Henry / McGahee to both get the ball (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

If he heals well and proves to be the player he was in college than why is this such an outlandish thought?

Hehe - it's not. If that's the way others in this thread presented it, we'd have a mellow discussion. This got heated by a couple of opinions that: 1) have McG eating into Henry's production as a foregone conclusion; 2) see Henry as a "huge" risk because of that assumption.I see McGahee's presence significantly eating into Henry's production - my projections have him with minimal receiving numbers - and one less TD than last year, even though he is expected to play all 16 games, due to no receiving TDs.I ALSO see a risk in him losing carries late in the year, and I see a selection of Henry as requiring a selection of McGahee as a handcuff. So, IMO, I have already accounted for McGahee actively impacting Henry's numbers. If McGahee tore his leg off tomorrow and was unavailable for 2004, I would elevate Henry to a first round prospect - as it stands, I think he begins accumulating value in the draft after the first 14 RBs are selected, and has real nice value at his current ADP of RB17 and 2.09

I actually agree with your thought process and Floyds much more than I'm letting on to be honest. Its just that I too see a lot of people like you said seem to be presenting it as if McG has got NO CHANCE of doing anything. This is simply shortsighted IMO. Either way, thanks for the clarification.

 

[ardethan]

The facts are McGahee hasn't been unijured since his junior year in high school.

Are you arguing that McGahee's injury proclivity caused that hit in the OSU game? I call that a fluke. Guys like Deuce and Jamal and Fred T also have injury histories, but I wouldn't avoid them.I don't understand all the McGahee bashing, honestly. He was arguably the best college RB in a long while (put up better stats on a worse team than Portis). Sure, he could suck. So could Kevin Jones. So could Stephen Jackson. So could Julius Jones. But I like the odds that he's a good player, and if he's a good player, I like the odds that he proves it in his rookie year (good RB's generally do).

 

[Marc Levin]

I don't understand all the McGahee bashing, honestly.

Outside of Floyd, who's bashing McGahee?If you look back through this thread, you'll see that I have some really sweet numbers projected for McG this year - those numbers simply don't severely impact Henry's ability go 1200/10 on the ground.I pointed out in some other threads that I believe the infusion of McG actually helps out Henry's rush numbers - when he makes that one big 20 yard play at a key point in the game, Henry gets another set of downs to improve on his rushing numbers.

 

[Floyd The Barber]

jurb26 wrote:

Wow, your reaching with that comparison. Chandler had problems with concusions which have a very tangible habit of repeating themsleves. Much more so than McG's knee probs. Even still you have avoided the fact that McG has been able to recover perfectly fine several times already from knee injuries. Why I must ask you agian, is this time so much different in your eyes.

OK. Tell it to Marshall Faulk...The main point with McGahee isn't that he won't become a great back, in time. It's that the vast majority of RBs who have suffered an ACL injury take a full two seasons to recover. And as Aaron Rudnicki pointed out, McG tore THREE ligaments.But hey, whatever. If 50% of the sharks think McG will "recover just fine" as he has multiple times in the past.. Get on with your bad self! I'm banking that Henry continues to be the heart and soul of a team that is now committed to the establishing the run. Henry may be less talented than a healthy McG, but there's a lot more to being annointed the starter than talent alone. It's the very reason Emmitt beat out Shipp. But believe what you will.Cheers!

 

[jurb26]

OK. Tell it to Marshall Faulk...The main point with McGahee isn't that he won't become a great back, in time. It's that the vast majority of RBs who have suffered an ACL injury take a full two seasons to recover. And as Aaron Rudnicki pointed out, McG tore THREE ligaments.But hey, whatever. If 50% of the sharks think McG will "recover just fine" as he has multiple times in the past.. Get on with your bad self! I'm banking that Henry continues to be the heart and soul of a team that is now committed to the establishing the run. Henry may be less talented than a healthy McG, but there's a lot more to being annointed the starter than talent alone. It's the very reason Emmitt beat out Shipp. But believe what you will.Cheers!

