Greg Little, WR, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Greg Little, WR, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Greg Little Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[JH56]

Ok I'll start.

I figure an uptick in receptions and yds per catch and TD based on the assumption that Weeden is better than McCoy and Little gets some offseason time.

75 rec 950 yds yds and 5-6 TD's

Low end 2 in Std redraft.

Dynasty I think he could put together a few real good seasons IF Weeden turns out to be good.

 

[r3t2]

i'm all in on little. havent felt like this about a player since right before shady broke out.

80/1100/7

 

[lbouchard]

i'm all in on little. havent felt like this about a player since right before shady broke out.80/1100/7

That would be good for 232 points, which would have placed him at WR10 this year. A low end WR1. No chance. I love the offseason and it's wildly optimistic projections.

 

[DansRams]

i'm all in on little. havent felt like this about a player since right before shady broke out.80/1100/7

That would be good for 232 points, which would have placed him at WR10 this year. A low end WR1. No chance. I love the offseason and it's wildly optimistic projections.

That is an aggresive projection, but certainly not out of the questionReasons for improvement- Likely improved offense due to TRich and Weeden- QB that has the arm that will allow Little to take a bigger advantage of the entire route tree making him a tougher cover- Little missed an entire yr prior to last year (had to have an impact)- Little still learning the position and fiqures to improve with a year under his belt- Last two reasons compounded due to limited camp last yr....gets a full camp this yr- Dropped 11 pounds which should help quicknessNone of these reasons make a huge difference, but the combined impact is certainly reason to be optimisticI say 80/1040/7 with a range of 70/900/5 to 85/1100/8

 

[Tau837]

According to ProFootballFocus, there were 115 WRs who played at least 25% of their teams' offensive snaps last year. Among those WRs, PFF rated Little as follows:

#114 overall, the second worst WR, ahead of only Legedu Naanee.

#115 receiving, the absolute worst.

Tied for #91 in blocking.

Combine that with his past character/off field issues and his lack of experience at WR, which puts him behind at his own position, and I'm really not getting all the positive hype.

Some people seem to think that the fact that he didn't play WR much in college is somehow a positive. I don't think there are many examples of guys who didn't play much WR prior to the NFL becoming top NFL WRs. Why are people convinced Little will be an exception?

Some people seem to believe the passing game will be much improved over last year. It seems more likely the running game will be improved, which should lead to fewer passing attempts. But what really matters is how much they will improve on their 3090 passing yards and 16 passing TDs last season. My guess is they won't improve much. In which case, I don't see too much improvement in Little's performance.

Last year, Little had 61/709/2 receiving on 120 targets. I expect his targets to be relatively similar and his catch percentage and yards per reception to go up a bit. I doubt the passing TDs will change much; it's much more likely that any additional TDs will go to Richardson.

I'll project 73/850/3, assuming he plays all 16 games.

 

[todisco1]

Some people seem to think that the fact that he didn't play WR much in college is somehow a positive. I don't think there are many examples of guys who didn't play much WR prior to the NFL becoming top NFL WRs. Why are people convinced Little will be an exception?

I guess because he has a lot of natural talent. He may never live up to it, but he has a terrific ceiling IMO. I think it's a positive that he hasn't played much at WR because he has a lot of room to develop. He was very raw last year and it shoewed - people expecting him to be great right out of the gate were setting themselves up to be disappointed. But... if his work ethic matches his talent he'll be a very good WR. My .02.

 

[r3t2]

i'm all in on little. havent felt like this about a player since right before shady broke out.

80/1100/7

That would be good for 232 points, which would have placed him at WR10 this year. A low end WR1. No chance. I love the offseason and it's wildly optimistic projections.

never say "no chance." nelson, cruz, lynch, gronk, graham, stafford, JPP, sproles. every year a dozen players do something no one thought was possible. you may be right, but of course he a chance. if youre gonna win your league you can't just predict last year's numbers.what do you think he will do this year?

 

[Tau837]

Some people seem to think that the fact that he didn't play WR much in college is somehow a positive. I don't think there are many examples of guys who didn't play much WR prior to the NFL becoming top NFL WRs. Why are people convinced Little will be an exception?

I guess because he has a lot of natural talent. He may never live up to it, but he has a terrific ceiling IMO. I think it's a positive that he hasn't played much at WR because he has a lot of room to develop. He was very raw last year and it shoewed - people expecting him to be great right out of the gate were setting themselves up to be disappointed. But... if his work ethic matches his talent he'll be a very good WR. My .02.

I see comments about his natural talent a lot, but I'm not certain what it means.He has good leaping ability and good tackle breaking ability. He isn't afraid to go over the middle. His hands are solid, though his concentration at times is not (hence the drops last year). Are those things the "natural talent"?He has average speed and doesn't really get great separation. He doesn't run routes particularly well, which I suppose can improve with more reps. And he demonstrated poor character and maturity in college. Is that stuff offset by his "natural talent"?He is in a lousy situation in the short term due to playing with a rookie QB on a poor passing offense. But it feels to me like he is Cleveland's #1 WR not because he is a true #1 WR, but more by default because they don't have any quality WRs. My guess is that by the time Cleveland gets a better QB and overall passing offense, there will be someone else who has claimed the #1 WR job there, and maybe the #2 job as well.I'm just not seeing a lot of potential there. He reminds me a bit of guys like Devin Hester and Antwan Randle-El, other guys who didn't play much WR in college and who were getting "wait til next year" hype for their first few years in the NFL... but it never happened for them. I don't think it's going to happen for Little either.

 

[lbouchard]

i'm all in on little. havent felt like this about a player since right before shady broke out.

80/1100/7

That would be good for 232 points, which would have placed him at WR10 this year. A low end WR1. No chance. I love the offseason and it's wildly optimistic projections.

never say "no chance." nelson, cruz, lynch, gronk, graham, stafford, JPP, sproles. every year a dozen players do something no one thought was possible. you may be right, but of course he a chance. if youre gonna win your league you can't just predict last year's numbers.what do you think he will do this year?

You're right, I shouldn't say no chance. But I don't see any way for a rookie QB on a run first offense to let Little post those numbers, especially in that division. I expect a improvement on last year's efficiency numbers(same number of targets), but there will be growing pains with Weeden, no matter how old he is.72 rec, 908 yards, 4 TDs

 

[todisco1]

I guess because he has a lot of natural talent. He may never live up to it, but he has a terrific ceiling IMO.

I think it's a positive that he hasn't played much at WR because he has a lot of room to develop. He was very raw last year and it shoewed - people expecting him to be great right out of the gate were setting themselves up to be disappointed. But... if his work ethic matches his talent he'll be a very good WR.

My .02.

I see comments about his natural talent a lot, but I'm not certain what it means.He has good leaping ability and good tackle breaking ability. He isn't afraid to go over the middle. His hands are solid, though his concentration at times is not (hence the drops last year). Are those things the "natural talent"?

