Harvin's Value Without Moss (1 Viewer)

[Clifford]

The fact that he just had a 100-yard game probably makes him a decent sell-high. We all saw the Moss effect when he came to town: pulled defenders away from LOS opening up underneath and middle routes for Harvin, and Harvin excelled. When forced into an outside WR role he has not done well.

We also know the Vikings are completely coming apart and they are not making rational decisions (hopefully no example needed). So there is a chance they try to force-fit him into that role again.

Sell high or hold right now?

 

[JD8p]

If I could value for him right now...I would say so long.

 

[LittlePhatty]

If I could value for him right now...I would say so long.

lol, wut?

 

[packersfan]

 

[KentGraham10]

Those weeks with Moss catapulted him to the #8 spot in my league at WR. Now I am expecting him to plummet back down the rankings. Holding on though because Rice will be back soon (I hope...)

 

[Clifford]

K guys let's see if we can elevate the analysis here...

 

[KentGraham10]

I said I was hoping Rice would come back, that's really all the analysis there is. We've seen what he was with a star WR next to him and without one.

 

[Sammy Traveller]

bum ankle too.

 

[Clifford]

Well, true and not true. The Moss trade actually did two things to Harvin:

1. Kept coverage off the LOS and underneath

2. Moved him to the slot

Just because Moss is gone doesn't mean they can't keep him at his natural position and start someone else at the X or Y spot.

We do know that unless Rice is a very fast healer they won't have anyone who will do #1, but that doesn't mean they can't learn from their mistakes either.

Then again, this is Brad Childress we're talking about.

I see a sell-high and have offered him for Hillis.

ETA your post appeared after I posted that

 

[packersfan]

Here's what Harvin did pre-Moss:

Week 1: 1-12-0

Week 2: 5-32-0 (injured)

Week 3: 6-62-1

The good news is his targets were increasing but he was really struggling to work as an outside No. 1 WR. My belief is because he is not yet a polished route runner and he isn't adept at beating press coverage. I doubt those issues have changed since Week 3 so if he's placed back in the No. 1 role I would anticipate those problems resurfacing.

Now let's look at his upcoming schedule:

9 Nov 7 ARI

10 Nov 14 @ CHI

11 Nov 21 GNB

12 Nov 28 @ WAS

13 Dec 5 BUF

14 Dec 12 NYG

15 Dec 20 CHI

16 Dec 26 @ PHI

17 Jan 2 @ DET

The only matchup I would view as being difficult would be the Giants in Week 14. So on paper the rest of the way doesn't look terribly difficult for Harvin. And if the Vikings continue to get creative with ways to get him the ball that will enhance his potential as well. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings go with Berrian, Lewis or Camarillo on the outside and keep Harvin in the slot as often as possible to try and give him favorable matchups. But there's no denying the fact that Moss' presence created huge areas of open space in the secondary for Harvin to thrive. That is gone now and barring a miracle recovery from Sidney Rice it isn't likely to return the rest of this season.

With Moss, Harvin had put up WR1 numbers. Without him he was struggling to be a consistent WR3. I think you have to look at Weeks 2 and 3 and view those games as being his likely ceiling at the present time. And that's assuming his ankle injury isn't serious.

 

[JD8p]

If I could value for him right now...I would say so long.

lol, wut?

LOL...Let's try again...in English.

If I could get value for him right now...I would say so long.

 

[gradin123]

Doesn't help but let's not overreact.

Yes Harvin will see a lot more coverage but I think the Vikes will stick with Harvin in the slot because he obviously is better there. Also teams still have to gameplan around AP first and Sindey Rice may be coming back fairly soon.

Right now I'm more worried about his ankle than Moss' departure. I really don't know why they don't bring Javon Walker back. He had a good preseason with them and Favre wants him on the team. If they sign him then it would allow Harvin to stay in the slot.

 

[coyote5]

Doesn't help but let's not overreact. Yes Harvin will see a lot more coverage but I think the Vikes will stick with Harvin in the slot because he obviously is better there. Also teams still have to gameplan around AP first and Sindey Rice may be coming back fairly soon.Right now I'm more worried about his ankle than Moss' departure. I really don't know why they don't bring Javon Walker back. He had a good preseason with them and Favre wants him on the team. If they sign him then it would allow Harvin to stay in the slot.

