Green-Ellis (1 Viewer)

[Bayhawks]

Question about BJGE. I would specifically like to hear NE homer's input (Yudkin's opinion would be greatly appreciated).

He is averaging 14 carries/game for 4.7 YPC since Maroney got traded and Faulk and Taylor got hurt. He's also scored in every single game since those guys left/were injured.

Is the consensus still that he is still "just a body?" From what I gathered from previous threads, the only way he was going to have an impact was if everyone else got hurt (which is basically what happened). But 4.7 YPC isn't anything to sneeze at, so is there any chance that he will continue to be a big factor after Taylor gets back? What about for the future? He's a restricted FA next year. Is there a chance that the Pats will re-sign him and make him the lead back in a RBBC, or even the feature back?

 

[Mistabishi]

Question about BJGE. I would specifically like to hear NE homer's input (Yudkin's opinion would be greatly appreciated).He is averaging 14 carries/game for 4.7 YPC since Maroney got traded and Faulk and Taylor got hurt. He's also scored in every single game since those guys left/were injured.Is the consensus still that he is still "just a body?" From what I gathered from previous threads, the only way he was going to have an impact was if everyone else got hurt (which is basically what happened). But 4.7 YPC isn't anything to sneeze at, so is there any chance that he will continue to be a big factor after Taylor gets back? What about for the future? He's a restricted FA next year. Is there a chance that the Pats will re-sign him and make him the lead back in a RBBC, or even the feature back?

Law firm is talented and the coaching staff loves his work ethic and that he does all the little things so there is a comfort level when he's on the field. I think he sticks around a few more years and occasionally pops in with a nice game but occasionally has a day of low output.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I would say do not go chasing those BJGE points.

 

[zamboni]

I would say do not go chasing those BJGE points.

Agreed. You never know how Belicheck is going to use his RBs from week to week.BJGE is probably a good play when the Pats are ahead and pounding the ball, but it's hard to speculate that will be the case on any given week.

 

[David Yudkin]

BJGE has scored in every game but one over the years when he was the primary back (scored in 8 games of the 9 games he's had 10 carries). So he's a safe bet to get in the end zone each week as long as Taylor is out. His ypc numbers are clearly inflated after yesterday, as his ypc was about half that before averaging nearly 6.6 ypc against the Vikings.

He's a decent fantasy option provided the Pats are winning and playing with the lead in the second half. Everyone keeps waiting for the shoe to drop on the defense and the Pats having to air it out to play catch up, but that hasn't happened yet.

 

[Bayhawks]

BJGE has scored in every game but one over the years when he was the primary back (scored in 8 games of the 9 games he's had 10 carries). So he's a safe bet to get in the end zone each week as long as Taylor is out. His ypc numbers are clearly inflated after yesterday, as his ypc was about half that before averaging nearly 6.6 ypc against the Vikings.

He's a decent fantasy option provided the Pats are winning and playing with the lead in the second half. Everyone keeps waiting for the shoe to drop on the defense and the Pats having to air it out to play catch up, but that hasn't happened yet.

I hadn't taken that into account (long day yesterday), but even when you eliminate yesterday's game, he is averaging over 4.1 YPC since the Pats lost Maroney, Faulk, and Taylor. So what I'm gathering is that he's a decent option when the Pats are ahead, which can be said about many backs who don't catch a lot of balls.

Will he lose all his value when/if Taylor comes back, or will the Pats still keep him involved?

Is the expectation that the Pats will sign a FA/draft a RB next year, or are they satisfied with what BJGE provides?

 

[munygon2]

The Pats could likely be ahead once again next week against Cleveland, although it's not a guarantee (see Cle/N.O. game). But, he could still be a viable start since the Pats are just too good to let Cleveland whip them, imo.

 

[omally]

The Pats could likely be ahead once again next week against Cleveland, although it's not a guarantee (see Cle/N.O. game). But, he could still be a viable start since the Pats are just too good to let Cleveland whip them, imo.

I don't think any team this year is too good to let another team with a worse record beat them.

 

[Da Guru]

Ellis looks like a poor mans Tim Hightower....does not do anything that well but will get 30-40 yards and the goal line work.

 

[rascal]

Sell high.

 

[bostonfred]

Ellis looks like a poor mans Tim Hightower....does not do anything that well but will get 30-40 yards and the goal line work.

Aside from the fact that they play different roles, he doesn't catch the ball as well, he has scored from outside the goal line, he hasn't had a 30-40 yards game all year (he has had 98, 76, 20, 24, and 112, all with at least one TD), he doesn't have a Beanie Wells on the team, he plays on a much better offense with a better line, and Woodhead plays a role more similar to Hightower's, this post hits the nail on the head.

