How Bad Was the A.J. Green pick? (<----Bumping my awful thread) (1 Viewer)

[QuizGuy66]

While more than a few draft sites see A.J. Green as a solid/safe choice for my Bengals, I still can't believe that it's what they chose to do.

I was on the fence about the Atlanta offer that fell through (assuming of course that it's the same as what they gave the Browns and wasn't a lesser offer which is possible) but I have little doubt that this is a big-time blunder.

I looked back and in the Super Bowl era there have been 16 other WRs that have been selected in the top 5 of the NFL Draft.

Of those 16, exactly 2 won the Super Bowl (neither with the team that drafted them) with 1 winning an MVP (but as a kick returner). 4 others have played for a Super Bowl loser (2 with the team that drafted them). The 16 have combined for 31 Pro Bowl Appearances (11 of them made at least one - 7 of them made 3 or more). 3 of them have made all pro (one of those 3 did it twice).

Basically a highly drafted WR, while a nice toy, is no way to build a champion IMO.

Here's the other 16, with the team that drafted them, and notes:

2007 - Calvin Johnson, 2nd to Detroit - 1 Pro Bowl

2005 - Braylon Edwards, 3rd to Cleveland - 1 Pro Bowl

2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, 3rd to Arizona - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 time All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl loss

2003 - Charles Rogers, 2nd to Detroit

2003 - Andre Johnson, 3rd to Houston - 5 Pro Bowls, 2 time All-Pro

2000 - Peter Warrick, 4th to Cincinnati - 1 Super Bowl loss (as a KR)

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson, 1st to Jets - 3 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl win (with TB)

1995 - Michael Westbrook, 4th to Washington

1992 - Desmond Howard, 4th to Washington - 1 Pro Bowl, 1 Super Bowl win (with GB as KR - Super Bowl MVP)

1984 - Irving Fryar, 1st to New England - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl loss

1984 - Kenny Jackson, 4th to Philadelphia

1980 - Lam Jones, 2nd to Jets

1979 - Jerry Butler, 5th to Buffalo - 1 Pro Bowl

1978 - Wes Chandler, 3rd to New Orleans - 3 Pro Bowls, time All-Pro

1972 - Ahmad Rashad, 4th to St. Louis (Cards) - 4 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl loss

1971 - J.D. Hill, 4th to Buffalo - 1 Pro Bowl

*sigh*

-QG

 

[Zigg]

The Bengals need to make these trades when they get the chance. They turned down the Saints when they offered 9000 draft picks for Ricky, now they turn down what we must assume was an incredible offer from the Falcons. These are the type of trades that can make a team.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

I agree with this..there were way too many top caliber players on the board. I don't have a problem with Green's skill set, but it's completely negated because now they will be starting a rook QB in a brutal Division and Green may never even get a chance to reach his potential. He will have an even more difficult curve then most rook WR's

 

[RobertBobson]

a couple things..

1) it was way, way way less better than atlanta's pick of julio. At least the bengals didn't trade away half their draft for the next two years for him

2) I think there was more to this, than just Green's talent ( which is large). I think this is probably an attempt to appease Carson Palmer, and get him to return. By going after "the best wr prospect since calvin johnson" I think they are trying to show Palmer that they are committed to getting him pieces to win. There were many picks worse than this in the draft. Julio as a I said ( for what the falcons gave up), basically all the QB picks.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I agree with this..there were way too many top caliber players on the board. I don't have a problem with Green's skill set, but it's completely negated because now they will be starting a rook QB in a brutal Division and Green may never even get a chance to reach his potential. He will have an even more difficult curve then most rook WR's

