Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Wrote this article over at Smartfootball, and thought the Shark Pool would enjoy it as well:
http://smartfootball.com/stats/analyzing-nfl-running-games-through-10-weeks
http://smartfootball.com/stats/analyzing-nfl-running-games-through-10-weeks
Rest of article available here: http://smartfootball.com/stats/analyzing-nfl-running-games-through-10-weeksAs teams — and by extension, their opponents — become more prolific at passing, the opportunity cost of not passing increases. That makes an unsuccessful run particularly damaging. A run on third and short that forces a punt, or a run on 1st or 2nd down that makes it harder for his team to move the chains, hurts a team more significantly than ever before. In the ’70s, the running game was supposed to win games for teams, as running was a more effective optionthan passing. In some ways, the goal of the running game now is to not mess things up for the passing game, by forcing a punt or an unfavorable third down situation.
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So to analyze NFL running games so far this season, I decided to use my own version of rush success rate. Here’s exactly what I did:
I looked at every play from scrimmage where the running back was credited with a carry. Note that all carries by non-running backs were specifically excluded. I then removed all instances of 3rd or 4th down carries where the player needed to gain more than 5 yards for a first down. It doesn’t feel right blaming the runner for not gaining 7 yards on 3rd and 7, so I have simply eliminated all failures from the data. However, on the rare occasions where a running back did convert for the first down, those plays were not removed. This has only happened 21 times this season, highlighted by an Arian Foster 16-yard run on 3rd and 15 against the Ravens.
For all 3rd or 4th downs, a success is defined as gaining the first down. A failure is every rush that does not gain a first down. On all downs, a first down (which includes a touchdown) is a success.
On all second downs, a success is achieved when the player gains at least 50% of the yards needed for the first down. This means that 2nd-and-10 runs are failures unless they pick up 5 yards; on 2nd-and-7, the running back must gain at least 4 yards. A rush for one yard on 2nd-and-3 is a failure, and so on.
On first down, a running back is credited with a successful play if he gains at least 40% of the yards needed; therefore, four yards are required on 1st-and-10 before the running back is given credit. On 1st and goal from the 5, a two-yard gain would be considered a success.
Using this criteria, 49% of all running plays by running backs have been successful this season. The average gain on all carries was 4.34 yards.
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Team Car Succ Succ% RshYd YPCNOR 233 132 56.7% 1109 4.8BUF 185 102 55.1% 1050 5.7NWE 203 110 54.2% 861 4.2SDG 213 115 54.0% 904 4.2DAL 207 111 53.6% 1039 5.0PIT 226 120 53.1% 967 4.3PHI 190 100 52.6% 983 5.2ARI 196 102 52.0% 745 3.8HOU 323 167 51.7% 1498 4.6CIN 224 114 50.9% 876 3.9MIN 199 101 50.8% 971 4.9GNB 187 93 49.7% 774 4.1WAS 177 88 49.7% 705 4.0NYG 218 107 49.1% 789 3.6SFO 214 105 49.1% 1027 4.8IND 202 99 49.0% 849 4.2OAK 233 114 48.9% 1190 5.1NYJ 211 103 48.8% 780 3.7MIA 214 104 48.6% 858 4.0CAR 159 77 48.4% 747 4.7CHI 212 102 48.1% 1019 4.8DEN 217 104 47.9% 1040 4.8JAX 247 118 47.8% 1003 4.1CLE 192 91 47.4% 643 3.3STL 202 95 47.0% 906 4.5TAM 160 75 46.9% 726 4.5KAN 228 105 46.1% 965 4.2ATL 227 103 45.4% 964 4.2BAL 190 84 44.2% 767 4.0SEA 175 77 44.0% 686 3.9DET 182 74 40.7% 750 4.1TEN 197 78 39.6% 659 3.3The top three teams may surprise you. The most publicized portion of the Saints’ running game has been the failure of Mark Ingram to live up to high expectations. And while there’s nothing impressive about his 340 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns or 3.7 yards per carry average, his 58% success rate is something to be lauded. That high rate has been equaled by the other newcomer to the Saints backfield, Darren Sproles. To be clear, the differences end there: not only does Sproles have an incredible 6.8 yards per carry average, his 60 catches rank third in the league and his 1,604 all-purpose yards lead the NFL. As Chris described, Sproles is the top space player in the game today. Throw in Pierre Thomas’ also outstanding success rate (56%), and one could fairly attribute much of the success of the Saints rushing game to the offensive line. New Orleans a fantastic pair of run-blocking guards in Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks, while fullback Jed