 

[packersfan]

He's scored in five straight games. Looks like a legit RB3 with RB2 upside many weeks to me.

 

[badmother]

Question about BJGE. I would specifically like to hear NE homer's input (Yudkin's opinion would be greatly appreciated).He is averaging 14 carries/game for 4.7 YPC since Maroney got traded and Faulk and Taylor got hurt. He's also scored in every single game since those guys left/were injured.Is the consensus still that he is still "just a body?" From what I gathered from previous threads, the only way he was going to have an impact was if everyone else got hurt (which is basically what happened). But 4.7 YPC isn't anything to sneeze at, so is there any chance that he will continue to be a big factor after Taylor gets back? What about for the future? He's a restricted FA next year. Is there a chance that the Pats will re-sign him and make him the lead back in a RBBC, or even the feature back?

He seems like a rhythm runner, the games were he's had a decent YPC he's had more then 15 carries. He sputtered at the beginning of the game yesterday but once he was getting consistent carries he started ripping off bigger runs. He got the carries because he was the hot hand yesterday and woodhead couldn't do much on the ground outside that TD, another problem is if taylor returns who knows how many carries he'll get but I expect for the near further he'll get 15 touches a game.

 

[Clifford]

Sell high right now definitely. NE never gives anyone consistent carries. I think you could maybe pry away a Ced Benson or some other underperforming back.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

Ellis looks like a poor mans Tim Hightower....does not do anything that well but will get 30-40 yards and the goal line work.

Aside from the fact that they play different roles, he doesn't catch the ball as well, he has scored from outside the goal line, he hasn't had a 30-40 yards game all year (he has had 98, 76, 20, 24, and 112, all with at least one TD), he doesn't have a Beanie Wells on the team, he plays on a much better offense with a better line, and Woodhead plays a role more similar to Hightower's, this post hits the nail on the head.

Dear Mr. Bostonfred,Your newsletter told me that Matt Leinart was a big buy-low in July/August. I made boatloads off of that advice. I await your next issue, thanks!

 

[bostonfred]

Ellis looks like a poor mans Tim Hightower....does not do anything that well but will get 30-40 yards and the goal line work.

Aside from the fact that they play different roles, he doesn't catch the ball as well, he has scored from outside the goal line, he hasn't had a 30-40 yards game all year (he has had 98, 76, 20, 24, and 112, all with at least one TD), he doesn't have a Beanie Wells on the team, he plays on a much better offense with a better line, and Woodhead plays a role more similar to Hightower's, this post hits the nail on the head.

Dear Mr. Bostonfred,Your newsletter told me that Matt Leinart was a big buy-low in July/August. I made boatloads off of that advice. I await your next issue, thanks!

Fair points, and thanks for bringing them up. While we're at it, I thought Maroney was a huge bargain pick. I stand by my reasoning. I think the Patriots running back is a solid RB2 when there's any clarity to it, and I didn't think Faulk, Taylor and Morris were any good. I wanted the guy who got the carries. I thought that Maroney was the guy who was most likely to get those carries. I got BJGE and Woodhead as soon as Maroney got traded. I'm not unhappy with it. I wanted the QB who was throwing to Fitzgerald and Breaston, and I thought Leinart was the best of the bunch. If he hadn't lost the job, he'd have been a great value pick. And as it turns out, Leinart may well have been the best of the bunch. His numbers in that offense were not the problem. The Cards just didn't see themselves winning with him. But Anderson sucks, and Hall isn't ready, so it's hard to say what kind of numbers the Cards would be putting up with Leinart under center. We may find out soon. The Cards passed for over 300 yards last week. On a plus note, I have Hillis on several teams, and I've picked up guys like Pettigrew and Marcedes Lewis. That's what happens in the late rounds. You can't get the guys that everyone thinks are talented, and in great situations, because those guys tend to go earlier. So you can take guys who are talented, but underrated, or guys like Leinart or Maroney who are perceived as untalented, but could do well in a good situation, or even guys like Hillis, in situations that seem bad, but might be better than they look. It's good to make educated decisions about who will do better or worse. I'm not always right, but I do the best I can to make a clear case for why I think one sleeper is better than another, or one high pick should be avoided. It sounds like you disagreed with some of them, and I don't blame you - they won't all do well. Just like in poker, when you might make the right call and still lose, the important part is the long term process. Thank you for whatever it is that you are trying to contribute by pointing out a player I thought was underrated and in a good situation.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

The Patriots have so many draft picks next year they're bound to draft a RB who will probably have equal or better talent level compared to BJGE

 

[Bayhawks]

The Patriots have so many draft picks next year they're bound to draft a RB who will probably have equal or better talent level compared to BJGE

Is this necessarily true? Hasn't NE had significant number of draft picks the last few years and failed to take a RB?Before he Pats signed Corey Dillon, they had Antowain Smith as their #1 RB. Nothing really special, but around 4.0 YPC, and he got the tough yards. Can BJGE be that guy?