And they have already developed 4 receiving options in Simpson, Shipley, Caldwell, and Gresham. I'll add a couple of caveats:1) I'm assuming Ocho is gone. If that's granted and pick of Green convinces Palmer to return it changes the way I have to grade this pick. I do think Palmer is better than whatever return they'd get for him. Of course I also assume that return is zero as Mikey Boy will just stupidly let him retire.2a) Dropping 23 spots is not trivial. If you go value chart and assign pick #24 to the Falcons (likely conservative as they'll likely pick after that) the value would actually favor the Falcons on the chart. If you by the premise that they would trade specifically to get a QB (that they are giving up on Palmer by not adding a weapon for him) the #27 pick really wasn't that appealing - it would be behind every other team that was looking at QBs (and 1 spot behind the Seahawks). With 20/20 hindsight they can grab Dalton there and still have a shot at Bowers or a good RB at #35 but that's a lot to project. 2b) That said, it's amazing that Mikey Boy didn't look at the $ difference between the picks as well as the likelihood that that #1 next year will have a lower $ hit because of a rookie scale and didn't pull the trigger. Go figure The funny thing is that the phones the Bengals may be working tonight might not be to other teams - they might be to Palmer and his agent.-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

I'm not saying they picked a bad player. Not at all. I just don't see it as a winning move. I don't feel that this adds wins to the column for us, even if Green isn't a bust.

-QG

 

[cvnpoka]

I'm not saying they picked a bad player. Not at all. I just don't see it as a winning move. I don't feel that this adds wins to the column for us, even if Green isn't a bust.-QG

seems like a disconnect

 

[QuizGuy66]

I'm not saying they picked a bad player. Not at all. I just don't see it as a winning move. I don't feel that this adds wins to the column for us, even if Green isn't a bust.-QG

seems like a disconnect

I think the value of the position isn't high enough to warrant the pick, no matter the talent of the player involved. I also think that this sort of player is best as a "final" piece - such as what the Falcons did.-QG

 

[massraider]

I'm not saying they picked a bad player. Not at all. I just don't see it as a winning move. I don't feel that this adds wins to the column for us, even if Green isn't a bust.-QG

It's almost more important to not screw up your pick, than get a certain position. Passing on lesser QB talents, not reaching for a LT were good moves. If Green is a pro bowler, totally worth it.

 

[cvnpoka]

I'm not saying they picked a bad player. Not at all. I just don't see it as a winning move. I don't feel that this adds wins to the column for us, even if Green isn't a bust.-QG

seems like a disconnect

I think the value of the position isn't high enough to warrant the pick, no matter the talent of the player involved. I also think that this sort of player is best as a "final" piece - such as what the Falcons did.-QG

so you think wr is not gonna have enough of an impact on winning games to justify this pick? so its the position in general? i think thats a viable pov. tho, i personally think wr is a high impact player, but i understand why others may eschew it.

 

[Burning Sensation]

First RB's, now WR's? Im all for building a team from the trenches out, but sometimes thats not possible. Im sure the Cardinals would have had more success if Robert Gallery made it one more pick, this way they wouldnt have been stuck with Fitzgerald. Are the Giants a better team with, or without Nicks in the lineup? Perhaps the Lions would be better if they took Gaines Adams instead of Calvin Johnson, he was the best DE available in that draft(Well, Jamaal Anderson was up there too.)

 

[FUBAR]

I felt much the same way about Von Miller as you do Green. Both are likely to be the best players in this draft though. Think about it - would the 49ers have been better off selecting Braylon or Alex Smith?

 

[Tick]

2007 - Calvin Johnson, 2nd to Detroit - 1 Pro Bowl2005 - Braylon Edwards, 3rd to Cleveland - 1 Pro Bowl2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, 3rd to Arizona - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 time All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl loss2003 - Charles Rogers, 2nd to Detroit2003 - Andre Johnson, 3rd to Houston - 5 Pro Bowls, 2 time All-Pro

So in the past 10 years, this is how it looks. Not bad.

 

[BigJohn]

Mike Brown is stupid.

[/bengals]

 

[Holy Schneikes]

2007 - Calvin Johnson, 2nd to Detroit - 1 Pro Bowl2005 - Braylon Edwards, 3rd to Cleveland - 1 Pro Bowl2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, 3rd to Arizona - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 time All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl loss2003 - Charles Rogers, 2nd to Detroit2003 - Andre Johnson, 3rd to Houston - 5 Pro Bowls, 2 time All-Pro

So in the past 10 years, this is how it looks. Not bad.