He has average speed and doesn't really get great separation. He doesn't run routes particularly well, which I suppose can improve with more reps. And he demonstrated poor character and maturity in college. Is that stuff offset by his "natural talent"?

He is in a lousy situation in the short term due to playing with a rookie QB on a poor passing offense. But it feels to me like he is Cleveland's #1 WR not because he is a true #1 WR, but more by default because they don't have any quality WRs. My guess is that by the time Cleveland gets a better QB and overall passing offense, there will be someone else who has claimed the #1 WR job there, and maybe the #2 job as well.

I'm just not seeing a lot of potential there. He reminds me a bit of guys like Devin Hester and Antwan Randle-El, other guys who didn't play much WR in college and who were getting "wait til next year" hype for their first few years in the NFL... but it never happened for them. I don't think it's going to happen for Little either.

You may not see any physical talent, but many, many others do. And that's fine, you don't think there's much potential, I think the sky's the limit. At some point we'll find out, that's what makes this so fun. But there are numerous scouting reports mentioning his great athleticism. From Scout.com:

Greg Little

Ht: 6-3 Wt: 205 40: 4.5

Position: WR, RB

2007 Scout.com HS Football Rankings (full list):

Pos: WR

Pos Rank: #12

Scout.com Player Evaluation:

Tremendous athlete that can play running back, linebacker, safety, or wide receiver in college. Size/speed/strength combination is off the charts, and a great team leader as well.

from draftbreakdown.com:

Summary

Greg Little is among this draft class’ most physically gifted receiver. Despite below average college production at the position, he appeared to be a player poised for a big breakout before a suspension took his Senior season away. It remains to be seen whether he will learn from his past mistakes and mature as a person. Regardless, Little has the talent to make an impact early at the next level, likely in the short to intermediate passing game. He has the ability to develop into an upper-echelon receiver in the NFL but so much depends on his decision making and his standing with his coaches.

from kffl:

North Carolina wide receiver Greg Little missed the entire 2010 season but remains an interesting prospect in the 2011 NFL Draft.

In 2009, as a junior, Little caught 62 passes for 724 yards and five touchdowns. He added 166 rushing yards and one ground score. All things told, Little has just 86 receptions for 969 yards and six scores in three years as a collegiate receiver.

Strengths

Exceptional athleticism

Great size (6-foot-2 1/2, 231 pounds)

Acceptable speed (official 4.51 seconds in the 40-yard dash)

Terrific vision and body control

Little has a lot of upside

Catches well over both shoulders

Lateral agility, quickness and size allow him to make impressive open-field moves

Former running back - tough to bring down

High upside

Consistently makes circus catches

Read more: http://www.kffl.com/a.php/127575/nfl-draft/2011-NFL-Draft-Scouting-Report--Greg-Little--WR--North-Carolina#ixzz1zPw0tdzH

 

[Tau837]

I guess because he has a lot of natural talent. He may never live up to it, but he has a terrific ceiling IMO.

I think it's a positive that he hasn't played much at WR because he has a lot of room to develop. He was very raw last year and it shoewed - people expecting him to be great right out of the gate were setting themselves up to be disappointed. But... if his work ethic matches his talent he'll be a very good WR.

My .02.

I see comments about his natural talent a lot, but I'm not certain what it means.He has good leaping ability and good tackle breaking ability. He isn't afraid to go over the middle. His hands are solid, though his concentration at times is not (hence the drops last year). Are those things the "natural talent"?

He has average speed and doesn't really get great separation. He doesn't run routes particularly well, which I suppose can improve with more reps. And he demonstrated poor character and maturity in college. Is that stuff offset by his "natural talent"?

He is in a lousy situation in the short term due to playing with a rookie QB on a poor passing offense. But it feels to me like he is Cleveland's #1 WR not because he is a true #1 WR, but more by default because they don't have any quality WRs. My guess is that by the time Cleveland gets a better QB and overall passing offense, there will be someone else who has claimed the #1 WR job there, and maybe the #2 job as well.

I'm just not seeing a lot of potential there. He reminds me a bit of guys like Devin Hester and Antwan Randle-El, other guys who didn't play much WR in college and who were getting "wait til next year" hype for their first few years in the NFL... but it never happened for them. I don't think it's going to happen for Little either.

You may not see any physical talent, but many, many others do. And that's fine, you don't think there's much potential, I think the sky's the limit. At some point we'll find out, that's what makes this so fun. But there are numerous scouting reports mentioning his great athleticism. From Scout.com:

Greg Little

Ht: 6-3 Wt: 205 40: 4.5

Position: WR, RB

2007 Scout.com HS Football Rankings (full list):

Pos: WR

Pos Rank: #12

Scout.com Player Evaluation:

Tremendous athlete that can play running back, linebacker, safety, or wide receiver in college. Size/speed/strength combination is off the charts, and a great team leader as well.

from draftbreakdown.com:

Summary

Greg Little is among this draft class’ most physically gifted receiver. Despite below average college production at the position, he appeared to be a player poised for a big breakout before a suspension took his Senior season away. It remains to be seen whether he will learn from his past mistakes and mature as a person. Regardless, Little has the talent to make an impact early at the next level, likely in the short to intermediate passing game. He has the ability to develop into an upper-echelon receiver in the NFL but so much depends on his decision making and his standing with his coaches.

from kffl:

North Carolina wide receiver Greg Little missed the entire 2010 season but remains an interesting prospect in the 2011 NFL Draft.

In 2009, as a junior, Little caught 62 passes for 724 yards and five touchdowns. He added 166 rushing yards and one ground score. All things told, Little has just 86 receptions for 969 yards and six scores in three years as a collegiate receiver.

Strengths

Exceptional athleticism

Great size (6-foot-2 1/2, 231 pounds)

Acceptable speed (official 4.51 seconds in the 40-yard dash)

Terrific vision and body control

Little has a lot of upside

Catches well over both shoulders

Lateral agility, quickness and size allow him to make impressive open-field moves

Former running back - tough to bring down

High upside

Consistently makes circus catches

Read more: http://www.kffl.com/a.php/127575/nfl-draft/2011-NFL-Draft-Scouting-Report--Greg-Little--WR--North-Carolina#ixzz1zPw0tdzH

I don't really see where these quotes contradict anything I posted. Look, he was a RB. It is no surprise he is stronger than most WRs, and no surprise that he is athletic and can break tackles. None of that disputes what I commented on that are not positives about him: average speed, poor route running, lack of concentration at times, demonstrated poor character/maturity.No question, I am not a scout. But I stand by my take. I doubt Little will be in the league 5 years from now.

 

[sspunisher]

For those lesser experienced fantasy players in the Shark Pool who actually rely on these Player Spotlights, it's unfortunate that Just Win Baby is leading the charge on Greg Little.

