Greg Little, WR, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

"downfield" distribution of little's rookie receptions...method - breaking down the distance from LOS to where he actually made the reception in five yard increments... at or behind LOS - 4 (6.5%)1-5 yards - 29 (47.5%)6-10 - 13 (21.3%) 11-15 - 7 (11.4%)16-20 - 5 (8.2%)21-25 - 1 (1.6%)26-30 - 1 (1.6%)31-35 - 0 (0%)36-40 - 0 (0%) 41-45 - 0 (0%)46-50 - 1 (1.6%)61 receptionsmore than half his receptions were within 5 yards of LOS (mccoy made chad pennington look like daryl "the mad bomber" lamonica)... 46/61 (75%) were inside 10 yards of LOS... just 12/61 (nearly 20%) were between 11-20 yards, and only 3/61 (5%) went for more than 20 yards...for whatever reasons, partly by design (? shurmur was STL OC in 2010 that produced a historically poor YPC average by danny amendola), mccoy having a weak arm, being under duress a lot, OL issues, lack of running game, other WR weapons, etc....be that as it may, CLEs profound inability to push the ball downfield led to some negative consequences for little, and represented something less than being ideally positioned for success in the passing game (this isn't even addressing the good points that he didn't have a lot of positional experience, sat out a year and had an abbreviated off-season)... it forced him to operate in a more compressed space of possibilities, allowing more defenders to converge around him more quickly... it also afforded DBs tasked with covering him the luxury of sitting on routes with virtual impunity...a more diversified offense and a stronger armed QB SHOULD position him for greater success going forward...as to how gordon could cut into his targets/receptions... as has been noted, we don't need to posit a static, zero sum game of possible pass plays from one season to the next... with better overall talent, for instance, more drives could be sustained, more overall plays, more red zone and scoring opportunities... in theory, he could get a smaller % of receptions to overall plays, but if it is a piece coming out of a bigger pie, the addition of gordon needn't drastically have a negative impact on his numbers... if at all?

Explain his low catch % Bob. If 75% of his receptions were within 10 yards...he should catch more than 51%.

 

[MAC_32]

"downfield" distribution of little's rookie receptions...method - breaking down the distance from LOS to where he actually made the reception in five yard increments... at or behind LOS - 4 (6.5%)1-5 yards - 29 (47.5%)6-10 - 13 (21.3%) 11-15 - 7 (11.4%)16-20 - 5 (8.2%)21-25 - 1 (1.6%)26-30 - 1 (1.6%)31-35 - 0 (0%)36-40 - 0 (0%) 41-45 - 0 (0%)46-50 - 1 (1.6%)61 receptionsmore than half his receptions were within 5 yards of LOS (mccoy made chad pennington look like daryl "the mad bomber" lamonica)... 46/61 (75%) were inside 10 yards of LOS... just 12/61 (nearly 20%) were between 11-20 yards, and only 3/61 (5%) went for more than 20 yards...for whatever reasons, partly by design (? shurmur was STL OC in 2010 that produced a historically poor YPC average by danny amendola), mccoy having a weak arm, being under duress a lot, OL issues, lack of running game, other WR weapons, etc....be that as it may, CLEs profound inability to push the ball downfield led to some negative consequences for little, and represented something less than being ideally positioned for success in the passing game (this isn't even addressing the good points that he didn't have a lot of positional experience, sat out a year and had an abbreviated off-season)... it forced him to operate in a more compressed space of possibilities, allowing more defenders to converge around him more quickly... it also afforded DBs tasked with covering him the luxury of sitting on routes with virtual impunity...a more diversified offense and a stronger armed QB SHOULD position him for greater success going forward...as to how gordon could cut into his targets/receptions... as has been noted, we don't need to posit a static, zero sum game of possible pass plays from one season to the next... with better overall talent, for instance, more drives could be sustained, more overall plays, more red zone and scoring opportunities... in theory, he could get a smaller % of receptions to overall plays, but if it is a piece coming out of a bigger pie, the addition of gordon needn't drastically have a negative impact on his numbers... if at all?

Explain his low catch % Bob. If 75% of his receptions were within 10 yards...he should catch more than 51%.

Drops, incorrect routes, Colt misreading the defense and throwing into coverage, Colt throwing behind Little, defenses compressing the field because they know Colt won't throw more than 10 yd routes leaving little (no pun intended) room to get open. Little controls the first two, the front office thinks Weeden will correct the last three.

 

[Bob Magaw]

