***OFFICIAL*** Bank Failure/Crisis Thread (1 Viewer)

[Chadstroma]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

 

[culdeus]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

I mean I guess. I have to think most people have a couple credit cards and bills on auto pay and the only interaction they have with a local bank is the occasional ATM drop by.

 

[Chadstroma]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

I mean I guess. I have to think most people have a couple credit cards and bills on auto pay and the only interaction they have with a local bank is the occasional ATM drop by.

Who is talking about customer service (though, yes, you will get way better service).

Big banks SUCK for the consumer. Absolutely suck.

You pay more and get less for the privilege of banking with them.

 

[culdeus]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

I mean I guess. I have to think most people have a couple credit cards and bills on auto pay and the only interaction they have with a local bank is the occasional ATM drop by.

Who is talking about customer service (though, yes, you will get way better service).

Big banks SUCK for the consumer. Absolutely suck.

You pay more and get less for the privilege of banking with them.

I guess. I use Schwab. Free ATM free bank wires free checks. :Shrug:

 

[Chadstroma]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

I mean I guess. I have to think most people have a couple credit cards and bills on auto pay and the only interaction they have with a local bank is the occasional ATM drop by.

Who is talking about customer service (though, yes, you will get way better service).

Big banks SUCK for the consumer. Absolutely suck.

You pay more and get less for the privilege of banking with them.

I guess. I use Schwab. Free ATM free bank wires free checks. :Shrug:

Schwab isn't a big bank

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Desert_Power]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

No. There are around 30 banks total in Canada.

 

[culdeus]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

No. There are around 30 banks total in Canada.

Got the king on the money yet?

 

[humpback]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

 

[culdeus]

MSN

www.msn.com

I mean there is the alternative explanation that he's too big to fail and getting bigger by buying other **** banks is an infinite money glitch. So pouring FUD on the fire can only help that.

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

You are right... the economy is strong and growing stronger and nothing but clear skies ahead. In fact, every American is on their way to be a millionaire if not billionair by the end of 2024. Go team!

 

[humpback]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

You are right... the economy is strong and growing stronger and nothing but clear skies ahead. In fact, every American is on their way to be a millionaire if not billionair by the end of 2024. Go team!

Yep, that's exactly what I said.

Do you even read these terrible hot takes that you post? For starters, this one's about the debt ceiling, which is totally different from this thread topic, but the title is completely misleading. He said he doesn't expect the country to default on it's debt, but if it did, it would be potentially catastrophic. Well, no ****, but as he said, it isn't likely to happen. Misleading clickbait nonsense.

The economy isn't in great shape, but even your doom-and-gloom self expects a ~1% contraction. Stop the presses. I mean, we're WAY overdue for a recession and we'd barely even notice a 1% drop, the Fed would sign off on that right now.

I get it. Your industry has been decimated by the rise in rates so you're feeling it but it's long overdue. There will be pain, but the reality is many of the jobs lost would never have been created in the first place if it weren't for the biggest expansionary policies in history. You didn't expect to keep shooting fish in a barrel forever did you?

 

[Stoneworker]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

I mean I guess. I have to think most people have a couple credit cards and bills on auto pay and the only interaction they have with a local bank is the occasional ATM drop by.

Small/mid-size banks hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans.

Almost 70% of small firms' commercial and industrial loans are from banks with less than $250 billion in assets and 30% from banks with less than $10 billion in assets.

That's who.

 

[The Z Machine]

Small/mid-size banks hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans.

Almost 70% of small firms' commercial and industrial loans are from banks with less than $250 billion in assets and 30% from banks with less than $10 billion in assets.

I get why. I'm sure the custumer experience is way better at these small banks. It sucks that some of them are going under, even some that didn't make dumb bets on the future interest rates.

However, if that's the price we as a country have to pay to get inflation under control without massive job losses across all sectors, then so be it.

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

You are right... the economy is strong and growing stronger and nothing but clear skies ahead. In fact, every American is on their way to be a millionaire if not billionair by the end of 2024. Go team!

Yep, that's exactly what I said.

Do you even read these terrible hot takes that you post? For starters, this one's about the debt ceiling, which is totally different from this thread topic, but the title is completely misleading. He said he doesn't expect the country to default on it's debt, but if it did, it would be potentially catastrophic. Well, no ****, but as he said, it isn't likely to happen. Misleading clickbait nonsense.