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

The Patriots have so many draft picks next year they're bound to draft a RB who will probably have equal or better talent level compared to BJGE

Is this necessarily true? Hasn't NE had significant number of draft picks the last few years and failed to take a RB?Before he Pats signed Corey Dillon, they had Antowain Smith as their #1 RB. Nothing really special, but around 4.0 YPC, and he got the tough yards. Can BJGE be that guy?

Antowain Smith was 1st rd pedigree- same with Maroney. Also, Smith had a 1000+ yard season his first year with the Patriots. BJGE isn't even close to that yet.

 

[boneman18]

^^^ It doesn't matter where BJGE was drafted because his results are pretty consistent in that offense. BJGE runs hard and doesn't make mistakes, the perfect attribute for that offense.

He is atleast on the level of a Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai or Thomas Jones, which puts him in the upper half of rb's.

 

[Bayhawks]

The Patriots have so many draft picks next year they're bound to draft a RB who will probably have equal or better talent level compared to BJGE

Is this necessarily true? Hasn't NE had significant number of draft picks the last few years and failed to take a RB?Before he Pats signed Corey Dillon, they had Antowain Smith as their #1 RB. Nothing really special, but around 4.0 YPC, and he got the tough yards. Can BJGE be that guy?

Antowain Smith was 1st rd pedigree- same with Maroney. Also, Smith had a 1000+ yard season his first year with the Patriots. BJGE isn't even close to that yet.

Yes, he was a 1st round pick, 4 years before he signed with NE. He had 4 years with Buffalo, with a 3.85 YPC. His "1st rd pedigree" means nothing when you can't do anything with it in the NFL.As for his 1000 yard season with NE, he got those yards with 285 carries and a 4.0 clip. Those aren't impressive numbers, rather they are the result of getting a significant amount of carries.That is the question I'm asking: could Green-Ellis be another Antowain Smith? A RB who doesn't dominate, but does what NE wants, which is gain positive yardage and get the short yards. If he is, he will possess some definite FF value.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

Ellis looks like a poor mans Tim Hightower....does not do anything that well but will get 30-40 yards and the goal line work.

Aside from the fact that they play different roles, he doesn't catch the ball as well, he has scored from outside the goal line, he hasn't had a 30-40 yards game all year (he has had 98, 76, 20, 24, and 112, all with at least one TD), he doesn't have a Beanie Wells on the team, he plays on a much better offense with a better line, and Woodhead plays a role more similar to Hightower's, this post hits the nail on the head.

Dear Mr. Bostonfred,Your newsletter told me that Matt Leinart was a big buy-low in July/August. I made boatloads off of that advice. I await your next issue, thanks!

Thank you

YW.Wish I caught on with the Maroney call. Any more predictions?

 

[Da Guru]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

 

[Chaka]

The Patriots have so many draft picks next year they're bound to draft a RB who will probably have equal or better talent level compared to BJGE

Is this necessarily true? Hasn't NE had significant number of draft picks the last few years and failed to take a RB?Before he Pats signed Corey Dillon, they had Antowain Smith as their #1 RB. Nothing really special, but around 4.0 YPC, and he got the tough yards.

Can BJGE be that guy?

Antowain Smith was 1st rd pedigree- same with Maroney. Also, Smith had a 1000+ yard season his first year with the Patriots. BJGE isn't even close to that yet.

Holding onto these distinction once the games are for real is the reason no one can get fair market value for guys like BJGE, Brandon Lloyd etc.

 

[Bayhawks]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

Exactly. He doesn't make you go "wow," but he gets the job done, and that appears to be what is most important to BB.What I'm asking is if any NE homers have any idea/insight/information about whether NE (Belicheck) seems satisfied with BJGE and won't draft/sign a FA RB to compete with him in 2011.

 

[Chaka]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

Exactly. He doesn't make you go "wow," but he gets the job done, and that appears to be what is most important to BB.What I'm asking is if any NE homers have any idea/insight/information about whether NE (Belicheck) seems satisfied with BJGE and won't draft/sign a FA RB to compete with him in 2011.