Probably better than most positions. Teams drafting in the top five are generally bad teams, so it is not surprising that players picked there might have trouble getting to the Super Bowl.

 

[Hoosier16]

While more than a few draft sites see A.J. Green as a solid/safe choice for my Bengals, I still can't believe that it's what they chose to do.

Who would you have taken @ 27?

 

[Cassius]

BPA.

 

[BigJohn]

While more than a few draft sites see A.J. Green as a solid/safe choice for my Bengals, I still can't believe that it's what they chose to do.

Who would you have taken @ 27?

Dalton/Mallett, Bowers or Marvin Austin. Besides, the picks that the Falcons were giving up more than make up the difference.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

You can't argue with the pick IMO.

 

[Sabertooth]

BPA.

This. He was perhaps the best player in this draft. Regardless of what happens, you have to take that guy.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I was on the fence about the Atlanta offer that fell through (assuming of course that it's the same as what they gave the Browns and wasn't a lesser offer which is possible) but I have little doubt that this is a big-time blunder.

-QG

This.I agree with others about the BPA factor. So in that sense, it was a good pick. But you have to assume that at least the same offer was on the table that the Browns got from Atlanta. Then, I agree with QG that the blundering Bengals committed another snafu.

 

[comfortably numb]

I like the player, but I can understand the OP's feelings.

IF they had any deal like CLE got, you HAVE to take it. CIN has too many holes. They are not winning this year. The extra picks would help long term in adding quality depth to the overall roster.

IMO, I don't think the Bengals should be doing anything with a main focus on trying to keep Carson around.

I think Carson is closer to the holding the team back, then he is from leading them to the promise land.

 

[shader]

I hated the pick. I had to watch a number of Bengals games last year doing game recaps...WR was not the problem. Just so many other areas that they could have gone, in my opinion. I know they have good CB's, but Peterson would have been a great add. Fairley would have been tremendous for them in the AFC North to team up with their young stud DE from Florida.

I mean, he's a great player so it's not THAT bad of a pick...but in that division, with that team...I just don't see the upgrade for them. Lose TO and Ocho Cinco...gain AJ Green. Seems like they are spinning wheels.

Bengals--Last place in the AFC North in 2011. Back to the cellar for ten years. It's a lock.

 

[D.J.]

I hated the pick. I had to watch a number of Bengals games last year doing game recaps...WR was not the problem. Just so many other areas that they could have gone, in my opinion. I know they have good CB's, but Peterson would have been a great add. Fairley would have been tremendous for them in the AFC North to team up with their young stud DE from Florida. I mean, he's a great player so it's not THAT bad of a pick...but in that division, with that team...I just don't see the upgrade for them. Lose TO and Ocho Cinco...gain AJ Green. Seems like they are spinning wheels. Bengals--Last place in the AFC North in 2011. Back to the cellar for ten years. It's a lock.

Wr was not a problem for them last year, but with TO and (lets assume) Ocho gone, wont it be a problem next year (if they hadnt taken green)?

 

[Hoosier16]

While more than a few draft sites see A.J. Green as a solid/safe choice for my Bengals, I still can't believe that it's what they chose to do.

Who would you have taken @ 27?

Dalton/Mallett, Bowers or Marvin Austin. Besides, the picks that the Falcons were giving up more than make up the difference.

The Bengals could have one of them in the 2nd.BTW, I would not have been against them trading down either. I just don' t think what they did was terrible.

 

[daveR]

I'm not saying they picked a bad player. Not at all. I just don't see it as a winning move. I don't feel that this adds wins to the column for us, even if Green isn't a bust.-QG

It's almost more important to not screw up your pick, than get a certain position. Passing on lesser QB talents, not reaching for a LT were good moves. If Green is a pro bowler, totally worth it.

