House Majority 2021 (1 Viewer)

[Don't Noonan]

With this recent partisan impeachment it appears that the House is now very much in play for the Republicans.  History has not been kind to the party that fails to get the President removed in the Senate.  Add in the fact that Pelosi lied saying the would only move forward with bipartisan support and the Dems are in real danger of losing the House.

 

[Henry Ford]

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

 

[ShamrockPride]

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

We need links for opinions now?

 

[Henry Ford]

We need links for opinions now?

I don't believe I told him not to post unless he had them.  I asked if he had any.  Is that an unreasonable question for some reason?

 

[Don't Noonan]

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

For starters

 

[[scooter]]

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

For starters

That's a nice article from almost a month ago.

Do you have any recent articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe what you stated in your first post?

 

[dgreen]

With this recent partisan impeachment it appears that the House is now very much in play for the Republicans.  History has not been kind to the party that fails to get the President removed in the Senate.  Add in the fact that Pelosi lied saying the would only move forward with bipartisan support and the Dems are in real danger of losing the House.

Are you saying, historically, when there's been an impeachment and no removal that the House has experienced a major shift from one party to another?

 

[Henry Ford]

For starters

I don't see how that translates to a loss of 17+ seats, but I'm interested to see where it goes.  Hopefully some good discussion happens in here.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Are you saying, historically, when there's been an impeachment and no removal that the House has experienced a major shift from one party to another?

Clinton saw a nice bounce yes

 

[John Blutarsky]

That's a nice article from almost a month ago.

Do you have any recent articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe what you stated in your first post?

Seriously? 

 

[matuski]

That's a nice article from almost a month ago.

Do you have any recent articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe what you stated in your first post?

Almost (as in not quite) a month ago isn't recent enough?

 

[the moops]

Mark Meadows is now the 21st House Republican to decide to not seek re-election in 2020. I think that says more about the chances of the house flipping than the impeachment outcome

 

[Henry Ford]

Clinton saw a nice bounce yes

I don't believe Clinton ever ran for office again, though.  The Democrats picked up a couple seats, I think, but that's likely at least in part because Clinton was almost 75% approval after the impeachment proceedings and 65% when he left office.

Do you think Trump's approval ratings will jump up to 60-70%?

 

[John Blutarsky]

This is from Wednesday. Hope that is not considered old 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/politics/impeachment-polling-donald-trump/index.html

 

[the moops]

This is from Wednesday. Hope that is not considered old 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/politics/impeachment-polling-donald-trump/index.html

it is not old, but it doesn't speak to the chances of the republicans taking over the house

 

[knowledge dropper]

This is from Wednesday. Hope that is not considered old 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/politics/impeachment-polling-donald-trump/index.html

Dude.  That’s so 48 hours ago.  Nice try though. 

 

[John Blutarsky]

Mark Meadows is now the 21st House Republican to decide to not seek re-election in 2020. I think that says more about the chances of the house flipping than the impeachment outcome

 He told Politico that he might not serve out the remainder of his term in order to take a position in Trump’s administration or join the president’s reelection campaign. And if Meadows does resign, that could precipitate a special election.

Many of the retirements are in districts that are strong for Republican support.

 

[Mile High]

it is not old, but it doesn't speak to the chances of the republicans taking over the house

Exactly. Where are the polls saying I won't vote for my repersentive again due to their impeachment vote.

 

[[scooter]]

That's a nice article from almost a month ago.

Do you have any recent articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe what you stated in your first post?

Almost (as in not quite) a month ago isn't recent enough?

The article is based on the premise that political sentiment would continue to trend in a certain direction. The premise turned out to be wrong. So, yeah, something more recent would be nice.

I mean, he basically posted an article from September 1929 saying "The stock market is trending upward!!"

 

[matuski]

The article is based on the premise that political sentiment would continue to trend in a certain direction. The premise turned out to be wrong. So, yeah, something more recent would be nice.

I mean, he basically posted an article from September 1929 saying "The stock market is trending upward!!"

I didn't read the article, I just got a laugh out of the choice of words. 