Favre wanted Moss on the team too. How'd that work out? I'm guessing the Vikings front office no longer has any interest in satisfying Favre's personnel desires to the extent they conflict with the front office.

 

[travdogg]

I'll take the other side of this and say i think Harvin might be a buy-low. A lot of people may think he's barely worth having now that Moss is gone, citing those early season numbers. But I think that was more Harvin playing a role he wasn't accustomed to, and he was still suffering from migraines at that point.

I'm not saying his numbers won't go down with Moss, but to think his weekly ceiling is the first three weeks pretty crazy to me.

I think he'll be a top-20 WR without Moss, as long as he is relatively healthy, however his top-10 upside is looking less likely.

 

[gradin123]

Doesn't help but let's not overreact. Yes Harvin will see a lot more coverage but I think the Vikes will stick with Harvin in the slot because he obviously is better there. Also teams still have to gameplan around AP first and Sindey Rice may be coming back fairly soon.Right now I'm more worried about his ankle than Moss' departure. I really don't know why they don't bring Javon Walker back. He had a good preseason with them and Favre wants him on the team. If they sign him then it would allow Harvin to stay in the slot.

Favre wanted Moss on the team too. How'd that work out? I'm guessing the Vikings front office no longer has any interest in satisfying Favre's personnel desires to the extent they conflict with the front office.

I don't think he actually did. He was not lobbying for Moss this year that was in the past.Look Favre will likely be the QB next week. Favre and Walker have a good rapport. You know Walker would bust his ### off if given another chance in the NFL. Btw, I'd rather have Favre run my team than Childress

 

[Clifford]

I wouldn't pencil in GB as easy after what they did to the Jets.

 

[packersfan]

I wouldn't pencil in GB as easy after what they did to the Jets.

If the Jets don't drop several passes things look a lot different. The Packers' defense has been extremely shaky this season. I wouldn't view them as a difficult matchup. And Harvin (granted with Moss) tore Green Bay up pretty good in the first meeting.

 

[Jetdoc]

Has there been a Sidney Rice sighting anywhere?

 

[Clifford]

Activated off the PUP today. Looking at least possible for a week 11 or possibly even week 10 return.

BTW, offer of Harvin for Hillis was laughed at and rejected.

 

[Lobary]

Activated off the PUP today. Looking at least possible for a week 11 or possibly even week 10 return. BTW, offer of Harvin for Hillis was laughed at and rejected.

Why? I can understand rejecting the offer but it's hardly laughable.Yeah, I own both.

 

[UFO]

Here are some harsh realities

1) Harvin was better with Moss there and Moss is now gone. More coverage, playing out of position, less versatile role.

2) Rice is not going to be back in time this year if at all to make a difference this season. I mean I have not heard if he is even walking never mind football shape.

3) There is no way Favre lasts more than a few more games. Every game something else is breaking. The wheels are gonna completely fall off soon.

As a fellow Harvin owner and big fan (think he is one of the most exciting players in league) I would not want him as anything more than a #3WR and even then would prefer to have another comparable WR where I could play match-ups.

If Harvin is your #1 or #2 you need to make some moves.

 

[packersfan]

Here are some harsh realities1) Harvin was better with Moss there and Moss is now gone. More coverage, playing out of position, less versatile role.2) Rice is not going to be back in time this year if at all to make a difference this season. I mean I have not heard if he is even walking never mind football shape.3) There is no way Favre lasts more than a few more games. Every game something else is breaking. The wheels are gonna completely fall off soon.As a fellow Harvin owner and big fan (think he is one of the most exciting players in league) I would not want him as anything more than a #3WR and even then would prefer to have another comparable WR where I could play match-ups. If Harvin is your #1 or #2 you need to make some moves.