Collins has been masterful filling the void left by the retired Heath Evans.In Buffalo, it’s all about Fred Jackson. His 57% success rate trails only Ben Tate among running backs with at least 100 carries. The Bills have looked terrible the last two weeks, but Jackson’s fantastic season continues. He leads the NFL in rushing yards, yards per game and yards from scrimmage, while averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry and recording an incredibly high success rate. Jackson’s ability is finally being recognized, but did you know that BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ 57% success rate ranks third in that category? And that’s after a couple of miserable games (perhaps due to injury) against the Steelers and Jets. Danny Woodhead (53%) and Stevan Ridley (49%) have been slightly less successful, but the Patriots have been a very effective team on the ground this season. It’s tempting to give Brady or Brees credit for that because of the respect defenses must pay them, but don’t forget that many Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers teams in years past struggled to run the ball despite having fantastic passing attacks. The Jets running attack has declined each season as Mark Sanchez progresses from a rookie to third year quarterback. There isn’t anywhere near the correlation between passing and rushing success in the NFL as there it as the lower levels of play. If anything, I’d credit Brady because of his ability to check to and from running plays based on how the defense is lined up (but again, see Manning, Peyton).
In fact, while Rivers is having his worst season in years, the Chargers running game has never been better post-Tomlinson. Mike Tolbert has the lower yards per carry average but the higher success rate, while Ryan Mathews has been the big play running back for the Chargers. Together, the duo give San Diego a fantastic running attack that is shockingly the strength of the team. Just last season, the Chargers led the league in net yards per pass and net yards per pass allowed while being stout against the run; San Diego has regressed everywhere but the running game (and special teams) this season.
Houston’s running attack has received praise throughout the football world, and I’m not going to tell you that Arian Foster, Ben Tate and the Texans’ offensive line aren’t fantastic. The Texans are 3rd in rushing yards and 2nd in rushing touchdowns (on a per game basis), so the stats back up the theory. But those statistics also reflect the fact that the Texans have had the highest points differential during their average play of any team this season. The Texans have led after the first quarter in nine of ten games thus far; on average, Houston is leading by 11.6 points at halftime. That’s played a key role in the high raw rushing totals, as Houston has at least 32 carries in each of their seven wins but fewer than 25 carries in each of their three losses. Lest one be led to believe that the Texans’ problem in their losses is that they are simply not running frequently enough, the issue is that the Houston running backs have recorded a 56% success rate in wins but just a 37% success rate in losses. There’s no doubt that Houston has a great running game, but I’m curious to see how their rushing production changes once they play in more competitive games. Unfortunately, that’s almost certainly bound to happen now.
On the other end of the spectrum, there’s no way to put Chris Johnson and the Titans in a positive light. Even with Johnson gaining over 100 yards against the Panthers this weekend, it was more methodical than explosive: Tennessee running backs had 33 carries for 149 yards. Tennessee still ranks 32nd in rushing yards even after their best rushing performance of the season.
I wrote about the Baltimore Ravens incredibly high adjusted pass-to-rush ratio for the New York Times’ blog last week. While we all love Ray Rice, his low success rate is likely playing a part in the offensive philosophy. Rice (46%) and Ricky Williams (42%) have not done enough to dissuade Cam Cameron from shifting the team’s offensive philosophy, even if the passing attack is led by Joe Flacco. On 70 first-and-ten rushes, Rice is averaging 4.0 yards per carry but only succeeding on 44% of his carries; Williams has been even worse, with just a 36% success rate on 1st-and-10 and a 3.5 yards per carry average. That doesn’t make life easy on an offensive coordinator. But then again, calling 52 pass plays and only five runs for Rice is shifting things way too far in the other direction, and won’t exactly appease many fans.
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