Nothing personal dude, but your "scouting" is so incredibly unjustified and misguided. Nanee, Hester, and Randle El have absolutely no business whatsoever even being mentioned in a Greg Little thread. You're exposing your lack of having actually scouted Little by even saying those 3 names. There are no valid comparisions between the three when it comes to their ability as WRs.

The only legitimate concern about Little is Weeden. A huge, legitimate concern. But as bad as Weeden might possibly be, he will be an upgrade over last year's QB situation. Just by sheer arm strength he's an upgrade and that's all the reassurance I need.

As for 2012: 75 Receptions, 1,000 Yards, 5 TDs is his floor.

 

[Tau837]

For those lesser experienced fantasy players in the Shark Pool who actually rely on these Player Spotlights, it's unfortunate that Just Win Baby is leading the charge on Greg Little.

Nothing personal dude, but your "scouting" is so incredibly unjustified and misguided. Nanee, Hester, and Randle El have absolutely no business whatsoever even being mentioned in a Greg Little thread. You're exposing your lack of having actually scouted Little by even saying those 3 names. There are no valid comparisions between the three when it comes to their ability as WRs.

The only legitimate concern about Little is Weeden. A huge, legitimate concern. But as bad as Weeden might possibly be, he will be an upgrade over last year's QB situation. Just by sheer arm strength he's an upgrade and that's all the reassurance I need.

As for 2012: 75 Receptions, 1,000 Yards, 5 TDs is his floor.

I'm not claiming to be a scout. I even said I wasn't.I came up with those names as examples of other players who came into the NFL as WRs who had not played much WR in college. Do you have better examples?

Since you seem anxious to enlighten everyone on this subject, can you post how many passing yards and passing TDs you expect from the Cleveland passing game? Even better would be seeing your breakdown of how those will be distributed across the players in the Cleveland offense.

 

[todisco1]

I don't really see where these quotes contradict anything I posted.

You're kidding right? I mean you posted the words "I'm not seeing a lot of potential here" and the scouting reports are saying "He has the ability to develop into an upper echelon receiver in the NFL" and "Little has a lot of upside." That's completely the opposite of what you're saying. You're saying he has little shot and they're saying he can be great. I mean it can't get much more opposite. I have no problem with you not liking Little, but at least admit that his upside was pretty highly regarding going into the draft.

 

[Tau837]

I don't really see where these quotes contradict anything I posted.

You're kidding right? I mean you posted the words "I'm not seeing a lot of potential here" and the scouting reports are saying "He has the ability to develop into an upper echelon receiver in the NFL" and "Little has a lot of upside." That's completely the opposite of what you're saying. You're saying he has little shot and they're saying he can be great. I mean it can't get much more opposite. I have no problem with you not liking Little, but at least admit that his upside was pretty highly regarding going into the draft.

I posted this to begin with:

He has good leaping ability and good tackle breaking ability. He isn't afraid to go over the middle. His hands are solid, though his concentration at times is not (hence the drops last year). Are those things the "natural talent"?

Some of what you posted agrees with that stuff. I also posted this:

He has average speed and doesn't really get great separation. He doesn't run routes particularly well, which I suppose can improve with more reps. And he demonstrated poor character and maturity in college. Is that stuff offset by his "natural talent"?

I don't see any of this contradicted in your posts. This is what I was referring to.

Edit to add these weaknesses, which support my take:

NFL

Does not possess the deep speed to stretch the field. High cut player that struggles at times to sink his hips and will lose speed in transition. Not the shiftiest runner in the open field and will not consistently get yards after the catch. Missed his entire 2010 season and will have to get back into football shape.

National Football Report

Route running is still raw. Only average speed and acceleration. Blocking needs work. Could be a “diva” WR. NFL teams will want to look into his character and see if there is more issues like the ones that lead to his suspension for 2010.

 

[todisco1]

Let's just agree to disagree. I mean you said you see no potential and others are saying they see tons of potential, to me that's a contradiction, but I'd rather just leave it at this point.

 

[sspunisher]

I'm not claiming to be a scout. I even said I wasn't.I came up with those names as examples of other players who came into the NFL as WRs who had not played much WR in college. Do you have better examples?Since you seem anxious to enlighten everyone on this subject, can you post how many passing yards and passing TDs you expect from the Cleveland passing game? Even better would be seeing your breakdown of how those will be distributed across the players in the Cleveland offense.

I understand that, but just the way you break down Little is really off. Little isn't a player that's transitioning to WR after having never played it. Didn't Hester play cornerback? Wasn't Randle El playing a majority of QB in college? Little pretty much only played WR for one year in college but he played it successfully and showed great flashes. And he wasn't a DB or QB. He was a RB, that's a huge difference. No matter what anyone says, Little's 2011 season was a success, regardless of the circumstances. He's shown more in his rookie year than Hester and Randle El have in their entire careers. I'm going to stop comparing them b/c it doesn't do Little justice.Just to keep things simple:McCoy's Yards Per Attempt: 5.9 Per Attempt. Only Blaine Gabbert was worse. McCoy's completion percentage: 57.2% (Bottom 5 in the league)14 TDs and 11 INTs. Weeden's Yards Per attempt WILL be higher. That's the only assumption I'm making and it's a fair assumption to make considering the gap between his arm and McCoy's arm is absolutely huge. Other than that, even if Weeden throws for the worst completion percentage in the entire league next year (somewhere around 55%), he'll still make Little more fantasy relevant than McCoy did last year.

 

[r3t2]

i'm all in on little. havent felt like this about a player since right before shady broke out.

80/1100/7

That would be good for 232 points, which would have placed him at WR10 this year. A low end WR1. No chance. I love the offseason and it's wildly optimistic projections.

never say "no chance." nelson, cruz, lynch, gronk, graham, stafford, JPP, sproles. every year a dozen players do something no one thought was possible. you may be right, but of course he a chance. if youre gonna win your league you can't just predict last year's numbers.what do you think he will do this year?

You're right, I shouldn't say no chance. But I don't see any way for a rookie QB on a run first offense to let Little post those numbers, especially in that division. I expect a improvement on last year's efficiency numbers(same number of targets), but there will be growing pains with Weeden, no matter how old he is.72 rec, 908 yards, 4 TDs

well, if i get him in the 7th/8th and i get your prediction i think i could live with that too. we only differ by 8 catches, 192 yds, and 3 TDs. now if i get that from julio in the 3rd it's gonna hurt.

 

[Tau837]

Just to keep things simple:McCoy's Yards Per Attempt: 5.9 Per Attempt. Only Blaine Gabbert was worse. McCoy's completion percentage: 57.2% (Bottom 5 in the league)14 TDs and 11 INTs. Weeden's Yards Per attempt WILL be higher. That's the only assumption I'm making and it's a fair assumption to make considering the gap between his arm and McCoy's arm is absolutely huge. Other than that, even if Weeden throws for the worst completion percentage in the entire league next year (somewhere around 55%), he'll still make Little more fantasy relevant than McCoy did last year.

