Help me settle a debate which RB do you think is better going foward (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

guys,

I DON'T CARE if Felix gets touches, Barber will outscore Lynch IF HE GETS THE SAME NUMBER of touches as he did the last two years

do TDs not matter in y'alls leagues?

it'll take 2 years for Lynch to get the TDs that Barber gets in 1

Barber averages 14 (not starting!), Lynch averages 7 (full-time load)

Particularly for TDs, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. HTH.

Actually, past performance is the best reliable indictor of future performance.Since you seem to be in the mood to help, please break down your reliable indicators of future performance. This should be great.

HTH.

I'm always in the mood to help. On your bolded statement, do you have something that backs that up for TDs? Like some kind of analysis that shows that scoring a high number of TDs in the previous season(s) correlates to scoring a high number of TDs in future season(s)?

IMO there are three things that immediately come to mind as strong contributors to TD scoring: talent, number of opportunities, and quality of opportunities.

IMO Barber is not one of the most talented RBs in the league. I'd say his talent is above average, but that's it.

Last year, Barber was #21 in rushing attempts and tied for #18 in touches, and that is in 16 games; other players below him probably had more opportunities per game. I expect him to be in the same neighborhood on touches this year.

On the positive side, he plays in a great offense, which helps the quality of his touches to be good (e.g., not much stacking of the box).

To a degree, this Barber discussion reminds me of the MJD hype last offseason. As a rookie, MJD had 15 TDs and accumulated almost 1400 yards on 212 touches; amazing performance per touch. Many people were eager to project him to improve on that in his second season. Instead, he had only 9 TDs and less than 1200 yards on an almost identical number of touches, as his performance per touch declined... despite the fact that the passing offense improved, which arguably could have opened things up for him a bit.

On the MJD front, you have to take in consideration the presence of FTaylor...and his continuing to be healthy...which could be different this year with his injury history. I believe Taylor missed some time in 2006 that helped MJD be able to prove himself that season.

Understood. But MJD had 212 touches in 2006 and 207 touches in 2007. About as close as it gets, but a substantially weaker performance in 2007. And note I wasn't attempting to say anything about MJD for 2008, just showing one example that year to year TD performance is not easily predictable.

 

[switz]

Keep the votes coming guys. I have to say this is closer then I originally thought. I thought Lynch was more of a favorite, but I guess there are many high on Barber.

Wrong place to get an unbiased view of Barber.

And you're the right place to get an unbiased view of Barber, Mr. "I'm Felix Jones #1 fan"?

Don't know what that has to do with anything, I never claimed I was ... just that this forum isn't.

 

[switz]

My example was to show what can happen to a player when a team has the time to focus on them as the featured back. Won't happen all the time, but being the starter doesn't always mean it's better.

Like when the Giants decided to key in on him during the second half of the playoff game, and he got what, 28 years on 11 carries or so and zero TDs?

 

[Jack Burton]

My example was to show what can happen to a player when a team has the time to focus on them as the featured back. Won't happen all the time, but being the starter doesn't always mean it's better.

Like when the Giants decided to key in on him during the second half of the playoff game, and he got what, 28 years on 11 carries or so and zero TDs?

Bad example.The Giants were shutting down everyone and everything. Even the pats O looked pedestrian against the Giants front.

 

[trader jake]

- Marion Barber would be my selection in a redraft. He is just a safer bet to produce due to his offense, goal-line ability, and longer track record in the NFL. He was great last year but I doubt he'll ever be a top 5 fantasy RB.

- Marshawn Lynch would be my play long-term. I suspect he'll get enough touches to be an elite fantasy RB. Whether his health and the Bills offense makes that possible is my question but at least he'll have the opportunity to be that #1 back we're all looking for.

One thing that struck me as a bit odd in this thread - almost no mention of Marshawn's off the field conduct. In today's NFL that should be a real concern. I read some questions about his character when he came out of Cal and he just had the hit-and-run incident this offseason. On the field MBIII seems to be the "safer" choice and I could also understand an argument that he's a safer bet off the field as well.

 

[The Keyboard of Reason]

Lynch.

Label Felix as you may...change-of-pace RB...Reggie Bush-like role...etc...etc. The guy was the 22nd player drafted and he will undoubtedly see the field.

There have been 32 RB's drafted in the 1st-round from '97-'07. Exclusive of injuries (ie. Chris Perry, '04), how many of these 32 RB's did not receive at least 150 touches (carries & catches) in at least one of their first two seasons? Answer: Only one --- Trung Canidate, '00. (However, Trung actually received over 150 touches in Year 4 of his short career).

Felix may be great or Felix may bust. Only time will tell. However, history shows he will be given an opportunity.