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Greece Financial Crisis Thread (1 Viewer)

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Rohn Jambo said:
flapgreen said:
I'm not taking up for Goldman. That was an actual question. I'm not that educated on the mess that's happened over there. They paid Goldman to help them lie and now it's sounds like they're considering sueing Goldman for taking the money.
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Here is an old article on the Greece CDS:http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_best_policy/2012/03/credit_default_swaps_how_wall_street_is_gaming_the_greek_bailout_.html
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Thanks RJ - much better way to say what I was trying to say.

 
Tsipras should just walk out and get Greece off the Euro. :violin:

"Europe in its infinite wisdom decided to deal with this bankruptcy by loading the largest loan in human history on the weakest of shoulders What weve been having ever since is a kind of fiscal waterboarding that has turned this nation into a debt colony.

[The eurozone] resembles a fine riverboat that was launched on a still ocean in 2000. And then the first storm that hit it, in 2008, started creating serious structural problems for it. We started leaking water. And of course, the people in the third class, as in the Titanic, start feeling the drowning effects first."

--Yanis Varoufakis

Clearly, the Nazis are giving him an offer that he can only refuse.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11734869/Greece-must-rediscover-the-spirit-of-Marathon-to-burst-its-euro-shackles.html

 
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An assessment of Greece’s situation prepared over the weekend by the finance ministers put Greece’s financing needs at between €82 billion and €86 billion over the next three years. That sum is significantly larger than the €74 billion previously reported and is around €30 billion more than the €53.5 billion request made by Greece on Thursday for what would be its third bailout package since 2010.

Greece already has more than €300 billion in debt.
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cstu said:
An assessment of Greece’s situation prepared over the weekend by the finance ministers put Greece’s financing needs at between €82 billion and €86 billion over the next three years. That sum is significantly larger than the €74 billion previously reported and is around €30 billion more than the €53.5 billion request made by Greece on Thursday for what would be its third bailout package since 2010.

Greece already has more than €300 billion in debt.
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It's just a big poker game where the chips are IOUs.

 
Forbes, of all places...

It’s very difficult indeed to design plans for Greece that are actually worse than that one the European Union is trying to impose upon that benighted country. Decades of enforced poverty in order to maintain a currency (and possibly even a political order) that the country should never have embraced, should never have been allowed into, just isn’t one of those things that would win you a gold star in your high school economics class. Everyone from Milton Friedman to Paul Krugman, with a few insignificant bag carriers like myself bringing up the rear, has been screaming that the problem is the euro and while that remains so will the problem.

However, amazingly, the German finance ministry seems to have managed to come up with a plan that is even worse. They’re suggesting that the European Union should run, directly, the Greek economy. Overturn the elected government of a sovereign state, turn the place into a mere satrapy of the technocrats in Brussels and….well, words rather fail at that point. If they think that people in Athens shouting about Nazi war crimes and reparations is a bit rude at present then they’re going to have something of an awakening as the full richness of Greek invective is let loose on this idea.

And sadly I’m not in fact making this up: they really are suggesting that Brussels take over the running of the Greek economy:
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One way or the other, the Greeks will be defeated. They will accept a deal from the creditors they don’t want, one that will doom them to another decade of austerity-induced recession, maybe depression. Or they will reject the deal and watch their economy collapse virtually overnight.

The defiant country will have fought its creditors to the very end, perhaps foolishly, but with pride. Oxi – No – was Greece’s war cry against the Italians in the Second World War, when Benito Mussolini, his troops amassed in Albania, issued Greece an ultimatum: Surrender or face invasion. The Greek counteroffensive forced the Italians into full retreat.

One way or the other, the Germans will be defeated too. But unlike the Greeks, their defeat will not be a proud one. If Greece is pushed out of the euro zone – the verdict should be known by early next week – the queen of Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will have presided over destruction of the region’s southeastern flank and opened the door to other defections. Who next? Portugal? Spain? Italy?

And if she rams a deal down the throats of the Greeks, she will be seen as the bully European leader who kept the euro zone family nominally intact by locking the disobedient child into a mouldering basement and throwing away the key.

