Henry / McGahee to both get the ball (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

for the record, I'm not saying this won't be RBBC or that RBBC is not a definite possibility. But, there are all different types of RBBC situations.Most likely, is that Henry will start and get 75% of the touches along with all the goalline work this year. Considering the Bills are expected to increase their number of rushes, as well as the effectiveness of those carries, as well as their total number of TDs, there is good reason to suspect that his numbers will not suffer very much at all from being a part of this committee compared to year's past when he got closer to 100% of the touches but the Bills running game was an afterthought on Sundays.It is also very likely that McGahee will get roughly 25% of the touches, probably starting out with a smaller proportion in early games and earning more as he and the coaches become more comfortable with his knee. He will likely contribute as the 3rd down RB and spell Henry on occasion.The Bills spent a 1st round pick on McGahee because they believe he can be a very special RB. They were smart and held him out of all games last year to allow his knee to heal properly. Henry is locked up for 2 more years and is a more than capable feature RB who the entire team and coaching staff respects greatly as a player. It makes the most sense to most people who have looked at this situation that McGahee will play a complementary role this year and be ready for feature back status in 2005. If he proves himself capable this year, then the Bills will have an extremely valuable commodity in Henry to deal next offseason. It would benefit the Bills as a franchise if Henry goes out and does well...meanwhile, McGahee will have fresh legs and be ready to hit the ground running in 2005.Turning the reigns over to McGahee this year will risk (a) Henry losing a lot of his trade value, (b) McGahee re-injuring his knee, and © upsetting Henry and possibly the lockerroom if a RB controvery emerges.The only upside to turning over to McGahee is if he's clearly superior to Henry on the field and suffers no setbacks in his recovery and proves durable enough to handle 20 carries/game. After watching Henry play for the past 3 years, I think the chances of that happening THIS year are very small. For most of the games last season, Henry was the best player on the entire Bills offense. He earned the right to be the feature back this year, and the new coaches haven't stopped raving about him and what they saw on film since they came to town.

 

[jurb26]

I feel 100% confident stating this fact: Henry has the LEAST risk of any RB taken in the 2nd round this year. I am over people who think McGahee is ready for a 300+ carry season this year.Henry will start EVERY game as long as he is healthy, and he will get the bulk of the carries, including 95% of goalline work. McGahee will be brought along slowly...will likely be the primary 3rd down back and occasionally come into spell Henry for some series.Henry is a PROVEN stud who can handle the workload and will play injured. McGahee is a RB who had 1 great COLLEGE season over the past 4 or 5 years, has yet to take an NFL snap, and is recovering from one of the most horrific knee injuries suffered by a RB since Napoleon McCallum.I'm really starting to question the sanity of some posters around here.

Aaron, I think you are overstating this a bit. While Henry has lower risk than most you will find in the 2nd. You can not ignore the fact that Barlow and Taylor may possibly be there in the 2nd. While yes McG will most likely be brought along slowly, if he does in fact prove to be the player he was in college. Then he will be better than Henry and Buf would only be wise to have him take over. Yes, he had only 1 great college season, that does not discredit his skills what so ever. Here are the guys that were in school along with him: Edge, Portis, Gore. Not bad company. If you need to remember a great RB who as you said had only one great college season, you need only look to the left. The knee is a serious concern, yes. However I have not heard a single negative report regarding his recovery. NOT ONE! This injury is not the tombstone that it once was. Plenty of guys are beating anymore. McG certianly can as well, well have to wait and see.Plus I have to ask the question. If Henry is such a solid stud and sure fire to retain his role, then why are all the roomers even flying? I don't hear these things being said about LT, Portis, Holmes, or any of the other "stud" RBs that Henry seems to be classed with. Henry simply is not a stud RB. He produced like one for a few seasons, but is not of the elite caliber. McG if healty quite possibly is though. That is why speculation revolves around theses 2 guys IMO.

 

[Football Menace]

Aaron Rudnicki wrote:

By your logic, Priest Holmes is the riskiest RB being taken in round 1 b/c the Chiefs drafted Larry Johnson in the 1st round last year.

C'mon Aaron. You know that's a totally different situation.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Aaron, I think you are overstating this a bit. While Henry has lower risk than most you will find in the 2nd. You can not ignore the fact that Barlow and Taylor may possibly be there in the 2nd. While yes McG will most likely be brought along slowly, if he does in fact prove to be the player he was in college. Then he will be better than Henry and Buf would only be wise to have him take over. Yes, he had only 1 great college season, that does not discredit his skills what so ever. Here are the guys that were in school along with him: Edge, Portis, Gore. Not bad company. If you need to remember a great RB who as you said had only one great college season, you need only look to the left. The knee is a serious concern, yes. However I have not heard a single negative report regarding his recovery. NOT ONE! This injury is not the tombstone that it once was. Plenty of guys are beating anymore. McG certianly can as well, well have to wait and see.Plus I have to ask the question. If Henry is such a solid stud and sure fire to retain his role, then why are all the roomers even flying? I don't hear these things being said about LT, Portis, Holmes, or any of the other "stud" RBs that Henry seems to be classed with. Henry simply is not a stud RB. He produced like one for a few seasons, but is not of the elite caliber. McG if healty quite possibly is though. That is why speculation revolves around theses 2 guys IMO.

I don't consider Taylor a 2nd round pick, and Barlow has gone in the 1st round of quite a few drafts. My comment was in response to people arguing that Henry has more risk than any player being taken in the 2nd round...I really just can't fathom someone out there actually believing that.You basically agreed with me: McGahee has only had 1 great season, is coming off a horrific knee injury that normally takes 2 years for a RB to recover (BTW, McGahee will not be 2 years post surgery until January 2005 and he tore 3 ligaments in his knee, not just the ACL like J.Lewis and E.James did).Those factors alone should diminish the risk enough for people to realize that Henry is very likely going to be the man in Buffalo for this season.Lastly, Henry is not a stud in the same class as the RBs you mentioned. But, he's above average among starters in the league and has always performed best when people doubted him the most. McGahee will have to be VERY GOOD to beat him out and win that starting job.

