BTW, I would not take a QB before the 7th or 8th round in this format.
Bad advice.I'd need to know the scoring for QB (4 or 6 pts per passing TD?) But, having a top 5 QB that is an instant play every week without thinking twice about it is a luxury that is worth having.
QB's are productive long into their mid-late 30's...so if you have a young top QB that can be a staple of your lineup than you are already ahead of the game. It frees yourself up to focus on the positions that have much greater turnover from year to year.
Top QB's get very taken for granted in Dynasty Leagues....they are not sexy, but if you plan on winning a competitive dynasty league you better have a good QB.
Clearly I disagree with this. I agree you want to have a top quarterback every year but I disagree with the need to take one early at the expense of other more important positions. Using FanEx scoring (which mirrors the WCOFF format) look back over the past three years. The top 10 QBs in each year varies enough that drafting a top QB early is useless.
2003
Culpepper 331.15
Manning, P 326.55
Hasselbeck 306.50
Green 306.45
Brooks 295.60
McNair 294.60
Bulger 290.25
Kitna 281.15
Favre 280.75
Johnson, B 280.55
2004
Culpepper 439.45
Manning, P 419.05
McNabb 350.05
Green 331.35
Plummer 320.05
Favre 315.80
Delhomme 312.60
Brooks 305.50
Bulger 297.20
Brady 286.10
2005
Palmer 321.20
Brady 310.70
Manning, P 294.85
Manning, E 284.10
Hasselbeck 278.35
Bledsoe 276.05
Brees 271.70
Green 269.50
Vick 266.70
Collins 266.25
So of these the only players to make the list all three years are Peyton Manning and Trent Green. To get Manning, you will have to invest at least a second round choice (early) and probably a first rounder.
Now the question comes down to what are you willing to give up to get Manning? Personally I would give up a third rounder (WR/TE) but not a first or second rounder. Last year, Manning was the third rated QB in the league. Yet he was outside the top 12 quarterbacks 5 times in the first 12 weeks (Wk 2, 3, 5, 8-Bye and 12). That is nearly half the time he didn't DESERVE to start in most leagues. Still, for the year, he finished as the third best scoring QB. Take it a step further. If your championship was in week 16, Manning scored 5.80 points. That ranked 35th in the league. On your championship day - your stud QB wasn't good enough to start for ANY of the other 31 games (because of the Colts clinching - I am aware but it doesn't change his numbers in your biggest game). He didn't score at all in week 17.
So what did people give up to get him last year? Guys like LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and Tiki Barber. Manning was a top three pick in a LOT of leagues because of his record breaking 2004 season.
http://football.myfantasyleague.com/fflnet.../draft_analysis
My point is that you could have gotten Trent Green a LOT later in your drafts and he is still as consistent (though not as good) as Peyton Manning. And every year there are new players emerging.
I play to win THIS year EVERY year. I don't throw a season in the hopes of getting a top player in next year's draft. So say you took Manning last year. Who would you have taken in this year's draft? Reggie Bush? DeAngelo Williams? Joseph Addai? None of them are assured of ANYTHING. Deuce McAllister is not going to sit back and let Bush take his job. Williams may not do more than back Foster up this season. And Addai might be the best of the bunch but so was Carnell Williams last year and what did he end up doing?
The bottom line is that QB is the most injury prone position in the NFL and due to the fact that they DO have longer careers, getting one is easier than getting a top back. Go with the backs and receivers early and take some chances on emerging QBs later. You can almost always get a rookie QB late. So if you can get Matt Leinart in the seventh round of your draft, you probably will already be set at RB, WR, TE and even have a decent starting QB.
In drafts at MFL this year, here is where the QBs are going:
http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2006/d...NONKEEPER&TIME=
The thing to note is the AVERAGE Draft Position. Guys like Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green are going between picks 88 and 104. In that very same range you have Jake Plummer, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. You can wait even longer to get the rookies, Brett Favre, Aaron Brooks and Chris Simms.
There is a reason RBs are king in FFLs. I tried bucking the trend for years and only had ONE season that was successful when I did not take a RB in the first round. That was when I won the CBS Expert's League with Randy Moss as my first round pick. And I was fortunate that it was Brian Westbrook's first breakout season as well or I probably would not have won the league.
The key to winning dynasty leagues is to merge older players with younger players. And getting stars at all positions is impossible IF the other owners in your league have any knowledge at all about the game. To get Manning this year takes about the 10th pick overall. You can do that, but your core will likely be QB/WR rather than RB/RB. And that is very dangerous indeed.
And whether a QB scores 4 points or 6 is really irrelevent. Read Joe's VBD article about value between positions. The key is how much separation there is between the top QBs and the ones you will end up with if you draft them late. That is all that really matters.
This is a mistake that I have made in the past. Chasing the future = you need to prognosticate longevity in a league that maims players every week. IF you can get three good years out of a player you should be ecstatic. In virtually every Dynasty draft some veterans fall drastically further than you would anticipate. Be patient, but don't pass on players that have been in the league for awhile.