I agree for the reasons you posted and I posted yesterday. It's a kick in the nuts because Harvin was putting up WR1 production in many leagues since the Moss trade and now he reverts back to the guy who was tough to trust early in the season - and that's not even taking into account his ankle injury. I think his only hope (barring, as I said yesterday, a full recovery quickly by Rice) is for the Vikings to keep using him as often as possible in the slot and lining him up in the backfield and trying to get him the ball in those situations. As he showed in the first three games he has serious trouble right now operating as a go-to WR on the outside. But things look real bleak for Harvin. Take a look at how Welker has struggled without Moss. Harvin has more explosive ability than Welker but Brady obviously is much better than Favre so if Welker is struggling with Brady and without Moss it's difficult to envision a real positive scenario for Harvin without Moss and no Sidney Rice.

 

[footballnerd]

Harvin is going wide and Shiancoe will benefit again.

 

[Kuz]

Activated off the PUP today. Looking at least possible for a week 11 or possibly even week 10 return. BTW, offer of Harvin for Hillis was laughed at and rejected.

Why? I can understand rejecting the offer but it's hardly laughable.Yeah, I own both.

I think it would be a fair offer in Harvin didn't have a bum ankle. I wouldn't touch Harvin right now. Hurt QB/bad ankle & now Moss is gone. Not looking great for Percy lately.

 

[massraider]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?

The ankle is a bigger issue.

 

[packersfan]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?

Moss wasn't there but Rice was. That allowed Harvin to work in the slot where he is a matchup nightmare. Unless Rice gets healthy quickly or guys like Berrian, Camarillo or Lewis turns into someone defenses need to fear downfield, life is going to get very difficult for Harvin going forward.

 

[massraider]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?

Moss wasn't there but Rice was. That allowed Harvin to work in the slot where he is a matchup nightmare. Unless Rice gets healthy quickly or guys like Berrian, Camarillo or Lewis turns into someone defenses need to fear downfield, life is going to get very difficult for Harvin going forward.

I think life is going to be difficult for all Vikes players going forward, but has little to do with Moss. I don't by any means think that Harvin is a strong play the rest of the year. Not at all. I'm not excited about any Vikes the rest of the year. But what I do like about Harvin is I think he's a player that gets the ball in several different ways. He gets carries, screens, slants, etc. He's not some slot guy that only puts up numbers because there's a stud on the outside--and I really wonder if Rice drew the kind of coverage to make THAT massive a difference to a guy like Harvin. Harvin can get his with a terrible passing game, because his stuff isn't all 15 yards downfield. In fact, if Favre went out, and Tarvaris was in, I'd bump up Harvin, as I don't think the Vikes want Tarvaris Jackson chucking it downfield to Rice.

 

[cvnpoka]

im more concerned about the ankle than moss at this point.

 

[packersfan]

I like Harvin as a talent as well but there's no denying the significant difference in production Harvin has had with Moss and without him. And again, this isn't unique to Harvin. Wes Welker is a very good WR with an outstanding QB and his production has hit rock bottom without Moss. The one thing Moss continues to excel at is draw heavy attention from defenses. Pro Football Outsiders made a point on Sunday to note that the Patriots were using defenses on Moss other teams haven't done all season. And they know Moss better than anyone. It's clear teams still do not want Moss to operate in single coverages so when they put a safety over the top or even bracket him with three defensive backs (which the Patriots did at times), that is going to make life much easier for whoever is working from the slot and running intermediate routes. That's one of the main reasons why Harvin's production spiked significantly immediately when Moss joined him on the field. That's all been lost now and unless Rice returns quickly and is healthy or close to it then we may not see that again for Harvin the rest of this season.

 

[John 14:6]

I think life is going to be difficult for all Vikes players going forward, but has little to do with Moss. I don't by any means think that Harvin is a strong play the rest of the year. Not at all. I'm not excited about any Vikes the rest of the year.

I still like Peterson. IMO the run blocking has been improving.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?The ankle is a bigger issue.

Um, Sidney Rice was on the other side and Favre didnt play like a 41 year old.last year might as well have been 10 years ago. Things change quick in the NFL, try to keep up. This season without Moss, Harvin has been worthless

 

[massraider]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?The ankle is a bigger issue.

Um, Sidney Rice was on the other side and Favre didnt play like a 41 year old.last year might as well have been 10 years ago. Things change quick in the NFL, try to keep up. This season without Moss, Harvin has been worthless

I will try and keep up, thanks. Try not to be a ####. TIA.I think the sample size with and without Moss is the definition of small.

