sn0mm1s
Footballguy
Not sure - but I think Steven Jackson has a decent shot of at least matching the record.
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Have we begun to see the last of the RBs (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
id argue the opposite. almost all of the guys getting talked about have no shot. bettis gets in but proly shouldnt. tomlinson obv deserves and will. after that, i doubt anyone else mentioned makes it. maybe adp, and i think he deserves it, but its just really hard to make the hall of fame nowadays and peterson likely wont be able to accumulate the bulk stats required despite being the best at his position for a few years.
Sea Duck
Footballguy
Active players who have a shot at it:Steven Jackson (age 28; needs 3 more)Chris Johnson (age 26; needs 6 more)Ray Rice (age 25; needs 7 more)LeSean McCoy (age 23; needs 8 more)
Csonka4life
Footballguy
I think we have seen the last of fullbacks being elected to the hall(seniors candidates excluded), but tailbacks are too glamorous for them to be shut out. I just think the numbers are being adjusted to to reflect what 10K career yards are worth in an inflated offensive era.
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
Probably not for quite a while then. I don't think that CJ2K is going to accomplish it.
Moldy Potato
Footballguy
Did this surprise anyone else? For some reason it seems like he's been in the league for a lot longer than that.
Shutout
Footballguy
Agree. Just because they may be the rare workhorse backs in our recent memory, it doesn't make them HOF worthy. I would have to think that if SJAX is a serious candidate, then people should be asking to put in guys like Bettis and Eddie george and maybe even Corey Dillon, before him. And when I look at it like that, SJAX becomes a bit more doubtful.When you talk about HOF, you are talking about the best, not the consistently good, not the "notable because of this". You ahve to find the difference makers. Some of those guys were just flat out awesome over a career (Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith). I don't see that in any of these guys and, actually, I would think Terrell Davis was more significant, even though his career was cut short, than any of these guys.
Shutout
Footballguy
isn't that the truth. I guess all the people on the HOF wagon with Mark ingram last year found a shiny new toy to get on board with.
CalBear
Footballguy
A lot of people would say the same about Emmitt. I don't think Steven Jackson will make it just based on accumulated totals. He only has one exceptional season (2334 YFS), and one season in the top-3 in rushing or yards from scrimmage. No first-team All-Pros. But he certainly has the potential to have a couple more of those exceptional seasons. If he wins a rushing title, has another season in the top 3, and finishes in the top 5 in career rushing yardage, he'll make it. That would take another 5000 rushing yards, and if he accomplishes all that he'll deserve it.
Shutout
Footballguy
When I see postings like this, I think "There should be a rule that makes it mandatory that posters post their age and disclose how much of these players they actually watched" because you simply can't sum up a career like Curtis Martin's into 7-8 bullet statements. There is SO much more to it than that and I really get the idea that when someone says something like that it almost has to be because they didn't like the Jets or Patriots back then or that they never actually got to watch the player during his career and they only look at a number or "how many Super Bowls did he win?" Because, otherwise, I can't imagine a person saying something like this.Curtis Martin was a VERY impactful player in the league and was very important to his teams. Those teams heavily relied on him and his accomplishments as a RB deserve a lot of respect.
Its easy to say "he was lucky to be healthy" or he just "compiled" numbers, but you have to put yourself in the man's shoes to truly understand how DIFFICULT it is to be a running back in the NFL and to remain healthy, not to mention be steadily productive. So for those of us that watched him play, I think we remember well how much work he put in because it never looked easy.
Do you realize that he is 4th on the all-time rushing list? He is only eclipsed by emmitt, Walter, and Barry. That's it.
Do you realize he made the Pro-Bowl 5 times? In other words, in HALF of his career, he was seen by his peers, coaches, and fans as being one of the top 2-3 RBs in the league.
Do you realize that he missed 4 (FOUR) games in his entire career (did not include the final year..He was clearly hurt badly then). But for TEN YEARS, the man missed four games. That is super impressive in itself. Try finding a RB on your fantasy team that you can depend on like that.
For the record, I was never a big Curtis Martin fan but that doesn't make me unable to appreciate what he did and I think, JMO, that he deserves as mucha s any other RB candidate to be in the HOF.
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Shutout
Footballguy
If he gains five thousand more yards, then, yes, he has been steadily productive enough to warrant a look at his entire contribution. But you can't possibly compare that in a vaccuum to emmitt Smith. emmit Smith has impact to the NFL in terms of being a HUGE part of MULTIPLE Super Bowl wins, multiple, multiple, all-pro awards and pro-bowl appearances, etc. Its not really anywhere near a comparison you can make.