I agree it is likely Weeden's ypa will be higher. His completion percentage may also be higher. But those could both be true and yet all or mostly mitigated if the team's passing attempts are sufficiently lower. That's why I asked you for your projection on their passing yards and passing TDs. Those things are relevant when projecting Little's production.

 

[NJ]

According to ProFootballFocus, there were 115 WRs who played at least 25% of their teams' offensive snaps last year. Among those WRs, PFF rated Little as follows:#114 overall, the second worst WR, ahead of only Legedu Naanee.#115 receiving, the absolute worst.Tied for #91 in blocking.Combine that with his past character/off field issues and his lack of experience at WR, which puts him behind at his own position, and I'm really not getting all the positive hype.Some people seem to think that the fact that he didn't play WR much in college is somehow a positive. I don't think there are many examples of guys who didn't play much WR prior to the NFL becoming top NFL WRs. Why are people convinced Little will be an exception?Some people seem to believe the passing game will be much improved over last year. It seems more likely the running game will be improved, which should lead to fewer passing attempts. But what really matters is how much they will improve on their 3090 passing yards and 16 passing TDs last season. My guess is they won't improve much. In which case, I don't see too much improvement in Little's performance.Last year, Little had 61/709/2 receiving on 120 targets. I expect his targets to be relatively similar and his catch percentage and yards per reception to go up a bit. I doubt the passing TDs will change much; it's much more likely that any additional TDs will go to Richardson.I'll project 73/850/3, assuming he plays all 16 games.

I've seen these PFF "ratings" posted several times now with regards to Greg Little and I have to question exactly how relevant these stats are to predicting future fantasy stats. I mean first off, I'm somewhat puzzled as to how they actually do their ratings, its seems that they actually watch every play and rate each game individually and total them up for the season and they admit there is some subjectivity to doing it that way. Because from a stats perspective, I see clear inconsistencies in their week to week ratings of players. For instance, Little's best game was week 15 when he had 5-131 including a 76 yard TD. If I look at a comparable game for Calvin Johnson, week 5 he had 5-130 including a 73 yard TD, yet the PFF rating for Calvin in that game was over 3 times higher than Greg Little's rating for an almost identical fantasy stat line. No doubt due to the fact that Little had 3 more targets than Calvin did so Calvin had the better catch% but a rating over 3x greater for almost identical stats seems a little off to me, if not downright useless from a fantasy perspective. Most people are already aware of Little's drops and low catch% last season and feel it was due to both poor play from McCoy and a lack of concentration/focus on Little's part and that he should improve in that area this year, if PFF is using catch% as one of the main indicators when coming up with their "rating" then of course Greg Little is going to be one of the worst as he had the most drops in the league last year, but like TDs, drops are extremely hard to predict season to season, if you look at PFFs "Drop %" stats there are many guys that go from bottom 10 in the league to top 10 year to year without explanation, I think Greg Little is likely to improve significantly in this PFF rating if he gets rid of the "dropsies" and if Weeden is even slightly more accurate than McCoy was. Even more evidence that they use catch % heavily in their ratings is just taking a look at Jordy Nelson, Nelson was amongst the bottom 10 in the NFL in 2010 with 11 drops out of 77 "catchable" balls thrown his way and like Little he had a low TD per catch ratio as they both only caught 2 TDs thus Nelson's 2010 PFF "rating" that year had him ranked in the 60s, in 2011 Nelson only dropped 2 passes and he jumps to number 4 in their "ratings", if you were following their ratings in 2010 you would have clearly missed out on Nelson's 2011 breakout season because of his drops the year before.Also, because Little only had 2 TDs last year I see people projecting him for ~75 catches and only like 3 TDs which is just off IMHO. TDs are one of the hardest predictors year to year and can fluctuate greatly and people seem to over-react greatly in this area every year. As already pointed out Jordy Nelson only gets 2 TDs in 2010 so everyone projects him for that in 2011 and he gets 15 and now everyone projects him for double digit TDs again this year. Just look at a guy like Bowe, he averages 5-7/year his whole career, then blows up for 15 last season, everyone projects double digits again and he only gets 5, now I see some FBG staffers projecting him for 4 this year? It's just a crazy over-reaction to one years worth of stats. I looked up every WR that had 75+ catches over the last 10 years in the NFL and only about 10% had less than 5 TDs so I think that's a fairly good indicator of how many TDs you can expect a guy to get on average based on the number of catches you project, just based on past history I don't see why anyone would project a guy to catch 70-75 passes and only 3 TDs? I think if he catches 75 balls he gets 5-6 TDs easily with an outside shot to get a few more than that.

 

[Tau837]

I've seen these PFF "ratings" posted several times now with regards to Greg Little and I have to question exactly how relevant these stats are to predicting future fantasy stats. I mean first off, I'm somewhat puzzled as to how they actually do their ratings, its seems that they actually watch every play and rate each game individually and total them up for the season and they admit there is some subjectivity to doing it that way. Because from a stats perspective, I see clear inconsistencies in their week to week ratings of players. For instance, Little's best game was week 15 when he had 5-131 including a 76 yard TD. If I look at a comparable game for Calvin Johnson, week 5 he had 5-130 including a 73 yard TD, yet the PFF rating for Calvin in that game was over 3 times higher than Greg Little's rating for an almost identical fantasy stat line. No doubt due to the fact that Little had 3 more targets than Calvin did so Calvin had the better catch% but a rating over 3x greater for almost identical stats seems a little off to me, if not downright useless from a fantasy perspective.

In the example you gave (week 5 for Johnson, week 15 for Little), PFF gave them receiving ratings of 2.6 for Johnson and 1.4 for Little, so the receiving game performance for Johnson was not rated 3 times higher. Little's overall rating was brought down by his run blocking moreso than Johnson's was.It's true that PFF's ratings are subjective, and there may be no direct correlation to fantasy. It's just another source of unbiased information. It may not mean much to say one player is rated 3 spots above another player, or similar comparisons. But IMO it is a red flag for a player to grade out at the bottom of the ratings, which is why I posted it. Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

Very interesting. Were there many examples of young WRs rated highly who have since become great NFL WRs? Or young/mid-age WRs rated highly who were complete busts? Just trying to get a sense of what types of directional bias exist in PFF.Very much enjoying the discussion from both sides, thanks to all for thoughtful posts.