The economy isn't in great shape, but even your doom-and-gloom self expects a ~1% contraction. Stop the presses. I mean, we're WAY overdue for a recession and we'd barely even notice a 1% drop, the Fed would sign off on that right now.

I get it. Your industry has been decimated by the rise in rates so you're feeling it but it's long overdue. There will be pain, but the reality is many of the jobs lost would never have been created in the first place if it weren't for the biggest expansionary policies in history. You didn't expect to keep shooting fish in a barrel forever did you?

I just posted the article because it was Jamie Dimon, who as much as I dislike him, is a big deal.

It has nothing to do with my industry.

There was no thread about it but I was calling for rate hikes well before the dumb Fed started to raise them and in what actually impacts my industry way more than that.... cease the buying of bonds that was what actually drove rates down.

If you don't agree with me... fine... save me the antagonistism. I don't have the bandwith to deal woth such crap right now. Disagree? Great.... then post something substantive in retort or reply. Otherwise, keep those attempts to be witty to yourself. If you can't do that then do everyone a favor and don't post at all.

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

You are right... the economy is strong and growing stronger and nothing but clear skies ahead. In fact, every American is on their way to be a millionaire if not billionair by the end of 2024. Go team!

Yep, that's exactly what I said.

Do you even read these terrible hot takes that you post? For starters, this one's about the debt ceiling, which is totally different from this thread topic, but the title is completely misleading. He said he doesn't expect the country to default on it's debt, but if it did, it would be potentially catastrophic. Well, no ****, but as he said, it isn't likely to happen. Misleading clickbait nonsense.

The economy isn't in great shape, but even your doom-and-gloom self expects a ~1% contraction. Stop the presses. I mean, we're WAY overdue for a recession and we'd barely even notice a 1% drop, the Fed would sign off on that right now.

I get it. Your industry has been decimated by the rise in rates so you're feeling it but it's long overdue. There will be pain, but the reality is many of the jobs lost would never have been created in the first place if it weren't for the biggest expansionary policies in history. You didn't expect to keep shooting fish in a barrel forever did you?

And BTW... the more pain in the economy upcoming the better off my industry will be so if you think I am cheerleading that on then you are way off base. Just spare me your negativity towards for me expressing what I think about this subject. It is ridiculous.

 

[Stoneworker]

Small/mid-size banks hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans.

Almost 70% of small firms' commercial and industrial loans are from banks with less than $250 billion in assets and 30% from banks with less than $10 billion in assets.

I get why. I'm sure the custumer experience is way better at these small banks. It sucks that some of them are going under, even some that didn't make dumb bets on the future interest rates.

However, if that's the price we as a country have to pay to get inflation under control without massive job losses across all sectors, then so be it.

It's not just "customer experience."

The vast majority of business is local, and small/mid-size banks with their local/regional presence and knowledge are significantly better suited to underwrite small business/real estate loans.

It is the way our economy is built. If small/mid-size banks went under en masse, big national banks could never fill the void, and the entire economy would seize up.

And then we would have much bigger problems than inflation.

 

[humpback]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

You are right... the economy is strong and growing stronger and nothing but clear skies ahead. In fact, every American is on their way to be a millionaire if not billionair by the end of 2024. Go team!

Yep, that's exactly what I said.

Do you even read these terrible hot takes that you post? For starters, this one's about the debt ceiling, which is totally different from this thread topic, but the title is completely misleading. He said he doesn't expect the country to default on it's debt, but if it did, it would be potentially catastrophic. Well, no ****, but as he said, it isn't likely to happen. Misleading clickbait nonsense.

The economy isn't in great shape, but even your doom-and-gloom self expects a ~1% contraction. Stop the presses. I mean, we're WAY overdue for a recession and we'd barely even notice a 1% drop, the Fed would sign off on that right now.

I get it. Your industry has been decimated by the rise in rates so you're feeling it but it's long overdue. There will be pain, but the reality is many of the jobs lost would never have been created in the first place if it weren't for the biggest expansionary policies in history. You didn't expect to keep shooting fish in a barrel forever did you?

I just posted the article because it was Jamie Dimon, who as much as I dislike him, is a big deal.

It has nothing to do with my industry.

There was no thread about it but I was calling for rate hikes well before the dumb Fed started to raise them and in what actually impacts my industry way more than that.... cease the buying of bonds that was what actually drove rates down.