To be sure, the Greeks are their own worst enemies, and their sins – from never-ending, industrial-scale tax evasion to serially incompetent and corrupt governments – are well documented. That’s the story the creditors like to spin; they do it well and they’re not wrong. What you don’t hear is how the creditors, notably Germany, took a bad situation and made it worse. In roads littered with cans, they took every opportunity to kick them.

Let’s forget for the moment that Greece had no right joining the euro in the first place; with a little help from its sleazy Wall Street friends, it covered up the true extent of its debt. Let’s also forget that European banks and bond investors were happy to keep funnelling cheap money into Greece during the pre-Lehman Bros. boom era even though Greece’s debt to gross domestic product ratio was rising by an alarming 10 per cent a year.

As the effective leader of Europe, Ms. Merkel’s chief fault was dithering, in the apparent belief that time would cure all evil. She was dead wrong.

In 2010, Germany and the rest the European Union put the kibosh on a Greek default on its private debt that, had it gone ahead, would have wiped out some €200-billion ($283-billion) of its liabilities. They did so because the default shock probably would have crippled more than a few European banks, which were still reeling from the global financial crisis. In came the first of two bailouts (combined total about €240-billion), much of which, in effect, went to bail out the hapless European banks that were exposed to Greece.

Banks saved, Greece sacrificed. The fiscal adjustment that was forced onto Greece in exchange for the bailouts was brutal, which led to Germany’s second big mistake: Failure to dilute austerity when Greece was drowning.

The May, 2010, staff projections made by the International Monetary Fund, Germany’s political-cover partner in the Greek bailouts, tells the story of austerity gone mad. The projections said real GDP growth would return in 2012 and reach 3.8 per cent by 2015; instead Greece’s GDP fell by more than 25 per cent, and it’s back in recession after a brief flirtation with growth last year. They said unemployment would peak at 14.8 per cent; it went to 27 per cent. Debt would go to 140 per cent of GDP; instead, it went to 180 per cent, in good part because GDP itself – the denominator in the ratio – fell so much.

By 2012, it was apparent that piling austerity onto Greece was backfiring badly. Yet the EU, led by Germany, and the IMF kept tightening the austerity screws. At the same time, they talked about “social fairness,” a term they still use today as they insist on more cutbacks. Is it any wonder that Syriza, the radical left, anti-austerity party, could thrive amid such misery?

In the 2009 election, the year before anyone had heard of austerity, Syriza won 4.6 per cent of the vote. In the 2012 election, it won almost 27 per cent. In the 2015 election, its 36-per-cent share thrust it into power. In the July 5 referendum, the No side, which was endorsed by Syriza, took 61 per cent. Germany might say that no good deed goes unpunished. It “saved” Greece and, in return, was handed a hostile, anti-austerity Greek government. Syriza was the inevitable reaction to a fiscal adjustment program taken too far at the wrong time.

Now Ms. Merkel’s drive for European integration is seeing her unleash her hard-### Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, on the annoying Greeks. At the same time, the German government is giving the impression that it is calling the shots at the allegedly apolitical European Central Bank. In the past two weeks, the ECB has twice refused to boost the emergency loan assistance program to the Greek banks, forcing them to shut their doors and to ration daily ATM withdrawals to €60, even though the banks have not been declared insolvent.

Mr. Tsipras also pushed too hard, and his ridiculous referendum, complete with a confusing question, is turning into a Pyrrhic victory. The creditors took it as a snub and showed no mercy. By the end of the week, Mr. Tsipras found himself offering up reforms and cutbacks that were deeper than the ones he offered last month, before the talks collapsed.

Imagine if Ms. Merkel had shown commanding leadership three or four years ago and taken charge of the Greek file. Imagine if the Greeks were allowed to default on their debt and that an austerity package that emphasized growth measures over tax hikes and spending cuts had been put in place. Instead, the wounds in a tiny country were allowed to fester to the point that it has threatened to wreck Ms. Merkel’s dream of a united Europe.
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wdcrob said:
One way or the other, the Greeks will be defeated. They will accept a deal from the creditors they don’t want, one that will doom them to another decade of austerity-induced recession, maybe depression. Or they will reject the deal and watch their economy collapse virtually overnight.