 

[Irish Chaos]

I've seen these PFF "ratings" posted several times now with regards to Greg Little and I have to question exactly how relevant these stats are to predicting future fantasy stats. I mean first off, I'm somewhat puzzled as to how they actually do their ratings, its seems that they actually watch every play and rate each game individually and total them up for the season and they admit there is some subjectivity to doing it that way. Because from a stats perspective, I see clear inconsistencies in their week to week ratings of players. For instance, Little's best game was week 15 when he had 5-131 including a 76 yard TD. If I look at a comparable game for Calvin Johnson, week 5 he had 5-130 including a 73 yard TD, yet the PFF rating for Calvin in that game was over 3 times higher than Greg Little's rating for an almost identical fantasy stat line. No doubt due to the fact that Little had 3 more targets than Calvin did so Calvin had the better catch% but a rating over 3x greater for almost identical stats seems a little off to me, if not downright useless from a fantasy perspective.

In the example you gave (week 5 for Johnson, week 15 for Little), PFF gave them receiving ratings of 2.6 for Johnson and 1.4 for Little, so the receiving game performance for Johnson was not rated 3 times higher. Little's overall rating was brought down by his run blocking moreso than Johnson's was.It's true that PFF's ratings are subjective, and there may be no direct correlation to fantasy. It's just another source of unbiased information. It may not mean much to say one player is rated 3 spots above another player, or similar comparisons. But IMO it is a red flag for a player to grade out at the bottom of the ratings, which is why I posted it. Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

Not sure how that makes any sense?

 

[NJ]

In the example you gave (week 5 for Johnson, week 15 for Little), PFF gave them receiving ratings of 2.6 for Johnson and 1.4 for Little, so the receiving game performance for Johnson was not rated 3 times higher. Little's overall rating was brought down by his run blocking moreso than Johnson's was.

I'm looking at it right now and they have Little's week 15 performance rated as a 0.8 (the 1.4 you quoted is for his week 16 performance at Baltimore, where he had less targets but only 4 catches for 40 yards and 0 TDs so I guess he must have run blocked real well that week since he only had 40 yards and no TDs and that was his 2nd highest rating of the year) So Calvin's 5-130-1TD performance (rated 2.6) WAS rated over 3 times higher than Little's identical stat line in week 15 (rated 0.8).

It's true that PFF's ratings are subjective, and there may be no direct correlation to fantasy. It's just another source of unbiased information. It may not mean much to say one player is rated 3 spots above another player, or similar comparisons. But IMO it is a red flag for a player to grade out at the bottom of the ratings, which is why I posted it. Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

While I agree its not a good thing to be ranked so low on any list, I don't think its a death sentance. Like you said its another tool and possibly can be useful in identifying players to target, but I'm not sure exactly how to make it useful for fantasy football, I still see a lot of guys consistantly ranked outside the top 50 that I'd still like to have on my fantasy team. Before last year Jordy Nelson was coming in at 66, 64, etc. Guys like DeSean Jackson and Dwayne Bowe are consistantly ranked low, Bowe was 69th in 08 and 83rd in 09 right before his monster 2010 season. DJAX was 60th in 09 and 104 in 2010. Maclin 51 and 53 respectively. And if you want a young guy that came out of no where, Darrius Heyward Bey jumps off the page at me, he was 106 in 2009 and 110 in 2010 and then jumped up to 39th last season. I think Little needs to be given a chance, he put up very respectable numbers for a rookie so obviously his drops and his run blocking is the reason he was ranked so low by PFF. Those are both things he can work on. We don't get fantasy points for run blocking, but clearly its something he's going to need to learn how to do if he's going to stay a starter in the NFL.As a side note, Little was 61-709-2TD last year and ranked 114th by PFF while another rookie WR Doug Baldwin went 51-788-4TD and was ranked 15th. Not sure how to process that, should we all be jumping all over Baldwin right now? They also have Jerricho Cotchery (16-237-2TD last year) ranked 21st overall Also plenty of guys ranked high that I wouldn't likely be drafting. Another Cleveland WR, Josh Cribbs, comes in at 30th on their list. Jeremey Kerley of the Jets (29-314-1TD) comes in at 33rd on their list, Kyle Williams (20-241-3TD) comes in at 37th on their list...etc. etc. etc.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I dug around PFF looking for more detail on Little, here's what I found

"showed promise in his first NFL season" - vague but faintly promising

Led all WRs in missed tackles (17) - leveraging his RB roots I guess

versatile: played slot, RWR, LWR & even RB

Didn't like

very low catch rate

2nd most drops

I dug up what FBG's own Matt Waldman thought about Little, here's what he liked

route running

receiving

elite level elusiveness

elite level balance

elite level vision

elite level power

Didn't see much that he didn't like aside from describing him as a risky pick

 

[Tau837]

It's true that PFF's ratings are subjective, and there may be no direct correlation to fantasy. It's just another source of unbiased information. It may not mean much to say one player is rated 3 spots above another player, or similar comparisons. But IMO it is a red flag for a player to grade out at the bottom of the ratings, which is why I posted it. Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

Not sure how that makes any sense?

Subjective <> biased

 

[Tau837]

In the example you gave (week 5 for Johnson, week 15 for Little), PFF gave them receiving ratings of 2.6 for Johnson and 1.4 for Little, so the receiving game performance for Johnson was not rated 3 times higher. Little's overall rating was brought down by his run blocking moreso than Johnson's was.

I'm looking at it right now and they have Little's week 15 performance rated as a 0.8 (the 1.4 you quoted is for his week 16 performance at Baltimore, where he had less targets but only 4 catches for 40 yards and 0 TDs so I guess he must have run blocked real well that week since he only had 40 yards and no TDs and that was his 2nd highest rating of the year) So Calvin's 5-130-1TD performance (rated 2.6) WAS rated over 3 times higher than Little's identical stat line in week 15 (rated 0.8).

We're seeing different things somehow. In week 15, CLE @ ARI, Little had 5/131/1 on 8 targets. PFF gave Little a 1.4 "Passing" rating. (It is labeled "Passing" but defined as passing and receiving.) That is what I referenced above.In week 16, CLE @ BAL, PFF gave him a 1.7 Passing rating.You are trying to correlate his receiving line to the rating. That's part of it, but not all of it. As part of their explanation on how they grade, they say:

We examine not just the statistical result of a play, but the context of that statistic. The defensive tackle may have made a tackle on a play, but if it was 3rd-and-5 and he got blown 4 yards off of the ball to make the tackle after a 6-yard gain, that’s not a good play.

Again, reasonable people may disagree on the value of their ratings. I find them valuable.

 

[NJ]

We're seeing different things somehow. In week 15, CLE @ ARI, Little had 5/131/1 on 8 targets. PFF gave Little a 1.4 "Passing" rating. (It is labeled "Passing" but defined as passing and receiving.) That is what I referenced above.In week 16, CLE @ BAL, PFF gave him a 1.7 Passing rating.You are trying to correlate his receiving line to the rating. That's part of it, but not all of it.