"downfield" distribution of little's rookie receptions...method - breaking down the distance from LOS to where he actually made the reception in five yard increments... at or behind LOS - 4 (6.5%)1-5 yards - 29 (47.5%)6-10 - 13 (21.3%) 11-15 - 7 (11.4%)16-20 - 5 (8.2%)21-25 - 1 (1.6%)26-30 - 1 (1.6%)31-35 - 0 (0%)36-40 - 0 (0%) 41-45 - 0 (0%)46-50 - 1 (1.6%)61 receptionsmore than half his receptions were within 5 yards of LOS (mccoy made chad pennington look like daryl "the mad bomber" lamonica)... 46/61 (75%) were inside 10 yards of LOS... just 12/61 (nearly 20%) were between 11-20 yards, and only 3/61 (5%) went for more than 20 yards...for whatever reasons, partly by design (? shurmur was STL OC in 2010 that produced a historically poor YPC average by danny amendola), mccoy having a weak arm, being under duress a lot, OL issues, lack of running game, other WR weapons, etc....be that as it may, CLEs profound inability to push the ball downfield led to some negative consequences for little, and represented something less than being ideally positioned for success in the passing game (this isn't even addressing the good points that he didn't have a lot of positional experience, sat out a year and had an abbreviated off-season)... it forced him to operate in a more compressed space of possibilities, allowing more defenders to converge around him more quickly... it also afforded DBs tasked with covering him the luxury of sitting on routes with virtual impunity...a more diversified offense and a stronger armed QB SHOULD position him for greater success going forward...as to how gordon could cut into his targets/receptions... as has been noted, we don't need to posit a static, zero sum game of possible pass plays from one season to the next... with better overall talent, for instance, more drives could be sustained, more overall plays, more red zone and scoring opportunities... in theory, he could get a smaller % of receptions to overall plays, but if it is a piece coming out of a bigger pie, the addition of gordon needn't drastically have a negative impact on his numbers... if at all?

Explain his low catch % Bob. If 75% of his receptions were within 10 yards...he should catch more than 51%.

first, as a matter of thread house cleaning, my response to JWB was harsh and sorry for that... i get that his opinion on the degree of little's inexperience (which is commonly held, for right or wrong) was subject to revision...we can agree to disagree about the question of positional experience or lack of... with how to interpret freshman year being biggest question in my mind... with 13 receptions and 60 rushes, and two listed starts as RB, unless he had 30 carries each in those two games, it looks like he was used in a running capacity as much or more than receiving, and not, therefore, like a conventional WR (which is what several posters who claimed to follow little closely suggested)... benson, i don't want to come off as a little apologist... i can consider the possibility i'm wrong... the yards from LOS reception frequency distribution logged above was for receptions... i didn't look at all his drops, and not sure that same distribution held (but based on some below evidence this may be the case)...what prompted me to take the time on it was after watching the highlights i was left with the strong sense or impression that mccoy's lack of arm strength severely restricted his opportunities to make explosive plays after the catch, but wanted to make that more quantitative and rigorous...it doesn't seem too controversial to suggest that it played to opposing defense's advantage in 2011 when they were able to plan against a screaming tendency that 75% of little's receptions were within 10 yards of the LOS... would you concur? article (with video) breaking down probably his worst game of the season (six drops)...http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1226343-cleveland-browns-film-study-why-did-greg-little-drop-that-passof the six, two looked catchable, but one was thrown behind and another high... on another it looked like a DB might have started to tackle him early and gotten away with interference... i think on last he was led into a closing safety, but he still should have caught it... there were a few other that were just flat terrible, inexcusable drops...it is worth noting he had about half his drops in that game... that would have left about 6-8 in other 15 games, which would have been a more aceptable number... not sure if below link to PFF article is same one posted upthread... http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/03/02/fantasy-rookie-reflection-%E2%80%93-greg-little/it notes the drops, but also a few positives (one of highest broken tackle numbers in league at any position, RBs included?)... the conclusion starts like this..."Looking towards the future, it’s tough not to be optimistic about Greg Little."to more directly answer your quesions, i think there isn't one answer (as noted above), but it is more complex...1 - i think it has been pointed out that some WRs known for RAC skills, like TO, are more prone to drops because they are already planning what they are going to do with the ball after they catch it before properly securing the ball... hopefully that is partly correctable... roddy white i think led league in drops last year... if a WR is good enough (little certainly isn't yet), and is productive enough with his catches, a certain amount of drops can be forgiven...2 - while a subject of debate, reps he got at RB as prep and at NC were times he wasn't getting them at WR... the year off could have caused some rust... and the short off-season all could have contributed...3 - little is a very good athlete, and while it is great that he was working during suspension, it sounded like he may have overdid it in weight room and with MMA training, getting up to 230 lbs... he is back down to 220 lbs... flexibility, agility, body control are critically important for WR... that might enable him to catch balls that are behind, high, low, adjust mid-flight to errant throws...4 - related to first point, but reportedly coaching staff (who are in best position to know, see him in practice) think they are concentration drops and correctable... going back to the highlights, a high percentage of time defenders are closing quickly... some have concluded that he can't get separation... imo, mccoy's lack of arm strength and the seeming inability or unwillingness to diversify the passing attack and run the same short plays over and over and over were main culprits... even on some of the short passes, it seemed like the ball didn't get their quickly... knowing he was going to get blasted a fraction of a second after the catch could have contributed to concentration drops?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

benson, i don't want to come off as a little apologist... i can consider the possibility i'm wrong...

the yards from LOS reception frequency distribution logged above was for receptions... i didn't look at all his drops, and not sure that same distribution held (but based on some below evidence this may be the case)...

what prompted me to take the time on it was after watching the highlights i was left with the strong sense or impression that mccoy's lack of arm strength severely restricted his opportunities to make explosive plays after the catch, but wanted to make that more quantitative and rigorous...

it doesn't seem too controversial to suggest that it played to opposing defense's advantage in 2011 when they were able to plan against a screaming tendency that 75% of little's receptions were within 10 yards of the LOS... would you concur?