 

[BigJohn]

While more than a few draft sites see A.J. Green as a solid/safe choice for my Bengals, I still can't believe that it's what they chose to do.

Who would you have taken @ 27?

Dalton/Mallett, Bowers or Marvin Austin. Besides, the picks that the Falcons were giving up more than make up the difference.

The Bengals could have one of them in the 2nd.BTW, I would not have been against them trading down either. I just don' t think what they did was terrible.

Right, but their 2nd round pick wold have only been 9 spots after 26, so none of them would have been real reaches.

 

[shader]

I hated the pick. I had to watch a number of Bengals games last year doing game recaps...WR was not the problem. Just so many other areas that they could have gone, in my opinion. I know they have good CB's, but Peterson would have been a great add. Fairley would have been tremendous for them in the AFC North to team up with their young stud DE from Florida. I mean, he's a great player so it's not THAT bad of a pick...but in that division, with that team...I just don't see the upgrade for them. Lose TO and Ocho Cinco...gain AJ Green. Seems like they are spinning wheels. Bengals--Last place in the AFC North in 2011. Back to the cellar for ten years. It's a lock.

Wr was not a problem for them last year, but with TO and (lets assume) Ocho gone, wont it be a problem next year (if they hadnt taken green)?

Was it a problem at the end of the year when the two were on the bench? Caldwell looked good, Shipley looks like he's going to be great in the slot, Gresham seems to be a great prospect at tight end, and Jerome Simpson was spectacular in the last two games of the year.I also don't think Green is the transcendent talent that many in here do. I may be wrong on that one, but I've never been blown away. Played on a college team that threw all the time and had a bad defense.Regardless, a WR wasn't the pick there in my opinion, and this organization continues it's descent.

 

[chidoy]

You can't argue with the pick IMO.

This.In back to back drafts, Bengals get the best TE in the draft, then the best WR in the draft. Now they get a chance at Mallet or Kaepernick in 2. SUPERBOWL BOUND!

 

[shader]

You can't argue with the pick IMO.

This.In back to back drafts, Bengals get the best TE in the draft, then the best WR in the draft. Now they get a chance at Mallet or Kaepernick in 2. SUPERBOWL BOUND!

yikes. I guess everyone is a contender in the spring and summer. I have a feeling it's going to be a LONG year in Cincy.

 

[doowain]

I liked the pick. The only argument that could be made would have been for a DT IMO. Defense is set otherwise. Very young and very talented. Outside of DT, WR made the most sense. No RB or QB was worth that pick IMO.

I'm king of hoping for a bad year so we can get in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

 

[NorrisB]

I love the pick QG is just whining which I dont blame him. This guy is Larry Fitzgerald II

 

[Zeff]

If they could have gotten the Atlanta haul, I think passing on it was a mistake. The draft is way too uncertain, and way too many franchise changing players come out of those later picks to ever pass up a horde for anything less than a slam-dunk franchise cornerstone. And I don't think a WR can be one.

But if they were going to stay put and make the pick, I'm not sure what they could have done that would have been better. Talent-wise, maybe Fairley or Quinn, but both were pretty risky...and far riskier than AJ, IMO.

I'm okay with the selection. Not thrilled, but okay.

 

[Hedgehog]

I am usually of the philosophy of quality over quantity...but Cincy is such a train wreck with so many holes I would have taken the deal. Could have rebuilt and been reloaded within 2 yrs.

 

[Kirby]

Should have taken the picks and drafted Ingram... but Green was the best option at 4.

 

[Tecumseh]

FWIW, Marvin said they had the exact same offer from the Falcons, but didn't think it held enough value.

 

[Kirby]

FWIW, Marvin said they had the exact same offer from the Falcons, but didn't think it held enough value.

Would have been nice to have an extra first next year to trade up for Carolina's 1 so they could draft Luck.

 

[Cassius]

FWIW, Marvin said they had the exact same offer from the Falcons, but didn't think it held enough value.