Well I thought we were talking about PFF's overall rating for a game in which their fantasy stats were identical. The 1.4 is Little's "Pass Rating" but his "overall rating" for the week is 0.8 while Calvin's was 2.5. So clearly Little took a big hit that week for his run blocking or else why was Calvin's overall rating almost identical to his pass rating while Little's overall rating was significantly lower than his pass rating. In addition, Little was obviously also penalized heavily for the lower catch rate since they posted identical receiving stats but Calvin got a 2.6 "pass rating" and Little a 1.4???

 

[Tau837]

We're seeing different things somehow. In week 15, CLE @ ARI, Little had 5/131/1 on 8 targets. PFF gave Little a 1.4 "Passing" rating. (It is labeled "Passing" but defined as passing and receiving.) That is what I referenced above.In week 16, CLE @ BAL, PFF gave him a 1.7 Passing rating.You are trying to correlate his receiving line to the rating. That's part of it, but not all of it.

Well I thought we were talking about PFF's overall rating for a game in which their fantasy stats were identical. The 1.4 is Little's "Pass Rating" but his "overall rating" for the week is 0.8 while Calvin's was 2.5. So clearly Little took a big hit that week for his run blocking or else why was Calvin's overall rating almost identical to his pass rating while Little's overall rating was significantly lower than his pass rating. In addition, Little was obviously also penalized heavily for the lower catch rate since they posted identical receiving stats but Calvin got a 2.6 "pass rating" and Little a 1.4???

I feel like you aren't reading my posts or I am not communicating well. Regardless, I recommend we move discussion of PFF rating methodology to another thread to avoid further hijacking this one.

 

[Irish Chaos]

It's true that PFF's ratings are subjective, and there may be no direct correlation to fantasy. It's just another source of unbiased information. It may not mean much to say one player is rated 3 spots above another player, or similar comparisons. But IMO it is a red flag for a player to grade out at the bottom of the ratings, which is why I posted it. Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

Not sure how that makes any sense?

Subjective <> biased

To me something that is subjective means that it would also have bias involved. My question was how can something be subjective and unbiased?

 

[Tau837]

It's true that PFF's ratings are subjective, and there may be no direct correlation to fantasy. It's just another source of unbiased information. It may not mean much to say one player is rated 3 spots above another player, or similar comparisons. But IMO it is a red flag for a player to grade out at the bottom of the ratings, which is why I posted it. Scanning the WRs who graded out towards the bottom from 2008 to 2010, there are no cases that jump out at me as examples of WRs who have since become great NFL WRs but were graded low by PFF.

Not sure how that makes any sense?

Subjective <> biased

To me something that is subjected means that it would have bias involved. My question was how can something be subjective and unbiased?

To be subjective means to apply an interpretation to an experience. To be biased means to favor one side over another, i.e., to show favoritism.The very act of grading is subjective. This is not unlike scouting in sports. Scouting reports are subjective, not objective. Does that mean they are all biased? No.

 

[NJ]

Subjective <> biased

sub·jec·tive   /səbˈdʒɛktɪv/ Show Spelled[suhb-jek-tiv] - adjective - placing excessive emphasis on one's own moods, attitudes, opinions, etc.;

 

[Slider]

75 catches 1050 yards 10 Td's. Never underestimate a well run wco. If Weeden is any better than McCoy (he has to be with Richardson) I see Little as a nice surprise with a full camp.

 

[lbouchard]

75 catches 1050 yards 10 Td's. Never underestimate a well run wco. If Weeden is any better than McCoy (he has to be with Richardson) I see Little as a nice surprise with a full camp.

If Little is catching 10 TDs, how many TDs is Weeden throwing for? 25+? No matter how old he is, I doubt it

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I'm with Just Win Baby....Little is very overrated. Nothing shown last year gives me an indication he has what it takes to be more than a WR3 ever in FF.

 

[Bamac]

Subjective <> biased

sub·jec·tive   /səbˈdʒɛktɪv/ Show Spelled[suhb-jek-tiv] - adjective - placing excessive emphasis on one's own moods, attitudes, opinions, etc.;

Not your fault, but that's a poor definition in this context. Here, subjective means that the grade is based on some individual's evaluation of the performance, rather than purely objective stats. It's "unbiased" if the evaluator doesn't care who comes out on top.

 

[cheese]

I love his oppurtunity and it seems like people are talking up his offseason improvement. These are 2 huge factors for me.

The down side is I simply hated everything about his game last season. His lack of seperation combine with an inability to catch the ball in traffic seems like a horrible combo.

Somebody has to get the targets again this year though and every year is different. Maybe he plays like a completely different guy.

In other words, I have no idea on Little.

 

[Tau837]

Subjective <> biased

sub·jec·tive   /səbˈdʒɛktɪv/ Show Spelled[suhb-jek-tiv] - adjective - placing excessive emphasis on one's own moods, attitudes, opinions, etc.;

Not your fault, but that's a poor definition in this context. Here, subjective means that the grade is based on some individual's evaluation of the performance, rather than purely objective stats. It's "unbiased" if the evaluator doesn't care who comes out on top.

 

[karmarooster]

Rather than arguing semantics, here are my thoughts.

Hester played CB and PR/KR in college. Nanee and Randle El played QB in college. Little played RB.... you know who else did? Percy Harvin. Although he's smaller, Harvin has some similar power in his lower body.

Rookie year for Harvin was somewhat similar to Little last year, albeit with a much higher catch rate. (For reference, Harvin's career catch rate is 68%; as a rookie it was 65%).

As a rookie Harvin posted 60 for 790 and 6 TDs. He's improved every year and was awesome last year, but had a great boost from his rushing stats. I doubt Little will see anything close in terms of rushing attempts, but there are other similarites. Harvin played last year with a strong-armed rookie QB, a superstar RB, and not much else on offense. Sound familiar?

As such, something along the line of Harvin's 2nd or 3rd year receiving stats are within reason. I expect Little to improve his catch rate - everything was against him last year (the lockout, the position switch, and the QB situation). Call it another 120 targets with a 55-60% catch rate and that's 65-72 receptions, with a slightly higher YPC of 13 and that's 845 to 936 yards. IMO those are fairly cautious projections. The upside is something like 75-80 receptions for 1,000-1,000 yards.

Current ADP is at WR38, and that would justify the more cautious projections. If he hits his upside, he could be a solid WR2 at a discount WR3 price.

 

[NJ]

Not your fault, but that's a poor definition in this context. Here, subjective means that the grade is based on some individual's evaluation of the performance, rather than purely objective stats. It's "unbiased" if the evaluator doesn't care who comes out on top.

