Help me to understand holdouts & draft stock (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I considered the Elliott topic for this question, but it’s more that he’s the current example. 

I keep reading experts rankings, and they all seem to say about Elliott, “if not for the holdout, I’d take him 1.01”

so instead they rank him 1.04



i just saw this again tonight. It seems to happen every year with holdout players & it’s always “1.xx but would be #1 overall without the contract dispute/holdout/etc” 

so if, for example, EZE holds out & misses 2-3 games, the zeroes he scores for your magical football team are only worth....3 first round draft spots of value?  

does that add up value-wise? 

Why not just rank him 1.01 & mention the holdout if that’s the case? 

 

[Joe Summer]

It's a risk/reward thing. Elliott may not be worth the risk of 1.01, because you can get similar production from Barkley or Kamara.

But at a certain point in the draft, Elliott becomes worth the risk.

It's kind of like having a knucklehead player on your "Do Not Draft" list. You'd never draft the guy in the first 10 rounds, but if you find him available in the 17th round of course you're going to take a flyer.

 

[kutta]

It's a risk/reward thing. Elliott may not be worth the risk of 1.01, because you can get similar production from Barkley or Kamara.

But at a certain point in the draft, Elliott becomes worth the risk.

It's kind of like having a knucklehead player on your "Do Not Draft" list. You'd never draft the guy in the first 10 rounds, but if you find him available in the 17th round of course you're going to take a flyer.

Agreed. They are essentially saying they rank him above the other top RB’s, but the holdout adds enough risk to put him at the bottom of that pile. 

I agree with that too. I took him at 1.04 in a couple drafts, so I value him over everyone but the top 3. I would have taken any of the top 3 over him though. But without the holdout, I rank him over CMC and Kamara.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's a risk/reward thing. Elliott may not be worth the risk of 1.01, because you can get similar production from Barkley or Kamara.

But at a certain point in the draft, Elliott becomes worth the risk.

It's kind of like having a knucklehead player on your "Do Not Draft" list. You'd never draft the guy in the first 10 rounds, but if you find him available in the 17th round of course you're going to take a flyer.

Right - I totally get that.

but 3 picks later? 

Or in the case of Kamara, 1 pick later. 

Risk pricing makes perfect sense, but such a tiny downgrade seems....kinda silly, no? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But without the holdout, I rank him over CMC and Kamara.

Thank you for the real-world example. That’s the part that I’m a little puzzled by.

in considering that exact scenario, picking at 2 or 2, considering CMC or Kamara, if I have Elliott projected to be better & ranked higher without the threat of a holdout, then why not just take him over those two? 

I understand there’s no risk of holdout, but at 4 I have to believe you’re assuming there won’t be one, right? If you do expect a holdout, don’t you drop him further than 1.04 & take BPA? 

So in that light, why downgrade him at all? If you 1. expect him to play & 2. have him ranked higher than CMC or Kamara why not take him at 2 or 3? 

 

[kutta]

Thank you for the real-world example. That’s the part that I’m a little puzzled by.

in considering that exact scenario, picking at 2 or 2, considering CMC or Kamara, if I have Elliott projected to be better & ranked higher without the threat of a holdout, then why not just take him over those two? 

I understand there’s no risk of holdout, but at 4 I have to believe you’re assuming there won’t be one, right? If you do expect a holdout, don’t you drop him further than 1.04 & take BPA? 

So in that light, why downgrade him at all? If you 1. expect him to play & 2. have him ranked higher than CMC or Kamara why not take him at 2 or 3? 

The difference between all four of the top guys is marginal to me. We really don’t know who will be better - it’s really close. My guess is Zeke will be better than CMC and Kamara. But it’s razor close. And it’s a guess.

The chance of a holdout is very small to me too. But it’s there. And it’s just enough to push me into taking the safer guys if I have the choice. But not enough for me to pass on Zeke at 1.04.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The difference between all four of the top guys is marginal to me. We really don’t know who will be better - it’s really close. My guess is Zeke will be better than CMC and Kamara. But it’s razor close. And it’s a guess.

The chance of a holdout is very small to me too. But it’s there. And it’s just enough to push me into taking the safer guys if I have the choice. But not enough for me to pass on Zeke at 1.04.

Still not getting why you’d drop him at all then. 

1. You don’t expect him to miss time (as factored into you spending a top 4 pick on him

and

2. Bold above - you rank/project him higher than the players you’d take at 3/4

No disrespect, but it almost feels like a gut  decision rather than a logical one. Not just you, but all the experts I keep seeing that “i’d take him 1st overall if not for the holdout” statement from. 