If you don't agree with me... fine... save me the antagonistism. I don't have the bandwith to deal woth such crap right now. Disagree? Great.... then post something substantive in retort or reply. Otherwise, keep those attempts to be witty to yourself. If you can't do that then do everyone a favor and don't post at all.

It wasn't Jamie Dimon, it was a deliberate misrepresentation of what he said, pure clickbait.

I do disagree with you. You've said before that the Fed should have cut rates already, which I completely disagree with, unless of course you really want to see mass panic. When I've said things like "I'm not sure what people want the fed to do?", you've responded with snarky crap like "what could go wrong?", so spare me the "post something substantive" nonsense. I'm sorry that you seem to be having a bad day, but that doesn't give you the right to act like a tool- I'll keep posting if/when I care to.

Hope your day gets better.

 

[culdeus]

In all seriousness.

US bank regulations need a serious overhaul. I would strongly suggest reviewing Canadian policies as a guide.

Do small, local banks exist in Canada?

I mean honestly do we need HOT Milf Credit Union of Peoria?

I wonder a lot who the **** uses some of these tiny banks and why

CU's are awesome. Small banks can kick rear. Much better for consumers than Chase, Citi, BofA, Wells, etc. And it isn't even close. Banking at these large banks as a consumer is silly with the exception of perhaps wealth management (debatable, I think smaller banks still do better) and credit cards as those are so centralized you can't really truly get away from them since most are underwritten by the large banks like US Bank.

I mean I guess. I have to think most people have a couple credit cards and bills on auto pay and the only interaction they have with a local bank is the occasional ATM drop by.

Small/mid-size banks hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans.

Almost 70% of small firms' commercial and industrial loans are from banks with less than $250 billion in assets and 30% from banks with less than $10 billion in assets.

That's who.

I mean banking and lending are two different things here.

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

www.msn.com

Fearmonger much?

You are right... the economy is strong and growing stronger and nothing but clear skies ahead. In fact, every American is on their way to be a millionaire if not billionair by the end of 2024. Go team!

Yep, that's exactly what I said.

Do you even read these terrible hot takes that you post? For starters, this one's about the debt ceiling, which is totally different from this thread topic, but the title is completely misleading. He said he doesn't expect the country to default on it's debt, but if it did, it would be potentially catastrophic. Well, no ****, but as he said, it isn't likely to happen. Misleading clickbait nonsense.

The economy isn't in great shape, but even your doom-and-gloom self expects a ~1% contraction. Stop the presses. I mean, we're WAY overdue for a recession and we'd barely even notice a 1% drop, the Fed would sign off on that right now.

I get it. Your industry has been decimated by the rise in rates so you're feeling it but it's long overdue. There will be pain, but the reality is many of the jobs lost would never have been created in the first place if it weren't for the biggest expansionary policies in history. You didn't expect to keep shooting fish in a barrel forever did you?

I just posted the article because it was Jamie Dimon, who as much as I dislike him, is a big deal.

It has nothing to do with my industry.

There was no thread about it but I was calling for rate hikes well before the dumb Fed started to raise them and in what actually impacts my industry way more than that.... cease the buying of bonds that was what actually drove rates down.

If you don't agree with me... fine... save me the antagonistism. I don't have the bandwith to deal woth such crap right now. Disagree? Great.... then post something substantive in retort or reply. Otherwise, keep those attempts to be witty to yourself. If you can't do that then do everyone a favor and don't post at all.

It wasn't Jamie Dimon, it was a deliberate misrepresentation of what he said, pure clickbait.

I do disagree with you. You've said before that the Fed should have cut rates already, which I completely disagree with, unless of course you really want to see mass panic. When I've said things like "I'm not sure what people want the fed to do?", you've responded with snarky crap like "what could go wrong?", so spare me the "post something substantive" nonsense. I'm sorry that you seem to be having a bad day, but that doesn't give you the right to act like a tool- I'll keep posting if/when I care to.

Hope your day gets better.

"I'm not sure what people want the Fed to do?" is substantive?

I copied and pasted the article. That put the title of the article in the link. Take it up with the author of the article.

 

[Desert_Power]

He does work for something called the Bank Policy Institute though, which is exactly what it sounds like.