I think that is sort of the point, the fact that its subjective ALLOWS bias to potentially play a part, it doesn't mean that every rating IS definitely biased. It might very well not be, but when you have two guys post similar stats for the season and one gets ranked in the top 15 and another gets ranked dead last outside of the top 100, it would appear that maybe there is some inconsistancies or bias in how the ratings are done. I fully understand the ratings take into account other things besides stats, but are we really supposed to believe that Greg Little is the worst WR in the league? There are dozens of complete turds rated higher than him.At any rate, I will concede that being last on that list is not somewhere you want to be and he has a lot to work on, I won't continue to debate it because its obvious neither side is going to convince the other they are right.As for projections I'll go with 73-940-6TD

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Rather than arguing semantics, here are my thoughts. Hester played CB and PR/KR in college. Nanee and Randle El played QB in college. Little played RB.... you know who else did? Percy Harvin. Although he's smaller, Harvin has some similar power in his lower body. Rookie year for Harvin was somewhat similar to Little last year, albeit with a much higher catch rate. (For reference, Harvin's career catch rate is 68%; as a rookie it was 65%). As a rookie Harvin posted 60 for 790 and 6 TDs. He's improved every year and was awesome last year, but had a great boost from his rushing stats. I doubt Little will see anything close in terms of rushing attempts, but there are other similarites. Harvin played last year with a strong-armed rookie QB, a superstar RB, and not much else on offense. Sound familiar?As such, something along the line of Harvin's 2nd or 3rd year receiving stats are within reason. I expect Little to improve his catch rate - everything was against him last year (the lockout, the position switch, and the QB situation). Call it another 120 targets with a 55-60% catch rate and that's 65-72 receptions, with a slightly higher YPC of 13 and that's 845 to 936 yards. IMO those are fairly cautious projections. The upside is something like 75-80 receptions for 1,000-1,000 yards.Current ADP is at WR38, and that would justify the more cautious projections. If he hits his upside, he could be a solid WR2 at a discount WR3 price.

Greg Little 6'2 2314.53/4027 reps50.8 catch%Percy Harvin 5'11 1924.39/4020 reps65.9 catch% his rookie year65.1% his 2nd year72.5% his 3rd yearPPR FF points in rookie season(no rushing stats):Greg Little=143.9 on 120 targetsPercy Harvin=175 on 91 targetsCompletely different WRs in shape, athletic ability, and in first year as WR in the NFL.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Rather than arguing semantics, here are my thoughts. Hester played CB and PR/KR in college. Nanee and Randle El played QB in college. Little played RB.... you know who else did? Percy Harvin. Although he's smaller, Harvin has some similar power in his lower body. Rookie year for Harvin was somewhat similar to Little last year, albeit with a much higher catch rate. (For reference, Harvin's career catch rate is 68%; as a rookie it was 65%). As a rookie Harvin posted 60 for 790 and 6 TDs. He's improved every year and was awesome last year, but had a great boost from his rushing stats. I doubt Little will see anything close in terms of rushing attempts, but there are other similarites. Harvin played last year with a strong-armed rookie QB, a superstar RB, and not much else on offense. Sound familiar?As such, something along the line of Harvin's 2nd or 3rd year receiving stats are within reason. I expect Little to improve his catch rate - everything was against him last year (the lockout, the position switch, and the QB situation). Call it another 120 targets with a 55-60% catch rate and that's 65-72 receptions, with a slightly higher YPC of 13 and that's 845 to 936 yards. IMO those are fairly cautious projections. The upside is something like 75-80 receptions for 1,000-1,000 yards.Current ADP is at WR38, and that would justify the more cautious projections. If he hits his upside, he could be a solid WR2 at a discount WR3 price.

Greg Little 6'2 2314.53/4027 reps50.8 catch%Percy Harvin 5'11 1924.39/4020 reps 65.9 catch% his rookie year65.1% his 2nd year72.5% his 3rd yearPPR FF points in rookie season(no rushing stats):Greg Little=143.9 on 120 targetsPercy Harvin=175 on 91 targetsCompletely different WRs in shape, athletic ability, and in first year as WR in the NFL.

They also had completely different QBs their first year in the NFL. You already know that, but you didn't mention it because it doesn't support your case.

 

[Tau837]

This whole perspective that Little did not play WR before his rookie season last year seems pretty far off base. From his UNC Player Bio:

High School - Excelled at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, linebacker, safety and cornerback while helping Hillside to a 10-3 finish • As a senior, had 55 catches for 969 yards and nine touchdowns as a receiver...

2007 - Freshman Season

Versatile rookie played in all 12 games • Ran for 300 yards and two scores on 59 carries and had 13 catches for 99 yards and a receiving TD • Averaged 5.1 yards per game, a team-best for tailbacks • Moved from receiver to tailback for the final two games and rushed for 247 yards...

2008 - Sophomore Season

Shifted back to wide receiver prior to the Virginia game following Brandon Tate's knee injury...

2009 - Junior Season

Versatile performer who started all 13 games at wide receiver...

By my count, that is 30 games of college experience at WR out of a possible 38 total games (10/12 + 7/13 + 13/13). Not including the season he missed due to suspension, of course. Plus some high school experience.

 

[NJ]

So how about Dwayne Bowe for a comparison?

Greg Little

6'2 1/2" 231 lbs

4.51/40

6.8/3 cone drill

4.21/20 yard shuttle

27/bench press

40.5/verticle

129/broad jump

Rookie Catch % 50.8

Dwayne Bowe

6'2 1/4" 221 lbs

4.51/40

6.81/3 cone drill

4.35/20 yard shuttle

DNP/bench press

33/verticle

125/broad jump

Catch %

2007 59.8%

2008 54.8%

2009 54.0%

2010 55.0%

2011 57.0%

Bowe also received similarly low PFF marks early in his career, 69th in 2008 and 83rd in 2009. Can't get his rookie year because they only go back to 2008.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This whole perspective that Little did not play WR before his rookie season last year seems pretty far off base. From his UNC Player Bio:

High School - Excelled at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, linebacker, safety and cornerback while helping Hillside to a 10-3 finish • As a senior, had 55 catches for 969 yards and nine touchdowns as a receiver...

2007 - Freshman Season

Versatile rookie played in all 12 games • Ran for 300 yards and two scores on 59 carries and had 13 catches for 99 yards and a receiving TD • Averaged 5.1 yards per game, a team-best for tailbacks • Moved from receiver to tailback for the final two games and rushed for 247 yards...

2008 - Sophomore Season

Shifted back to wide receiver prior to the Virginia game following Brandon Tate's knee injury...

2009 - Junior Season

Versatile performer who started all 13 games at wide receiver...

By my count, that is 30 games of college experience at WR out of a possible 38 total games (10/12 + 7/13 + 13/13). Not including the season he missed due to suspension, of course. Plus some high school experience.

Does this mean you are no longer concerned by the idea that he barely played WR before last year?