I get that the points differential you project is small, but Zeke is still projected higher than anyone but Barkley, and according to most experts he’s projected higher than Barkley too (better team, better OL) 

So is the 3 spot drop more to say, “whew, I really dodged a bullet” if he holds out, or to  mentally justify passing on a higher ranked player if he doesn’t? “Sure, I missed Zeke’s 2k/20 TD season, but man he was risky with the possibility he was gonna miss games!”

Because logically it doesn’t feel like enough of a downgrade. 

To downgrade the 1.01 player on the board I’d expect people to say either

1. they don’t expect him to be there week 1

or 

2. They have him ranked/projected below Kamara/CMC

In the latter case, that makes sense. Take BPA. 

But in the case of the former, do you spend a top 4 pick on a player you believe is going to miss 1-3 games? 

IIRC, Bell’s 3-game suspension dropped him out of the 1st round in most leagues. Isn’t that analogous to EZE holding out?  Yet the price drop doesn’t seem to reflect that. 

So yeah....still confused. 

I keep thinking back to when he was supposed to be suspended & fell to 1.08 in both my leagues. The 1.08 team was laughing all the way to the bank when he didn’t get suspended.

 

[Tool]

Still not getting why you’d drop him at all then. 

1. You don’t expect him to miss time (as factored into you spending a top 4 pick on him

and

2. Bold above - you rank/project him higher than the players you’d take at 3/4

No disrespect, but it almost feels like a gut  decision rather than a logical one. Not just you, but all the experts I keep seeing that “i’d take him 1st overall if not for the holdout” statement from. 

I get that the points differential you project is small, but Zeke is still projected higher than anyone but Barkley, and according to most experts he’s projected higher than Barkley too (better team, better OL) 

So is the 3 spot drop more to say, “whew, I really dodged a bullet” if he holds out, or to  mentally justify passing on a higher ranked player if he doesn’t? “Sure, I missed Zeke’s 2k/20 TD season, but man he was risky with the possibility he was gonna miss games!”

Because logically it doesn’t feel like enough of a downgrade. 

To downgrade the 1.01 player on the board I’d expect people to say either

1. they don’t expect him to be there week 1

or 

2. They have him ranked/projected below Kamara/CMC

In the latter case, that makes sense. Take BPA. 

But in the case of the former, do you spend a top 4 pick on a player you believe is going to miss 1-3 games? 

IIRC, Bell’s 3-game suspension dropped him out of the 1st round in most leagues. Isn’t that analogous to EZE holding out?  Yet the price drop doesn’t seem to reflect that. 

So yeah....still confused. 

I keep thinking back to when he was supposed to be suspended & fell to 1.08 in both my leagues. The 1.08 team was laughing all the way to the bank when he didn’t get suspended.

This is timely because i'm going to be in a position to draft Zeke. He thinks Zeke won't holdout as do I but we can't know for sure. Let's just say the chances are 25% he misses a few games and maybe 5% he misses the entire season. Maybe your odds are different, but the expected value of outcomes is now lower just enough to bump him behind guys you previously had ranked him above.

As a side note I was listening to a mock draft this morning among some reasonably respected fantasy analysts and they had gone through 8 picks and Zeke hadn't been drafted. I had to shut it off so don't know what pick he went.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As a side note I was listening to a mock draft this morning among some reasonably respected fantasy analysts and they had gone through 8 picks and Zeke hadn't been drafted. I had to shut it off so don't know what pick he went.

That’s kind of an unsettling side note (I’m drafting today, in a few hours)

which experts, do you recall? 

That it was a mock makes it a little less scary - when money’s on the line it’s harder to pass up a potential league-winner like that. 

Still....unsettling. 

Also, to the main topic, I totally understand the % chance he misses time, but still don’t see a 3 slot downgrade as significant enough of an adjustment. 

Plus I think you’d need percentages for number of games.

1 in 4 chance he misses a game.

maybe a 15% chance he misses 2?

10% he misses 3?

5% he misses half the season? 

What confidence are you assigning those risk factor %s? 

95% confident he misses a single game? Or 95% confident he doesn’t miss any?

Dropping him just 3 slots seems insignificant value-wise, while there are massive swings of value for each of those outcomes. 

As an aside, by starting this convo, I’m practically guaranteeing I draw the 4-spot, or I get 5 & Zeke will be sitting there.  

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I don’t understand any of it either

I have my first draft tomorrow night and have zero idea where I’m comfortable taking Zeke or Gordon .

no clue

 

[Tool]

That’s kind of an unsettling side note (I’m drafting today, in a few hours)

which experts, do you recall? 