Tangent time: In theory, the shorter a pass the easier the completion. Arm Strength really only comes into play when trying to throw a Dig, deep out, throwing the ball on a line down the seam, and fitting it between defenders. Many people mistakenly talk about arm strength(not saying just you but many in this thread) as if it's the end all of being a QB in the NFL. Anticipation, reading defenses, looking off defenders, ball placement take a huge precedence over arm strength. Matt Hasselbeck, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Pennington, Matt Schuab all have had successful careers without having a big time arm...heck even Aaron Rodgers doesn't have great arm strength. I would say Rodgers has good arm strength, but he's elite in the before mentioned skills.

Now to my point. Does Colt McCoy possess a cannon? No, but he's a capable passer(not saying stud or even average). Does he possess the anticipation, reading defenses, looking off defenders, ball placement skills? We may never know with Brandon Weeden now set to take over. But I do know that catching 50.8% of targets isn't good for Greg Little. It looks even worse when 75% of his targets were within the distance of how far I toss a bowling ball in the air.

The first ten yards is the most difficult battle between a DB vs WR. Release is all in the first 5 yards= Footwork, hand placement, spacing, body positioning. The next 5 yards= getting back on your route, separation, hand fighting the DB, stemming, not tipping off your route, etc. Also learning how different DBs will play a WR can be learned through film study. I think that Greg Little has a lot to learn in becoming a WR. Can he? It's possible. But I don't think Colt McCoy should be getting all or even a majority of the blame like he's getting in this thread. If you're getting good releases and open...the QB will get you the ball. Only so many elite QB's in the NFL and even they don't make perfect decisions or place the ball right every time.

article (with video) breaking down probably his worst game of the season (six drops)...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1226343-cleveland-browns-film-study-why-did-greg-little-drop-that-pass

of the six, two looked catchable, but one was thrown behind and another high... on another it looked like a DB might have started to tackle him early and gotten away with interference... i think on last he was led into a closing safety, but he still should have caught it... there were a few other that were just flat terrible, inexcusable drops...

I'd argue that the high one was the only uncatchable ball. One was a bit behind and some were contested. However, Little ran poor routes...which is a big concern I have. He ran a 5 yard in route vs Clements that he looked to be jogging through...not going to work. Another he just shoves Clements in the back because he can't get separation and then drops it.

it is worth noting he had about half his drops in that game... that would have left about 6-8 in other 15 games, which would have been a more aceptable number...

not sure if below link to PFF article is same one posted upthread...

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/03/02/fantasy-rookie-reflection-%E2%80%93-greg-little/

it notes the drops, but also a few positives (one of highest broken tackle numbers in league at any position, RBs included?)... the conclusion starts like this...

"Looking towards the future, it’s tough not to be optimistic about Greg Little."

to more directly answer your quesions, i think there isn't one answer (as noted above), but it is more complex...

1 - i think it has been pointed out that some WRs known for RAC skills, like TO, are more prone to drops because they are already planning what they are going to do with the ball after they catch it before properly securing the ball... hopefully that is partly correctable... roddy white i think led league in drops last year... if a WR is good enough (little certainly isn't yet), and is productive enough with his catches, a certain amount of drops can be forgiven...I agree

2 - while a subject of debate, reps he got at RB as prep and at NC were times he wasn't getting them at WR... the year off could have caused some rust... and the short off-season all could have contributed...I don't disagree with, but not many players keep switching positions and then become a star in the NFL.

3 - little is a very good athlete, and while it is great that he was working during suspension, it sounded like he may have overdid it in weight room and with MMA training, getting up to 230 lbs... he is back down to 220 lbs... flexibility, agility, body control are critically important for WR... that might enable him to catch balls that are behind, high, low, adjust mid-flight to errant throws...

This will probably help him, he was too big...David Boston...and looked stiff.

4 - related to first point, but reportedly coaching staff (who are in best position to know, see him in practice) think they are concentration drops and correctable... going back to the highlights, a high percentage of time defenders are closing quickly... some have concluded that he can't get separation...I agree, see my point above imo, mccoy's lack of arm strength and the seeming inability or unwillingness to diversify the passing attack and run the same short plays over and over and over were main culprits...This really shouldn't matter, plays should be designed on top of them selves. For instance, if an X WR runs a Dig route...they should have another play that is a sail route. So every part of that route looks like another play until the end. My conclusion is that Little hasn't learned to run routes correctly. even on some of the short passes, it seemed like the ball didn't get their quickly... knowing he was going to get blasted a fraction of a second after the catch could have contributed to concentration drops?Part of the NFL...did you think Vernon Davis wanted to get blasted catching that slant vs New Orleans in the playoffs...he just did it.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Interesting Stat

Josh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TD

Greg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TD

Josh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

 

[MAC_32]

Interesting StatJosh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TDGreg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TDJosh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

You're really bringing college stats into this? C'mon.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Interesting StatJosh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TDGreg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TDJosh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

You're really bringing college stats into this? C'mon.

1) Why are you mad? You're a Browns fan and both are the team you like.2) You don't find it interesting?3) I just thought it was impressive considering the kid was 18 years old.

 

[MAC_32]

Interesting Stat

Josh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TD

Greg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TD

Josh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

You're really bringing college stats into this? C'mon.

1) Why are you mad? You're a Browns fan and both are the team you like.2) You don't find it interesting?