Speaking of BPI, this is pretty great. Summary of some of the key points:

1. Fed examiners were principally focused on SVB’s nonfinancial risks and regulatory compliance matters, and not the fundamental weaknesses in SVB’s risk profile that led to its failure.
2. To the extent that examiners did identify and convey concerns in the areas that directly contributed to SVB’s failure, examiners were far too focused on risk management processes and procedures, and not on actual risk.
3. While examiners issued numerous MRAs and MRIAs based on general supervisory expectations, they failed to enforce several key regulatory requirements, including those in Regulation YY that required SVB to have a CRO and to hold a sufficient liquidity buffer as per its internal liquidity stress test results.
4. The rapid shift in SVB’s supervisory ratings and the Fed’s acknowledgment that lower ratings may have been warranted suggest that those ratings frameworks are highly subjective, lack clear standards, and are not focused on actual risks and financial condition.

 

[The Z Machine]

Just saw this article where a Fed governor said, "I do not support stopping rate hikes unless we get clear evidence that inflation is moving down towards our 2 percent objective,”

 

[Poke_4_Life]

Pause on rates today. Thoughts?

I feel like it's a very mixed message since they also are predicting two more hikes this year.

 

[The Z Machine]

Pause on rates today. Thoughts?

I feel like it's a very mixed message since they also are predicting two more hikes this year.

I think it's the right call. With US inflation coming down but inflation staying high in UK and Eurozone, it's right to be cautious at this juncture for the Fed. Let the hikes continue to work their way through the system.

 

[Chemical X]

Small/mid-size banks hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans.

Almost 70% of small firms' commercial and industrial loans are from banks with less than $250 billion in assets and 30% from banks with less than $10 billion in assets.

I get why. I'm sure the custumer experience is way better at these small banks. It sucks that some of them are going under, even some that didn't make dumb bets on the future interest rates.

However, if that's the price we as a country have to pay to get inflation under control without massive job losses across all sectors, then so be it.

It's not just "customer experience."

The vast majority of business is local, and small/mid-size banks with their local/regional presence and knowledge are significantly better suited to underwrite small business/real estate loans.

It is the way our economy is built. If small/mid-size banks went under en masse, big national banks could never fill the void, and the entire economy would seize up.

And then we would have much bigger problems than inflation.

i tend to disagree with this a bit. big national banks have a small local presence, strong enough to compete in market. but the national bank has the advantage of resources and possibly better tech and product suite. small local and regional banks get themselves in a bind because they know they are C and D shelf lenders, taking many customers that the more conservative nationals can pass on. these banks have to be more aggressive with rate and structure to stay competitive. these deficiencies will bubbly up when things go bad. i have seen this first hand. my small local employer once upon a time would go to 100% on real estate. would reduce cash flow requirements to 1x instead of 1.25x. maybe pass on guarantees. take worthless collateral, etc. i think locals fill a need, but for those that are marginally credit worthy. just my .02.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Saw some chatter over the weekend of troubles for Loan Depot, but not sure if there was any validity to it or just rumor mill. Anyone heard anything along those lines?

 

[Chadstroma]

Saw some chatter over the weekend of troubles for Loan Depot, but not sure if there was any validity to it or just rumor mill. Anyone heard anything along those lines?

They have been struggling badly for a while. As with most lenders, their volume has dropped like a lead balloon but they seem to have been one of the specially hit retail lenders. They are another high cost retail lender that is based on an inefficient retail structure that ends up being passed to consumers which makes their pricing not competitive. On top of that, they really do not have any special or do anything particular well unlike Rocket which is a master marekter and driving thinly veiled RESPA violating "partnerships".

Feb of 2021 their stock was at $31.48 now it is $2. They shuttered their wholesale division... I want to say a year ago.

Top executives and loan officers/branches have been jumping ship for the last year or two in massive numbers and their only recourse seems to be to sue the company that they go to and the loan officers themselves.

I would not be suprised in the least if they were out of business in a year or two. In fact, I would be more suprised if they make it through to the next 'refi boom' cycle. The longer that cycle extends, the more likely they will not survive.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

this seems not great also

CRE loan delinquency rate at US banks rises sharply

The delinquency rate of commercial real estate loans increased by 12 basis points sequentially to 0.77% at the end of March, the highest since the third quarter of 2021, an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis found.

www.spglobal.com

 

[Chemical X]

this has been on our radar for several quarters. our exposure to CRE is not awful. keeps me employed though.