 

[jurb26]

I don't consider Taylor a 2nd round pick, and Barlow has gone in the 1st round of quite a few drafts. My comment was in response to people arguing that Henry has more risk than any player being taken in the 2nd round...I really just can't fathom someone out there actually believing that.You basically agreed with me: McGahee has only had 1 great season, is coming off a horrific knee injury that normally takes 2 years for a RB to recover (BTW, McGahee will not be 2 years post surgery until January 2005 and he tore 3 ligaments in his knee, not just the ACL like J.Lewis and E.James did).Those factors alone should diminish the risk enough for people to realize that Henry is very likely going to be the man in Buffalo for this season.Lastly, Henry is not a stud in the same class as the RBs you mentioned. But, he's above average among starters in the league and has always performed best when people doubted him the most. McGahee will have to be VERY GOOD to beat him out and win that starting job.

Yes I do agree with you more than disagree Aaron. Like I said to open the post though I think you are overstating the facts. Thats all. Basically the only question I have regarding where this situation ends up is how healthy McG is. If he is 85% or better, I see him as very capable of taking over for Henry. 85% though means both physically and mentally.

 

[ardethan]

By your logic, Priest Holmes is the riskiest RB being taken in round 1 b/c the Chiefs drafted Larry Johnson in the 1st round last year.

lol if you really can't tell the difference between the Priest/LJ situation and the Henry/McG situation.

 

[ardethan]

After watching Henry play for the past 3 years, I think the chances of that happening THIS year are very small.

Is it because McG was injured? It was almost two full years before the season is slated to begin. If he isn't healthy now I don't know that it will ever be. If it's just because he's not "seasoned", well I can't think of many RB's that became great but weren't ready to be great their first years in the NFL.In other words, either you think McGahee will be a star or you don't. This "not this year but next year" stuff is a reach IMO.

 

[Wolverine]

Alot of the Bills problems last year came down to dismal playcalling and failure to commit to the run. They passed on 54% of their plays last year and still only produced about 2700 yards in the air. They ran the ball 427 times last year for 1664 yards. Henry ran for 81% of that for 1356 yards. He had 77% of the teams carries. I think the Bills will rush the ball around 500 times this year and control the clock more to take advantage of a stout defence. Five teams ran the ball more than 500 times last year ( Dallas , Green Bay ,Carolina , Denver and Baltimore) and all five made the playoffs. It`s a copycat league and the Bills have the pieces to implement this game plan. It`s not that McGahee will cut into Henry`s production just that the overall size of the pie will increase.

 

[Marc Levin]

While Henry has lower risk than most you will find in the 2nd. You can not ignore the fact that Barlow

Yes in a 10, maybe even in a 12+ team league, Barlow coul dbe there in the mid-2nd.

and Taylor may possibly be there in the 2nd.

Nope. Even a 10-team league, I can't imagine Taylor available after 2.03 - which is hardly "mid-2nd" as discuussed in this thread.

 

[jurb26]

While Henry has lower risk than most you will find in the 2nd. You can not ignore the fact that Barlow

Yes in a 10, maybe even in a 12+ team league, Barlow coul dbe there in the mid-2nd.

and Taylor may possibly be there in the 2nd. 

Nope. Even a 10-team league, I can't imagine Taylor available after 2.03 - which is hardly "mid-2nd" as discuussed in this thread.

I was responding to Aaron's comment of:

I feel 100% confident stating this fact: Henry has the LEAST risk of any RB taken in the 2nd round this year.

This did not indicate mid 2nd as you and the others in the thread discussed. That is what prompted that response. As FBG currently has these guys right around the level as to where than can go any where from late 1st or early 2nd (11 oand 13). Depending on how your league is set up and how the drafts go, I would envision at least 1 of the 2 ends up a 2nd rd pick in most.

 

[Sinrman]

Hehe I can't wait to see all the McGahee owners wet themselves once Willis gets his first TD...Henry will still be a top RB. No need to panic, just because McGahee might get some PT. They need to get him in there anyways, just so they can see whether they need to cough up the big $$ for Henry or if they can let him go after this season...

 

[Marc Levin]

I was responding to Aaron's comment of:

I feel 100% confident stating this fact: Henry has the LEAST risk of any RB taken in the 2nd round this year.

This did not indicate mid 2nd as you and the others in the thread discussed.

Aha - my bad, sorry.

I think the Bills will rush the ball around 500 times this year and control the clock more to take advantage of a stout defence. Five teams ran the ball more than 500 times last year ( Dallas , Green Bay ,Carolina , Denver and Baltimore) and all five made the playoffs. It`s a copycat league and the Bills have the pieces to implement this game plan. It`s not that McGahee will cut into Henry`s production just that the overall size of the pie will increase.

Wolverine, I think 500 may be high, but if you are correct, I am even MORE confident predicting Henry to be a 300/1200/10 rusher.I think the argument that the pie gets significantly bigger than the 428 carries last year is something sliding right by everyone calling for a RBBC in Buffalo. 475-500 carries in Buffalo would mean running the ball 30+ times a game - which is a nice big ole pie to divide up between Henry and McG and could easily produce a top-15 back in Henry (300 carries, 1200 yards, 8-12 TDs) and a top-24 back in McG (170 carries, 50 catches, 1200 total yards, 4-7 TDs).

 

[jurb26]

Wolverine, I think 500 may be high, but if you are correct, I am even MORE confident predicting Henry to be a 300/1200/10 rusher.

Yeah I think that 500 carries is a bit high as well. Maybe as a team they will aproach that number, but not for just Henry and McG. That is a awfull lot of carries to give just 2 guys. Others will inevitably touch the ball in the ground game. Hey, I'd love to see it though.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Here is a list of remaining RBs that might merit consideration at that point (actually, many of these are reaches IMO):HenryDillonBarberRudi JohnsonMartinBennettStaleyJulius JonesShippKevin JonesGarnerWestbrookThomas JonesYou're saying you think Henry's risk/reward value is worse than the alternatives?

It's worse than several of the alternatives, yes.Nobody's suggesting that Martin & Jordan will split carries in a 3:2 ratio, but you can pick up Martin in the mid-to-late third round. That's a better value than taking Henry in the early-to-mid second, IMO. I also think Thomas Jones in the late third is a better option than Henry in the early-to-mid second. And Garner in the fifth is, too.I think all of the RBs going in the early/middle second round (after Barlow and Faulk) are going a bit higher than they should. I'd take Moss/Harrison/Holt and maybe Culpepper/Manning over any of them.