3) I just thought it was impressive considering the kid was 18 years old.

No, because very little can be derived from college stats. I would think someone who follows prospects like you do would know that. Unless you're just fishing. If so, well played.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Interesting Stat

Josh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TD

Greg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TD

Josh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

You're really bringing college stats into this? C'mon.

1) Why are you mad? You're a Browns fan and both are the team you like.2) You don't find it interesting?

3) I just thought it was impressive considering the kid was 18 years old.

No, because very little can be derived from college stats. I would think someone who follows prospects like you do would know that. Unless you're just fishing. If so, well played.

If I had one pattern in the SP, it's i'm very statistical. You think very little can be derived from college stats. I think they are a piece in the puzzle of figuring out a prospect.Lets compare Josh Gordon at 18 years old to other players from the Big 12:

Josh Gordon 42 714 7

Justin Blackmon 20 260 2

Crabtree - Redshirted

Kendall Wright 50 649 5

Dez Bryant 43 622 6

Maclin - Redshirted

Looks like he fits into good company.

 

[MAC_32]

There is no statistical correlation between stats at age 18 and NFL success. You could substitute just about any college stat and it still applies.

 

[daveR]

There is no statistical correlation between stats at age 18 and NFL success. You could substitute just about any college stat and it still applies.

Agreed. All it really means, in this case, is that his coach thought he was starter material on his team. Is he worth getting excited about? There really isn't any way of knowing just yet.

 

[JPeso]

Interesting Stat

Josh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TD

Greg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TD

Josh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

You're really bringing college stats into this? C'mon.

1) Why are you mad? You're a Browns fan and both are the team you like.2) You don't find it interesting?

3) I just thought it was impressive considering the kid was 18 years old.

No, because very little can be derived from college stats. I would think someone who follows prospects like you do would know that. Unless you're just fishing. If so, well played.

If I had one pattern in the SP, it's i'm very statistical. You think very little can be derived from college stats. I think they are a piece in the puzzle of figuring out a prospect.Lets compare Josh Gordon at 18 years old to other players from the Big 12:

Josh Gordon 42 714 7

Justin Blackmon 20 260 2

Crabtree - Redshirted

Kendall Wright 50 649 5

Dez Bryant 43 622 6

Maclin - Redshirted

Looks like he fits into good company.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Interesting Stat

Josh Gordon's freshman season= 42 receptions 714 yards 7 TD

Greg Little's junior season = 62 receptions 724 yards 5 TD

Josh Gordon had more TD's in that one season(being only 18 years old) than Greg Little caught his entire career at UNC.

You're really bringing college stats into this? C'mon.

1) Why are you mad? You're a Browns fan and both are the team you like.2) You don't find it interesting?

3) I just thought it was impressive considering the kid was 18 years old.

No, because very little can be derived from college stats. I would think someone who follows prospects like you do would know that. Unless you're just fishing. If so, well played.

If I had one pattern in the SP, it's i'm very statistical. You think very little can be derived from college stats. I think they are a piece in the puzzle of figuring out a prospect.Lets compare Josh Gordon at 18 years old to other players from the Big 12:

Josh Gordon 42 714 7

Justin Blackmon 20 260 2

Crabtree - Redshirted

Kendall Wright 50 649 5

Dez Bryant 43 622 6

Maclin - Redshirted

Looks like he fits into good company.

Scratch that after further review it was his sophomore season

 

[Biabreakable]

"downfield" distribution of little's rookie receptions...method - breaking down the distance from LOS to where he actually made the reception in five yard increments... at or behind LOS - 4 (6.5%)1-5 yards - 29 (47.5%)6-10 - 13 (21.3%) 11-15 - 7 (11.4%)16-20 - 5 (8.2%)21-25 - 1 (1.6%)26-30 - 1 (1.6%)31-35 - 0 (0%)36-40 - 0 (0%) 41-45 - 0 (0%)46-50 - 1 (1.6%)61 receptionsmore than half his receptions were within 5 yards of LOS (mccoy made chad pennington look like daryl "the mad bomber" lamonica)... 46/61 (75%) were inside 10 yards of LOS... just 12/61 (nearly 20%) were between 11-20 yards, and only 3/61 (5%) went for more than 20 yards...for whatever reasons, partly by design (? shurmur was STL OC in 2010 that produced a historically poor YPC average by danny amendola), mccoy having a weak arm, being under duress a lot, OL issues, lack of running game, other WR weapons, etc....be that as it may, CLEs profound inability to push the ball downfield led to some negative consequences for little, and represented something less than being ideally positioned for success in the passing game (this isn't even addressing the good points that he didn't have a lot of positional experience, sat out a year and had an abbreviated off-season)... it forced him to operate in a more compressed space of possibilities, allowing more defenders to converge around him more quickly... it also afforded DBs tasked with covering him the luxury of sitting on routes with virtual impunity...a more diversified offense and a stronger armed QB SHOULD position him for greater success going forward...as to how gordon could cut into his targets/receptions... as has been noted, we don't need to posit a static, zero sum game of possible pass plays from one season to the next... with better overall talent, for instance, more drives could be sustained, more overall plays, more red zone and scoring opportunities... in theory, he could get a smaller % of receptions to overall plays, but if it is a piece coming out of a bigger pie, the addition of gordon needn't drastically have a negative impact on his numbers... if at all?