The defiant country will have fought its creditors to the very end, perhaps foolishly, but with pride. Oxi – No – was Greece’s war cry against the Italians in the Second World War, when Benito Mussolini, his troops amassed in Albania, issued Greece an ultimatum: Surrender or face invasion. The Greek counteroffensive forced the Italians into full retreat.

One way or the other, the Germans will be defeated too. But unlike the Greeks, their defeat will not be a proud one. If Greece is pushed out of the euro zone – the verdict should be known by early next week – the queen of Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will have presided over destruction of the region’s southeastern flank and opened the door to other defections. Who next? Portugal? Spain? Italy?

And if she rams a deal down the throats of the Greeks, she will be seen as the bully European leader who kept the euro zone family nominally intact by locking the disobedient child into a mouldering basement and throwing away the key.

To be sure, the Greeks are their own worst enemies, and their sins – from never-ending, industrial-scale tax evasion to serially incompetent and corrupt governments – are well documented. That’s the story the creditors like to spin; they do it well and they’re not wrong. What you don’t hear is how the creditors, notably Germany, took a bad situation and made it worse. In roads littered with cans, they took every opportunity to kick them.

Let’s forget for the moment that Greece had no right joining the euro in the first place; with a little help from its sleazy Wall Street friends, it covered up the true extent of its debt. Let’s also forget that European banks and bond investors were happy to keep funnelling cheap money into Greece during the pre-Lehman Bros. boom era even though Greece’s debt to gross domestic product ratio was rising by an alarming 10 per cent a year.

As the effective leader of Europe, Ms. Merkel’s chief fault was dithering, in the apparent belief that time would cure all evil. She was dead wrong.

In 2010, Germany and the rest the European Union put the kibosh on a Greek default on its private debt that, had it gone ahead, would have wiped out some €200-billion ($283-billion) of its liabilities. They did so because the default shock probably would have crippled more than a few European banks, which were still reeling from the global financial crisis. In came the first of two bailouts (combined total about €240-billion), much of which, in effect, went to bail out the hapless European banks that were exposed to Greece.

Banks saved, Greece sacrificed. The fiscal adjustment that was forced onto Greece in exchange for the bailouts was brutal, which led to Germany’s second big mistake: Failure to dilute austerity when Greece was drowning.

The May, 2010, staff projections made by the International Monetary Fund, Germany’s political-cover partner in the Greek bailouts, tells the story of austerity gone mad. The projections said real GDP growth would return in 2012 and reach 3.8 per cent by 2015; instead Greece’s GDP fell by more than 25 per cent, and it’s back in recession after a brief flirtation with growth last year. They said unemployment would peak at 14.8 per cent; it went to 27 per cent. Debt would go to 140 per cent of GDP; instead, it went to 180 per cent, in good part because GDP itself – the denominator in the ratio – fell so much.

By 2012, it was apparent that piling austerity onto Greece was backfiring badly. Yet the EU, led by Germany, and the IMF kept tightening the austerity screws. At the same time, they talked about “social fairness,” a term they still use today as they insist on more cutbacks. Is it any wonder that Syriza, the radical left, anti-austerity party, could thrive amid such misery?

In the 2009 election, the year before anyone had heard of austerity, Syriza won 4.6 per cent of the vote. In the 2012 election, it won almost 27 per cent. In the 2015 election, its 36-per-cent share thrust it into power. In the July 5 referendum, the No side, which was endorsed by Syriza, took 61 per cent. Germany might say that no good deed goes unpunished. It “saved” Greece and, in return, was handed a hostile, anti-austerity Greek government. Syriza was the inevitable reaction to a fiscal adjustment program taken too far at the wrong time.