CalBear
Footballguy
The knock on Emmitt (relative to Payton/Sanders) is that he was just a decent back in a great situation. I don't think anyone thinks he shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame, but a lot of people think that if you'd put, say, Curtis Martin onto those Dallas teams he could have had a career similar to Emmitt's.'Shutout said:
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
People only say stuff like that when comparing him to Payton or Sanders (and it isn't taken very seriously as it is generally just anti-Cowboy/Smith fans). I can't recall a single person claiming that Emmitt isn't a HOFer. I have seen plenty of people claim that Martin and Bettis aren't HOFers.'CalBear said:
I think SJax falls into the same category as Martin. A consistently good player that was never really considered dominant. He has had one outstanding season - but other than that he hasn't been at the top of the RB list (he generally is talked up because he plays on a bad team).In the last 25 years you have a progression discussions like:Who is the best RB in the NFL Thomas or Sanders?Smith or Sanders?Davis or Sanders?Edge or Faulk?LT or Holmes or Alexander?LT or Peterson?Peterson or CJ?etc. etc.Guys like Martin and Bettis never creep into these sorts of discussions because they were good - but they weren't great. The HOF should be full of the great players - not the good players that played for a long time.
CalBear
Footballguy
As I noted, Jackson has not had the performance relative to his peers that Martin had (top-3 season rushing/YFS totals). He would need to have multiple seasons with that level of performance to earn consideration for the HOF.
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
This is possible - obviously those Dallas teams were loaded. However, Martin did play with several QBs that made probowls (Bledsoe and Testaverde) and are top 10 all time in yardage. Pennington wasn't a poor QB (led the league in a few categories). He had one of the greatest coaches for most of his career (Parcells). It isn't like Martin had the surrounding talent of Sanders, Payton, OJ etc. etc.This is where I look a little deeper into Martin's stats. As I mentioned before, his YPC vs all other non-QBs is below league average while he played. I have a hard time saying someone was a HOFer if, on an average carry, they were gaining less that league average. I don't put much stock into total rushing TDs because the majority of rushing TDs come from within 3 yards of the LOS and are heavily influenced by playcalling. I do put much more stock into rushing TDs greater than 10 yards because to me this illustrates how good of a RB you have when you actually get a hole. Martin, despite all his carries, is tied for 42nd all time with 16 TDs of 10 yards or more. Sanders, Smith, LT, and Brown are 1,2,3,4 on the list.
Shutout
Footballguy
Ohh yeah. I can see that. good point.
Shutout
Footballguy
I think you might be introducing a personal speed bias into the equation if you are using that to make your decision. I mean, yes, I guess that would indicate speed, but not necessarily an ability to hit a hole (or demonstrate elite vision or decision making). There would be Numerous factors to go into making that decision. You would have to consider the era they played in. Someone also might challenge you and say that the Dallas O-line of emmitt's time had more to do with those holes than his ability. You might have to think about THOSE team's individual philosophies (just as you mentioned majority of rushing TDs being heavily influenced by playcalling, it holds true the other way...perhaps the teams were heavy play-action teams or emphasized something that promoted feast or famine type plays).
But all in all, I don't know if I would say that long runs indicate a player being more worthy or a better player. Instead, I would just think it lends to a different style and sets of weaknesses or strengths.
While you and I may appreciate a homerun hitter like Sanders, my brother (who was an O-lineman in his football life) has a GREAT appreciation for the guys that are tough enough to get those tough yards and consistently find the goal line. He has reminded me many times that when you're in the trenches, trying to move a mass of humanity and get a yard at the goal line is absolutely harder than a typical play somewhere else on the field. So, in martin's case, I think it says a lot of him that he consistently was able to perform. Heck, Marcus Allen made a living at it in his latter career and was always highly praised and valued by his team for being able to get those tough short yards when it mattered. Those are the types of intangibles that I think you have to put into it along with the other things.
Speed is measureable. Heart is not. But they both are very important when you carry a football and try to prove you are willing to do the work.
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
It is only a part of the decision and while speed does help. Smith was never the fastest of RBs and even had 4 of those 10+ yard runs when he was with Arizona - well past his prime.
I completely disagree with this. Speed is just one factor. There are a number of guys on the list that are fast - but there are plenty that aren't known for their speed. In the top 20 on that list we have Smith, Ricky Williams, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Ottis Anderson and a several others that weren't considered blazing fast.
I don't disagree with your brother that 1 yard on the goal line is more difficult to get than 1 yard on your own 20. But it is still only 1 yard. There is a reason D's celebrate after a goal line stand (because is it extremely hard to prevent a team from gaining only 1 yard) and there is a reason that QBs have a lot more 1 yard TD runs than any other distance (you don't have to be all that good at running the ball to gain 1 yard). A QB rush, IIRC, is the highest percentage play from the 1 yard line - that isn't because they are good at carry the ball but that it isn't that difficult to gain just 1 yard.