Explain his low catch % Bob. If 75% of his receptions were within 10 yards...he should catch more than 51%.

first, as a matter of thread house cleaning, my response to JWB was harsh and sorry for that... i get that his opinion on the degree of little's inexperience (which is commonly held, for right or wrong) was subject to revision...we can agree to disagree about the question of positional experience or lack of... with how to interpret freshman year being biggest question in my mind... with 13 receptions and 60 rushes, and two listed starts as RB, unless he had 30 carries each in those two games, it looks like he was used in a running capacity as much or more than receiving, and not, therefore, like a conventional WR (which is what several posters who claimed to follow little closely suggested)... benson, i don't want to come off as a little apologist... i can consider the possibility i'm wrong... the yards from LOS reception frequency distribution logged above was for receptions... i didn't look at all his drops, and not sure that same distribution held (but based on some below evidence this may be the case)...what prompted me to take the time on it was after watching the highlights i was left with the strong sense or impression that mccoy's lack of arm strength severely restricted his opportunities to make explosive plays after the catch, but wanted to make that more quantitative and rigorous...it doesn't seem too controversial to suggest that it played to opposing defense's advantage in 2011 when they were able to plan against a screaming tendency that 75% of little's receptions were within 10 yards of the LOS... would you concur? article (with video) breaking down probably his worst game of the season (six drops)...http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1226343-cleveland-browns-film-study-why-did-greg-little-drop-that-passof the six, two looked catchable, but one was thrown behind and another high... on another it looked like a DB might have started to tackle him early and gotten away with interference... i think on last he was led into a closing safety, but he still should have caught it... there were a few other that were just flat terrible, inexcusable drops...it is worth noting he had about half his drops in that game... that would have left about 6-8 in other 15 games, which would have been a more aceptable number... not sure if below link to PFF article is same one posted upthread... http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/03/02/fantasy-rookie-reflection-%E2%80%93-greg-little/it notes the drops, but also a few positives (one of highest broken tackle numbers in league at any position, RBs included?)... the conclusion starts like this..."Looking towards the future, it’s tough not to be optimistic about Greg Little."to more directly answer your quesions, i think there isn't one answer (as noted above), but it is more complex...1 - i think it has been pointed out that some WRs known for RAC skills, like TO, are more prone to drops because they are already planning what they are going to do with the ball after they catch it before properly securing the ball... hopefully that is partly correctable... roddy white i think led league in drops last year... if a WR is good enough (little certainly isn't yet), and is productive enough with his catches, a certain amount of drops can be forgiven...2 - while a subject of debate, reps he got at RB as prep and at NC were times he wasn't getting them at WR... the year off could have caused some rust... and the short off-season all could have contributed...3 - little is a very good athlete, and while it is great that he was working during suspension, it sounded like he may have overdid it in weight room and with MMA training, getting up to 230 lbs... he is back down to 220 lbs... flexibility, agility, body control are critically important for WR... that might enable him to catch balls that are behind, high, low, adjust mid-flight to errant throws...4 - related to first point, but reportedly coaching staff (who are in best position to know, see him in practice) think they are concentration drops and correctable... going back to the highlights, a high percentage of time defenders are closing quickly... some have concluded that he can't get separation... imo, mccoy's lack of arm strength and the seeming inability or unwillingness to diversify the passing attack and run the same short plays over and over and over were main culprits... even on some of the short passes, it seemed like the ball didn't get their quickly... knowing he was going to get blasted a fraction of a second after the catch could have contributed to concentration drops?

Nice post Bob I appreciate it. What do your team projections for Cleveland look like right now?

 

[Bob Magaw]

thanx, biabreakable...

i'll answer your question in a different way, specific to little...

he had 61 receptions last season... that is less than four a game... to me, it would be a conservative projection (given potential development of a second year WR) to get to 72 receptions (4.5 per game)...

imo, weedon's superior arm should enable a better YPC average and scoring chances (as could a presumably improved running game)... for the record, in questioning mccoy's arm strength above (as others have), that doesn't entail an assumption that all successful QBs need rocket armed, WR finger breaking velocity of elway/favre... but it isn't like mccoy was spectacular in other possible compensating factors like accuracy and anticipation... weedon's superior arm could expand the field and put more pressure on defenses by being able to attack it in different ways, maybe exploit mismatches across a greater range of the field, both norizontally and vertically... i also think the ball will arrive faster and could creater more space to operate in after the cacth (and maybe he won't be surrounded by 3-4 defenders so often if not constantly throwing directly into the teeth of the defense)...

i went back to last years numbers and looked for a player in the range of 72-900-6... a player that looks similar is michael crabtree, with 874 yards, about 12 YPC average and 4 TDs... they are also similar in size... little 6'2" 220 lbs, crabtree 6'1" 215 lbs... crabtree finished WR33 in FBG scoring, a low end WR3... i think crabtree might have better short area quickness, little could be more effective in red zone with 40" VJ... last year was a career high in receptions and yards (though he played only 11 games as rookie), and he had 6 TDs in 2010...

i don't think this is little's ceiling (especially in dynasty), and he could have upside this year... there are legit concerns, and some may find even my more conservative estimate optimistic...

weedon is a rookie... point taken... i still like his ability to get the ball to little better than mccoy, and in better situations...

trent richardson will tilt offense in much more run heavy direction... i have already addressed this concern above... also, the ability to pass downfield could help richardson be more effective... i'm not certain the front office and coaching staff don't want to have some kind of balance... the more successful teams in recent years have a strong passing component...

josh morgan will quickly overtake little... but it has been pointed out that he also has attendant question marks, and is far from a sure thing... it is ironic that he has some of the same issues that little is being questioned for...