 

[Chadstroma]

this seems not great also

CRE loan delinquency rate at US banks rises sharply

The delinquency rate of commercial real estate loans increased by 12 basis points sequentially to 0.77% at the end of March, the highest since the third quarter of 2021, an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis found.

www.spglobal.com

Americans banks have been super focused on CRE for a long time. It is absolutely the reason Jamie Dimon has been pushing to end remote work options. I know he is trying to make Chase the example in hopes more companies follow suit.

Then you have more than a couple of large cities where the business environment is untenable and companies are simply walking away from locations left and right. No where this is more evident than in SF.

There are more headwinds too so CRE is in for a rough go.

 

[massraider]

this seems not great also

CRE loan delinquency rate at US banks rises sharply

The delinquency rate of commercial real estate loans increased by 12 basis points sequentially to 0.77% at the end of March, the highest since the third quarter of 2021, an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis found.

www.spglobal.com

Americans banks have been super focused on CRE for a long time. It is absolutely the reason Jamie Dimon has been pushing to end remote work options. I know he is trying to make Chase the example in hopes more companies follow suit.

Then you have more than a couple of large cities where the business environment is untenable and companies are simply walking away from locations left and right. No where this is more evident than in SF.

There are more headwinds too so CRE is in for a rough go.

Right, this is not a shock.

I don't really see how they can put this genie back in the bottle. Even if you get people to come back to the office, in order to prop up CRE, what's to stop new companies from running lean, and happily paying for 1/5th the office space of their competitior? That's how you put the competition out of business. They are paying premium lease prices, and you aren't? I think that is a pretty massive advantage.

Dimon will chill out on that once they have less exposure to those loans.

I just listened to a podcast about this very subject. The Bigger Pockets guys had a commercial lender on.

Like to hear what you and @FreeBaGeL thought.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

U.S. new home sales jump in May; median house price falls

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged to the highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years in May, benefiting from a dearth of previously owned homes available for sale.

www.reuters.com

This almost surely means rate hikes in the near future, I would think.

 

[Chadstroma]

JPMorgan’s Profit Jumps 67% After First Republic Rescue

First Republic, the failed bank JPMorgan bought in May, provided a $2.7 billion gain but also led to $1.2 billion in credit costs.

www.wsj.com

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I was with a guy about a week ago who is in “the club” and he said that he expects a huge boom in CRE.

Myself and a few of the much younger guys were all taking afterwards and we don’t see it. but if he’s saying it, maybe it’s going to be massaged in that direction.

Personally, in my uneducated opinion, I feel like we’re just resetting our entire economy back into the 60s and rebuilding. Almost from the ground up. Instead of overseas, we’re going to build more here and in Mexico. That’s all going to take time.

The only monkey wrench is AI/automation. That industry is gonna get freaky.

 

[Orange&Blue]

I was with a guy about a week ago who is in “the club” and he said that he expects a huge boom in CRE.

Myself and a few of the much younger guys were all taking afterwards and we don’t see it. but if he’s saying it, maybe it’s going to be massaged in that direction.

Personally, in my uneducated opinion, I feel like we’re just resetting our entire economy back into the 60s and rebuilding. Almost from the ground up. Instead of overseas, we’re going to build more here and in Mexico. That’s all going to take time.

The only monkey wrench is AI/automation. That industry is gonna get freaky.

cre?

 

[culdeus]

I was with a guy about a week ago who is in “the club” and he said that he expects a huge boom in CRE.

Myself and a few of the much younger guys were all taking afterwards and we don’t see it. but if he’s saying it, maybe it’s going to be massaged in that direction.

Personally, in my uneducated opinion, I feel like we’re just resetting our entire economy back into the 60s and rebuilding. Almost from the ground up. Instead of overseas, we’re going to build more here and in Mexico. That’s all going to take time.

The only monkey wrench is AI/automation. That industry is gonna get freaky.

VC funds are buying up a lot of bad cre debt. It's the hotness

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I was with a guy about a week ago who is in “the club” and he said that he expects a huge boom in CRE.

Myself and a few of the much younger guys were all taking afterwards and we don’t see it. but if he’s saying it, maybe it’s going to be massaged in that direction.

Personally, in my uneducated opinion, I feel like we’re just resetting our entire economy back into the 60s and rebuilding. Almost from the ground up. Instead of overseas, we’re going to build more here and in Mexico. That’s all going to take time.