Shutout
Footballguy
Four times in two years doesnt really say much, especially when if you look at ANY starting RB in the league, they almost ALL have at least one or two long TD runs a year (you won't find many starting RBS that, over the course of a year, have 8-9 yards as their longest TD of the year).And, again, you have to put it all into perspective of time and place for THAT player. that last year in Arizona, emmitt's longest TD of the year was 29 yards. It was against the Saints in a blowout and the defense had packed it in. I remember, because I WAS THERE. Again, very situational.
I completely disagree with this. Speed is just one factor. There are a number of guys on the list that are fast - but there are plenty that aren't known for their speed. In the top 20 on that list we have Smith, Ricky Williams, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Ottis Anderson and a several others that weren't considered blazing fast.I have no idea what you are diasgreeing with here. I said speed wasn't the tell-all factor and you seem to be echoing that (but had originally said you based a lot of your decision on ability to break long runs...which either means speed or gaping holes or terrible defenses (as I mentioned, its all dependent on many factors...not just a box that says a guy ran "X" amount of plays more than 10 yards).
I don't disagree with your brother that 1 yard on the goal line is more difficult to get than 1 yard on your own 20. But it is still only 1 yard. There is a reason D's celebrate after a goal line stand (because is it extremely hard to prevent a team from gaining only 1 yard) and there is a reason that QBs have a lot more 1 yard TD runs than any other distance (you don't have to be all that good at running the ball to gain 1 yard). A QB rush, IIRC, is the highest percentage play from the 1 yard line - that isn't because they are good at carry the ball but that it isn't that difficult to gain just 1 yard.
I really can't even begin to get on board with this and I don't mean to sound like I'm taking a shot or anything but when I read that, it sounds like its coming from someone who really didn't play much football or understand that part of the game. It is VERY hard to move a ball one yard, especially when the defense knows you are going to do it. And it is totally different between a QB lining up a play and sneaking a ball versus a play that is lined up and designed to be handed off to a RB in the backfield and then he make something happen. A big part of why that stat looks favorable is because when you are all packed in and trying to get that short distance, it is usually a matter of inches when a QB does it and it is incredibly difficult to not be allowed forward progress on an "inches to go" situation.
On a goal line, with a plane to break, you can look at it more confined and use reviewing cameras in college and the pros, and those plays ARE looked at very thoroughly. But on a 38 yard line when its 3rd and inches and a QB pops one up, those plays aren't looked at nearly as thoroughly. They should be, but they aren't. So the stats support it, but in reality, its a different world. I can't remember the last time I saw a game held up for a few minutes on a 3rd or 4th and inches play between the twenties, but it happens all the time trying to go into or out of the end zone because there is possible scoring involved.
I'm sure that whole last paragraph could be argued ten ways till Sunday if someone really wanted to just get off on a tangent, but the reality of it is (in trying to keep on point) is that when you look at a guy like Curtis Martin, you simply MUST give credit to his production, whether that is 1 yard or 30 yards. His body of work suggests that he belongs in the HOF and you just can't pick and choose certain attributes to try to discredit his case or beef up someone else's.
At the end of the day, you've got a guy who played in the Pro-Bowl in his sport half the years he was in the league,
missed four games in his career at one of the most injured positions in the game,
averaged over 1300 yards and 8 TDs a year.
Was a solid receiver and very good blocker,
fumbled far fewer times than Barry, Emmitt, and Walter.
I just don't know what else a team could ask for in a career from a RB or why people would want to dissect this into compartments. If Payton or Smith had never had a 1 yard TD in their entire careers, people wouldn't point out "he never was good at converting short yardage". They would still look at the body of work and say he is worthy of the HOF because he had a great career.
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
Actually, it does say quite a bit. Martin played 11 years and had a total of 16. Marcus Allen played 13 years and had a total of 13. Bettis 12 years and had 14. Are you really discrediting Emmitt's TD saying the D packed it in as if Allen, Martin, and Bettis never played in similar situation?
I am disagreeing with you that long TDs are just a measure of speed. You are implying that is all it measures but ignores such things like ability to hit a hole or elite vision or decision making. You are wrong about speed, gaping holes, or terrible defenses. The greats are able to dominate their opponents. They are able to make a great player miss or break a tackle that results in a long play. Once you are past the LOS by 4-5 yards the ability of the RB is more important than anything else.