 

[identikit]

thanx, biabreakable...

i'll answer your question in a different way, specific to little...

he had 61 receptions last season... that is less than four a game... to me, it would be a conservative projection (given potential development of a second year WR) to get to 72 receptions (4.5 per game)...

imo, weedon's superior arm should enable a better YPC average and scoring chances (as could a presumably improved running game)... for the record, in questioning mccoy's arm strength above (as others have), that doesn't entail an assumption that all successful QBs need rocket armed, WR finger breaking velocity of elway/favre... but it isn't like mccoy was spectacular in other possible compensating factors like accuracy and anticipation... weedon's superior arm could expand the field and put more pressure on defenses by being able to attack it in different ways, maybe exploit mismatches across a greater range of the field, both norizontally and vertically... i also think the ball will arrive faster and could creater more space to operate in after the cacth (and maybe he won't be surrounded by 3-4 defenders so often if not constantly throwing directly into the teeth of the defense)...

i went back to last years numbers and looked for a player in the range of 72-900-6... a player that looks similar is michael crabtree, with 874 yards, about 12 YPC average and 4 TDs... they are also similar in size... little 6'2" 220 lbs, crabtree 6'1" 215 lbs... crabtree finished WR33 in FBG scoring, a low end WR3... i think crabtree might have better short area quickness, little could be more effective in red zone with 40" VJ... last year was a career high in receptions and yards (though he played only 11 games as rookie), and he had 6 TDs in 2010...

i don't think this is little's ceiling (especially in dynasty), and he could have upside this year... there are legit concerns, and some may find even my more conservative estimate optimistic...

weedon is a rookie... point taken... i still like his ability to get the ball to little better than mccoy, and in better situations...

trent richardson will tilt offense in much more run heavy direction... i have already addressed this concern above... also, the ability to pass downfield could help richardson be more effective... i'm not certain the front office and coaching staff don't want to have some kind of balance... the more successful teams in recent years have a strong passing component...

josh morgan will quickly overtake little... but it has been pointed out that he also has attendant question marks, and is far from a sure thing... it is ironic that he has some of the same issues that little is being questioned for...

Gordon.

 

[Biabreakable]

Bob as much as I enjoy the meandering, think aloud style of your posts, could you please answer the question?

A simple total number of pass attempts to rushing attempts would do.

BTW - I am a big fan of similarity scores ever since Doug Drinen convinced me of their validity. Interesting you found a compare between Little and Crabtree.

 

[Jail]

Bob as much as I enjoy the meandering, think aloud style of your posts, could you please answer the question?

ha. I had the same initial reaction, but I think his answer was in there. Maybe not the full offense you asked for, but I think this is his Gordon projection:

i'll answer your question in a different way, specific to little...i went back to last years numbers and looked for a player in the range of 72-900-6...

Of course, I could be wrong.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Bob as much as I enjoy the meandering, think aloud style of your posts, could you please answer the question? A simple total number of pass attempts to rushing attempts would do. BTW - I am a big fan of similarity scores ever since Doug Drinen convinced me of their validity. Interesting you found a compare between Little and Crabtree.

hey biabreakable,wasn't trying to be oblique... i don't do my projections in the way you are asking for.i've tried to furnish my rationale (and in some cases quantify things, for instance in the yardage frequency distribution breakdown) above thread and in the last response to you, sorry if that wasn't what you were looking for...i guess you could say my method is more scouting-based, but also informed by statistical resources (such as doug drinen's, noted above, and many other avail here at FBG)... i admire the discipline needed to do league-wide projections, and am thankful people with those skills are on the team (dodds, bloom, wood, norton, et al)...ultimately, of course, anybody's projections will ultimately reflect their underlying assumptions (some of which is presumably scouting based)... i've tried to make some of my assumptions and rationale explicit where i thought it was relevant...* BTW, since you mentioned crabtree, i'm not sure they are that alike as prospects, but initially was just looking for a player that had similar numbers last year to my expectations for little this year... after the fact, i did notice some similarities... like size, mentioned above... they lack breakaway speed... crabtree has more natural, better hands... i think you could make a case they might have had an opportunity to shine more in more competent passing attacks (possible cause for optimism going forward - i find weedon an upgrade over mccoy, so that could help little... smith may have turned the corner, the 49ers re-signed him, and he should enjoy some OC stability after a turnstile earlier in his career)... they were also position conversions (crabtree a star running QB as prep?)...interestingly (to me at least), afterwards i was prompted to check the FBG redraft rankings... they recently had little WR36, crabtree WR37...

