Gronk vs Hernandez... how about both? (1 Viewer)

[ovenfry]

Lets say you had both Gronkowski and Hernandez on your team LAST year. Who would you have started each week? I started looking at the fantasy stats for both from last year and I found an interesting trend:

Assuming they're both healthy... whichever tight-end did well the previous week, start the other guy.

It actually worked out pretty well check this out:

' Gronk Hernandez WK FPT FPT FPT Who?1 6.1 4.5 6.1 Gronk2 1.4 10.1 10.1 Hernandez3 10.3 7.8 10.3 Gronk4 0.4 2.9 2.9 Hernandez6 2.4 7.9 2.4 Gronk - Ok that didnt work, but keep going7 7 5.4 7 Gronk8 0.5 3.3 3.3 Hernandez9 4.7 16.8 4.7 Gronk - Ouch, ok that one hurt10 25.2 0 25.2 Gronk11 2.5 6.8 6.8 Hernandez12 6.5 1.8 6.5 Gronk13 1.2 11.1 11.1 Hernandez14 10.3 1.9 10.3 Gronk15 2.5 16.7 16.7 Hernandez16 17.4 17.4 Gronk17 16.2 16.2 Gronk Total 114.6 97 15787% of the time, it worked every time.
Could drafting both and rotating their starts be a viable stategy this year? Would you have the stomach to do it?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I own both and am starting both this week. I may just do this all year depending on the results. If one or the other gets hurt, the other just got a huge bump. I think they both could end up being fringe top 10 TE's this year.

 

[Sam Quentin]

If you modify it to say that if neither does well, stay put, it works out

 

[Lascelle]

I would love to be in a 12+ team league with a WR/TE flex slot where I could draft both guys and play both each week. Sadly, I'm not in one. Own Hernandez in one league and Gronkowski in another so at least I'll do well somewhere.

 

[adrenaline]

According to your chart you would have been wrong 3 times for an 81.25% success rate. If you would have started Gronk the odd numbered weeks the 1st half of the season, the even numbered weeks the 2nd half of the season & started Hernandez the opposite games you would have been wrong twice for an 87.5% success rate.

 

[proninja]

What if it happens on a leap year?

 

[duaneok66]

are you kididng? this is a joke, right??

what's next - craps??

 

[mr roboto]

Did you check the stats vs the phases of the moon, the Chinese calendar, or Madonnas ovulation rhythm?

 

[jsp2014]

Lets say you had both Gronkowski and Hernandez on your team LAST year. Who would you have started each week? I started looking at the fantasy stats for both from last year and I found an interesting trend:Assuming they're both healthy... whichever tight-end did well the previous week, start the other guy. It actually worked out pretty well check this out:

'	Gronk	Hernandez		WK	FPT	FPT	FPT	Who?1	6.1	4.5	6.1	Gronk2	1.4	10.1	10.1	Hernandez3	10.3	7.8	10.3	Gronk4	0.4	2.9	2.9	Hernandez6	2.4	7.9	2.4	Gronk - Ok that didnt work, but keep going7	7	5.4	7	Gronk8	0.5	3.3	3.3	Hernandez9	4.7	16.8	4.7	Gronk - Ouch, ok that one hurt10	25.2	0	25.2	Gronk11	2.5	6.8	6.8	Hernandez12	6.5	1.8	6.5	Gronk13	1.2	11.1	11.1	Hernandez14	10.3	1.9	10.3	Gronk15	2.5	16.7	16.7	Hernandez16	17.4		17.4	Gronk17	16.2		16.2	Gronk				Total	114.6	97	157

87% of the time, it worked every time. Could drafting both and rotating their starts be a viable stategy this year? Would you have the stomach to do it?

Well, I love the idea of this thread as someone who owns each on multiple teams and both of them on one.Unfortunately, there is no basis to this. Streaks like this exist in the past and not the future. Gronk's production is going to be hard to project because it's so dependent upon TDs. It's similar to believing in the Madden curse. Looking back, there's a streak, but looking forward, there's no rational reason to think it will persist.I have no insight unfortunately, but I'd love to analyze the types of defenses each player succeeded against. My only hypothesis is that Gronk will be more successful against defenses that are weak against traditional TEs, whereas Hernandez will be better against defenses that are weak against WR2 types.