A couple of things.For 1, I think you are confusing that yes it takes approx 2 YEARS to recover from the injury. Not the 2 seasons that you are reffering to. Come the start of next season it will have been about 20 months post injury. Pretty darn close to 2 years. On top of that, I agree that Henry WILL be the primary guy in the O. He will unless/untill McG proves/earns that right. Either way though McG WILL see action. Just that McG could prove to be better and increase his role over time.As for E. Smith, yeah he is labled the starter, but untill the 1st game I will not bank on the fact that he has solidified that role.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Looks like some sanity and logic has returned to this thread. I disagree with a lot of statements made in this thread, but I'm just tired of arguing about this. If some of you guys really think Henry is a risky player in the middle of the 2nd round, then go ahead and let him slide to your leaguemate. I'm fairly certain you'll end up regretting it.As for Marc's claims that nobody is claiming Henry is a viable RB1 or top-RB2, well, I believe I've done that already and I'll continue to stand by it.As long as Henry stays healthy and doesn't start coughing up the football on a regular basis, McGahee is and will remain the backup for 2004. Henry has a very good chance at 1400+ total yards and over 10 TDs. His receiving numbers will keep him from rising to elite status, but he'll still finish in the #11 to #15 range among fantasy RBs. McGahee will see some time and hopefully do well, but I doubt he gets more than 150 carries, and I seriously doubt his production will have a significant impact on Henry's numbers.

 

[jurb26]

Looks like some sanity and logic has returned to this thread. I disagree with a lot of statements made in this thread, but I'm just tired of arguing about this. If some of you guys really think Henry is a risky player in the middle of the 2nd round, then go ahead and let him slide to your leaguemate. I'm fairly certain you'll end up regretting it.As for Marc's claims that nobody is claiming Henry is a viable RB1 or top-RB2, well, I believe I've done that already and I'll continue to stand by it.As long as Henry stays healthy and doesn't start coughing up the football on a regular basis, McGahee is and will remain the backup for 2004. Henry has a very good chance at 1400+ total yards and over 10 TDs. His receiving numbers will keep him from rising to elite status, but he'll still finish in the #11 to #15 range among fantasy RBs. McGahee will see some time and hopefully do well, but I doubt he gets more than 150 carries, and I seriously doubt his production will have a significant impact on Henry's numbers.

I'm sorry Aaron, but if you are not even willing to admit that there is a POSSIBILTIY of McG dipping into Henry's numbers, at least a little bit. Then I think you are one of the group who as you say: "lacks sanity"I understand that you are of the conviction that this will not happen. But to say it is out of the question, sure to not happen, or has 0% probability is simply rediculous.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

jurb, I fully admit it is possible. I just happen to believe it is unlikely. I also think people are overstating the risk here, by a great deal.Allow me to explain myself using Marc's hypothetical example...If McGahee tore his leg off tomorrow, I'd project Henry as a top-10 RB. As things stand, I project Henry to finish in the #11 to #15 range. I also believe it is highly unlikely that Henry finishes outside of the top-20 among fantasy RBs, barring serious injury.Point being, I can project a solid season from McGahee without dropping my projections for Henry very much for the reasons that have been discussed in this thread ad nauseum.

 

[jurb26]

jurb, I fully admit it is possible. I just happen to believe it is unlikely. I also think people are overstating the risk here, by a great deal.Allow me to explain myself using Marc's hypothetical example...If McGahee tore his leg off tomorrow, I'd project Henry as a top-10 RB. As things stand, I project Henry to finish in the #11 to #15 range. I also believe it is highly unlikely that Henry finishes outside of the top-20 among fantasy RBs, barring serious injury.Point being, I can project a solid season from McGahee without dropping my projections for Henry very much for the reasons that have been discussed in this thread ad nauseum.

Ahhh.... I see

 

[Marc Levin]

jurb, I fully admit it is possible. I just happen to believe it is unlikely. I also think people are overstating the risk here, by a great deal.Allow me to explain myself using Marc's hypothetical example...If McGahee tore his leg off tomorrow, I'd project Henry as a top-10 RB. As things stand, I project Henry to finish in the #11 to #15 range. I also believe it is highly unlikely that Henry finishes outside of the top-20 among fantasy RBs, barring serious injury.Point being, I can project a solid season from McGahee without dropping my projections for Henry very much for the reasons that have been discussed in this thread ad nauseum.

Ahhh.... I see

As much as he said he stated he didn't agree with me regarding whether anyone was predicting Henry as a RB1/top RB2, Aaron and I are actually very much symaptico on the fantasy outlook for Henry in 2004.Aaron sees Henry doing a bit more than I do overall, but we agree McGahee can have a HUGE i8mpact, be a great offensive player for the Bills, be used extensively from the backup role, and STILL not significantly alter Henry's fantasy outlook.Heck, I predict a 1G total yardage, 6 TD season from McG and still see Henry as a top-15 RB.