Henry / McGahee to both get the ball (1 Viewer)

[Chris Smith]

From the Blogger...Jun 19, 2004, 12:35Bills - RB Henry 1200 Yards; RB McGahee 800 Yards?Jeff Legwold, Tennessean.com - [Full Article]After seeing running back Willis McGahee work in recent minicamps, the Bills plan to get Travis Henry and McGahee as many carries as possible. The feeling is if Henry can pound out 1,200 yards or so and McGahee can get 800 yards, the Bills will be one of the best rushing teams in the league.''All I'm looking forward to is putting on the pads and practicing,'' said McGahee, who suffered a serious knee injury in his last game at Miami and didn't play in his rookie season. ''That's where you find out where everybody is.''McGahee now has ''Guess Who's Back?'' tattooed on the left side of his neck.

 

[Spartans Rule]

The surprise to me isn't so much the splitting carries. Its the fact that Buffalo wants to emphasize the run so much.I had figured with the drafting of Lee Evans that the Bills were looking to get back to the wide open offense they had success with in 2002. Guess not.

 

[bostonfred2]

The surprise to me isn't so much the splitting carries. Its the fact that Buffalo wants to emphasize the run so much.I had figured with the drafting of Lee Evans that the Bills were looking to get back to the wide open offense they had success with in 2002. Guess not.

One of the things that makes me like Moulds so much this year is that they will be a better running team. Drew has a decent but unspectaular play action move, the team should get more first downs this year, and opposing safeties will have to worry about a fresh running game, as well as a new speed WR and a healthy Moulds.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

not trying to discredit the article, but it's from the Tennessean. How much insight do they really have into the plans of the Bills coaching staff?

Regardless, I think that's pretty much been my point all along. Henry will still get his carries, yards, TDs, etc. but the Bills will emphasize the run much more than they have in the past and McGahee will pick up all those extra carries, yards, receptions, etc.

The Bills really were a pass-oriented attack the last couple years, as Gilbride rarely committed to the run with any kind of consistency. There should be plenty of rushing yards to go around for both RBs this year. But, I seriously doubt that you'll see McGahee drastically eat into Henry's production.

Also, the Bills can not survive relying heavily on Bledsoe's arm anymore. They need to establish the run, and that will open up play-action and the passing game. That has been the plan since Mularkey was hired.

 

[Football Menace]

The surprise to me isn't so much the splitting carries. Its the fact that Buffalo wants to emphasize the run so much.I had figured with the drafting of Lee Evans that the Bills were looking to get back to the wide open offense they had success with in 2002. Guess not.

I don't know if this report is coming from the team, or the reporter. But if the Bill expect McGahee to get 800 yards, he's going to need between 180-200 carries to do it. With McGahee getting that many carries, I don't see how anyone can think Henry will be as effective as in the past. Time for the Henry owners to start unloading him while he still has "Name Value."

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Time for the Henry owners to start unloading him while he still has "Name Value."

That would be a BIG mistake

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

They won't be top 3 running the ball, more like top 10 material to me. They need to win 10+ games to be in that top-3 category I think. They will need to protect the lead going into the 4th where the weathered Defense is hurting from the punishing runs of Henry only to see a fast RB named Willis in there then. Also I think you need somewhat a mobile QB to help the running game. Bledsoe as we all know is a statue back there.

 

[-OZ-]

The surprise to me isn't so much the splitting carries. Its the fact that Buffalo wants to emphasize the run so much.I had figured with the drafting of Lee Evans that the Bills were looking to get back to the wide open offense they had success with in 2002. Guess not.

Lee Evans's role for 2004 - 1. Run as fast as possible downfield, take a defender with you, try to get two. 2. Jog back to the line of scimmage, which is probably 4-5 yards at most from where you left it. 3. Repeat. If it is 3rd and long, he might get a look from Drew.EDIT to add: It's the same role Sammy Parker will play, except Sammy will not pull two defenders and won't get the look on 3rd and long.

 

[Marc Levin]

The surprise to me isn't so much the splitting carries. Its the fact that Buffalo wants to emphasize the run so much.I had figured with the drafting of Lee Evans that the Bills were looking to get back to the wide open offense they had success with in 2002. Guess not.

I don't know if this report is coming from the team, or the reporter. But if the Bill expect McGahee to get 800 yards, he's going to need between 180-200 carries to do it. With McGahee getting that many carries, I don't see how anyone can think Henry will be as effective as in the past. Time for the Henry owners to start unloading him while he still has "Name Value."

