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He's never gonna get that this year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter chris1969
- Start date
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MLBrandow
Guest
Well, it makes a lot of sense if you think about it. Kickers generally have big years because their red zone offenses suck. Normally if a team's red zone offense sucks, they will make an effort to upgrade it in the offseason.Problem is, do you consider adding a bunch of very large guys and a RB to be the key? It makes sense on the superficial level--missing RB, bad OL, no-brainer...Especially in this situation, IMO. The conditions that made his monster year last year just aren't in line to even come close to repeating.
But when you take a pass-dominant offense and try to shift it to a run-dominant offense in one offseason, and add to it a pass-happy coach who only once has ranked in the top half of the league in rushing attempts in 12 years (in '92), but 9 times in passing....
I don't see much of a drop-off or change from last year, despite the additions. I see them trying to run more, but they'll end up being glad they signed a pass-blocking RB IMO.
Certainly we can expect a lower ceiling, but I think that to expect some cataclysmic drop-off would be giving the cards a lot more credit than they have earned or will earn.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
It's just for kickers, but it just reemphasizes (very well) why you should always wait on kickers.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Don't know.but I do know that unlike other players kickers don't really control their own destiny. Skill position players know that they will still get their passes/rushes/receptions/opportunities, whereas a kicker has to hang out until they call him out for a kick.
I suspect that the AFTER a PK had a Top 25 scoring season that the dropoff would be in line percentage wise (say 25%). The difference is that only once did a kicker hit 130 points again the following year.
If you look at the top 25 seasons (at least fantasy wise) at each position, some people made the list again the following year (I wrote an article on this last year)--certainly a lot more than just one player.
The Finist
Footballguy
No, I dont see him going over 1300 and 6 combined. His knee wont let him.
CalBear
Footballguy
When a player has had a truly exceptional season, it is unlikely that he will repeat it in the next year; this is true at any position. I think Seattle is a good team and Alexander is a solid RB, but after a 27 TD season I'd be willing to bet on a 25% reduction in scoring this year. You'll probably find a similar regression in WRs who get 100 receptions, and you've already found one in RBs who get 400 touches. So the question isn't so much, will Rackers get fewer FGs in 2006 than he did in 2005? That's a very solid bet. The question really is, should we temper our enthusiasm for Rackers any more than we do for Alexander or Steve Smith? (Aside from the fact that he's a kicker, and we're not really enthusiastic about kickers in the first place).
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If you do a search you can find the discussion on kickers following up great seasons.As I stated then, the difference is that with players like SA, Manning, Smith, etc. that even if they lose 25% of their production, they still are in the elite at their position.
If a PK loses 25% of his production, he could go from being at or near the #1 kicker to not even worth playing for fantasy purposes.