 

[jurb26]

I think all of the RBs going in the early/middle second round (after Barlow and Faulk) are going a bit higher than they should. I'd take Moss/Harrison/Holt and maybe Culpepper/Manning over any of them.

.... but they always do.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

By your logic, Priest Holmes is the riskiest RB being taken in round 1 b/c the Chiefs drafted Larry Johnson in the 1st round last year.

Nobody's suggesting that Priest and LJ will split carries in a 3:2 ratio.If that really happens in Buffalo like the author if the initial blurb says, I don't see how Henry can live up to his draft position.If it doesn't happen, then never mind.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think all of the RBs going in the early/middle second round (after Barlow and Faulk) are going a bit higher than they should. I'd take Moss/Harrison/Holt and maybe Culpepper/Manning over any of them.

.... but they always do.

Exactly. Just cause ALL th ebacks in the mid-2nd are overvalued, that doesn't make Henry a greater "risk" than any of those other backs available in the mid-2nd.Someone slated SDavis as likely gone in the top-15 - Davis splitting carries 50-50 with Foster should be considered a significantly greater risk than what Henry will face from McG.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Most likely, is that Henry will start and get 75% of the touches along with all the goalline work this year.

Someone pointed out that Henry only got 77% of the carries last year. You think McGahee will only cut into Henry's carries by 2%?

 

[tommyGunZ]

I feel 100% confident stating this fact: Henry has the LEAST risk of any RB taken in the 2nd round this year. I am over people who think McGahee is ready for a 300+ carry season this year.Henry will start EVERY game as long as he is healthy, and he will get the bulk of the carries, including 95% of goalline work. McGahee will be brought along slowly...will likely be the primary 3rd down back and occasionally come into spell Henry for some series.Henry is a PROVEN stud who can handle the workload and will play injured. McGahee is a RB who had 1 great COLLEGE season over the past 4 or 5 years, has yet to take an NFL snap, and is recovering from one of the most horrific knee injuries suffered by a RB since Napoleon McCallum.I'm really starting to question the sanity of some posters around here.

This post is full of opinion with very little facts."Henry will start EVERY game"??????? How do you know? If a healthy McGahee would have been on the roster the past two years, Henry would be a backup right now. Henry's case of fumblitis didn't cost him his job because the backups in Buffalo couldn't break a flag football arm tackle.Anyone who thinks McGahee won't have an impact this year is not only mistaken, but blind. Henry's been a workhorse, but hasn't proven to be a gamebreaker that all teams look for. I don't see the Bills running the ball 500 times or gaining 2000 yards. Where is this Buffalo running game hype coming from? I've obviously missed the Ogden and Pace aquisitions.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Historically, how often have two RB's ran for more than 800 yards on the same team in the same season?In those seasons, how often has the back with the best #'s been a legit top 15-20 RB?Cleveland with Byner and Mack come to mind. Who else?

I know it's bad form to quote one's own post, but does anyone recall any other RB tandems that had 2 RBs finish in the top 20, as some are suggesting the Bills will have this year?Just curious, because it seems to me that some are predicting quite a historical running game from the Bills offense this year.

 

[JAA]

Historically, how often have two RB's ran for more than 800 yards on the same team in the same season?In those seasons, how often has the back with the best #'s been a legit top 15-20 RB?Cleveland with Byner and Mack come to mind. Who else?

I know it's bad form to quote one's own post, but does anyone recall any other RB tandems that had 2 RBs finish in the top 20, as some are suggesting the Bills will have this year?Just curious, because it seems to me that some are predicting quite a historical running game from the Bills offense this year.

I dont see that happening, but Jackson and Allen in Oak I think

 

[Marc Levin]

Most likely, is that Henry will start and get 75% of the touches along with all the goalline work this year.

Someone pointed out that Henry only got 77% of the carries last year. You think McGahee will only cut into Henry's carries by 2%?

29 rushes for QBs39 rushes for Burns4 rushes by WRs22 rushes by other RBs/FBs on the roster331 rushes in 15 games for Henry.425 rushes total (3 rushes are unaccounted for above). Henry had 77% of those carries - if he drops to around 300/305 carries, his portion of the pie must get smaller, regardless of how many total rushes the teams gets, but, IMO, that still won't drastically affect his fantasy productivity.

 

[Wolverine]

I think a lot of people are missing out on how often the Bills will run the ball. Mularkey was offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh for 3 years ; the Steelers ran the ball 446 , 512 and 580 times in those years for 1488 , 2120 and 2774yards. That averages out to 513 carries a year for 2127 yards. That`s without a running back as talented as Henry or McGahee. I see the Bills pounding the ball and using alot of intermediate and deep routes in the passing game. I think Henry finishes the year in the top 15 rbs and McGahee finishes top 30 also.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wolverine, I think 500 may be high, but if you are correct, I am even MORE confident predicting Henry to be a 300/1200/10 rusher.I think the argument that the pie gets significantly bigger than the 428 carries last year is something sliding right by everyone calling for a RBBC in Buffalo. 475-500 carries in Buffalo would mean running the ball 30+ times a game - which is a nice big ole pie to divide up between Henry and McG and could easily produce a top-15 back in Henry (300 carries, 1200 yards, 8-12 TDs) and a top-24 back in McG (170 carries, 50 catches, 1200 total yards, 4-7 TDs).

Wow. Henry barely put up those #'s last year, w/o McGahee.Again, every team in the NFL would like to run the ball 500 times. That would mean that they are winning far more often than they are losing. Are the Bills so improved that they will be dominating games in a fashion where they'll be running the clock out 4-6 times this year?They'll be dogs: NE (2), @ Miami, @ NYJ, @ Balt, St. Louis, @ Seattle, @ CincyThey'll be favorites: Miami, NYJ, Jax, AZ, @ Oak, Clev, @ SFHome against the Steelers will likely be even.I see the Bills 7-9, 8-8 at best. Certainly not the type of team that will be running the ball 500 times, espcially with Bledsoe, Moulds, and a #1 pick at WR on the outside.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I know it's bad form to quote one's own post, but does anyone recall any other RB tandems that had 2 RBs finish in the top 20, as some are suggesting the Bills will have this year?

Alstott & Dunn in 1998.