Your numbers are likely biased, as is this random 1200/800 split this reporter came up with.Presumably, McGahee is the speedier threat and should be able to average in the 4.5-5.0 range. If he is at the low end of that spectrum, he won't get his 800 yards, if he is at the high end, he will appraoch 800 - give McG 150 carries and Henry 300 and you have approximately what I have been predicting as the split in carries for them.I will agree that if McG gets close to 200 carries, he will significantly hurt Henry's numbers. I also contend strongly that McG won't be extensively used out of the gate and that he will start to see a spike in carries a few games into the season, and potentially a huge spike if (when - sorry Aaron!) the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs. 150 carries ais EXTENSIVE use for a back that is also likely to see almost all the targets to backs out of the passing game.

 

[Chris Smith]

good comments so far.I posted these to the forum to get some dialogue going on these topics. I gotta say that I find it doubtful that the Bills will have 2000 yards worth of rushing from these two players, let alone the 1200/800 split.I think Henry will get the majority of the work to begin the season with McGahee perhaps becoming more and more of a factor as the season goes on if he can still perform at the level he did in his final collegiate season.I think the carry breakdown will likely be something like thisHenry 230-300 carriesMcGahee 100-170 carriesyardage will be no more than 1800 total rushing yards between them.

 

[Chris Smith]

Here are my projections on the two players at this time

Pos	Name	Team	Car	RuYd	Avg	RuTD	Tar	Rec	ReYd	ReTDRB	Henry	Bills	280	1176	4.2	10	42	27	170	0RB	McGahee	Bills	120	588	4.9	4	28	19	150	0

 

[Football Menace]

Your numbers are likely biased, as is this random 1200/800 split this reporter came up with.Presumably, McGahee is the speedier threat and should be able to average in the 4.5-5.0 range. If he is at the low end of that spectrum, he won't get his 800 yards, if he is at the high end, he will appraoch 800 - give McG 150 carries and Henry 300 and you have approximately what I have been predicting as the split in carries for them.I will agree that if McG gets close to 200 carries, he will significantly hurt Henry's numbers. I also contend strongly that McG won't be extensively used out of the gate and that he will start to see a spike in carries a few games into the season, and potentially a huge spike if (when - sorry Aaron!) the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs. 150 carries ais EXTENSIVE use for a back that is also likely to see almost all the targets to backs out of the passing game.

I'm going off of what the reporter is saying, presuming he's getting his info from a realiable source. I think McGahee will avg. around 4.0-4.5ypc. One guess is just as good as another. This article may be nothing more than a fluff piece, but if it's true, IMO it shows that the Bills want to use McGahee extensively. As I've said before, Henry will not worth the price you'll have to pay to get him.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Here are my projections on the two players at this time

Pos	Name	Team	Car	RuYd	Avg	RuTD	Tar	Rec	ReYd	ReTDRB	Henry	Bills	280	1176	4.2	10	42	27	170	0RB	McGahee	Bills	120	588	4.9	4	28	19	150	0

I would be shocked if the Bills only gave 400 carries to those 2 RBs this year. 450 seems more likely, IMO.They had 427 rushing attempts last year despite having the 30th ranked offense and an offensive coordinator who refused to call running plays, even in 3rd & short situations.300 carries for Henry and 150 for McGahee sounds about right to me. If Henry can average 4.3 y/c with improved play from the offensive line and a more effective passing game, that would put him at 1290 yards. If McGahee can average 4.6 y/c, that puts him at 690 yards. That combines for 1980 yards, which I think is completely possible and attainable this year.Henry will get the majority of the TDs and McGahee will likely see a lot of time on 3rd downs.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think the carry breakdown will likely be something like thisHenry 230-300 carriesMcGahee 100-170 carries

Don't go out on too much of a limb there, Chris.

 

[ko-jack]

not trying to discredit the article, but it's from the Tennessean. How much insight do they really have into the plans of the Bills coaching staff?

how much do the bills coaches even know what they will do? they are rookies and its june. a 1200-800 split sure sounds nice, but as soon as 1 back has a better average per carry or a better game than the other back, do you ride the hot hand or the 1200-800 ratio? as soon as the bills are 0-1 or 1-2, the #### will hit the fan and 1200-800 goes out the window. the player that gives them the best chance to win, or looks better will be in there

 

[Marc Levin]

Here are my projections on the two players at this time

Pos	Name	Team	Car	RuYd	Avg	RuTD	Tar	Rec	ReYd	ReTDRB	Henry	Bills	280	1176	4.2	10	42	27	170	0RB	McGahee	Bills	120	588	4.9	4	28	19	150	0

I would be shocked if the Bills only gave 400 carries to those 2 RBs this year. 450 seems more likely, IMO.They had 427 rushing attempts last year despite having the 30th ranked offense and an offensive coordinator who refused to call running plays, even in 3rd & short situations.300 carries for Henry and 150 for McGahee sounds about right to me. If Henry can average 4.3 y/c with improved play from the offensive line and a more effective passing game, that would put him at 1290 yards. If McGahee can average 4.6 y/c, that puts him at 690 yards. That combines for 1980 yards, which I think is completely possible and attainable this year.Henry will get the majority of the TDs and McGahee will likely see a lot of time on 3rd downs.