I am more concerned about what happens to BJGE's role this season when Fred Taylor returns.Right now I am trying to sell because of the uncertainty.

 

[David Yudkin]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

Exactly. He doesn't make you go "wow," but he gets the job done, and that appears to be what is most important to BB.What I'm asking is if any NE homers have any idea/insight/information about whether NE (Belicheck) seems satisfied with BJGE and won't draft/sign a FA RB to compete with him in 2011.

IIRC, NE has zero RBs signed past this year, so I am guessing they will be in the market for RBs.

 

[Welshie]

Since Week 3 (when Taylor stayed down and he became the defacto starting RB).

vs. BUF -- 16 att, 98 yds, 1 TD

@ MIA -- 16 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

vs. BAL -- 10 att, 20 yds, 1 TD

@ SD -- 11 att, 24 yds, 1 TD

vs. MIN -- 17 att, 112 yds, 2 TD

He's getting double-digit touches and goalline looks on 1st and 2nd downs. I'd say given the lack of RB strength overall this year, people are undervaluing his role. You know exactly what you're going to get which you can't' say about a lot of RB situations this year. He's a solid RB2 especially during the slew of bye weeks.

The larger overall statement about New England, though, is that the offensive value from a fantasy standpoint is now primarily Green-Ellis and Woodhead.

In passing situations in the red zone, other than Gronk, Woodhead has been getting a lot of looks.

Between the two of them, Green-Ellis and Woodhead are getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 touches each on a game to game basis. Both have value on any given week. If you're choosing one over the other, play the matchup. If it's a tougher run D and looks like New England will be tested that week, Woodhead is the start. If it's a game New England should front run or a softer run D, Green-Ellis is the start.

Honestly, against Cleveland, if you don't have the options, I wouldn't be opposed to giving both guys a look this week. I think they both get in the end zone.

 

[harryhood]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

Exactly. He doesn't make you go "wow," but he gets the job done, and that appears to be what is most important to BB.What I'm asking is if any NE homers have any idea/insight/information about whether NE (Belicheck) seems satisfied with BJGE and won't draft/sign a FA RB to compete with him in 2011.

IIRC, NE has zero RBs signed past this year, so I am guessing they will be in the market for RBs.

Every EARLY mock that I see has Ingram heading to NE.

 

[dharmapunk]

The Patriots have so many draft picks next year they're bound to draft a RB who will probably have equal or better talent level compared to BJGE

Is this necessarily true? Hasn't NE had significant number of draft picks the last few years and failed to take a RB?Before he Pats signed Corey Dillon, they had Antowain Smith as their #1 RB. Nothing really special, but around 4.0 YPC, and he got the tough yards. Can BJGE be that guy?

Antowain Smith was 1st rd pedigree- same with Maroney. Also, Smith had a 1000+ yard season his first year with the Patriots. BJGE isn't even close to that yet.

Yes, he was a 1st round pick, 4 years before he signed with NE. He had 4 years with Buffalo, with a 3.85 YPC. His "1st rd pedigree" means nothing when you can't do anything with it in the NFL.As for his 1000 yard season with NE, he got those yards with 285 carries and a 4.0 clip. Those aren't impressive numbers, rather they are the result of getting a significant amount of carries.That is the question I'm asking: could Green-Ellis be another Antowain Smith? A RB who doesn't dominate, but does what NE wants, which is gain positive yardage and get the short yards. If he is, he will possess some definite FF value.

Antowain Smith was a serviceable RB in Buffalo, especially early in his career when he had an offensive line and Thurman Thomas spelling him on 3rd downs. Same in NE. He was never great but he was a decent starting RB - which is all you need when you have NE's aerial attack.I'm not sure if Green-Ellis can be that guy, but I sure hope so since I scooped up off the waiver wire a few weeks ago.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

. . . a hat, a broach, a pterodactyl . . .

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

Exactly. He doesn't make you go "wow," but he gets the job done, and that appears to be what is most important to BB.What I'm asking is if any NE homers have any idea/insight/information about whether NE (Belicheck) seems satisfied with BJGE and won't draft/sign a FA RB to compete with him in 2011.

IIRC, NE has zero RBs signed past this year, so I am guessing they will be in the market for RBs.

Every EARLY mock that I see has Ingram heading to NE.

If the Raiders keep winning though, it's doubtful NE's pick will be high enough for them to draft him (unless they trade up which is generally not their style).

 

[David Yudkin]

I have watched Ben Ellis all year, just does not seem to be that skilled of a runner...but he is producing and that is all that matters.

