Hill and Jason Allen. The safety positions in the Saban scheme are interchangeable. Whichever proves himself more valuable in run support or becomes a stud in coverage (multiple picks and INTs) will be the man. Neither fit the mold of a traditional run stuffing safety, although Hill did pretty well in an up safety position in Oakland's Big Nickel D last year.Travares Tillman is currently projected as the SS starter, but I really think Hill and Allen is where things end up.

For now, I don't think any of the three are clearly valuable. I'm inclined to think Hill, since he's got corner skills and has proven the run stopping ability, but he's not even assured of the starting job. Allen probably has the most football talent, but whether that'll translate into fantasy production remains to be seen.

I'm avoiding this situation altogether in my leagues at this point, but will have an eye on Dolphin training camp for more info.

 

[pretender]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Hill who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

Don't you mean Jason Allen?

to many Hill's and not enough Allen's. Thanks guys, I have both Hill and Allen on my dynasty and not sure if I want to keep both or if I do how long to sign them to (we play with contracts) so I appreciate the information. Will be watching the situation as well and appreciate all the input. Roster space and contract years are at a premium.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

The Dolphins secondary is nearly impossible to figure out. Allen was taken with a high pick but isn't really a SS type since he wasn't all that durable in college. Renaldo Hill is a former CB who was signed to play safety, but he's a much better fit at FS than he is at SS given his size. Deke Cooper has starting experience and I could see him playing SS, but he's not much of a run defender either. The Dolphins really don't have any great big run stoppers that seem like a great fit at SS, but they have several athletic guys who are good in coverage. Hill is probably the most reliable tackler of the group so perhaps he winds up at SS.

This will probably be sorted out in training camp. The only thing I feel reasonably confident in is that Travares Tillman stinks and will be beaten out by somebody. I liked Hill's prospects a bit more before they added Allen on draft day. Now, I'm pretty lukewarm on both.

 

[Warpig]

I was hoping for some nuggets on the following sleepers:

Nick Eason (CLE) - last I heard he was receiving lots of consideration as a starting DE but he shows up as DL. What is his current status?

Josh Stamer (BUF) - I read some positive tidbits on this guy as well.

Spencer Toone (TEN) - He is #2 on the depth chart at WLB (?) in Tennessee. Does he hold value? People seem to be hyping Terna Nande even though he's #4 at MLB.

Marcus Maxey (KC) - does he have a legit chance at getting some considerable playing time this year?

Marcus Hudson (SF) - Possibly a starting safety?

Jarad Page (KC) - headed to the MLB?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I was hoping for some nuggets on the following sleepers:

Nick Eason (CLE) - last I heard he was receiving lots of consideration as a starting DE but he shows up as DL. What is his current status?

Josh Stamer (BUF) - I read some positive tidbits on this guy as well.

Spencer Toone (TEN) - He is #2 on the depth chart at WLB (?) in Tennessee. Does he hold value? People seem to be hyping Terna Nande even though he's #4 at MLB.

Marcus Maxey (KC) - does he have a legit chance at getting some considerable playing time this year?

Marcus Hudson (SF) - Possibly a starting safety?

Jarad Page (KC) - headed to the MLB?

I thought you had a bigger problem than I do until I saw your 32 team league in your sig. On second thought, maybe you do.

Anyway, I don't think Eason has much upside in a hybrid defense at either DE or NT even if he earns a starting job, but I'll admit I don't know enough to be confident.

Maxey has a very good chance at playing time this year. Edwards and Cunningham have had good things to say about him this preseason and the Chiefs don't have squat at corner behind Surtain. Not to mention that Herm isn't shy about playing rookies in key positions early.

I think the Chiefs are going to have a hard time justifying a high enough signing bonus to Jarrad Page to keep him from going to MLB. He was just a seventh rounder.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Allen who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

Edited Hill to Allen

A little followup on this discussion for you...From the Miami Herald.

At safety, Jason Allen and Renaldo Hill are in good position to seize starting roles with good training camps. In reserve are Travares Tillman and Yeremiah Bell, who are considered to be ahead of ex-Jaguar Deke Cooper.

Veterans keep buzzing about Allen -- defensive end David Bowens said he rarely has seen a Dolphins safety with the ability ''to come from the opposite side to break up a pass'' like Allen can.

 

[pretender]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Allen who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

Edited Hill to Allen

A little followup on this discussion for you...From the Miami Herald.

At safety, Jason Allen and Renaldo Hill are in good position to seize starting roles with good training camps. In reserve are Travares Tillman and Yeremiah Bell, who are considered to be ahead of ex-Jaguar Deke Cooper.