 

[[scooter]]

Clinton saw a nice bounce yes

Do you realize that this doesn't bode well for Trump?

In 1998, public support of impeachment topped out at 35%.

In 2019, public support of impeachment topped out at 50%.

Clinton saw a nice bounce because the vast majority of the country didn't think he should be impeached. Trump does not have that math on his side.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Do you realize that this doesn't bode well for Trump?

In 1998, public support of impeachment topped out at 35%.

In 2019, public support of impeachment topped out at 50%.

Clinton saw a nice bounce because the vast majority of the country didn't think he should be impeached. Trump does not have that math on his side.

This bodes very well for Trump.  Especially with economy doing so well.  Once Durham report comes out in a few months exposing the anti-Trump corruption is will put him over the top.

 

[Workhorse]

As long as we're blindly forecasting things, I'm going to suggest that once Lev Parnas's details come out about Russian funding of various GOP campaigns, the Democrats will EXPAND their House advantage in the fall. Seems just as likely as what the OP is suggesting.

 

[HellToupee]

As long as we're blindly forecasting things, I'm going to suggest that once Lev Parnas's details come out about Russian funding of various GOP campaigns, the Democrats will EXPAND their House advantage in the fall. Seems just as likely as what the OP is suggesting.

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

 

[[scooter]]

As long as we're blindly forecasting things, I'm going to suggest that once Lev Parnas's details come out about Russian funding of various GOP campaigns, the Democrats will EXPAND their House advantage in the fall. Seems just as likely as what the OP is suggesting.

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

The Durham Report will answer all.

 

[Apple Jack]

Thank you for your thoughts, Ralph. Let's just wait and see.

 

[Henry Ford]

As long as we're blindly forecasting things, I'm going to suggest that once Lev Parnas's details come out about Russian funding of various GOP campaigns, the Democrats will EXPAND their House advantage in the fall. Seems just as likely as what the OP is suggesting.

To be fair, this was posted immediately after my thread (titled Senate Majority, 2021) about the Senate Majority being in play according to The Cook Political Report's statements today, so I'm not sure it was just an attempt to blindly forecast things so much as to respond to that thread.  

 

[Henry Ford]

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

I'm betting he doesn't.  Which is likely why he considers it just as likely as the original post.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Clinton saw a nice bounce yes

The election after Clinton was not removed,, Republicans retained the House and Senate and gained Bush in the White House. 

The trope that impeachment costs votes/seats is iffy if not false. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/did-clintons-impeachment-actually-hurt-republicans/591175/ 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

Lol I’d give you one, but do you even know who Lev Parnas is?

 

[Apple Jack]

Lol I’d give you one, but do you even know who Lev Parnas is?

A handsome fellow (perfect) with the best words.

For now.

 

[dkp993]

The Durham Report will answer all.

If not that then the Barr report, if not that then the Giuliani report, if not that then the (fill in the blank) report.....

 

[parrot]

Maybe.  I mean my personal preference is that people of conscience continue to wake up to the fact that the GOP is all in on boot-licking and rubber-stamping an immoral, incompetent, criminal President and they get curb-stomped again.  But maybe.  

 

[KPD]

Anecdotal for sure - but my district (primarily had been a R district for years) swung D in 2018 and now the R challenger for 2020 has said that he supports impeachment and removal.

 

[Juxtatarot]

Anecdotal for sure - but my district (primarily had been a R district for years) swung D in 2018 and now the R challenger for 2020 has said that he supports impeachment and removal.

Is your district suburban and affluent?

 

[KPD]

Yes, but rural suburban, so there are a fair number of small towns and farm land as well.

 

[Lutherman2112]

Good run down of Congressional retirements here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/596965/

 

[toshiba]

As long as we're blindly forecasting things, I'm going to suggest that once Lev Parnas's details come out about Russian funding of various GOP campaigns, the Democrats will EXPAND their House advantage in the fall. Seems just as likely as what the OP is suggesting.

Do you have any articles, polls, or other printed information that leads you to believe this?

We need links for opinions now? @ShamrockPride ;-)