Thieved the vernacular directly from my mandible.

 

[cracKer]

My updated projections:Henry- 1200 yardsMcGahee- 800 yards

 

[JRussell_MD2B]

I've never really watched many Bills games. Who received most of the goal line carries last year? I assume it was Henry since McG was still recovering. Since McG is back, will Henry still get most of the redzone touches or will McG begin to vulture those away?

 

[Marc Levin]

I've never really watched many Bills games. Who received most of the goal line carries last year? I assume it was Henry since McG was still recovering. Since McG is back, will Henry still get most of the redzone touches or will McG begin to vulture those away?

McG didn't see the field during a single game last year - near the end of the year he was able to start practicing with the team.Henry shared a miniscule amount of touches with Joe Burns, and Henry pretty much got ALL the rushing work for the Bills last year except for time missed due to injury. Burns filled in very poorly in the one game Henry missed.Edit to add: I doubt the smaller speed back of McG will fill in for power forward Henry rushing at the G/L, but stranger things have happened. I DO believe two back sets near the g/l will be a norm - and either Henry straight ahead or McG with a pass in the flat or speed to the corner will be how the bulk of the team's red zone touchdowns occur.

 

[PhinsFan]

I've never really watched many Bills games. Who received most of the goal line carries last year? I assume it was Henry since McG was still recovering. Since McG is back, will Henry still get most of the redzone touches or will McG begin to vulture those away?

From what I've heard, McGahee is the better goal line back.

 

[Unlucky]

The surprise to me isn't so much the splitting carries. Its the fact that Buffalo wants to emphasize the run so much.I had figured with the drafting of Lee Evans that the Bills were looking to get back to the wide open offense they had success with in 2002. Guess not.

However, they were still just 8-8 with that great offense. Perhaps they want to be more of a defensive/run a lot team.

 

[1612]

As i've said for months, RBBC in Buffalo. Henry is grossly over-valued where he has been going (mid 2nd round). RBBC members shouldn't be considered until at least the mid 3rd in a 12 team league.

 

[Marc Levin]

I've never really watched many Bills games. Who received most of the goal line carries last year? I assume it was Henry since McG was still recovering. Since McG is back, will Henry still get most of the redzone touches or will McG begin to vulture those away?

From what I've heard, McGahee is the better goal line back.

From what sources?I don't doubt it could turn out to be true in three or four months, but considering Henry has actually run NFL TDs, and McGahee has not had one carry yet, it is hard to say one is "better" than the other. There is simply no basis to judge "better" or "worse" - and considering Henry's demonstrated red zone ability (see below), I'd have a difficult time saying "better" regardless of what McG has shown in mini-camps.While McGahee may have some skill sets that seem to translate into G/L productivity, I haven't seen any evidence that Henry is a poor or incapable g/l back. In fact, he is an EXCELLENT power back - especially when sniffing the endzone. On 53 rushes by Henry inside the red zone, he produced 18 first downs and 10 TDs. In other words, just about every other carry by '03 Henry in the red zone produced something very good - either another first down inside the 20 yard line or a TD.Another note - Henry saw a spike in his productivity in several very important situations - when he got more than 20 carries his YPC spiked to 4.8, in the fourth quarter it spiked to 4.6, when ahead by less than 8 points it spiked to 5.3 YPC, and he was 3 for 4 on making first downs when rushing on fourth down. Sounds like a power back to me. Most impressively, the 18 times Henry ran the ball on third down in 2003, he had an insane 7.9 YPC average with 12 first downs and 1 TD. On 18 third down carries, 13 good things happened - 12 firsts, 1 TD and 7.9 YPC. THAT is incredible.But, you know, NFL personnel tend to completely ignore the stats available to us when making decisions on who to play in what gametime situations.

 

[Marc Levin]

As i've said for months, RBBC in Buffalo. Henry is grossly over-valued where he has been going (mid 2nd round). RBBC members shouldn't be considered until at least the mid 3rd in a 12 team league.

 

[1612]

As i've said for months, RBBC in Buffalo. Henry is grossly over-valued where he has been going (mid 2nd round). RBBC members shouldn't be considered until at least the mid 3rd in a 12 team league.

No to what. You said you could see McGahee getting 800 yards rushing. If that isn't RBBC then what is?Henry in the 2nd round in a 12 team league is ridiculous. If people take a part of a RBBC in the 2nd round more power to them, but it's a bad move.