 

[duaneok66]

Lets say you had both Gronkowski and Hernandez on your team LAST year. Who would you have started each week? I started looking at the fantasy stats for both from last year and I found an interesting trend:Assuming they're both healthy... whichever tight-end did well the previous week, start the other guy. It actually worked out pretty well check this out:

'	Gronk	Hernandez		WK	FPT	FPT	FPT	Who?1	6.1	4.5	6.1	Gronk2	1.4	10.1	10.1	Hernandez3	10.3	7.8	10.3	Gronk4	0.4	2.9	2.9	Hernandez6	2.4	7.9	2.4	Gronk - Ok that didnt work, but keep going7	7	5.4	7	Gronk8	0.5	3.3	3.3	Hernandez9	4.7	16.8	4.7	Gronk - Ouch, ok that one hurt10	25.2	0	25.2	Gronk11	2.5	6.8	6.8	Hernandez12	6.5	1.8	6.5	Gronk13	1.2	11.1	11.1	Hernandez14	10.3	1.9	10.3	Gronk15	2.5	16.7	16.7	Hernandez16	17.4		17.4	Gronk17	16.2		16.2	Gronk				Total	114.6	97	157

87% of the time, it worked every time. Could drafting both and rotating their starts be a viable stategy this year? Would you have the stomach to do it?

Well, I love the idea of this thread as someone who owns each on multiple teams and both of them on one.I'm sorry though, this is monkey math. Streaks like this exist in the past and not the future. Gronk's production is going to be hard to project because it's so dependent upon TDs.I have no insight unfortunately, but I'd love to analyze the types of defenses each player succeeded against. My only hypothesis is that Gronk will be more successful against defenses that are weak against traditional TEs, whereas Hernandez will be better against defenses that are weak against WR2 types.

this is a good post - but how can you guess what Bill B.'s gameplan is from week to week? His gameplan determines the amount of snaps each guy gets on a week to week basis . . .better get Freamon from "The Wire" and and tap Bill's phones . . .

 

[jsp2014]

Lets say you had both Gronkowski and Hernandez on your team LAST year. Who would you have started each week? I started looking at the fantasy stats for both from last year and I found an interesting trend:Assuming they're both healthy... whichever tight-end did well the previous week, start the other guy. It actually worked out pretty well check this out:

'	Gronk	Hernandez		WK	FPT	FPT	FPT	Who?1	6.1	4.5	6.1	Gronk2	1.4	10.1	10.1	Hernandez3	10.3	7.8	10.3	Gronk4	0.4	2.9	2.9	Hernandez6	2.4	7.9	2.4	Gronk - Ok that didnt work, but keep going7	7	5.4	7	Gronk8	0.5	3.3	3.3	Hernandez9	4.7	16.8	4.7	Gronk - Ouch, ok that one hurt10	25.2	0	25.2	Gronk11	2.5	6.8	6.8	Hernandez12	6.5	1.8	6.5	Gronk13	1.2	11.1	11.1	Hernandez14	10.3	1.9	10.3	Gronk15	2.5	16.7	16.7	Hernandez16	17.4		17.4	Gronk17	16.2		16.2	Gronk				Total	114.6	97	157

87% of the time, it worked every time. Could drafting both and rotating their starts be a viable stategy this year? Would you have the stomach to do it?

Well, I love the idea of this thread as someone who owns each on multiple teams and both of them on one.I'm sorry though, this is monkey math. Streaks like this exist in the past and not the future. Gronk's production is going to be hard to project because it's so dependent upon TDs.I have no insight unfortunately, but I'd love to analyze the types of defenses each player succeeded against. My only hypothesis is that Gronk will be more successful against defenses that are weak against traditional TEs, whereas Hernandez will be better against defenses that are weak against WR2 types.

you caught me before I made my post friendlier!you're right though. trying to get into BB's head is futile. It's only possible if they're both used extensively each game. There were games last year when Hernandez barely sniffed the field. Trying to predict that is probably impossible.

 

[lazyike]

I did a study that concluded if I don't own either of these guys I don't have to wonder who to start. Problem is I do own Hernandez in one league.