 

[Clifford]

Here are some harsh realities1) Harvin was better with Moss there and Moss is now gone. More coverage, playing out of position, less versatile role.Moss is not officially gone yet2) Rice is not going to be back in time this year if at all to make a difference this season. I mean I have not heard if he is even walking never mind football shape.He was jogging and catching passes last week. He was activated off the PUP today. Could be back on the field week 11.3) There is no way Favre lasts more than a few more games. Every game something else is breaking. The wheels are gonna completely fall off soon.Totally agreeAs a fellow Harvin owner and big fan (think he is one of the most exciting players in league) I would not want him as anything more than a #3WR and even then would prefer to have another comparable WR where I could play match-ups. If Harvin is your #1 or #2 you need to make some moves.

I'm really beginning to think Moss isn't going anywhere.

 

[PranksterJD]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?The ankle is a bigger issue.

Um, Sidney Rice was on the other side and Favre didnt play like a 41 year old.last year might as well have been 10 years ago. Things change quick in the NFL, try to keep up. This season without Moss, Harvin has been worthless

I will try and keep up, thanks. Try not to be a ####. TIA.I think the sample size with and without Moss is the definition of small.

It is small, certainly, but it can't be ignored that Harvin blew up when his role changed back to a #2. Its comparable to how Welker's stats have died since the long-ball threat left. Harvin's game is just better suited to shorter passes. Whether he can perform that role without a deep threat is another question, but if the Vikings try him on long routes like they did earlier in the year then the answer to that question is likely irrelevant.

 

[packersfan]

I'm really beginning to think Moss isn't going anywhere.

He's officially been waived.

 

[Clifford]

just saw that. oh well

 

[JD8p]

I am actually warming to Harvin post Moss.

He developed some chemistry with Favre, and I have to think that they are going to find a way to keep Harvin in the slot as much as possible. Targets will be plentiful...I think he will still be a solid WR2.

 

[John 14:6]

Did everyone miss it last year when Harvin was great and Moss wasn't there?

The ankle is a bigger issue.

Um, Sidney Rice was on the other side and Favre didnt play like a 41 year old.last year might as well have been 10 years ago.

Things change quick in the NFL, try to keep up. This season without Moss, Harvin has been worthless

I will try and keep up, thanks. Try not to be a ####. TIA.

The "Um" and "try to keep up" type of lines are all that's wrong with the Shark Pool...

 

[Bonka]

Minnesota would be dumb to not try keeping Harvin in the slot. But this is the same team who gave a 3rd round pick to rent Moss for a few weeks, so I'm not very hopeful.

 

[chinawildman]

Is it possible that maybe Favre just hasn't been all that sharp early on in the season? Both he and Harvin missed all of training camp and the chemistry clearly wasn't there. Not saying that Moss leaving isn't detrimental, but this needs to be taken into consideration as well.

Also Harvin's poorest receiving games are against 3 of the better pass Ds in yds given up oer game NO(3), DAL (10), MIA(12). His better games have come against statistically poorer pass Ds NYJ(18), DET(19), GB (17), NE (31). Again, it just so happens that 3 of the "weaker" D matchups were during moss's time in MIN.

That said his upcoming schedule isn't bad: ARI (21) CHI (15) GB (17) WAS (30), but down the stretch and into the playoffs it doesn't look good: BUF(6) NYG(2) CHI (15) PHI (11)

He may be a sell, but not right now. I don't see how anyone with a bum ankle is a sell high unless the buyer is just unaware.

EDITED to add that it's also possible Sidney Rice will be available for the last part of season, serving essentially as a decoy" a la Moss.

 

[urbanhack]

they are still going to find ways to get Harvin the ball.

I'm holding.

 

[jamil]

See: Welker, Wes

 

[chinawildman]

See: Welker, Wes

I don't get the welker analogy... I don't see any statistical relevance really pre/post Moss. Sure he caught a few Tds in weeks 1 and 2, but yardage/receptions wise the difference seems negligible.

 

[massraider]

Now imagine that Harvin had two good ankles.