Now Ms. Merkel’s drive for European integration is seeing her unleash her hard-### Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, on the annoying Greeks. At the same time, the German government is giving the impression that it is calling the shots at the allegedly apolitical European Central Bank. In the past two weeks, the ECB has twice refused to boost the emergency loan assistance program to the Greek banks, forcing them to shut their doors and to ration daily ATM withdrawals to €60, even though the banks have not been declared insolvent.

Mr. Tsipras also pushed too hard, and his ridiculous referendum, complete with a confusing question, is turning into a Pyrrhic victory. The creditors took it as a snub and showed no mercy. By the end of the week, Mr. Tsipras found himself offering up reforms and cutbacks that were deeper than the ones he offered last month, before the talks collapsed.

Imagine if Ms. Merkel had shown commanding leadership three or four years ago and taken charge of the Greek file. Imagine if the Greeks were allowed to default on their debt and that an austerity package that emphasized growth measures over tax hikes and spending cuts had been put in place. Instead, the wounds in a tiny country were allowed to fester to the point that it has threatened to wreck Ms. Merkel’s dream of a united Europe.
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How come this sounds like it's everyone else's fault except Greece's?

 
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Because you can't read? :shrug:

Plenty of blame to go around and the article above doesn't let the Greeks off at all.

 
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wdcrob said:
Germany may or may not get what they want from the Greeks, but they're going to blow Europe apart.
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I said this when the Euro was created and it's coming true today - the Euro will not survive without federalization.

How could it? The only way the thing works is out of trust for the individual countries but what's in it for them not to go on a spending spree? Worst case scenario for countries like Greece is that they get kicked out of the Euro, have their debts erased, and go back to their old currency - in Greece's case effectively gaining $300 billion in the process.

 
cstu said:
wdcrob said:
Germany may or may not get what they want from the Greeks, but they're going to blow Europe apart.
Click to expand...
I said this when the Euro was created and it's coming true today - the Euro will not survive without federalization.

How could it? The only way the thing works is out of trust for the individual countries but what's in it for them not to go on a spending spree? Worst case scenario for countries like Greece is that they get kicked out of the Euro, have their debts erased, and go back to their old currency - in Greece's case effectively gaining $300 billion in the process.
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But the bullying by ASSPEN Merkel makes me want to root for the underdog.

 
wdcrob said:
Forbes, of all places...

It’s very difficult indeed to design plans for Greece that are actually worse than that one the European Union is trying to impose upon that benighted country. Decades of enforced poverty in order to maintain a currency (and possibly even a political order) that the country should never have embraced, should never have been allowed into, just isn’t one of those things that would win you a gold star in your high school economics class. Everyone from Milton Friedman to Paul Krugman, with a few insignificant bag carriers like myself bringing up the rear, has been screaming that the problem is the euro and while that remains so will the problem.However, amazingly, the German finance ministry seems to have managed to come up with a plan that is even worse. They’re suggesting that the European Union should run, directly, the Greek economy. Overturn the elected government of a sovereign state, turn the place into a mere satrapy of the technocrats in Brussels and….well, words rather fail at that point. If they think that people in Athens shouting about Nazi war crimes and reparations is a bit rude at present then they’re going to have something of an awakening as the full richness of Greek invective is let loose on this idea.And sadly I’m not in fact making this up: they really are suggesting that Brussels take over the running of the Greek economy:
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It's not only Aspen Merkel and her cronies, Hollandaise Sauce is not really on the side on the Greek people.

 
There would in effect be a takeover, for years, of Greece by Berlin, Brussels and the IMF in Washington.

Monitors, from the IMF, would be permanently stationed in Athens, to prevent backsliding by the administration.

Privatisation proceeds would be put into some kind of escrow account, possibly in Luxembourg.

Athens would be deprived of even a figleaf of national economic autonomy.
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cstu said:
wdcrob said:
Germany may or may not get what they want from the Greeks, but they're going to blow Europe apart.
Click to expand...
I said this when the Euro was created and it's coming true today - the Euro will not survive without federalization.