Veterans keep buzzing about Allen -- defensive end David Bowens said he rarely has seen a Dolphins safety with the ability ''to come from the opposite side to break up a pass'' like Allen can.

Am I correct in my belief that Miami plays a 4-3 base and if that is the case it would be the SS not the FS that would be in the position to get more points thru tackles etc. So seeing as I own both Hill and Allen - if they both start and Allen is FS and Hill is SS following true to form - Hill would be the better fantasy player more opportunities playing closer to LOS. But, if Allen is the better athelete - even at FS might he be the more valuable player? I know training camps haven't started etc etc but, just some thoughts on the value of each player and what is known of Hill from his stint with the black and silver and Allen's college career.

 

[Renegades of Funk]

I like Jason Allen quite a bit more than Hill. Allen is a playmaker and even from the FS spot I would expect him to be the better option. In a dynasty format I don't even see it as a contest with Allen being the clear choice.

 

[Tick]

Am I correct in my belief that Miami plays a 4-3 base and if that is the case it would be the SS not the FS that would be in the position to get more points thru tackles etc. So seeing as I own both Hill and Allen - if they both start and Allen is FS and Hill is SS following true to form - Hill would be the better fantasy player more opportunities playing closer to LOS. But, if Allen is the better athelete - even at FS might he be the more valuable player? I know training camps haven't started etc etc but, just some thoughts on the value of each player and what is known of Hill from his stint with the black and silver and Allen's college career.

I don't think anyone's sure whether Miami's a 4-3 or 3-4. They'll be some form of hybrid, but I don't have a clue as to the percentages. If someone does, please share.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

one interesting thing about allen is that he reportedly broke the tennessee record for tackles by a non-LB (not sure if for a season or career)... he looked freaksihly fast in his combine 40, so coupled with his tackling chops he might be able to make plays all over the field & be an atypical startable FS in IDP leagues.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What about the Miami secondary. With picking up Reynaldo Hill and drafting Jason Allen who is a CB but was quoted by Miami or someone that he was drafted to play safety - who will be the starters and who will be the most valuable fantasy players in their secondary?

Any thoughts on this Jene or IDP guys?

Edited Hill to Allen

A little followup on this discussion for you...From the Miami Herald.

At safety, Jason Allen and Renaldo Hill are in good position to seize starting roles with good training camps. In reserve are Travares Tillman and Yeremiah Bell, who are considered to be ahead of ex-Jaguar Deke Cooper.

Veterans keep buzzing about Allen -- defensive end David Bowens said he rarely has seen a Dolphins safety with the ability ''to come from the opposite side to break up a pass'' like Allen can.

Am I correct in my belief that Miami plays a 4-3 base and if that is the case it would be the SS not the FS that would be in the position to get more points thru tackles etc. So seeing as I own both Hill and Allen - if they both start and Allen is FS and Hill is SS following true to form - Hill would be the better fantasy player more opportunities playing closer to LOS. But, if Allen is the better athelete - even at FS might he be the more valuable player? I know training camps haven't started etc etc but, just some thoughts on the value of each player and what is known of Hill from his stint with the black and silver and Allen's college career.

Without getting too technical, Saban's defense is a 3-4 that plays very much like a 4-3 for fantasy purposes. By definition, it's probably a 3-4 because of gap assignments, but Jason Taylor has more DE than OLB responsibilities and Zach Thomas plays more like a MLB than ILB.With regard to the safeties, Fin insiders suggest that they're interchangeable positions. I actually doubt that'll be the case in practice because I think that means that both need to play well in run support and pass coverage. One of the safeties, however, will almost certainly have more run support duty than the other.

So, yes, if the "FS" proves to be the better run supporter, he'll have better tackle stats and be more valuable in most leagues. If that player gets decent coverage stats as well, you could have a very valuable fantasy option.

Hill has experience as a corner, so he has adequate cover skills, and played a DB role in the Raiders' Big Nickel defense last year that brought him up near the LOS. He had decent stats in the role. I did not see many Raider games last year, but I didn't hear any grumblings about poor tackling or coverage from the coaches. That's why I've contended that he'll earn a starting safety job over Tillman and the rest.

Allen is a wild card. He's got the rare combination of size and speed at either corner or safety and was successful in both roles at Tennessee. It really would've been nice to see how he performed at FS over his entire senior season, but he showed a willingness to hit and good adaptation of his cover skills to the safety spot as a junior according to scouting services.

Both look like reasonable options on paper. Whether either truly becomes one, or which one proves more valuable than the other is tough to determine right now. I really think this one won't be cleared up until after the season starts. We'll know who starts, but you'll have to watch the boxscores to decide who will become the better fantasy option.