 

[tommyGunZ]

BTW, great thread guys.

 

[Marc Levin]

Wolverine, I think 500 may be high, but if you are correct, I am even MORE confident predicting Henry to be a 300/1200/10 rusher.I think the argument that the pie gets significantly bigger than the 428 carries last year is something sliding right by everyone calling for a RBBC in Buffalo. 475-500 carries in Buffalo would mean running the ball 30+ times a game - which is a nice big ole pie to divide up between Henry and McG and could easily produce a top-15 back in Henry (300 carries, 1200 yards, 8-12 TDs) and a top-24 back in McG (170 carries, 50 catches, 1200 total yards, 4-7 TDs).

Wow. Henry barely put up those #'s last year, w/o McGahee.Again, every team in the NFL would like to run the ball 500 times. That would mean that they are winning far more often than they are losing. Are the Bills so improved that they will be dominating games in a fashion where they'll be running the clock out 4-6 times this year?They'll be dogs: NE (2), @ Miami, @ NYJ, @ Balt, St. Louis, @ Seattle, @ CincyThey'll be favorites: Miami, NYJ, Jax, AZ, @ Oak, Clev, @ SFHome against the Steelers will likely be even.I see the Bills 7-9, 8-8 at best. Certainly not the type of team that will be running the ball 500 times, espcially with Bledsoe, Moulds, and a #1 pick at WR on the outside.

Missing an entire game, he had 331 carries and 1350 yards and 11 TDs. "Barely"? Care to rethink that statement?

 

[Wolverine]

Going into the season they remind me of the Cowboys last year. The Bills were 6-10 with a solid defence and an underachieveing offence. The Cowboy were 5-11 with a good defence and non existant offence. The Cowboys committed to the run last year and rushed the ball over 500 times even though it wasn`t always effective. It helps control the clock and helps keep the defence off the field. The Bills have much more talent at rb than Dallas and a coach with a good background in using the running game. It`s just speculation on my part but I see the Bills becoming a run first team.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Someone pointed out that Henry only got 77% of the carries last year.  You think McGahee will only cut into Henry's carries by 2%?

Henry's injury was a big part of that total TGunz...when healthy, his % of carries was much higher than 77% last year. If you look at the games he started and finished, I'd be shocked if the % wasn't over 90.

lol if you really can't tell the difference between the Priest/LJ situation and the Henry/McG situation.

actually' date=' lol at people who can't figure out that draft status isn't the sole determining factor of playing time.

Is Steven Jackson going to send Marshall Faulk to the bench this year? Are you afraid to draft Faulk b/c of Jackson?

Is Chris Perry going to beat out Rudi Johnson for the feature RB job in Cincinnati this year?

Is Tony Hollings going to beat out Domanick Davis for the feature RB job in Houston this year?

You get the point. Why is Henry the only feature RB who people think is about to lose his job? The only answer I can come up with is that people either (A) don't appreciate how tough of a runner Henry is and how much his coaches and teammates respect him, or that (B) they think McGahee is going to be the exact same player he was pre-injury 18 months post-surgery without having played competitive football for the past year.

Is it because McG was injured? It was almost two full years before the season is slated to begin. If he isn't healthy now I don't know that it will ever be. If it's just because he's not "seasoned", well I can't think of many RB's that became great but weren't ready to be great their first years in the NFL.In other words, either you think McGahee will be a star or you don't. This "not this year but next year" stuff is a reach IMO.

Not only did McGahee have his knee completely shredded, but he has also not played football for over a year. Not to mention, he was a 1-year starter at Miami so he's not exactly the most experienced player. If you don't think a RB will be rusty after a long layoff like that and need time to recover from a potentially career-threatening injury, then go ahead and project McGahee out to a huge season that sends Henry to the bench. I just don't seet that happening. As for RBs that became great but weren't ready in their first years in the NFL...how many RBs had their knee bend backwards in their last college game? What exactly is your comparison group here that tells you this player will be ready to carry the load just 18 months post-injury when training camp opens. Generally, players who tear their ACL tend to overcompensate for the injury, which can lead to other nagging injuries. Additionally, they tend to lack confidence when making quick, sharp cuts and it takes time for them to get comfortable running the way they used to. Most experts will tell you that it takes a RB 2 full years to recover from a torn ACL. In this case, McGahee will be about 20 months post-injury when the season begins. Additionally, he didn't just tear his ACL, he tore 2 other ligaments as well, which means this was a more severe injury than the other players you may be comparing him to. To expect a RB 20 months post-surgery with no NFL experience and 1 great college season to come out and steal the job from a proven veteran like Henry is just unrealistic, IMO. Call it a reach if you want, but I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts that McGahee is a much better back in 2005 than he will be in 2004.

I was responding to Aaron's comment of:

I know that was overstating things' date=' but it was done to counter the silliness that I was reading in this thread about Henry being such a risky selection. Outside of the top-12 or so RBs, I think Henry is about as safe a bet to finish in the top-15 as anyone out there.

They need to get him in there anyways' date=' just so they can see whether they need to cough up the big $$ for Henry or if they can let him go after this season...[/quote']Henry is under contract for next year at $1.25 M. That is not "big $$". In fact, now that Portis signed his big deal, Henry is probably one of the best value RBs in the entire league. And the Bills have him locked up for 2 more seasons. They really have all the leverage and should be in no hurry whatsoever to rush McGahee.

Nobody's suggesting that Priest and LJ will split carries in a 3:2 ratio.If that really happens in Buffalo like the author if the initial blurb says' date=' I don't see how Henry can live up to his draft position.

If it doesn't happen, then never mind.[/quote']

IMO, that author is about as credible as I would be if I said the Panthers expect Steven Davis to get 1200 yards this year and Deshaun Foster to get 800. Additionally, it talks about rushing yards for them...mentions nothing about carries. Assuming McGahee has a higher y/c, and Henry gets most of the short yardage and goalline work, Henry could very easily end up with twice as many carries as McGahee.