How could it? The only way the thing works is out of trust for the individual countries but what's in it for them not to go on a spending spree? Worst case scenario for countries like Greece is that they get kicked out of the Euro, have their debts erased, and go back to their old currency - in Greece's case effectively gaining $300 billion in the process.
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The bolded is wrong.

ETA: Academic now, Greece has capitulated

 
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"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.

 
LONDON – Greece and its European partners may have agreed on a new bailout provision, but how the Greek economic tragedy will actually end remains a mystery. One thing, however, is certain: eurozone governments will end up writing off a large proportion of their loans to Greece. Their refusal to recognize that reality has increased the losses they will suffer.

To be sure, the Greek government has, at times, been provocative and unrealistic, failing to accept, for example, the need for serious pension reform. But the eurozone authorities’ refusal to accept the need for debt relief has been equally divorced from reality. Three weeks ago, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde’s called for talks to resume “with adults in the room.” That means facing facts.

In this sense, the IMF’s latest Debt Sustainability Analysis, published on June 26, is a grown-up document. It makes clear that Greece’s debts will not be sustainable without further concessional loans and an extension of existing debt maturities; perhaps, it suggests, a write-off of some €50 billion ($55 billion) will also be needed. But even these calculations are based on unrealistic assumptions.

Previous bailout agreements presumed that Greece would run a primary budget surplus (before interest payments) of 4.5% of GDP pretty much permanently. The IMF has revised that assumption downward, to 3.5%. But this still ignores the reality that Greeks can walk away from their debts – not only metaphorically, by defaulting, but also literally, by migrating to Germany, for instance.

As long as Greece remains a member of the European Union, its taxpayers can walk away, just as Detroit’s did in the decades before its bankruptcy. If remaining in Greece means living in a country where taxes are always 10% higher than public expenditures, many – especially the young and talented – will do just that.

It has been clear for five years that Greece’s debts are unsustainable. It was also obvious that the private-sector debt write-down of 2012 would have to be followed by an official one. But the eurozone authorities refused to offer debt relief to the previous Greek government, and instead imposed more severe austerity than was necessary.

As a consequence, Greece’s recession deepened; its already-unsustainable debt swelled further; and the anti-austerity Syriza party rose to power. The prolonged uncertainty drove Greeks to withdraw their bank deposits, the cash for which came from the €90 billion of emergency liquidity assistance provided by the European Central Bank. That money will be re-denominated in devalued new drachmas if Greece leaves the eurozone.

In promising that Germany would suffer no debt write-off, Chancellor Angela Merkel made a promise she couldn’t keep. Worse, by maintaining that stubborn position, eurozone negotiators have ensured that the eventual write-offs will be even larger.
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snip

But appropriate future reforms cannot change the fact that, today, Greece’s debts are unsustainable. Adult negotiators have to face two realities: large debt write-offs are inevitable, and punishing Greece further will not put the eurozone on the path to financial discipline. For that, systemic reform is essential.
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At this point, I don't understand why Greece just doesn't leave the Euro, default, haircut the debt themselves, and start over. It can't be any worse than what they'll have to do under this package. Putting up 50 billion collateral is just a joke. Yeah, lets sell off out state assets to Germany...I'm sure that'll go over well...nevermind all the other onerous demands in the agreement.

 
If you lower or remove pensions then the pensioners have less money to spend, which hurts businesses, hurts revenue, and if the pensioners suffer too much they will just turn to the government for aid. What good does that do?

 
wdcrob said:
"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.
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:lmao:

 
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msommer said:
wdcrob said:
"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
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Would gladly take a bet that a communist (or related left-wing) party rules Greece in the next ten years.

And this "deal" accomplishes absolutely nothing, except to increase the size of Greece's bankruptcy when it eventually comes. The depression will continue and there's no way Greece is going to turn over the 50b in "collateral" to Germany when they default. Wars have started over far less.

 
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msommer said:
wdcrob said:
"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
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msommer said:
wdcrob said:
"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
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think Germany in the 20s

 
wdcrob said:
msommer said:
wdcrob said:
"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Would gladly take a bet that a communist (or related left-wing) party rules Greece in the next ten years.