 

[Marc Levin]

As i've said for months, RBBC in Buffalo.  Henry is grossly over-valued where he has been going (mid 2nd round).  RBBC members shouldn't be considered until at least the mid 3rd in a 12 team league.

No to what. You said you could see McGahee getting 800 yards rushing. If that isn't RBBC then what is?Henry in the 2nd round in a 12 team league is ridiculous. If people take a part of a RBBC in the 2nd round more power to them, but it's a bad move.

It assumed 2G rushing - I ALSO saw Henry getting 1200+ - and the large bulk of the TDs - that is a feature back worthy of a mid-second in any 12 team league.I have REPEATEDLY said there does not need to be a RBBC for McG and Henry to both co-exist in the backfield with both getting plenty of touches. McG can average 8 carries and 3-4 receptions without touching Henry's 300-ish carries, 1200+ yards, and 8-10 TDs. If those numbers aren't worth a 2nd round pick, I don't know what is.Seee Aaron's last post in this thread for exactly why I shook my head no at your RBBC idea.

 

[1612]

As i've said for months, RBBC in Buffalo.  Henry is grossly over-valued where he has been going (mid 2nd round).  RBBC members shouldn't be considered until at least the mid 3rd in a 12 team league.

No to what. You said you could see McGahee getting 800 yards rushing. If that isn't RBBC then what is?Henry in the 2nd round in a 12 team league is ridiculous. If people take a part of a RBBC in the 2nd round more power to them, but it's a bad move.

It assumed 2G rushing - I ALSO saw Henry getting 1200+ - and the large bulk of the TDs - that is a feature back worthy of a mid-second in any 12 team league.I have REPEATEDLY said there does not need to be a RBBC for McG and Henry to both co-exist in the backfield with both getting plenty of touches. McG can average 8 carries and 3-4 receptions without touching Henry's 300-ish carries, 1200+ yards, and 8-10 TDs. If those numbers aren't worth a 2nd round pick, I don't know what is.Seee Aaron's last post in this thread for exactly why I shook my head no at your RBBC idea.

The thing is that if McGahee is getting carries in a game it's gonna be hard to take him out if he is highly productive, which he will be if he is healthy.Henry has huge risk having a high quality RB sharing carries with him. If they go with the hot hand there are going to be quite a few games where McGahee will be getting the bulk of the work.Even with Henry getting more carries, the threat of McGahee being used more in some games diminishes Henry's value. Henry will not be a sure thing week in and week out, which makes him a horrible 2nd round pick.Do you really think that the coaches are going to say, "McGahee your doing great in the game but we can't give you more than 8 carries, sorry". NO, if he's producing he will be getting some major carries in certain games.

 

[jurb26]

As i've said for months, RBBC in Buffalo.  Henry is grossly over-valued where he has been going (mid 2nd round).  RBBC members shouldn't be considered until at least the mid 3rd in a 12 team league.

No to what. You said you could see McGahee getting 800 yards rushing. If that isn't RBBC then what is?Henry in the 2nd round in a 12 team league is ridiculous. If people take a part of a RBBC in the 2nd round more power to them, but it's a bad move.

It assumed 2G rushing - I ALSO saw Henry getting 1200+ - and the large bulk of the TDs - that is a feature back worthy of a mid-second in any 12 team league.I have REPEATEDLY said there does not need to be a RBBC for McG and Henry to both co-exist in the backfield with both getting plenty of touches. McG can average 8 carries and 3-4 receptions without touching Henry's 300-ish carries, 1200+ yards, and 8-10 TDs. If those numbers aren't worth a 2nd round pick, I don't know what is.Seee Aaron's last post in this thread for exactly why I shook my head no at your RBBC idea.

Uhhhh, as much as it pains me to say it, I agree with Marc and Aaron. I see the Bills O heading the same direction as the Packers. Greater priority on the run. I would feel very comfortable placing either Henry or Willis in my top 10 if I knew only one would be the main option as Green is. However, Henry and Willis can both very easily coexists and be productive in the O w/o RBBC. Henry should and will at least to start be the primary rushing threat. Willis will play the 3rd down and spell role very well. Willis will be the rec. threat out of the backfield as Henry has always struggled in that role. With what I see as about 470-500 touches (430-450 rushes, 40-50 rec) to go around between the two of them, both can prove value.

 

[jurb26]

The thing is that if McGahee is getting carries in a game it's gonna be hard to take him out if he is highly productive, which he will be if he is healthy.Henry has huge risk having a high quality RB sharing carries with him. If they go with the hot hand there are going to be quite a few games where McGahee will be getting the bulk of the work.Even with Henry getting more carries, the threat of McGahee being used more in some games diminishes Henry's value. Henry will not be a sure thing week in and week out, which makes him a horrible 2nd round pick.Do you really think that the coaches are going to say, "McGahee your doing great in the game but we can't give you more than 8 carries, sorry". NO, if he's producing he will be getting some major carries in certain games.