In fact, I already laid out the scenario where that 2000 yard projection could take place:

Henry: 300 carries, 4.3 y/c, 1290 yards

McGahee: 150 carries, 4.6 y/c, 690 yards

total = 1980 yards

are people out there really afraid of drafting a RB who is very likely to put up 1500+ total yards and double digit TDs in the middle 2nd round of a draft? Those are borderline RB1 numbers and he's being taken around the 15th or 16th RB. I see value with Henry this year, not risk.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

This post is full of opinion with very little facts."Henry will start EVERY game"??????? How do you know? If a healthy McGahee would have been on the roster the past two years, Henry would be a backup right now. Henry's case of fumblitis didn't cost him his job because the backups in Buffalo couldn't break a flag football arm tackle.Anyone who thinks McGahee won't have an impact this year is not only mistaken, but blind. Henry's been a workhorse, but hasn't proven to be a gamebreaker that all teams look for. I don't see the Bills running the ball 500 times or gaining 2000 yards. Where is this Buffalo running game hype coming from? I've obviously missed the Ogden and Pace aquisitions.

yes, those are my opinions. I didn't feel the need to clarify by stating IMO over and over again.I believe we are trying to project performance in 2004, are we not? Pretty hard to deal with facts when talking about what is going to happen in the future.I never said McGahee won't have an impact. In fact, I've been drafting him on several teams myself in the 10th round or later where I think he represents good value and as a Bills fan I've defended picking him more than anybody. The point being made here is that 2 RBs can co-exisit and both be successful in an offense that runs the ball consistently.But, you are clearly not well informed on the changes that have been made in Buffalo if you think it's going to be the same old, same old this year. Don't underestimate the effect that hiring Jim McNally will have on the play of the offensive line, nor the effect that replacing Kevin Gilbride with Mularkey and Clements will have. The Bills have a very good chance to run for 2000 yards as a team this year.

 

[Marc Levin]

lol if you really can't tell the difference between the Priest/LJ situation and the Henry/McG situation.

actually, lol at people who can't figure out that draft status isn't the sole determining factor of playing time.

I understood what you were saying regarding Larry Johnson and Priest, but knew it was also a poor analogy. The other statements you made along with that one clarify your point better. I can't stand it when folks say "why did they make McGahee a first round pick if they didn't plan to use him" They DO plan to use him - they will use him somewhat this year, and they will use him extensively next year.

are people out there really afraid of drafting a RB who is very likely to put up 1500+ total yards and double digit TDs in the middle 2nd round of a draft? Those are borderline RB1 numbers and he's being taken around the 15th or 16th RB. I see value with Henry this year, not risk.

If Henry gets much more than the 1200-1300 yards riushing we predict I'll be surprised. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have fewer than the 26 receptions he had in 2003 as the primary threat, so I don't think he will have close to 1500 total yards - the 10 or so TDs I think is a good prediciotn. I am confident predicting a 12-1300 total yard/10 total TDs season from Henry, but I don't really see much upside above those numbers.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Fair enough. If Henry goes for 1200-1300 on the ground with 10+ TDs, not only will I be shocked, but I'll admit to being totally wrong with the whole Buffalo running game.I don't think Henry is a top 15 RB on talent, and I guess that's why I see McGahee getting far more looks than most who are arguing in favor of Henry in this thread. If you believe that Henry's numbers are a product of opportunity (as I do), the McGahee situation is legit reason to downgrade Henry.If you're a Bills homer with Henry posters on your wall, I can understand the reluctance to downgrade Henry if one truely believes that the Bills will run for 2000+ on over 500 carries.Can't wait to revisit this topic over the season.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wolverine, I think 500 may be high, but if you are correct, I am even MORE confident predicting Henry to be a 300/1200/10 rusher.I think the argument that the pie gets significantly bigger than the 428 carries last year is something sliding right by everyone calling for a RBBC in Buffalo.  475-500 carries in Buffalo would mean running the ball 30+ times a game - which is a nice big ole pie to divide up between Henry and McG and could easily produce a top-15 back in Henry (300 carries, 1200 yards, 8-12 TDs) and a top-24 back in McG (170 carries, 50 catches, 1200 total yards, 4-7 TDs).

Wow. Henry barely put up those #'s last year, w/o McGahee.Again, every team in the NFL would like to run the ball 500 times. That would mean that they are winning far more often than they are losing. Are the Bills so improved that they will be dominating games in a fashion where they'll be running the clock out 4-6 times this year?They'll be dogs: NE (2), @ Miami, @ NYJ, @ Balt, St. Louis, @ Seattle, @ CincyThey'll be favorites: Miami, NYJ, Jax, AZ, @ Oak, Clev, @ SFHome against the Steelers will likely be even.I see the Bills 7-9, 8-8 at best. Certainly not the type of team that will be running the ball 500 times, espcially with Bledsoe, Moulds, and a #1 pick at WR on the outside.

Missing an entire game, he had 331 carries and 1350 yards and 11 TDs. "Barely"? Care to rethink that statement?

"barely" was probably a poor choice of words.

 

[Roasters]

I'm really surprised people don't see the writing on the wall here. Here is what will most likely happen if they do indeed plan on giving McGahee 40% of the carries. Henry will post around 4ypc and Mcgahee 5.5 and the Bills will gradually have McGahee as the main and only ball carrier, thus the flushing sound I hear is Travis Henrys stock spinning furiously down the crapper. McGahee owner here

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I understood what you were saying regarding Larry Johnson and Priest, but knew it was also a poor analogy. The other statements you made along with that one clarify your point better. I can't stand it when folks say "why did they make McGahee a first round pick if they didn't plan to use him" They DO plan to use him - they will use him somewhat this year, and they will use him extensively next year.

I didn't intend it to be used as an analogy, I used it point out the flaw in logic.Just b/c a RB was drafted in the 1st round does not automatically mean he's better than the incumbent RB or any RB drafted after him. The Bills saw a player in McGahee who they knew was considered a top-5 overall pick before the injury. They were willing to roll the dice and take a chance that he'll be able to fully recover.

BUT, since they had Henry coming off a Pro Bowl season and locked up for 3 more years at a moderate price, they could afford to have all the patience in the world with McGahee.

RBs tend to not last very long in the NFL. Henry may end up lasting shorter than most because of his hard, punishing running style. Thus, the Bills will be in great shape if they can get something for Henry in a trade after this year and McGahee is ready to take over as the feature back in 2005.