Exactly. He doesn't make you go "wow," but he gets the job done, and that appears to be what is most important to BB.What I'm asking is if any NE homers have any idea/insight/information about whether NE (Belicheck) seems satisfied with BJGE and won't draft/sign a FA RB to compete with him in 2011.

IIRC, NE has zero RBs signed past this year, so I am guessing they will be in the market for RBs.

Every EARLY mock that I see has Ingram heading to NE.

I doubt NE would be that into Ingram. It's not their style to pat a RB that kind of money and they have been fairly productive without marquee backs. Maybe late first like Maroney or in the second, but I don't think they want to tie up a ton of money there. I would guess they would look for the next Richard Seymour with the Raiders pick.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Pats apparently were trying to acquire Pierre Thomas the night before the trading deadline . . . injuries and all. It sounds like the Pats would have traded Darius Butler for Thomas, but the Pats also wanted a pick and the Saints said no.

I still don't see BJGE becoming a featured back in NE and I think the Pats will have some different faces in the backfield next year. They might keep Green Ellis beyond this year, but I think he will go back to being RB depth and a role player.

 

[packersfan]

The attempt to trade for Thomas certainly reflects poorly on BGE's value as a long-term starter in the eyes of management. However, he's produced pretty well this season. He runs hard and definitely has a nose for the end zone. He may not be a star talent but I think he's pretty good and more than bench fodder. If the Patriots don't want him as a starter I'm sure there are other teams who would take him. He'd be a huge upgrade in Green Bay, for example. Not saying that would happen; just pointing out that he could step in and start for some teams if the Patriots didn't view him as the starter beyond this season.

 

[David Yudkin]

The attempt to trade for Thomas certainly reflects poorly on BGE's value as a long-term starter in the eyes of management. However, he's produced pretty well this season. He runs hard and definitely has a nose for the end zone. He may not be a star talent but I think he's pretty good and more than bench fodder. If the Patriots don't want him as a starter I'm sure there are other teams who would take him. He'd be a huge upgrade in Green Bay, for example. Not saying that would happen; just pointing out that he could step in and start for some teams if the Patriots didn't view him as the starter beyond this season.

Over the years, whoever the goal line back has been has gotten in the end zone a fair amount. The problem has been that the backs have had issues staying healthy, the Pats have rotated their backs even with better health, and usually they don't use just one guy. But NE has had plenty of rushing TD in recent years . . .

 

[packersfan]

The attempt to trade for Thomas certainly reflects poorly on BGE's value as a long-term starter in the eyes of management. However, he's produced pretty well this season. He runs hard and definitely has a nose for the end zone. He may not be a star talent but I think he's pretty good and more than bench fodder. If the Patriots don't want him as a starter I'm sure there are other teams who would take him. He'd be a huge upgrade in Green Bay, for example. Not saying that would happen; just pointing out that he could step in and start for some teams if the Patriots didn't view him as the starter beyond this season.

Over the years, whoever the goal line back has been has gotten in the end zone a fair amount. The problem has been that the backs have had issues staying healthy, the Pats have rotated their backs even with better health, and usually they don't use just one guy. But NE has had plenty of rushing TD in recent years . . .

I agree. I'm just saying that I believe BGE is a solid RB. He's not a star but I think teams could do a lot worse - and some are, especially where I'm located - with a starting RB. I don't think he's a slug who's lucking into production. He runs hard. Again, not a star talent but a solid NFL running back who I believe is starting caliber.

 

[packersfan]

I'm very impressed with BGE tonight. He's running hard and looks very good against a great run defense. He's also being used in the passing game.

 

[Da Guru]

Benny Ellis is a run of the mill back at best.

 

[packersfan]

Benny Ellis is a run of the mill back at best.

He gashed an excellent run defense pretty well tonight for a run of the mill back. Not saying he's a star but I thought he looked very good. He ran hard and had a lot of good runs.

 

[TS Garp]

Benny Ellis is a run of the mill back at best.

He gashed an excellent run defense pretty well tonight for a run of the mill back. Not saying he's a star but I thought he looked very good. He ran hard and had a lot of good runs.

I agree. I honestly didn't even think about starting him this week between his awful performance last week and going against Pittsburgh, but he rose to the occasion. Still had to trust him too much going forward, though. By the way, love the avatar.

 

[zamboni]

Many seem to focus on BJGE being run of the mill, but not every RB has to be electrifying like Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson to be effective. I was impressed with some of the runs BJGE made outside of the tackles, as he has generally been used just up the gut. Plus it seems he can catch the ball after all.

He's never going to be a world beater, but the kid runs hard and can play. For fantasy purposes, too bad Belichick will never stay with him for more than a game or two in a row.