This I agree with, but think you are opening a whole new debate here. This is a situation in which Willis takes over the entire role IMO. I am basing the argument around the assumption that Buf will not allow/want that to happen just yet.I agree with you if you are trying to say that Willis can take over as the main guy though. I actually expect it.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Historically, how often have two RB's ran for more than 800 yards on the same team in the same season?In those seasons, how often has the back with the best #'s been a legit top 15-20 RB?Cleveland with Byner and Mack come to mind. Who else?

 

[joffer]

The thing is that if McGahee is getting carries in a game it's gonna be hard to take him out if he is highly productive, which he will be if he is healthy.

I'm not as convinced as many here that McGahee is going to be the same back that we saw his senior year at Miami. That injury he suffered was devastating, and even though he thinks he's healthy, some backs don't make it all the way back from something like that. I guess what I'm saying is that most are assuming McGahee will be successful with a high YPC. I'm rooting for him, but I don't think it's that cut and dry.

 

[Floyd The Barber]

Aaron Rudinicki wrote:

not trying to discredit the article, but it's from the Tennessean. How much insight do they really have into the plans of the Bills coaching staff?Regardless, I think that's pretty much been my point all along. Henry will still get his carries, yards, TDs, etc. but the Bills will emphasize the run much more than they have in the past and McGahee will pick up all those extra carries, yards, receptions, etc.The Bills really were a pass-oriented attack the last couple years, as Gilbride rarely committed to the run with any kind of consistency. There should be plenty of rushing yards to go around for both RBs this year. But, I seriously doubt that you'll see McGahee drastically eat into Henry's production.Also, the Bills can not survive relying heavily on Bledsoe's arm anymore. They need to establish the run, and that will open up play-action and the passing game. That has been the plan since Mularkey was hired.

You summed it well and correctly, Aaron.The only part of this I don't agree with is to discred it because it's in the Tennessean. And I'm not saying I disagree with you. I just don't think it makes any difference. This (1200/800) is a BEST CASE scenario, assuming McGahee has no setbacks from his knee going ">".The fact is that those of us who used a logical mind came to the conclusion that the hiring of Mike Mularkey would bring a renewed committemnt to the run and make any McGahee's production IN ADDITION to Henry, not at his expense.This point was confirmed by the Bills OC Tom Clement(?) a couple of weeks ago when he was asked to name an offensive breakout player in 2004 and named Henry. How much plainer can it get to the McGahee pimps? Willie 'll be fine down the road. It just takes time to come back from that kind of knee injury.The absolute best McGahee will achieve this year (barring injury) is an every third series situation ala Karim Abdul Jabbar and whoever the other guy was a few years back.But for those who disagree, that's cool. Let's get Henry cheap while we can!!Cheers! ickles: ickles: ickles:

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The feeling is if Henry can pound out 1,200 yards or so and McGahee can get 800 yards, the Bills will be one of the best rushing teams in the league.

If this writer isn't just making this stuff up, it's not particularly good news for Henry.Numbers thrown around in the preseason like that tend to be best-case-scenario numbers. 2,000 yards between them is certainy possible, but I think it's about the maximum of what can be reasonably expected. If the split is 1200 / 800, then 1200 yards appears to be the maximum of what can reasonbly be expected from Henry.An upside of 1200 yards is not overly attractive for a 2nd round pick.

 

[tommyGunZ]

This I agree with, but think you are opening a whole new debate here. This is a situation in which Willis takes over the entire role IMO.

Not necessarily. Henry's propensity to put the ball on the ground could easily lead to a situation where he's replaced by a frustrated coach for a few series (or the remainder of the game) if McGahee is productive.My opinions of Henry are well known, but I find it interesting that several well informed posters are advocating Henry's value as a mid 2nd rounder with all of the question marks. In the mid-2nd, Henry's risk outweighs his potential rewards.

 

[1612]

In the mid-2nd, Henry's risk outweighs his potential rewards.

Exactly.

 

[Floyd The Barber]

joffer wrote:

I'm not as convinced as many here that McGahee is going to be the same back that we saw his senior year at Miami. That injury he suffered was devastating, and even though he thinks he's healthy, some backs don't make it all the way back from something like that.

Oh, come one, Joffer. there's been TONS of backs who have come back from their knee going ">" to produce in their first year!!Let's see... there's, ah...And there's, ah....Well, remember the great year that, ah... that one guy had!! What was his name?Anyway, there's a TON of them. I just can't remember them off hand. But take my word for it, they're out there. alright!!! imp-pimp-pimp:And I called him first!! Cheers! ickles: ickles: ickles:

 

[Tau837]

The thing is that if McGahee is getting carries in a game it's gonna be hard to take him out if he is highly productive, which he will be if he is healthy.