Looking at the FBG expert rankings, here are the RBs ranked after Henry, which some of the people in this thread must believe carry much lower risk:

Domanick Davis - hmmm, has a very talented RB in Tony Hollings backing him up who happened to be drafted with a higher selection than Davis was. If draft status meant everything, Hollings should be ready to steal carries from Davis this year. Throw in that Davis had some trouble staying healthy last year and is nowhere near as proven as Henry at this point, and I find it hard to believe that he is a lower risk player.

Stephen Davis - well, he's much older than Henry, has had injury problems in the past, and has a very highly regarded backup in Deshaun Foster pushing him for playing time. In fact, there have been official reports from Panthers coaches that Foster will likely eat into Davis' carries in order to keep him fresh later in the season. Much more risk of a 50/50 RBBC here than in Buffalo, IMO.

Corey Dillon - coming off an atriocious year where he couldn't stay healthy and was badly outplayed by former 4th round pick Rudi Johnson when he did play. The Patriots haven't had a very strong running game for awhile and tend to rely very heavily on Tom Brady's arm. Kevin Faulk is a quality 3rd down back and Cedric Cobbs is a pretty talented RB as well who could earn some carries. Dillon is a quality RB and he could do very well in New England, but there is certainly some risk involved here given his age and previous mileage.

Tiki Barber - new coach is less likely to put up with his fumbling problem than Fassel was. Ron Dayne is supposedly in best shape of his career and Coughlin appears willing to give him a chance in some type of RBBC. Barber has never been a great goalline back so lack of TD production greatly limits his upside. Henry clearly has more upside than this guy, and probably less risk simply b/c of the goalline love.

Rudi Johnson - Was rarely used backup to Dillon before an impressive breakout season last year in RBBC. Now, he has taken the role of starter, but the Bengals went out and spent a 1st round pick on Chris Perry. If Johnson is the answer, why spend a 1st round pick on this Perry? Bengals have said they like the fact that Perry can do everything - run, block, catch, etc. Johnson signed 1-year contract so Perry could be the RB of the future. Plenty of risk here if you think Perry is a quality RB.

Marcel Shipp - Was just demoted in June and replaced in the starting lineup by a 35-year old fossil. I think the risk here is obvious.

Curtis Martin - very consistent and a great all around RB, but gets pulled at the goalline, limiting his upside. There has been some talk of Jordan getting 1,000 yards this year as a backup before he enters free agency next year. That sure sounds like a RBBC to me, only the starter here doesn't get the easy 6pts every time the team gets inside the 5 yard line.

Saying Henry has more risk than maybe 1 or 2 of these guys is defensible. Saying he has more risk than all of them is simply ridiculous.

 

[Marc Levin]

I don't think Henry is a top 15 RB on talent, and I guess that's why I see McGahee getting far more looks than most who are arguing in favor of Henry in this thread. If you believe that Henry's numbers are a product of opportunity (as I do), the McGahee situation is legit reason to downgrade Henry.

I see his numbers as a product of sheer will and ability in the toughest of situations - when the D is keying on YOU (third down, red zone, fourth and short). Witness, once again, these impressive numbers:

he is an EXCELLENT power back - especially when sniffing the endzone. On 53 rushes by Henry inside the red zone, he produced 18 first downs and 10 TDs. In other words, just about every other carry by '03 Henry in the red zone produced something very good - either another first down inside the 20 yard line or a TD.Another note - Henry saw a spike in his productivity in several very important situations - when he got more than 20 carries his YPC spiked to 4.8, in the fourth quarter it spiked to 4.6, when ahead by less than 8 points it spiked to 5.3 YPC, and he was 3 for 4 on making first downs when rushing on fourth down. Sounds like a power back to me. Most impressively, the 18 times Henry ran the ball on third down in 2003, he had an insane 7.9 YPC average with 12 first downs and 1 TD. On 18 third down carries, 13 good things happened - 12 firsts, 1 TD and 7.9 YPC. THAT is incredible.

He may not make you cream your pants with his moves the way McG did in college, but he does the things that will keep his butt in there as a starter - he runs his best when they need him to. Now, I will definitely concede that if he puts the ball on the carpet an inordinate number of times or gets a broken leg again, he'll be sitting and McG will be starting, but lack of talent isn't what'll keep him off the field.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Fair enough. If Henry goes for 1200-1300 on the ground with 10+ TDs, not only will I be shocked, but I'll admit to being totally wrong with the whole Buffalo running game.I don't think Henry is a top 15 RB on talent, and I guess that's why I see McGahee getting far more looks than most who are arguing in favor of Henry in this thread. If you believe that Henry's numbers are a product of opportunity (as I do), the McGahee situation is legit reason to downgrade Henry.If you're a Bills homer with Henry posters on your wall, I can understand the reluctance to downgrade Henry if one truely believes that the Bills will run for 2000+ on over 500 carries.Can't wait to revisit this topic over the season.

I'm an admitted Bills fan and homer, but I really couldn't care less who totes the rock for them this year. I want and expect the Bills to do well, but I'm going to be just as happy if it's Henry as if it is McGahee. I care about the Bills winning games above all else. If McGahee is fully healed, ready to carry the load, and gives them the best chance to win, then so be it. I'm very excited to see what he can do and expect he'll bring an added dimension to the offense this year. In handicapping the situation, however, I think the odds are against him breaking out this year. Everything I've seen from Henry thus far tells me he is likely to play his ### off this year with McGahee around. He plays with a huge chip on his shoulder and I would not want to bet against him. McGahee at this point is all potential - I'm as excited by his potential as anybody, but I really believe 2005 will be his chance to shine.I believe my view on this matter is actually rather objective and logical. I've thought through these issues as much as anybody, and I really think what I've laid out in this thread is what is most likely to happen. I just don't see the uncertainty in Buffalo that so many others seem to be finding. There are plenty of other situations one could ask me about and I would admit to not having the faintest ####### clue. But, this is pretty clear, IMO and I'm perfectly willing to stand behind my predictions.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I was wondering what you had to say about Willis McGahee's recent development. Do you think he'll be ready to take some carries this season or will we have to wait another year to judge if he was worth a first-rounder?

--Patrick

Gauging McGahee's development is difficult, if not impossible, because all anyone has seen him do with the Buffalo Bills so far is stretch and run around in a jersey and shorts.

