History of rookies taking over at QB after sitting (1 Viewer)

[JAA]

Im wondering if we can predict the chances of Rivers using past history. Im having a hard time finding examples of QBs who were drafted, for the most part sat, and then started for a team in the next season or 2.

JP Losman

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2004 buf |   4 |     3     5  60.0    32   6.4   0   1 |     2    15   0 || 2005 buf |   9 |   113   228  49.6  1340   5.9   8   8 |    31   154   0 |Carson Palmer

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2004 cin |  14 |   263   432  60.9  2897   6.7  18  18 |    18    47   1 |

Daunte Culpepper

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 1999 min |   1 |     0     0   0.0     0   0.0   0   0 |     3     6   0 || 2000 min |  16 |   297   474  62.7  3937   8.3  33  16 |    90   470   7 |

Brian Griese

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 1998 den |   1 |     1     3  33.3     2   0.7   0   1 |     4    -4   0 || 1999 den |  14 |   261   452  57.7  3032   6.7  14  14 |    46   138   2 |

Brett Favre

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 1991 atl |   2 |     0     5   0.0     0   0.0   0   2 |     0     0   0 || 1992 gnb |  15 |   302   471  64.1  3227   6.9  18  13 |    47   198   1 |

Other than Daunte (and Losman uke), it looks like their first season after sitting was quite pedestrian. Closer to 50% TD/Int ratio than not. I do find it interesting how above average their Comp%'s are.I wonder if there is any relationship between how well their RBs, WR's, DSTs faired at that time also.

JAA

 

[Despyzer]

Edit: n/m

 

[Despyzer]

Edit: Having a really bad day. I'll get it together; I promise.

How about Chad Pennnington?

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2000 nyj |   2 |     2     5  40.0    67  13.4   1   0 |     1     0   0 || 2001 nyj |   2 |    10    20  50.0    92   4.6   1   0 |     1    11   0 || 2002 nyj |  15 |   276   399  69.2  3120   7.8  22   6 |    29    49   2 |

 

[Big Score]

Steve McNair?

Michael Vick?

 

[msommer]

JP Losman

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Guys who were fairly high draft picks who started after spending a year or two on the bench in the same offense are: Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and JP Losman. Three out of four did well. (Edit: McNair, too, as Big Score pointed out, but that's further back than I was looking.)

Since 2000, here are the guys who were first-year starters on decent teams, replacing established vets who had done well in the same offense: Carson Palmer (replacing Kitna), Marc Bulger (replacing Warner), Michael Vick (replacing Chandler), Tom Brady (replacing Bledsoe), and Daunte Culpepper (replacing Cunningham and George). All of them did well.

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

 

[Big Score]

Guys who were fairly high draft picks who started after spending a year or two on the bench in the same offense are: Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and JP Losman. Three out of four did well. (Edit: McNair, too, as Big Score pointed out, but that's further back than I was looking.)

Since 2000, here are the guys who were first second-year starters on decent teams, replacing established vets who had done well in the same offense: Carson Palmer (replacing Kitna), Marc Bulger (replacing Warner), Michael Vick (replacing Chandler), Tom Brady (replacing Bledsoe), and Daunte Culpepper (replacing Cunningham and George). All of them did well.

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

Just corrected what was an obvious typo as all of those guys (Palmer, Bulger, Vick, Brady & Culpepper) were second year starters - not first year starters.

 

[Urinal Mint]

While the WRs aren't spectacular, Rivers will have the most beneficial piece in place to take pressure off of him: a solid running game. It helps having Gates as a safety valve, too.

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

 

[TheFanatic]

Can Warner and Trent Green be added to this discussion? Both guys rode the pine for a while before getting a starting gig. Not just a year or two and neither was a high draft pick. What about Jake Delhomme? DId he start his rookie year?

 

[Big Score]

Shoot, we may as well add Brunell, Hasselbeck & Brooks to the list.

 

[JAA]

I was specifically looking for players who were drafted as replacements (the future) and sat the bench for 1 or 2 seasons. Im not sure Vick counts, be played a lot mid season. Same with McNabb and McNair.

 

[David Yudkin]

I spelled all this out in a faceoff for Rivers . . . not sure why it hasn't been posted yet.

I don't have the info at my finger tips, but the bottom line was that once the players took over they did very well ppg wise.

Most people looked at their seasons totals and rankings and concluded they weren't very good. But remember that many times players took over in the middle of the season. And they may have had several games in mop up roles or relief, so the unscrubbed stats are very misleading. Not many of the QB started from Week One-and that certainly will help Rivers in this case.

Yes, there have been some guys that didn't do great first times out as a starter (Trent Dilfer comes to mind), but the difference with SD is that they are starting with a solid offense and have fared well passing the ball the past few seasons.

Many times when a new QB takes over they inherit a team that ranks Bottom 5 in their passing output. This is not the case with the Chargers.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm convinced that QB ability isn't that important, but the ability of the other 21 guys on the field is very important. There's a certain level of competency your QB must have, but an average QB on a great offense against a bad defense will look like the best QB in the league more often than not.