I'm not as convinced as many here that McGahee is going to be the same back that we saw his senior year at Miami. That injury he suffered was devastating, and even though he thinks he's healthy, some backs don't make it all the way back from something like that. I guess what I'm saying is that most are assuming McGahee will be successful with a high YPC. I'm rooting for him, but I don't think it's that cut and dry.

I agree. McGahee has never played an NFL down. It is far from a given that he will ever be as good as Henry has proven to be during the past two seasons.

 

[Wolverine]

McGahee is not the smaller speed back. He is quite a bit bigger than Henry. Willis goes 6 feet and plays around 230. Henry is 5 foot 9 and plays around 215. It`s true McGahee hasn`t had any NFL carries but he was a great goal line back in college. Also on KFFL they mentioned McGahee would get alot of work in the passing game because he has better receiving skills than Henry. Really right now everyone is just speculating on their roles things won`t get clearer until we see some preseason action.

 

[1612]

Oh, come one, Joffer. there's been TONS of backs who have come back from their knee going ">" to produce in their first year!!Let's see... there's, ah...And there's, ah....Well, remember the great year that, ah... that one guy had!! What was his name?

The point is that Henry has too much risk to be going in the 2nd round, not that McGahee is definitely healed.Let's say you only put the odds at 20% that McGahee is close to pre-injury form, that is enough risk to start worrying about taking Henry the the 2nd round.Also Buffalo either needs to have McGahee come through or they have to pay Henry a fat contract this coming year. Buffalo wants McGahee to eventually show that he can be the man, they are hoping he can take over. It's better business and if they feel McGahee is on par with Henry skill wise there is no reason they need to pay Henry the big bucks.Whether or not McGahee is healed is the main question, because if he is why would Buffalo have reservations about playing him more than Henry who they won't even have in 2005.If McGahee isn't healed and flops, then Henry is solid, but as things stand now Henry is quite risky, at least enough to stay away from him in the 2nd.

 

[Marc Levin]

In the mid-2nd, Henry's risk outweighs his potential rewards.

Exactly.

I keep getting fished into this debate regarding Henry as a risky pick, but I don't see one other mid-2nd round back with as much potential as Henry to go 300/1200/10, and I see no other back at that spot with less risk. The "risk" being touted is a belief - PURE BELIEF - that McG is destined to take over for Henry in 2004 and it is foolish for anyone to think he won't do so. If that is the idea being touted as the risk, I can't argue - it is like trying to shake a religious belief and I won't get into a debate like that.Mid-2nd, guys like DDavis, Faulk, Barlow are gone, and guys like Dillon, Rudi, Tiki, CuMar, Duce, SDavis are available - YOU could see one of them as less of a risk than Henry, but there is no reason to call any one of those guys SAFER than Henry as a mid-2nd round pick.Had the statement been "go Holt instead," I'd justify the position and not argue, but saying Henry isn't worth the take there for a RB2 is, IMO, a baseless opinion.He's certainly a high risk RB1, but he is a minimal risk RB2. And, Floyd stated it best:

the hiring of Mike Mularkey would bring a renewed committemnt to the run and make any McGahee's production IN ADDITION to Henry, not at his expense.This point was confirmed by the Bills OC Tom Clement(?) a couple of weeks ago when he was asked to name an offensive breakout player in 2004 and named Henry.

 

[Marc Levin]

Oh, come one, Joffer. there's been TONS of backs who have come back from their knee going ">" to produce in their first year!!Let's see... there's, ah...And there's, ah....Well, remember the great year that, ah... that one guy had!! What was his name?

The point is that Henry has too much risk to be going in the 2nd round, not that McGahee is definitely healed.Let's say you only put the odds at 20% that McGahee is close to pre-injury form, that is enough risk to start worrying about taking Henry the the 2nd round.

Why? That is where I keep getting sucked in - a 100% healthy McG is not 100% assured of taking so many carries from Henry that Henry will drop below 300 carries.There's a basic fact that a lot of folks are wrongfully assuming - a 100% McGahee taking over for Henry is NOT assured - nor even PROBABLE - no matter what your "belief" about each player's ability.

 

[Tau837]

In the mid-2nd, Henry's risk outweighs his potential rewards.

Exactly.