It isn't very hard to move the ball one yard. This is why coaches go for it on 4th and 1 but rarely on anything longer. If it was so much harder we would expect less 1 yard rushing TDs and more 2,3,4 and 5 yard TDs but that isn't the case. You are completely wrong here. IIRC, 1st and goal from the 1 a team is expected to score a TD something like 85-90% of the time. Gaining that 1 yard almost always happens.You can rationalize it all you want but if the game is on the line and you are only going to get 1 more play to score a TD and win - where do you want to have the ball? You want it on your opponent's 1 because it is much easier to score from the 1 than anywhere else on the field.
Here is the breakdown of all the NFL rushing TDs
1 yard - 8079
2-5 yards - 7113
6-10 yards - 2897
11+ yards - 4844
The numbers don't support what you are saying. While I don't have the carry breakdown, I can promise you that there are more total carries between the 2-5, 6-10 and many, many more 11+ than there are from the 1. 35% of all rushing TDs are scored from the 1 and I would be surprised if more than 3% of the league's carries are from the 1. If it was truly so much harder to do you wouldn't expect to see such a dramatic drop off as the distance grew coupled with the increase in the number of carries.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
What about Priest Holmes next year?
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
Dominant for a time - but lacks the longevity. Pretty much the opposite of Martin. I don't think he ever gets in. LT is about the only RB that if the league ended today I think should get in that isn't already. Although, if Bettis gets in I would expect Barber and James to get in at some point.
cstu
Footballguy
Agreed. The big knock on SJax is his injuries. In 2006 he was the #3 fantasy back but with the injuries in 2007 and 2008 he ended up #14 and #13. Had he stayed healthy I think he puts up top 3 numbers those years but he didn't and it really hurts his case. The other knock is that he has only been in two playoff games and didn't perform well in either one. If the Rams at least make a SB with him and he has a few more good years to end with 16k+ yards from scrimmage then we can argue whether he deserves to be in the HOF.
kinda surprised ppl are expecting barber to make it. im not sure if he deserves it but i surely think he was a better player than almost everyone mentioned itt including curtis martin and jerome bettis. the more i think about it, when you consider his off the field problems post retirement, theres really no way he makes it.
moleculo
Footballguy
if you want to talk about backs with dominant, albeit brief, careers, you need to talk about Terrell Davis well before Priest Holmes.
moleculo
Footballguy
lol, I'm 36 years old and have been watching football closely since 1986. I will freely admit that I've never thought Martin was anything special...He was an above average back, but not great. That was my position in 1996, that's my position in 2012. He was the model of consistency, but no sizzle on that steak.Odd that you didn't answer any of my above questions. I was being serious about those... I will admit to having an East-Coast anti-bias - that is, I don't really pay close attention to teams in the north east, so I am curious about his his fan base feels about him, retrospectively. I can tell you that if you were to ask those 8 questions about Terrell Davis, the answer would be a resounding yes.'Shutout said:
I feel it also important that pro-bowl does not mean top 2 or 3 in the league, it means top 2 or three in the conference. All-Pro means top 2 or three, and he was 1st or 2nd team all-pro 3x.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, i thought aboput that as I was writing it but to be honest, I wasn't trying to be literal; I was just trying to point out that as the NFL picks their all-pros each years, Martin was seen as part of the top tier at his position for half his career.Like I mentioned somewhere, I was never a Martin fan either and didn't like the teams he played on. I just think when you look at him, as a whole, his biggest knock to some may be that he was boringly consistent, but when I look at his accomplishments and I recall his importance to the team at the time, I don't have a problem at all with his selection. I think sometimes models of consistency and dependability at the RB position carry a lot of weight because it is such a volitaile position trying to stay healhty and productive (and of course that's just my own opinion).
Tanner9919
Footballguy
LT2 is a lock, he is an all-time great.his numbers stack up with , or surpass, the greatest RB's of all time..put anyone's numbers up there, and LT2's are comparable.Peterson is on his way, as is Ray Rice..of course each has a long long way to go, but if Rice keeps grabbing boatloads of recs and rushing for 1200+ every year, he'll get there sooner or later.Cj1k has a long way to go but he is the focal point of that offense,will be for quite some time.Steven Jackson is inching ever closer to the HOF...
Shutout
Footballguy
I think we have hijacked this thread long enough. Its pretty obvious we see football from different perspectives.