 

[FDC]

there seemed to be some disagreement on whether he played more WR or RB his first few seasons at north carolina... my recollection was that due to a combination of there being a logjam at WR with the likes of hakeem nicks and brandon tate on the roster, and the coaching staff wanting to get little on the field, he was used at RB at times, which seems to jibe with below PFW scouting profile... http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/29/browns-no-3-pick-scouting-report-wr-greg-little-no

Just for reference, his highschool stats are below. ETA: First column is rushing stats, 2nd is receiving. His junior year of high school he was mostly a RB. Year Att Yds Avg TD No Yds Avg TD Int2006 (Sr.) 969 6.9 8 61 1,002 16.4 18 42005 - 1,166 - 26 23 475 20.6 4 4

 

[Bob Magaw]

thanx to identikit for gordon correction, and FDC for prep stats...

also, to respond to benson's last post (#204 in this thread)... i appreciate his quoting me in that post to make a detailed response... since i access these pages by phone a lot lately, i find it at times unwieldly to have whole pages filled with just a few requoted posts... since benson agreed with some points, i'll restrict myself to selectively addressing a few (if not all) of the points where differences may still remain...

to the thread/board, the intent here is not to rehash deeply entrenched, previously well established views, but to see if it is possible to shed new light on old ground...

among several points made in my post that prompted benson's response, a central point i was trying to establish was that little could be undervalued IF the way in which he was used last season was limiting (75% of time he caught ball within 5-10 yards of LOS)... with the underlying thought that if he were used in a less predictable way, that might reasonably suggest a more optimistic projection (to some degree, at least on that basis)...

the rejoinder was at least two fold... the self described tangent (the yardage from LOS frequency distribution data points even more strongly to his having bad hands), and the runs bad routes observation...

i agree with this in part, but would qualify it... i think we wouldn't get much disagreement that little's drops last year could cause some concern about his hands... there is far less of a consensus on to what extent his not being a full time WR as a prep and at NC may have contributed... this has led to big differences in the thread on whether this should be interpreted as his having upside or not... similarly, his lack of technical development and how realistic it is to think he might improve is very much tied up in how this controversial question is answered...

now to return to the point... did the limited way in which he was used make it more difficult to shine... to me this still remains an unaddressed and open question... a way to make this point would be a sort of thought experiment in which we forced calvin johnson to replicate a 75% ratio of 5-10 yard pass plays in DET... having better hands and being a better route runner, i would expect johnson to do better than little... but imo, it would greatly reduce johnson's chance of his numbers approximating what he had by NOT being used that way last year... this is at the root of what i was trying to get at in the previous post... if johnson was used as little was, when he could be used to such greater effect in other, less severely constrained ways, i would call that misguided/directed use INHERENTLY, INTRINSICALLY limiting, in that case... if disagreement remains on this point after this latest effort, i'll chalk it up to a failure to communicate on my part, and leave it at that...

BTW, i'm NOT saying players can't have success within similar constraints and limits (amendola had some success in this capacity in 2010 for STL)... or the related point, players like wes welker could no doubt do much better in this role... but welker has a fake-you-out-in-a-phone-booth skill set... little isn't that guy... at 6'2" and now 220 lbs with a 40" VJ, he has the potential to be a downfield mismatch against smaller CBs... i can't think of a good reason to not explore that potential? if nothing else, a more diverse passing attack incorporating more deep routes might get DBs on their heels more, create more cushion and allow little more space, freedom and therefor opportunity for success on those same SHORT routes, when they are called...

 

[rickyg]

Why does Gordon or little have to "take over" the other? Why can't they both have success a-la anquan boldin/Larry Fitzgerald (eventually)?

If weeden throws for 3000+ yards ad 20-25 Tds this year (a good but not scorching rookie year) I don't see why. Oth guys couldn't approach 1000 yds Rec. and 5-7 Tds each. Those are good wr3 stats. Makes either of them great draft values.

 

[identikit]

Why does Gordon or little have to "take over" the other? Why can't they both have success a-la anquan boldin/Larry Fitzgerald (eventually)?If weeden throws for 3000+ yards ad 20-25 Tds this year (a good but not scorching rookie year) I don't see why. Oth guys couldn't approach 1000 yds Rec. and 5-7 Tds each. Those are good wr3 stats. Makes either of them great draft values.

I think they're very different WRs and can complement each other.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