Mid second in a 12 team league means 18 picks are gone. Of those, you can typically expect at least 14 to be RBs.So to me your statement says that Henry is less worthy of being the 15th RB drafted than alternative RBs. Suppose the following RBs are off the board by mid second:TomlinsonHolmesMcAllisterGreenPortisLewisAlexanderJamesWilliamsTaylorBarlowFaulkDomanick DavisStephen DavisHere is a list of remaining RBs that might merit consideration at that point (actually, many of these are reaches IMO):HenryDillonBarberRudi JohnsonMartinBennettStaleyJulius JonesShippKevin JonesGarnerWestbrookThomas JonesYou're saying you think Henry's risk/reward value is worse than the alternatives?

 

[Football Menace]

Marc Levin wrote:

It assumed 2G rushing - I ALSO saw Henry getting 1200+ - and the large bulk of the TDs - that is a feature back worthy of a mid-second in any 12 team league.I have REPEATEDLY said there does not need to be a RBBC for McG and Henry to both co-exist in the backfield with both getting plenty of touches. McG can average 8 carries and 3-4 receptions without touching Henry's 300-ish carries, 1200+ yards, and 8-10 TDs. If those numbers aren't worth a 2nd round pick, I don't know what is.Seee Aaron's last post in this thread for exactly why I shook my head no at your RBBC idea.

We can project the numbers all we want. None of us know what's going to happen. Hell, the coaching staff doesn't even know what's going to happen. What sticks out to me is over the last two seasons, T. Henry has averaged almost 1400 yards rushing. McGahee hasn't had one carry. If the reporter got this info. from a reliable source, all of a sudden Buffalo sees Henry's numbers deacreasing, while McGahee's drastically increase. Take it for what it's worth, but I'm not spending a high draft choice on Henry.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I feel 100% confident stating this fact: Henry has the LEAST risk of any RB taken in the 2nd round this year. I am over people who think McGahee is ready for a 300+ carry season this year.Henry will start EVERY game as long as he is healthy, and he will get the bulk of the carries, including 95% of goalline work. McGahee will be brought along slowly...will likely be the primary 3rd down back and occasionally come into spell Henry for some series.Henry is a PROVEN stud who can handle the workload and will play injured. McGahee is a RB who had 1 great COLLEGE season over the past 4 or 5 years, has yet to take an NFL snap, and is recovering from one of the most horrific knee injuries suffered by a RB since Napoleon McCallum.I'm really starting to question the sanity of some posters around here.

 

[Football Jones]

I own Henry in a dynasty league, but I wouldn't want any part of him in the 2nd round of a redrafter. In fact, I wouldn't take him in the 3rd. The 3rd round is pretty much full of impact players & I'd rather bank on one of them. There's just too much unknown about the Henry/McGahee situation, IMO (at this point in the offseason, anyway).

 

[Marc Levin]

Marc Levin wrote:

It assumed 2G rushing - I ALSO saw Henry getting 1200+ - and the large bulk of the TDs - that is a feature back worthy of a mid-second in any 12 team league.I have REPEATEDLY said there does not need to be a RBBC for McG and Henry to both co-exist in the backfield with both getting plenty of touches. McG can average 8 carries and 3-4 receptions without touching Henry's 300-ish carries, 1200+ yards, and 8-10 TDs. If those numbers aren't worth a 2nd round pick, I don't know what is.Seee Aaron's last post in this thread for exactly why I shook my head no at your RBBC idea.

We can project the numbers all we want. None of us know what's going to happen. Hell, the coaching staff doesn't even know what's going to happen. What sticks out to me is over the last two seasons, T. Henry has averaged almost 1400 yards rushing. McGahee hasn't had one carry. If the reporter got this info. from a reliable source, all of a sudden Buffalo sees Henry's numbers deacreasing, while McGahee's drastically increase. Take it for what it's worth, but I'm not spending a high draft choice on Henry.

Another bad assumption here - keep reading the thread.There is a HUGE assumption by this reporter that the Bills will leap from 1600 rush yards to 2G - those extra 400 go to McG, plus the 200 you mentioned from Henry, plus anything left over from the other runners last year to make for 800 to McG. But, the 1200/800 numbers are, IMO, dumb, speculative, baseless, etc.The number of carries the Bills will dole out is what is relevant - they had 425-ish last year, and they are expected to jump to 450-ish this year. Can McG get 800 yards on 150 carries? If he rushes at 5.0 YPC he gets darn close with 750.

 

[Marc Levin]

It`s true McGahee hasn`t had any NFL carries but he was a great goal line back in college.

