Holdouts and Injuries (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

From today's update:

Fantastic news for Larry Johnson and the Chiefs. And it's not hard to read between the lines. When Carl Peterson says, "I'm cautiously optimistic a deal will get concluded" that can be translated as "Johnson is getting closer to accepting the numbers I've told him we'll pay." Ever the shrewd negotiator, he's publicly downplaying that they're close to a deal. I put very little stock on those words. Let's see. If a deal does get done, do not underestimate the cost of missing this much training camp for Johnson. He's been working out hard in Arizona but that is not the same as training camp. It seems that way too many times, we see a guy injured after rushing back into camp. Stay tuned.

Can someone provide some evidence on the bolded statement? Even if there are a few, what is the sample size? Is it statistically meaningful? etc.

 

[Tau837]

Bump. I figured someone on staff would respond, since someone on staff (Joe?) wrote the update I quoted.

 

[Tong Po]

I'm of the opinion that missing a couple weeks of training camp is actually beneficial to a running back.

Less beating on the body. Less opportunities for players to roll up on his legs.

Running back injuries can never be predicted. A guy could touch the ball once and be done for the year.

Doesn't matter how many days he spent in training camp.

 

[Maven]

I'm of the opinion that missing a couple weeks of training camp is actually beneficial to a running back.Less beating on the body. Less opportunities for players to roll up on his legs.Running back injuries can never be predicted. A guy could touch the ball once and be done for the year.Doesn't matter how many days he spent in training camp.

So you believe there is no correlation? I'd also like to see some data behind this 'myth'.

 

[jbird]

IIRC RB Jamal Anderson went down after holding out and wasn't the same after that. I think he had a big year before and was a first round selection in many fantasy drafts that year.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am curious about this as well. Have been for some time.

The problem with doing a study is it is hard to track players that have held out and held out for how long?

Like any set of data there will be some players that were injured after holding out and some that were not and no real conclushion can be drawn from this. What the actual percentage of players injured after holding out compared to the percentage of players injured who did not hold out could be compared however and that might indicate a higher percentage than normal or maybe not. I don't know, I just wonder.

However I do not see holding out as being a good thing.

 

[Tong Po]

I am curious about this as well. Have been for some time.The problem with doing a study is it is hard to track players that have held out and held out for how long?Like any set of data there will be some players that were injured after holding out and some that were not and no real conclushion can be drawn from this. What the actual percentage of players injured after holding out compared to the percentage of players injured who did not hold out could be compared however and that might indicate a higher percentage than normal or maybe not. I don't know, I just wonder.However I do not see holding out as being a good thing.

I don't see a huge difference (injury risk wise) between LJ holding out and working out on his own... and guys like LT and Maroney who likely won't play a single down the entire preseason. Are they less of an injury risk simply because they are participating in training camp?Like I posted earlier in the thread.... you can't predict an injury. Any long term study done to try and establish a pattern would have to focus solely on running backs. I don't think you'll be able to come up with a large enough sample size of RBs who held out of training camp vs. those who ultimately went down to an injury to call it a trend.Now if you want to worry about LJ getting hurt because of his running style and likely heavy workload during the upcoming season.... that's a different story.

 

[Tau837]

OK, so LJ signed, and the breaking news update from Joe said this:

We've all seen it before where a guy holds out and then is injured coming back too soon. To be fair though there are plenty of cases where a guy holds out and is fine.

So at least time there was a mild qualifier that many guys are fine. But I'm still looking for evidence about the holdouts we've all seen before who got injured.

 

[Tau837]

Deja vu. From today's update, again discussing LJ:

We've all seen it before where a guy holds out and then is injured coming back to soon.

I suppose it is a given by now that these statements will continue to simply be thrown out without any backing evidence.