And it this "deal" accomplishes absolutely nothing, except to increase the size of Greece's bankruptcy when it eventually comes. The depression will continue and there's no way Greece is going to turn over the 50b in "collateral" to Germany when they default. Wars have started over far less.
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I'm not going to bite on the stinky bait.

I stand by my original comment

ETA: That goes doubly for Fennis ;)

 
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The EU should also stipulate that the Greek National Anthem be changed to "Everything is Awesome" and be played on a continuous loop in all banks, government offices, schools and discotheques.

 
Sammy3469 said:
At this point, I don't understand why Greece just doesn't leave the Euro, default, haircut the debt themselves, and start over. It can't be any worse than what they'll have to do under this package. Putting up 50 billion collateral is just a joke. Yeah, lets sell off out state assets to Germany...I'm sure that'll go over well...nevermind all the other onerous demands in the agreement.
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Because banks discovered when Argentina did this that it wasn't all that great for bankers. And since bankers ultimately make all the decisions, they're not letting Greece "decide to do this," no matter what the voice of the people says. In fact, we've already seen that play out, as the Greek people shouted in massive consensus a few weeks back that that's exactly what they wanted...which wound up in capitulation.

Bankers don't lose in a world governed by bankers. :shrug:

 
wdcrob said:
"Debts that can't be paid, won't be paid."

Destroying a country in the name of extend and pretend is just so dumb. All that's happened tonight is to guarantee Europe has a failed state ready to be radicalized on its border.
Click to expand...
The EU may have been facing this either way. Perhaps within the EU the chaos can be controlled. The Greeks were about to enter mayhem, total batsht crazy mayhem. All of their currency was about to go defunct, they were going to have to issue script as "Drachma" perhaps. Basically maybe this is like the druggie brother who has to be kept close to home because as bad as it is having him around if you let him go you will know he will just be dead on the streets in a few days, no good choices here.

 
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Freelove said:
Sammy3469 said:
At this point, I don't understand why Greece just doesn't leave the Euro, default, haircut the debt themselves, and start over. It can't be any worse than what they'll have to do under this package. Putting up 50 billion collateral is just a joke. Yeah, lets sell off out state assets to Germany...I'm sure that'll go over well...nevermind all the other onerous demands in the agreement.
Click to expand...
Because banks discovered when Argentina did this that it wasn't all that great for bankers. And since bankers ultimately make all the decisions, they're not letting Greece "decide to do this," no matter what the voice of the people says. In fact, we've already seen that play out, as the Greek people shouted in massive consensus a few weeks back that that's exactly what they wanted...which wound up in capitulation.

Bankers don't lose in a world governed by bankers. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Greece tried their non-violent version of Fight Club - bankers aren't having it.

 
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timschochet said:
If you lower or remove pensions then the pensioners have less money to spend, which hurts businesses, hurts revenue, and if the pensioners suffer too much they will just turn to the government for aid. What good does that do?
Click to expand...
The pension age needs to be raised about 10 years.

 
timschochet said:
If you lower or remove pensions then the pensioners have less money to spend, which hurts businesses, hurts revenue, and if the pensioners suffer too much they will just turn to the government for aid. What good does that do?
Click to expand...
We're seeing the Austrian school of economics at work. Lovely, isn't it?

 
msommer said:
cstu said:
wdcrob said:
Germany may or may not get what they want from the Greeks, but they're going to blow Europe apart.
Click to expand...
I said this when the Euro was created and it's coming true today - the Euro will not survive without federalization.

How could it? The only way the thing works is out of trust for the individual countries but what's in it for them not to go on a spending spree? Worst case scenario for countries like Greece is that they get kicked out of the Euro, have their debts erased, and go back to their old currency - in Greece's case effectively gaining $300 billion in the process.
Click to expand...
The bolded is wrong.ETA: Academic now, Greece has capitulated
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Greece has a "Check It, Erase It" campaign to say that their debt is illegal.

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/04/08/greece-parliament-video-greek-debt-check-it-erase-it/

 
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