I refer you to the numbers I pulled regarding Henry's ability in the red zone and as a power back. McGahee will have to be TRULY exceptional to top the numbers Henry put up last year in these crucial game time situations:

While McGahee may have some skill sets that seem to translate into G/L productivity, I haven't seen any evidence that Henry is a poor or incapable g/l back. In fact, he is an EXCELLENT power back - especially when sniffing the endzone. On 53 rushes by Henry inside the red zone, he produced 18 first downs and 10 TDs. In other words, just about every other carry by '03 Henry in the red zone produced something very good - either another first down inside the 20 yard line or a TD.Another note - Henry saw a spike in his productivity in several very important situations - when he got more than 20 carries his YPC spiked to 4.8, in the fourth quarter it spiked to 4.6, when ahead by less than 8 points it spiked to 5.3 YPC, and he was 3 for 4 on making first downs when rushing on fourth down. Sounds like a power back to me. Most impressively, the 18 times Henry ran the ball on third down in 2003, he had an insane 7.9 YPC average with 12 first downs and 1 TD. On 18 third down carries, 13 good things happened - 12 firsts, 1 TD and 7.9 YPC. THAT is incredible.

Also:

Also on KFFL they mentioned McGahee would get alot of work in the passing game because he has better receiving skills than Henry. Really right now everyone is just speculating on their roles things won`t get clearer until we see some preseason action.

McG in the passing game is a given, IMO - I give him anywhere from 48-60 catches this year for probably around 400 or so yards. The second sentence is 100% true, but as staff members, we are expected to project each player's role on the team with the data we have at this time. Those ideas may certainly shift as training camp approaches and some reports come out - but this reporter's 1200/800 call is not a fact I will use to alter my projections.

 

[Football Menace]

Aaron Rudnicki wrote:

I feel 100% confident stating this fact: Henry has the LEAST risk of any RB taken in the 2nd round this year. I am over people who think McGahee is ready for a 300+ carry season this year.

Henry will start EVERY game as long as he is healthy, and he will get the bulk of the carries, including 95% of goalline work. McGahee will be brought along slowly...will likely be the primary 3rd down back and occasionally come into spell Henry for some series.

Henry is a PROVEN stud who can handle the workload and will play injured. McGahee is a RB who had 1 great COLLEGE season over the past 4 or 5 years, has yet to take an NFL snap, and is recovering from one of the most horrific knee injuries suffered by a RB since Napoleon McCallum.

I'm really starting to question the sanity of some posters around here.

Dude, no one is saying McGahee is ready for a 300 + carry season (at least I'm not). What I'm saying is McGahee could get enough carries to make Henry not as valuable as where he's getting drafted.You're right. Henry is a proven stud. Henry will play injured. McGahee did have only one great season in college, and had the most horrific knee injury I've seen. But with all of these factors present, the Bills still drafted McGahee in the 1st round. They must have saw something in McGahee that Henry couldn't give them. Cause I've seen guys that have broken legs, sprained ankles, twisted knees that have fallen waaayyyy further in the draft than McGahee.

P.S. - By the number of "wills" in your post, I'm starting to think your on the coaching staff.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

The point is that Henry has too much risk to be going in the 2nd round, not that McGahee is definitely healed.Let's say you only put the odds at 20% that McGahee is close to pre-injury form, that is enough risk to start worrying about taking Henry the the 2nd round.Also Buffalo either needs to have McGahee come through or they have to pay Henry a fat contract this coming year. Buffalo wants McGahee to eventually show that he can be the man, they are hoping he can take over. It's better business and if they feel McGahee is on par with Henry skill wise there is no reason they need to pay Henry the big bucks.Whether or not McGahee is healed is the main question, because if he is why would Buffalo have reservations about playing him more than Henry who they won't even have in 2005.If McGahee isn't healed and flops, then Henry is solid, but as things stand now Henry is quite risky, at least enough to stay away from him in the 2nd.

Bob,I think you need to check a lot of your facts, because you seem to be mistaken on a few issues here.Henry is under contract for 2 more seasons. He signed a 1-year extension last year for $1.25M, IIRC. That is very far from a "fat" contract and is well below maret value for a RB of his calibre that has been to the Pro Bowl.If Henry plays well, the Bills will be able to shop him around to the highest bidder next offseason. It does them no good to have him sit on the bench while putting McGahee on the field and risking re-injury unless McGahee is clearly the superior RB and proves capable of handling a heavy workload right out of the gate.You can quote me on this: Barring injury, Henry will finish among the top-15 fantasy RBs this year. It is a lock. There is no risk here...only upside for McGahee. If he comes back strong, then he'll get more work. But, don't expect his numbers to eat substantially into Henry's this season.-Aaron

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

You're right. Henry is a proven stud. Henry will play injured. McGahee did have only one great season in college, and had the most horrific knee injury I've seen. But with all of these factors present, the Bills still drafted McGahee in the 1st round. They must have saw something in McGahee that Henry couldn't give them. Cause I've seen guys that have broken legs, sprained ankles, twisted knees that have fallen waaayyyy further in the draft than McGahee.

By your logic, Priest Holmes is the riskiest RB being taken in round 1 b/c the Chiefs drafted Larry Johnson in the 1st round last year.