I will say that when McGahee does run -- and juke imaginary defenders in the open field -- it is an impressive sight. He looks extremely quick. He looks highly explosive. And, perhaps most important, he shows great confidence in the knee on which he underwent reconstructive surgery before the Bills made him their first-round choice in 2003.

Nevertheless, there is no way to determine the extent of McGahee's readiness to carry the football this season until he does so in pads during training-camp practices next month. He needs to take hits and make sharp cuts while juking actual defenders trying to put him on his back before anyone can even attempt to conclude whether he can perform at a minimum level necessary for the NFL -- let alone up to the lofty expectations for a first-rounder. McGahee acknowledged as much when he told reporters recently, "All I'm looking forward to is putting on the pads and practicing. That's where you find out where everybody is."

And even then, he will have other major hurdles to clear in scrimmages and preseason games.

Meanwhile, the Bills already have an accomplished and talented back in Travis Henry. If, in a game environment, McGahee quickly demonstrates the skills that offered superstar-caliber promise before his injury, the Bills would have two premier backs that would be satisfied with nothing less than getting the greatest number of carries. One won't be happy. For a year, that might not be such a bad problem to have (provided the coaches prevent it from becoming a divisive issue), but the Bills obviously would be forced to do something about it in 2005.

Ask Vic CarucciJust figured I'd post this for any interested readers as Vic is a respected former Buffalo writer. I tend to agree with him...having 2 premiere backs could work for a season, but they'd have to make a move prior to 2005. I think McGahee would have to play out of this world or Henry would have to play worse than he has in the past for a shift in power to take place as early as this season.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Who is the best running back in the AFC East? Ask anyone and you'll probably hear Ricky Williams or Curtis Martin or Corey Dillon, who's now with the Patriots. But the truth is Travis Henry had three of the top five rushing performances by an AFC East back last season. With Willis McGahee now healthy, the Bills will pack an excellent one-two punch.

Pat KirwanOn a team that finished the year ranked 30th in total offense, threw early and often despite having a porous offensive line, a shell shocked QB, and no healthy playmakers at WR, Henry ended up with 3 of the top-5 rushing performances in the division.

Assuming the team will be significantly improved this year (they can't really get any worse), it should be apparent that Henry will have a very good chance to equal or possibly even improve on last year's numbers.

 

[tommyGunZ]

But, this is pretty clear, IMO and I'm perfectly willing to stand behind my predictions.

Can't ask for anything more.The fact that you're a Bills homer who follows them closely will make it even more sweet to bump this baby when McGahee's getting the bulk by week 9.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Wondering about Willis McGahee, are you? Curious as to how that reconstructed knee's coming along? I hear you. So Thursday I attended the Buffalo Bills voluntary organized team activity alongside the field house. What do you know? Almost everyone showed and a practice broke out. I watched McGahee join his teammates in an extended round of stretching. There wasn't a grimace to be seen. Quite the opposite. I'm pretty sure the man cracked a few smiles while folding himself like a lawn chair. My eyes never left McGahee's legs once the running backs gathered to dart over and around a series of obstacles. The rumored hitch in his gait? If that's a hitch then Maurice Greene limps his way through the 100. You'd love to move forward as quickly as McGahee goes sideways. I thought that maybe I was on to something when McGahee knelt upon his right knee during a rest on the sidelines. Why the right knee instead of the surgically repaired left? Could he be hiding something? Is this a sign of discomfort? But then I noticed Travis Henry on his right knee. And Antonio Brown on his right knee. False alarm. The offense began running plays, and McGahee got his fair share of carries backing up Henry. One time he broke through the defense and completed the run by O.J.-juking a couple of imaginary defenders. Is this what a running back does on a cool and blustery June day if he's worried about the state of his knee? Poor McGahee. The man works like a jackhammer to get himself back into the first round of the 2003 draft yet doubts persist whether he'll re-emerge as the McGahee of old. All anybody wants to talk about is whether he's 80 percent, or 90 percent, or capable of giving that vital mathematical anomaly, 110 percent. McGahee says he's fine. He's eager to confront the next hurdle, which comes when training camp begins, and he's tackled hard, and he gets back on his feet and everybody sighs with relief. "All I'm looking forward to is putting on the pads and practicing," he said. "That's where you find out where everybody is." "Right now, for what we're doing, he's full speed," head coach Mike Mularkey said. "For me, personally, I don't think there's going to be a difference once we get rolling." McGahee ought to spare himself the onslaught of these tedious questions. He might as well take out a billboard and cover it with a snappy slogan, something like "Guess Who's Back?" But wait! What's this? There it is, that very slogan, tattooed on the left side of McGahee's neck. "It's just something I got, something I wanted," McGahee said. "It ain't no big deal. You can take it how you want to take it." I take it that McGahee harbors no anxiety. "Most people, when they have major knee surgery, they worry about if they cut wrong what's going to happen," McGahee said. "I don't worry about none of that. I just go out there and go. If it happens it happens. You can't stop it." McGahee has one other visible tattoo. It's on the right side of his neck and depicts two hands brought together in prayer. Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too. Tom Donahoe? A tattoo artist? Since when? What I learned at Thursday's voluntary team activity is that McGahee is right where you'd hope he would be. "I be ready to rock," is how he put it. Meanwhile, in other developments, Eric Moulds dropped two passes Thursday, equaling his yearly quota. What's a Bills fan without something to worry about?

another good article on the subject from the Buffalo NewsAs a Bills fan (and McGahee owner in some leagues), I hope he's ready to rock. The homer in me wants him to be the McGahee of old as soon as the preseason begins. But, that still seems unrealistic to me, and unlike a lot of people here, I have a lot of respect for what Henry is capable of. If these guys are both playing at a high level, 2004 will be good times indeed.