thanx to identikit for gordon correction, and FDC for prep stats...also, to respond to benson's last post (#204 in this thread)... i appreciate his quoting me in that post to make a detailed response... since i access these pages by phone a lot lately, i find it at times unwieldly to have whole pages filled with just a few requoted posts... since benson agreed with some points, i'll restrict myself to selectively addressing a few (if not all) of the points where differences may still remain...to the thread/board, the intent here is not to rehash deeply entrenched, previously well established views, but to see if it is possible to shed new light on old ground... among several points made in my post that prompted benson's response, a central point i was trying to establish was that little could be undervalued IF the way in which he was used last season was limiting (75% of time he caught ball within 5-10 yards of LOS)... with the underlying thought that if he were used in a less predictable way, that might reasonably suggest a more optimistic projection (to some degree, at least on that basis)...the rejoinder was at least two fold... the self described tangent (the yardage from LOS frequency distribution data points even more strongly to his having bad hands), and the runs bad routes observation...i agree with this in part, but would qualify it... i think we wouldn't get much disagreement that little's drops last year could cause some concern about his hands... there is far less of a consensus on to what extent his not being a full time WR as a prep and at NC may have contributed... this has led to big differences in the thread on whether this should be interpreted as his having upside or not... similarly, his lack of technical development and how realistic it is to think he might improve is very much tied up in how this controversial question is answered...now to return to the point... did the limited way in which he was used make it more difficult to shine... to me this still remains an unaddressed and open question... a way to make this point would be a sort of thought experiment in which we forced calvin johnson to replicate a 75% ratio of 5-10 yard pass plays in DET... having better hands and being a better route runner, i would expect johnson to do better than little... but imo, it would greatly reduce johnson's chance of his numbers approximating what he had by NOT being used that way last year... this is at the root of what i was trying to get at in the previous post... if johnson was used as little was, when he could be used to such greater effect in other, less severely constrained ways, i would call that misguided/directed use INHERENTLY, INTRINSICALLY limiting, in that case... if disagreement remains on this point after this latest effort, i'll chalk it up to a failure to communicate on my part, and leave it at that... BTW, i'm NOT saying players can't have success within similar constraints and limits (amendola had some success in this capacity in 2010 for STL)... or the related point, players like wes welker could no doubt do much better in this role... but welker has a fake-you-out-in-a-phone-booth skill set... little isn't that guy... at 6'2" and now 220 lbs with a 40" VJ, he has the potential to be a downfield mismatch against smaller CBs... i can't think of a good reason to not explore that potential? if nothing else, a more diverse passing attack incorporating more deep routes might get DBs on their heels more, create more cushion and allow little more space, freedom and therefor opportunity for success on those same SHORT routes, when they are called...

First off, I would like to thank Bob for his analysis and personal messages. He put in a lot of time/effort, plus it's definitely a different view and I appreciate those in the SP.Secondly, I would like to say that I was wrong in picking on Greg Little for his YPC. While we may not know if he can put up a big time stat in this category, I didn't know 75% of his targets were in this range. Quite unfair to expect Little to produce given that situation. This is the stuff I like in the SP, stats that reveal something new.Responding to the point Bob is making regarding the routes Little ran in 2011.1) While the WCO has many different versions, is this how the Browns offense operates? Meaning despite the QB ability or QB, perhaps Little will always run 75% of his targets <10 yards from LOS.2) Perhaps we will never see a change in his target range. Perhaps Browns brass considers Little a slot guy and that's where he could succeed. They will continue to pump him touches in this range.3) The worry about running those short routes is becoming predictable, I believe this is what Bob is alluding to in his post. In those instances a DB will sink his heels in and read the first 5 yards of the WR's route and make a break on it. However, i'm going to continue with the notion that it's also the WR's fault if it's predictable. The WR must run the routes correctly, by not tipping off which way he's going. He can also stem the DB on the top of the route to create separation. Plus Little is a bigger guy and can box out the smaller nickel DB's of the NFL. Little may learn all of this over time though.

 

[MAC_32]

1 - the Browns limited their offense because of Colt, they drafted Weeden because they want to go more vertical

2 - They see him as a starter outside and inside, the tight ends primarily work inside and this year it looks like Norwood will get most of the 3 WR slot snaps. When Little is inside it will be when Gordon and Benjamin are on the field and outside, maybe Massaquoi too but I'm denial about him having a meaningful role

3 - Feel free to judge him after a few games this season, but again you're jumping the gun on his route running given his green-ness at the position. He did not run consistent, good routes last year but expecting him to was unreasonable.

I'm glad Bob popped in here with those stats, it matches everything I saw, just didn't have the data nor did I want to take the effort to accumulate it.

 

[Tau837]

I would like to say that I was wrong in picking on Greg Little for his YPC. While we may not know if he can put up a big time stat in this category, I didn't know 75% of his targets were in this range. Quite unfair to expect Little to produce given that situation.

Here is PFF's target breakdown for Little last year:Behind line: 20-9 yards from LOS: 7310-19 yards from LOS: 2520+ yards from LOS: 13Note that this adds up to 113 total targets, which is different than the number reported by some other sources (e.g., FBG reports 120).Anyway, this shows 75/113 = 66% being within 9 yards of the LOS. That is still a high number, but not 75%.

 

[Bob Magaw]

thanx, JWB...

i tried to clarify this upthread, but the earlier breakdown was just for receptions... this seems to have subsequently been inadvertantly generalized in the thread to include incompletions (for whatever reason, drops, errant throws, good coverage, etc), too...

i think benson was responding to a post of mine (#188) in which i used the cutoff of 10 yards (thus 75% of CATCHES within 10 yd of LOS), whereas the PFF TARGET data uses a 9 yard cutoff... could be a case of putting too fine a point on things on my part, or possibly it is a meaningful distinction, in relation to these percentages...

while i used a five yard increment breakdown and PFF uses a 10 yard breakdown, a more important parsing difference that could yield different percentage data is how to treat a 10 yard pass (or target)...

in my breakdown, a 10 yd CATCH (or if i had done it that way, a target) fell into the short reception data, in PFFs, a 10 yd TARGET would fall into the intermediate 10-19 yard category... so, aside from the fact that my data was about receptions and PFFs about targets (and as long as we ((ie - the "thread")) are mindful of that distinction), depending on how many TARGETS that were exactly 10 yds, being put into different categories by our (mine and PFFs) respective slightly different cutoff/s might explain some of the percentage discrepancy...