Some people seem to think that the fact that he didn't play WR much in college is somehow a positive. I don't think there are many examples of guys who didn't play much WR prior to the NFL becoming top NFL WRs. Why are people convinced Little will be an exception?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Rather than arguing semantics, here are my thoughts. Hester played CB and PR/KR in college. Nanee and Randle El played QB in college. Little played RB.... you know who else did? Percy Harvin. Although he's smaller, Harvin has some similar power in his lower body. Rookie year for Harvin was somewhat similar to Little last year, albeit with a much higher catch rate. (For reference, Harvin's career catch rate is 68%; as a rookie it was 65%). As a rookie Harvin posted 60 for 790 and 6 TDs. He's improved every year and was awesome last year, but had a great boost from his rushing stats. I doubt Little will see anything close in terms of rushing attempts, but there are other similarites. Harvin played last year with a strong-armed rookie QB, a superstar RB, and not much else on offense. Sound familiar?As such, something along the line of Harvin's 2nd or 3rd year receiving stats are within reason. I expect Little to improve his catch rate - everything was against him last year (the lockout, the position switch, and the QB situation). Call it another 120 targets with a 55-60% catch rate and that's 65-72 receptions, with a slightly higher YPC of 13 and that's 845 to 936 yards. IMO those are fairly cautious projections. The upside is something like 75-80 receptions for 1,000-1,000 yards.Current ADP is at WR38, and that would justify the more cautious projections. If he hits his upside, he could be a solid WR2 at a discount WR3 price.

Greg Little 6'2 2314.53/4027 reps50.8 catch%Percy Harvin 5'11 1924.39/4020 reps 65.9 catch% his rookie year65.1% his 2nd year72.5% his 3rd yearPPR FF points in rookie season(no rushing stats):Greg Little=143.9 on 120 targetsPercy Harvin=175 on 91 targetsCompletely different WRs in shape, athletic ability, and in first year as WR in the NFL.

They also had completely different QBs their first year in the NFL. You already know that, but you didn't mention it because it doesn't support your case.

Percy Harvin's QBs:Brett Favre 2009 was amazing. 33 TD 7 INT Brett Favre 2010 was bad. 11 TD 19 INT for 13 games...then the great Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb filled in.2011- Donovan McNabb for 6 games had 4 TD and 2 INT. Rookie Christian Ponder started for 10 games and beat Colt McCoy in only one category(yards per attempt). Oh don't forget the great Joe Webb started a game as well.Good QB play isn't the reason Percy Harvin's catch % is head and shoulders better than Greg Little.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

So how about Dwayne Bowe for a comparison?Greg Little6'2 1/2" 231 lbs4.51/406.8/3 cone drill4.21/20 yard shuttle27/bench press40.5/verticle129/broad jumpRookie Catch % 50.8Dwayne Bowe6'2 1/4" 221 lbs4.51/406.81/3 cone drill4.35/20 yard shuttleDNP/bench press33/verticle125/broad jumpCatch %2007 59.8%2008 54.8%2009 54.0%2010 55.0%2011 57.0%Bowe also received similarly low PFF marks early in his career, 69th in 2008 and 83rd in 2009. Can't get his rookie year because they only go back to 2008.

It's a better physical comparison than Harvin.Bowe is just a better WR.Throwing out his injured 3rd season, Bowe has beaten Little in receptions/yards/TDs every season.Taking away Bowe's rookie season and 3rd season(only 11 games played) he averages 80 receptions for 1114 yards and 9 TDs on 144 targets as a veteran. I think we all can agree that Bowe's 15 TDs in 2010 are an outlier. 6 TDs per season seems more realistic(good for a mid WR2).Lets give Little the same amount of targets as Bowe's average 144(Little had 120 last season): 73 receptions(rounded up to a 51 catch %) 847 yards 2 TDsThat equals 174 points good for WR33 in PPR formats.Lets say Little improves some in regards to catch %, YPC, TD's...he's still a WR3ish type of WR unless something very unusual happens. WR's with bad catch %'s, low TD's per targets, low YPC...don't get 144 targets on the regular. How many WR's got 144 targets last season? 6. How many WR's got 144 targets in 2010? 6.Cleveland improved the QB position possibly...but I don't think they ignore the other WR/TE positions for very long either. Which will eliminate the possibility for Little to get that many targets.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Rather than arguing semantics, here are my thoughts. Hester played CB and PR/KR in college. Nanee and Randle El played QB in college. Little played RB.... you know who else did? Percy Harvin. Although he's smaller, Harvin has some similar power in his lower body. Rookie year for Harvin was somewhat similar to Little last year, albeit with a much higher catch rate. (For reference, Harvin's career catch rate is 68%; as a rookie it was 65%). As a rookie Harvin posted 60 for 790 and 6 TDs. He's improved every year and was awesome last year, but had a great boost from his rushing stats. I doubt Little will see anything close in terms of rushing attempts, but there are other similarites. Harvin played last year with a strong-armed rookie QB, a superstar RB, and not much else on offense. Sound familiar?As such, something along the line of Harvin's 2nd or 3rd year receiving stats are within reason. I expect Little to improve his catch rate - everything was against him last year (the lockout, the position switch, and the QB situation). Call it another 120 targets with a 55-60% catch rate and that's 65-72 receptions, with a slightly higher YPC of 13 and that's 845 to 936 yards. IMO those are fairly cautious projections. The upside is something like 75-80 receptions for 1,000-1,000 yards.Current ADP is at WR38, and that would justify the more cautious projections. If he hits his upside, he could be a solid WR2 at a discount WR3 price.

Greg Little 6'2 2314.53/4027 reps50.8 catch%Percy Harvin 5'11 1924.39/4020 reps 65.9 catch% his rookie year65.1% his 2nd year72.5% his 3rd yearPPR FF points in rookie season(no rushing stats):Greg Little=143.9 on 120 targetsPercy Harvin=175 on 91 targetsCompletely different WRs in shape, athletic ability, and in first year as WR in the NFL.

They also had completely different QBs their first year in the NFL. You already know that, but you didn't mention it because it doesn't support your case.

Percy Harvin's QBs:Brett Favre 2009 was amazing. 33 TD 7 INT Brett Favre 2010 was bad. 11 TD 19 INT for 13 games...then the great Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb filled in.2011- Donovan McNabb for 6 games had 4 TD and 2 INT. Rookie Christian Ponder started for 10 games and beat Colt McCoy in only one category(yards per attempt). Oh don't forget the great Joe Webb started a game as well.Good QB play isn't the reason Percy Harvin's catch % is head and shoulders better than Greg Little.

Uh, we only have rookie years to compare there, superstar. Again, you know this, but you're being intellectually dishonest. Perhaps unintentionally.

 

[sspunisher]

You kill me Benson. I agree with you about Harvin and Little being different beasts at the WR position. The only similarity is that they played RB in college. But yea, we clearly are on opposite ends of the spectrum on everything else Greg Little.

I'm extremely curious what your response will be (IF/WHEN) Greg Little has a successful 2012, and (IF/WHEN) a few years down the line he turns into a premier WR in the league. You've argued so passionately against him and I don't want to give you an inch to backtrack. Make your prediction and include any and all conditions.

Mine are pretty simple: Only bad QB play or injuries will hold Little back. Period.