That it was a mock makes it a little less scary - when money’s on the line it’s harder to pass up a potential league-winner like that. 

Still....unsettling. 

Also, to the main topic, I totally understand the % chance he misses time, but still don’t see a 3 slot downgrade as significant enough of an adjustment. 

Plus I think you’d need percentages for number of games.

1 in 4 chance he misses a game.

maybe a 15% chance he misses 2?

10% he misses 3?

5% he misses half the season? 

What confidence are you assigning those risk factor %s? 

95% confident he misses a single game? Or 95% confident he doesn’t miss any?

Dropping him just 3 slots seems insignificant value-wise, while there are massive swings of value for each of those outcomes. 

As an aside, by starting this convo, I’m practically guaranteeing I draw the 4-spot, or I get 5 & Zeke will be sitting there.  

i was sort of half listening in my car. Evan Silva was involved with some other folks.

I have pick 4. I would take the other 3 guys before him for sure because they don't come with that risk. I'm leaning toward taking him at 4 but not certain and am nervous about it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t understand any of it either

I have my first draft tomorrow night and have zero idea where I’m comfortable taking Zeke or Gordon .

no clue

It’s a dilemma for sure. 

I kinda think it’s all or nothing. Either you take him anywhere in the top 4 and feel good or terrible about it;  you take him anywhere in the 1st round and feel good or terrible about it; or you avoid him altogether and get mad at yourself later for taking [Player] when you coulda had Zeke at [position later than 1.01] or you avoid him altogether & be happy because he held out for several games & weren’t you smart for passing on him. 

1.04 seems a little like a cop-out ranking by experts - like people who say “I wouldn’t take Mixon until the mid-3rd” when what they’re saying is “I wouldn’t take Mixon” because he won’t be there in the 3rd. 

the mental gymnastics involved in dropping him just 3 slots seems illogical because the downgrade doesn’t truly reflect the risk folks are suggesting. 

 

[Cowboysfan8]

It’s a dilemma for sure. 

I kinda think it’s all or nothing. Either you take him anywhere in the top 4 and feel good or terrible about it;  you take him anywhere in the 1st round and feel good or terrible about it; or you avoid him altogether and get mad at yourself later for taking [Player] when you coulda had Zeke at [position later than 1.01] or you avoid him altogether & be happy because he held out for several games & weren’t you smart for passing on him. 

1.04 seems a little like a cop-out ranking by experts - like people who say “I wouldn’t take Mixon until the mid-3rd” when what they’re saying is “I wouldn’t take Mixon” because he won’t be there in the 3rd. 

the mental gymnastics involved in dropping him just 3 slots seems illogical because the downgrade doesn’t truly reflect the risk folks are suggesting. 

Yeah

Tomorrow is lowest stakes more for fun league (none of mine are high stakes) and I don’t find out my draft spot til right before the draft. I might gamble and take Zeke in the first I’m I’m 4-12

Really hoping this gets resolved before my other drafts next weekend

 

[kittenmittens]

I'm taking Zeke and Gordon in the 2nd and 3rd if I can get them there. 

It's so worth the risk because you're trying to win it all, not just finish in the top half of the league. 

 

[Joe Summer]

Hot Sauce Guy said:

in considering that exact scenario, picking at 2 or 2, considering CMC or Kamara, if I have Elliott projected to be better & ranked higher without the threat of a holdout, then why not just take him over those two?

If you've got Elliott projected to have significantly better stats than CMC/Kamara/Barkley, then go ahead and draft him at 1.01.

But Zeke Elliott is not Marshall Faulk or Priest Holmes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you've got Elliott projected to have significantly better stats than CMC/Kamara/Barkley, then go ahead and draft him at 1.01.

But Zeke Elliott is not Marshall Faulk or Priest Holmes.

No, arguably not. Nor is he Tomlinson. 

But he’s durable, has a feature role, gets GL carries and has a solid OL. 

Kamara’s offense compares but he’ll lose touches to Murray.

CMC plays on a seemingly less productive offense. 

Barkley has a weaker OL. 

A case can easily be made that Zeke is the best of the bunch, and I think the experts are all saying that with that “were it not for the holdout possibility” caveat. 

So I concede that point entirely. My question isn’t “should I take EZE?”

I'm hoping someone else makes that decision for me by taking him. 

My question is about only dropping him 3 draft slots for what seems like a huge range of risks, including missing up to several games. 

Why wouldn’t he be dropping to the 2nd as Bell did with his 3-game suspension? At the time Bell was arguably a higher ceiling RB. I recall people saying he’d be 1.01 if not for the suspension. 