The only monkey wrench is AI/automation. That industry is gonna get freaky.

I love a good contrarian theory but this goes against every scrap of common wisdom right now. We are all gearing up for a bloodbath.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I was with a guy about a week ago who is in “the club” and he said that he expects a huge boom in CRE.

Myself and a few of the much younger guys were all taking afterwards and we don’t see it. but if he’s saying it, maybe it’s going to be massaged in that direction.

Personally, in my uneducated opinion, I feel like we’re just resetting our entire economy back into the 60s and rebuilding. Almost from the ground up. Instead of overseas, we’re going to build more here and in Mexico. That’s all going to take time.

The only monkey wrench is AI/automation. That industry is gonna get freaky.

cre?

Commercial Real Estate.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I was with a guy about a week ago who is in “the club” and he said that he expects a huge boom in CRE.

Myself and a few of the much younger guys were all taking afterwards and we don’t see it. but if he’s saying it, maybe it’s going to be massaged in that direction.

Personally, in my uneducated opinion, I feel like we’re just resetting our entire economy back into the 60s and rebuilding. Almost from the ground up. Instead of overseas, we’re going to build more here and in Mexico. That’s all going to take time.

The only monkey wrench is AI/automation. That industry is gonna get freaky.

VC funds are buying up a lot of bad cre debt. It's the hotness

Explain this to me like I’m not in your financial world and I haven’t been giving you a hard time for two decades.

Does that mean they’re buying it up cheap?

 

[Poke_4_Life]

VC funds are buying up a lot of bad cre debt. It's the hotness

I don't understand this. Unless the prices have gotten so low that the good loans in the pool make up for the dogs. VC money didn't get that way by being dumb, but there's a reason these debts are being sold cheap. I guess time will tell.

This probably ties indirectly to the economic theory of the 'invisible hand'. Basically the economy is always going to come back to some level of equilibrium.

 

[massraider]

I love a good contrarian theory but this goes against every scrap of common wisdom right now. We are all gearing up for a bloodbath.

If they are already paying bloodbath prices, it might be fine.

Look at it this way, in 2008 you could kill it by buying bank-owned property. They just want it off their books.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I love a good contrarian theory but this goes against every scrap of common wisdom right now. We are all gearing up for a bloodbath.

If they are already paying bloodbath prices, it might be fine.

Look at it this way, in 2008 you could kill it by buying bank-owned property. They just want it off their books.

I think I interpreted the phrase “huge boom in CRE” incorrectly in this discussion.

 

[Chadstroma]

Office real estate values are moving down so fast that banking giants like Wells Fargo are already bracing for losses

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf: "we are reserving for the weakness that we expect to play out in that market over time."

fortune.com

 

[massraider]

Office real estate values are moving down so fast that banking giants like Wells Fargo are already bracing for losses

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf: "we are reserving for the weakness that we expect to play out in that market over time."

fortune.com

This feels like it's going to be the real estate bubble/crisis that doesn't really affect many regular people. Bunch of institutional money is going to take a bath on this. There will obviously be collateral damage, but considering the dollar amounts that will be losses, not much.

 

[Chadstroma]

Office real estate values are moving down so fast that banking giants like Wells Fargo are already bracing for losses

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf: "we are reserving for the weakness that we expect to play out in that market over time."

fortune.com

This feels like it's going to be the real estate bubble/crisis that doesn't really affect many regular people. Bunch of institutional money is going to take a bath on this. There will obviously be collateral damage, but considering the dollar amounts that will be losses, not much.

Maybe.

Also maybe is that these banks that get hammered stop lending and that impacts everything.

It all is a matter of how deep and wide it becomes. It could be as little as some lower profits for some banks to as much as a full blown economic crisis.

 

[humpback]

Is there blood in the streets yet?

 

[Chadstroma]

Is there blood in the streets yet?

HOLD. HOLD! HOLD!!!!

 

[humpback]

Is there blood in the streets yet?

HOLD. HOLD! HOLD!!!!

There's nothing left to hold!!!

 

[Dezbelief]

Is there blood in the streets yet?

HOLD. HOLD! HOLD!!!!

There's nothing left to hold!!!

Deez

 

[Chadstroma]

Is there blood in the streets yet?

HOLD. HOLD! HOLD!!!!

There's nothing left to hold!!!