I'd project a young QB based a lot more on his teammates and his SOS than his regular old ability, at least for FF purposes.

 

[Big Score]

Im not sure Vick counts, be played a lot mid season. Same with McNabb and McNair.

Vick played a couple of series here & there for Crystal Chandelier on trick plays his 1st year and only got 3 actual starts at the end of the year with a 113 total pass attempts.McNair also had Crystal Chandelier in front of him and only got 3 actual starts at the end of his rookie year for a total of 80 pass attempts.

McNabb? No argument. He got quite a few starts and had 216 total pass attempts.

But if you want to exempt all 3 from consideration that's your call. After all this is your thread and you know the parameters.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Rumor has it, some research was done in this thread with aid from the data dominator (which contained a few snafus because of certain people being rookies and logging zero pass attempts, so the data dominator didn't think they were a rookie that year...but was corrected in a later post which had no effect on the results).

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...3entry5114673

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Guys who were fairly high draft picks who started after spending a year or two on the bench in the same offense are: Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and JP Losman. Three out of four did well. (Edit: McNair, too, as Big Score pointed out, but that's further back than I was looking.)

Since 2000, here are the guys who were first second-year starters on decent teams, replacing established vets who had done well in the same offense: Carson Palmer (replacing Kitna), Marc Bulger (replacing Warner), Michael Vick (replacing Chandler), Tom Brady (replacing Bledsoe), and Daunte Culpepper (replacing Cunningham and George). All of them did well.

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

Just corrected what was an obvious typo as all of those guys (Palmer, Bulger, Vick, Brady & Culpepper) were second year starters - not first year starters.

A first-year starter is somebody who is starting for the first time. It's not a synonym for rookie.

 

[David Yudkin]

Guys who were fairly high draft picks who started after spending a year or two on the bench in the same offense are: Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and JP Losman. Three out of four did well. (Edit: McNair, too, as Big Score pointed out, but that's further back than I was looking.)

Since 2000, here are the guys who were first second-year starters on decent teams, replacing established vets who had done well in the same offense: Carson Palmer (replacing Kitna), Marc Bulger (replacing Warner), Michael Vick (replacing Chandler), Tom Brady (replacing Bledsoe), and Daunte Culpepper (replacing Cunningham and George). All of them did well.

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

Just corrected what was an obvious typo as all of those guys (Palmer, Bulger, Vick, Brady & Culpepper) were second year starters - not first year starters.

A first-year starter is somebody who is starting for the first time. It's not a synonym for rookie.

First time starter is probably a better way to describe Rivers.

 

[Mike Herman]

I spelled all this out in a faceoff for Rivers . . . not sure why it hasn't been posted yet.

I don't have the info at my finger tips, but the bottom line was that once the players took over they did very well ppg wise.

Most people looked at their seasons totals and rankings and concluded they weren't very good. But remember that many times players took over in the middle of the season. And they may have had several games in mop up roles or relief, so the unscrubbed stats are very misleading. Not many of the QB started from Week One-and that certainly will help Rivers in this case.

Yes, there have been some guys that didn't do great first times out as a starter (Trent Dilfer comes to mind), but the difference with SD is that they are starting with a solid offense and have fared well passing the ball the past few seasons.

Many times when a new QB takes over they inherit a team that ranks Bottom 5 in their passing output. This is not the case with the Chargers.

I did some vaguely similar reseach for the other half of the Rivers faceoff. Following is the year end fantasy rank (in their first year as the primary starter) for the last 20 QBs drafted in the first round:1 Culpepper

3 Michael Vick

4 Eli Manning

9 Peyton Manning

14 Chad Pennington

17 Tim Couch

17 Byron Leftwich

20 Carson Palmer

21 Ben Roethlisberger

24 David Carr

28 Joey Harrington

31 Patrick Ramsey

34 J.P. Losman

34 Cade McNown

35 Kyle Boller

37 Donovan McNabb

38 Akili Smith

41 Ryan Laef

46 Alex Smith

49 Rex Grossman

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I did some vaguely similar reseach for the other half of the Rivers faceoff. Following is the year end fantasy rank (in their first year as the primary starter) for the last 20 QBs drafted in the first round:

1 Culpepper

3 Michael Vick

4 Eli Manning

9 Peyton Manning

14 Chad Pennington

17 Tim Couch

17 Byron Leftwich

20 Carson Palmer

21 Ben Roethlisberger

24 David Carr

28 Joey Harrington

31 Patrick Ramsey

34 J.P. Losman

34 Cade McNown

35 Kyle Boller

37 Donovan McNabb

38 Akili Smith

41 Ryan Laef

46 Alex Smith

49 Rex Grossman

I would control for partial seasons by looking at per-game or per-attempt data.If I wanted to go further, I'd try to control for quality of the offense by looking at how it did the previous year.

 

[Big Score]

Guys who were fairly high draft picks who started after spending a year or two on the bench in the same offense are: Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and JP Losman. Three out of four did well. (Edit: McNair, too, as Big Score pointed out, but that's further back than I was looking.)