It just seems like the downgrade is insignificant statistically for the risk one assumes in drafting EZE (or any possible holdout)

 

[habsfan]

Not a logical answer but I start to think about points versus PPG. If Zeke misses a few games he'll likely finish below those names drafted ahead of him. When he's back, all will be forgiven - real and fantasy. If I can get through his absence I want him over the guys in the next tier.

 

[kutta]

Still not getting why you’d drop him at all then. 

1. You don’t expect him to miss time (as factored into you spending a top 4 pick on him

and

2. Bold above - you rank/project him higher than the players you’d take at 3/4

No disrespect, but it almost feels like a gut  decision rather than a logical one. Not just you, but all the experts I keep seeing that “i’d take him 1st overall if not for the holdout” statement from. 

I get that the points differential you project is small, but Zeke is still projected higher than anyone but Barkley, and according to most experts he’s projected higher than Barkley too (better team, better OL) 

So is the 3 spot drop more to say, “whew, I really dodged a bullet” if he holds out, or to  mentally justify passing on a higher ranked player if he doesn’t? “Sure, I missed Zeke’s 2k/20 TD season, but man he was risky with the possibility he was gonna miss games!”

Because logically it doesn’t feel like enough of a downgrade. 

To downgrade the 1.01 player on the board I’d expect people to say either

1. they don’t expect him to be there week 1

or 

2. They have him ranked/projected below Kamara/CMC

In the latter case, that makes sense. Take BPA. 

But in the case of the former, do you spend a top 4 pick on a player you believe is going to miss 1-3 games? 

IIRC, Bell’s 3-game suspension dropped him out of the 1st round in most leagues. Isn’t that analogous to EZE holding out?  Yet the price drop doesn’t seem to reflect that. 

So yeah....still confused. 

I keep thinking back to when he was supposed to be suspended & fell to 1.08 in both my leagues. The 1.08 team was laughing all the way to the bank when he didn’t get suspended.

I think Zeke is far above anyone available at 1.05.

Though I have Zeke ranked higher than Kamara and CMC, the difference is so small that it is almost insignificant. 

I don’t think he will miss any time, but grant that there is a small chance he will.  I also would take Pollard before his ADP as a backup plan just in case.

All those thing considered puts Zeke at 1.04 for me. I don’t think that’s illogical.

 

[Joe Summer]

Hot Sauce Guy said:

But he’s durable, has a feature role, gets GL carries and has a solid OL.

Kamara’s offense compares but he’ll lose touches to Murray.

CMC plays on a seemingly less productive offense.

Barkley has a weaker OL.

All those things were true last year, and yet those other guys put up stats better than Elliott.

So before we can even address the logic of "Why should he only drop 3 spots for holding out", we first need to address the flawed logic of "Elliott should be 1.01 even though conditions are similar to when he was RB8."

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think Zeke is far above anyone available at 1.05.

Though I have Zeke ranked higher than Kamara and CMC, the difference is so small that it is almost insignificant. 

That’s fair. 

I don’t think he will miss any time, but grant that there is a small chance he will.  I also would take Pollard before his ADP as a backup plan just in case.

All those thing considered puts Zeke at 1.04 for me. I don’t think that’s illogical.

Because of 1 preseason game performance against 2nd stringers? 



Kamara has Murray who’s guaranteed to be in some sort of time share. That doesn’t drop him significantly below EZE? 

(Note - I don’t think it does, but it’s equivalent to your Pollard concern) 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

All those things were true last year, and yet those other guys put up stats better than Elliott.

So before we can even address the logic of "Why should he only drop 3 spots for holding out", we first need to address the flawed logic of "Elliott should be 1.01 even though conditions are similar to when he was RB8."

Ah - a fair point.

Like I said, I’m referring to the blurb I keep seeing from experts. I’m sure you’ve seen it too. 

So clearly they put him at 1.01, IF he wasn’t a holdout threat. 

I’m really just confused by that. The price of the downgrade seems silly. 

Otherwise I totally agree. In my start-up dynasty I bid up Kamara, not EZE, and it had little to do with the holdout & everything to do with how much I like Kamara. 

But in general, every season we see something like this. And it’s a little baffling. 

 

[kutta]

That’s fair. 

Because of 1 preseason game performance against 2nd stringers? 



Kamara has Murray who’s guaranteed to be in some sort of time share. That doesn’t drop him significantly below EZE? 

(Note - I don’t think it does, but it’s equivalent to your Pollard concern) 

I’m just saying if Zeke sits I’ll at least have Pollard to plug in for a few games. Not expecting Zeke-like numbers, but it’s not a goose egg either.