 

[Roasters]

Holy crap Aaron, got enough to say to pump up Henry? You trying to unload the bum in your league? I find it odd how wet Henry gets you since all the other Buffalo fans I speak with say Henry is ... and I quote "A product of the system who lacks talent"... Please take note that I am quoting Buffalo fans, that is not my well informed opinion cause I don't have the Direct TV ticket so it is rare I get to see him play. How come you're the lone Henry supporter from Buffalo? Where is Burning Sensation, he think Henry blows fat chunks and he's a huge Buffalo homer. When the turd that is Henry gets flushed down the crapper and McGahee is a superstar will you still pimp Travis?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

most Buffalo fans are morons, so you should take what they say with a grain of salt."product of the system"? if you only knew how bad that system has been in the past few years, you wouldn't be saying that.I'm tired of arguing this. The Bills were a HORRIBLE offense last year, and the only bright spot was Travis Henry. He put up the numbers he did while often facing 8 or 9 guys in the box. The Bills were the 30th ranked offense last year. 30th!!! Yet, Henry finished as the #11 ranked fantasy RB. Product of the system makes no sense when you are the only legitimate weapon on that team who is capable of doing anything.Henry isn't a flashy runner that gets people excited. He's a blue collar, workhorse back that will never avoid contact and always fall forward for a few extra yards. He's clearly not the most talented runner, but his will and determination are as great as any other RB in the league.Just look at the numbers Marc posted earlier about what he did in close games, in the red zone, and in the 4th quarter. The two biggest knocks on Henry are his penchant for fumbles and his lack of breakaway speed. Other than that, he's about as solid a RB as you'll find and he's a great fit for a team that wants to consistently move the chains and run a ball control offense, which is exactly what the Bills plan to do this year.

 

[Gridiron King]

I have Willis McGahee in several keeper leagues this year. Would you keep him for 7th. 9th & 11th round picks in 12 team leagues?

 

[Marc Levin]

Forget it Aaron - Henry's a talentless hack who was propped up by a system that allowed him a 7.9 YPC average on third downs. All system.Oh, and it was the system, and the system alone, that made Henry stronger over the course of the game - better after 20 carries and better in the fourth quarter. All system and opportunity, of course, not talent.And, the coaching staff doesn't notice the numbers I posted above - they just look at college ability and draft position when deciding who to play in what situations. They certainly ignore leadership qualities and favor raw talent.Finally, since everyone in the world sees that McGahee is the more flashy talented back, there is no way the Bills would WANT to highlight a workhorse back that helps grind out the game and already knows the o-lineman and has experience. The system has been craving an explosive back who hasn't yet been hampered by the "anchorlike" weight of actual NFL experience.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Forget it Aaron - Henry's a talentless hack who was propped up by a system that allowed him a 7.9 YPC average on third downs. All system.Oh, and it was the system, and the system alone, that made Henry stronger over the course of the game - better after 20 carries and better in the fourth quarter. All system and opportunity, of course, not talent.And, the coaching staff doesn't notice the numbers I posted above - they just look at college ability and draft position when deciding who to play in what situations. They certainly ignore leadership qualities and favor raw talent.Finally, since everyone in the world sees that McGahee is the more flashy talented back, there is no way the Bills would WANT to highlight a workhorse back that helps grind out the game and already knows the o-lineman and has experience. The system has been craving an explosive back who hasn't yet been hampered by the "anchorlike" weight of actual NFL experience.

:rotflmao: igskinp:

 

[tommyGunZ]

Forget it Aaron - Henry's a talentless hack who was propped up by a system that allowed him a 7.9 YPC average on third downs. All system.Oh, and it was the system, and the system alone, that made Henry stronger over the course of the game - better after 20 carries and better in the fourth quarter. All system and opportunity, of course, not talent.And, the coaching staff doesn't notice the numbers I posted above - they just look at college ability and draft position when deciding who to play in what situations. They certainly ignore leadership qualities and favor raw talent.Finally, since everyone in the world sees that McGahee is the more flashy talented back, there is no way the Bills would WANT to highlight a workhorse back that helps grind out the game and already knows the o-lineman and has experience. The system has been craving an explosive back who hasn't yet been hampered by the "anchorlike" weight of actual NFL experience.

Draft Henry in the early to mid 2nd since you're ABSOLUTELY 100% positive that Henry will get his 1300 and 10.All people are doing is pointing out the obvious - that Henry has to share now.Henry's upside is RB 10-11 (as he's proved the past two seasons) and his downside is RB 30. Obviously Henry is worth the risk at some point, we just disagree as to where that point is. I think it's a round later than you and Aaron.You can quote all the 2003 numbers you want, the fact is, the situation has changed.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

You can quote all the 2003 numbers you want, the fact is, the situation has changed.

so, which RBs have moved ahead of him on your draft board?The ones I listed above? What is their downside?Hasn't the situation changed for Marshall Faulk? For Rudi Johnson? For Corey Dillon? For Tiki Barber? For Marcel Shipp? For Stephen Davis?very few situations remain the same from year to year. Your opinion on Henry is well known, but why do you feel these other RBs carry so much less risk than him? Are they all superstars, while Henry is just a talentless scrub?

 

[JRussell_MD2B]

Regardless of where Henry should be picked, lets say you end up with him at the end of the 2nd or 3rd round. Is i worth it to handicap him with McG in a later round or would that be too expensive? Secondly, lets say the Bills season does not go as well as they plan, and they end up without a shot to make the playoffs. Does Henry then ride the pine while they prepare McG for next year? It seems like this could become an even bigger issue as this would coincide at about the same time many of us would be playing fantasy playoffs.

 

[Tau837]

Here is a list of remaining RBs that might merit consideration at that point (actually, many of these are reaches IMO):

Henry

Dillon

Barber

Rudi Johnson

Martin

Bennett

Staley

Julius Jones

Shipp

Kevin Jones

Garner

Westbrook

Thomas Jones

You're saying you think Henry's risk/reward value is worse than the alternatives?

It's worse than several of the alternatives, yes.Nobody's suggesting that Martin & Jordan will split carries in a 3:2 ratio, but you can pick up Martin in the mid-to-late third round. That's a better value than taking Henry in the early-to-mid second, IMO. I also think Thomas Jones in the late third is a better option than Henry in the early-to-mid second. And Garner in the fifth is, too.

I think all of the RBs going in the early/middle second round (after Barlow and Faulk) are going a bit higher than they should. I'd take Moss/Harrison/Holt and maybe Culpepper/Manning over any of them.

Notice that I said 18 picks would be gone, of which 14 would be RBs. I am assuming Culpepper, Manning, Moss, and Harrison are the 4 non-RBs.Now, I wouldn't argue with taking Holt and coming back with Martin or one of the others, provided they are available in the third. And I'm sure there may be a few other scenarios that would make sense as well.

I was really responding to the fact that taking Henry in the mid second is not bad value in comparison to taking a different RB.