Since 2000, here are the guys who were first second-year starters on decent teams, replacing established vets who had done well in the same offense: Carson Palmer (replacing Kitna), Marc Bulger (replacing Warner), Michael Vick (replacing Chandler), Tom Brady (replacing Bledsoe), and Daunte Culpepper (replacing Cunningham and George). All of them did well.

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

Just corrected what was an obvious typo as all of those guys (Palmer, Bulger, Vick, Brady & Culpepper) were second year starters - not first year starters.

A first-year starter is somebody who is starting for the first time. It's not a synonym for rookie.

My mistake Maurile. When reading player bios on NFL.com or SI.com or a host of other web outlets, whenever they write about a player being a 1st year starter, that's exactly what they mean. The player was a 1st year starter. Same with the talking eggheads on the sports shows.

Now when the talking heads or write ups mention a player and say he had his 1st year starting year X, then you know he was either holding a clipboard if a QB, or a back up / ST player if at another position before earning a full starting role.

You just confused me with what you meant by your words, compared to most NFL journalism.

My bad.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Based of past performances I think 18TD's with 15ints would be a safe projection

 

[David Yudkin]

Here were the PPG averages for guys I cited in the Rives face off counting their games as a starter (based on 4 pts per passing TD):

Daunte Culpepper MIN 25.13

Kurt Warner STL 24.00

Aaron Brooks NO 22.50

Kordell Stewart PIT 20.75

Mark Brunell JAX 20.18

Chad Pennington NYJ 19.46

Boomer Esiason CIN 18.80

Trent Green WAS 18.47

Jeff Blake CIN 18.10

Brad Johnson MIN 16.90

Brett Favre GB 16.40

Ty Detmer PHI 15.69

Brian Griese DEN 15.64

Carson Palmer CIN 15.00

Tom Brady NE 14.79

Drew Brees SD 14.69

Jake Delhomme CAR 14.44

Rich Gannon MIN 13.93

Chris Simms TB 13.50

Jim Everett LAR 13.18

Jay Fiedler MIA 13.00

Dave Brown NYG 12.67

Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12.00

 

[Bri]

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

MT, I noticed Leander and McNeil were the starting Ts in practice with Oben not feeling too well at all. Do you agree that if they have to enter the season with them 2 as Ts, it'd be best to temper the enthusiasm for any QB playing behind them?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

MT, I noticed Leander and McNeil were the starting Ts in practice with Oben not feeling too well at all. Do you agree that if they have to enter the season with them 2 as Ts, it'd be best to temper the enthusiasm for any QB playing behind them?

Olivea will start at RT and be fine.Left tackle is a mystery. They're hoping to have Oben back by the first game, but there are certainly no guarantees. He's out of his walking boot now, but he can't push off of his foot. He probably won't play in any preseason games.

If Oben can't go to start the season, it will be between McNeill and Jordan. If Jordan starts, I would temper my enthusiasm for any QB playing behind him. He started the second half of the season last year and wasn't good. If McNeill beats him out, which should happen, I think he'll be okay. He's a rookie, but he didn't allow a sack in his last 43 games at Auburn. He really ought to do better than Jordan did last year.

If McNeill or Jordan starts at LT, I also think you'll see a lot of Manumaleuna lining up next to them in two-TE sets.

 

[Ray Pollett]

You can kill some time and maybe have some fun; but it is pretty worthless as a predictor. Different Players have different skill levels, different quality of teams (o-Line, RB, Wr, Te etc). The coaches are different (coaches can help or hurt; or even destroy a quality young QB) by treatment, and/or system they try to use etc. Way too many varibles to make a reasonable guess useing past number crunching.

 

[Bri]

I think the most important factor is the quality of the surrounding offense.

MT, I noticed Leander and McNeil were the starting Ts in practice with Oben not feeling too well at all. Do you agree that if they have to enter the season with them 2 as Ts, it'd be best to temper the enthusiasm for any QB playing behind them?

Olivea will start at RT and be fine.Left tackle is a mystery. They're hoping to have Oben back by the first game, but there are certainly no guarantees. He's out of his walking boot now, but he can't push off of his foot. He probably won't play in any preseason games.

If Oben can't go to start the season, it will be between McNeill and Jordan. If Jordan starts, I would temper my enthusiasm for any QB playing behind him. He started the second half of the season last year and wasn't good. If McNeill beats him out, which should happen, I think he'll be okay. He's a rookie, but he didn't allow a sack in his last 43 games at Auburn. He really ought to do better than Jordan did last year.

If McNeill or Jordan starts at LT, I also think you'll see a lot of Manumaleuna lining up next to them in two-TE sets.

interesting reply, thanksIIRC McNeil was a 1st round talent with a degenerative back condition, right? Anything further on that since he's been with the Chargers? What's a realistic time-frame for someone with that injury to play in the NFL? 5 years?

DT Robertson for the Jets has a degenerative knee condition. I was reading the other day that he'll be challnged by...(can't recall, doesn't matter)...in camp. I was very surprised and began to wonder if it was already the beginning of the end for him. Probably too fast but I wonder if every offseason Jets fans will wonder when he'll be "done".