Like I said a few times, we are talking about very situational things you simply can't put in a wrapped up box. Saying that it is easier to score from the one, categorically, is just wrong. The stats are based on situations (again, situational...based on opportunities). A large part of the reason there ARE so many opportunities from 1 yard out, and 2-5 is because inside the Red Zone, defenses have such smaller windows to defend in the passing game. That invites teams to try to run. Also, there are a lot of penalties in the End zone that places the ball on the one. I think a better statistic on this if you really wanted to explore it (and I'm not asking that you do) is to look at the entirety of plays and see how many attempts were made from each distance and how many of those were by pass versus by run, and how many of those were successful.
In the end, I simply know from experience that the proof is in the pudding. Go out and play the game or go watch a practice or just simply observe it on gamedays and you know, if given a chance, your sucess of running goal line drills is not spectacular when both teams are fairly even.
But anyways, enough of all this. Its Tomato to you; tomato to me. The bottom line is Curtis Martin is in the HOF, regardless of anyone's measure and I, whether I am in the majority or minority, thinks its a fine selection based on his body of work. Whatever nits you have to pick in statsworld to try to discredit him simply won't fly with me and apparently they don't fly with the guys who voted him in either.
moleculo
Footballguy
being boringly consistent isn't a knock - that's a fantastic attribute. However, if that's your only attribute, one is left wanting more. That's what this discussion is about, IMO. I want to see more from a HoF RB than boring consistency. I want to see all-time greatness, and IMO Curtis Martin falls short.
This is the hall of fame. It's not about who's the better player. Curtis has stats and records, the other two don't. SJax was the best RB in the league along with LT2 in the mid-late 2000s, but he played on the St Louis Rams, not the NY Jets (or Pittsburgh Steelers)
I remember him leading the league in rushing this one time like 5 years ago. I think Shaun Alexander got pulled in the final week when his team was trying to make the playoffs and lost the title by like 2 yards. I'd rather have Alexander that year or any other, including when Alexander was playing for Alabama.
Tau837
Footballguy
Is this a joke? None of Jones, Jackson, or Faulk have any shot at the HOF.
Tau837
Footballguy
Tiki has no chance.
Tau837
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
I disagree with Jones, I think he has a chance but I concede the other two.For my argument scroll up, just my opinion.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I think no chance is a tad bit strong. Tiki ranks 12th all time in yards from scrimmage. 9 guys ahead of him are already in the HOF. The other 2 are going in (LT and TO . . . unless there are people that think Owens is not going to make it). The other interesting guy on the HOF fence is 13th (Edgerrin James).
Tau837
Footballguy
You are isolating one stat and taking too much from it IMO. His rank in YFS will not offset all of this:1. He was 1st team All Pro once and was never 2nd team All Pro. He made just 3 Pro Bowls. He won no significant awards.2. He is 19th in career touches, yet had just 68 TDs, 94th all time.3. His postseason numbers are pedestrian: 120/475/1 rushing (3.96 ypc) and 26/196/0 receiving (7.54 ypr) in just 7 games.4. His reputation has been harmed by how his career ended and things he has done since then.And of course Owens is getting in... he is a lock. I agree James is more of an interesting case.
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Koya
Footballguy
The Giants have not forgotten him. How could you forget one of the worst teammates and turncoats in franchise history? His selfish antics eroded any good will his near HOF stats represented.If tiki did not undermine his team (I'm talking about when he was still on the team) and played two more solid years I think he'd have been hard to keep out. Thankfully he showed his true stripes before that could happen and as he left the team could come together, Eli matured and two SBs were won over the next half decade or so.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Thomas Jones has a chance of getting into the Hall of Fame? 
sn0mm1s
Footballguy
Well, I don't have access to carry data - but I wrote to a website that does have access to the data. They said that they will probably do so more research into it but that they only tallied up 2011 for me. Here are the results:From the 1RB: 211 attempts, 50% successQB: 40 attempts, 65% successFrom the 2RB: 96 attempts, 33% successQB: 14 attempts, 8 successes (but six were scrambles -- take outscrambles and you get 8 attempts, 2 successes)Pretty much follows exactly what I was saying about 1 yard TDs vs. anything else. If they end up doing more research for different distances across multiple years I will post that as well.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
ADP- Yes
MJD- No
SJax- No
Fred jackson- Yes
Edge- Yes
Kevin Faulk- No
LT- Yes
Thomas Jones- Yes
Foster- No
Tiki- No
MJD- No
SJax- No
Fred jackson- Yes
Edge- Yes
Kevin Faulk- No
LT- Yes
Thomas Jones- Yes
Foster- No
Tiki- No
Sea Duck
Footballguy
Foster is 4 years younger than Fred Jackson and already has twice as many TDs and almost as many rushing yards!!
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Thomas ####### Jones is not a HOF'er. Can we at least all agree on that, and restore some sanity to the Shark Pool? Jesus.
Tau837
Footballguy
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