That blows my mind.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I hated the pick. I had to watch a number of Bengals games last year doing game recaps...WR was not the problem. Just so many other areas that they could have gone, in my opinion. I know they have good CB's, but Peterson would have been a great add. Fairley would have been tremendous for them in the AFC North to team up with their young stud DE from Florida. I mean, he's a great player so it's not THAT bad of a pick...but in that division, with that team...I just don't see the upgrade for them. Lose TO and Ocho Cinco...gain AJ Green. Seems like they are spinning wheels. Bengals--Last place in the AFC North in 2011. Back to the cellar for ten years. It's a lock.

Wr was not a problem for them last year, but with TO and (lets assume) Ocho gone, wont it be a problem next year (if they hadnt taken green)?

I factor in Ocho and Owens being gone when I state that I think WR is less of a critical need than elsewhere. Watching those last 2 games with Simpson, Caldwell, and Shipley convinced me the future is now at that position.A Ferrari looks good in the garage, but if the house is collapsing it's cold comfort to sleep in that sports car.Personally I liked the Peterson option - mainly because I think we lose Joseph but even if we kept him it makes for a more dynamic secondary. Our pass rush is awful so it also hurt to not see that addressed.I'm guessing #27 was the only real trade-down option. To be clear, I'm not sure I would've liked it (though it always is predicated on who you land at the picks you get) though it would have the effect of leaving more money on the table to keep a guy like Joseph (even if the salary cap never comes back, you know Mikey Boy has one).Mikey is ancient though and it might be a long ago memory that makes him value these high picks so much. In 1984 the Bengals (through some miracle) managed to get the #1 overall pick by fleecing the Bucs (they traded QB Jack Thompson, the Throwin' Samoan to Tampa to get the pick) - the trade was made before the '83 season). They turned around in April of '04 and dealt the pick to the Patriots (who drafted Irving Fryar) for the 16th, 28th, and 265 picks in '84 and the 129th pick in '85. The players they got:16 - Pete Koch (a NT they got rid of after one year)28 - Brian Blados (who was RT on the Super Bowl team in '88 and did give them 7 years)265 - Brent Ziegler (never played a game)129 in 85 - Lee Davis (a DB who they got rid of after one year)This was draft they got Boomer in, btw. Anyhow, sometimes more picks doesn't equal better.As a side note, if we land Dalton in round 2 I'll feel a lot better. Perhaps Mikey can coax Carson out to do the 1-year mentor thing with the promise of trading him after the season - that's what he did with Boomer when they drafted Corp. Klingler.-QG

 

[Steel Dillo]

If it was anyone else but the Bengals, I would say that it was the right move. But given their history of ineptness, Green will probably bust or the FO will run him out of town as soon as he shows signs of greatness.

Can't believe they passed up the offer from Atlanta though.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I love the pick QG is just whining which I dont blame him. This guy is Larry Fitzgerald II

LOL thanks Norris Bengals fans do have a license to whine Again, I hope this thread proves to be wrong years from now. -QG

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

2007 - Calvin Johnson, 2nd to Detroit - 1 Pro Bowl2005 - Braylon Edwards, 3rd to Cleveland - 1 Pro Bowl2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, 3rd to Arizona - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 time All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl loss2003 - Charles Rogers, 2nd to Detroit2003 - Andre Johnson, 3rd to Houston - 5 Pro Bowls, 2 time All-Pro

So in the past 10 years, this is how it looks. Not bad.

And out of all of those Arizona was in 1 Super Bowl. Now I read this morning the Bengals turned down the Atlanta offer..yikes another great move in Cincy

 

[QuizGuy66]

FWIW, Marvin said they had the exact same offer from the Falcons, but didn't think it held enough value.

Would have been nice to have an extra first next year to trade up for Carolina's 1 so they could draft Luck.

Would a #15 pick and a #28 pick be enough to move up to #1 next year? I'm not saying the Bengals will draft as far down as #15 but certainly the organization does not believe that will be the case (and the schedule is much more forgiving this year). You have to figure the Falcons pick will be in the mid-to-upper 20s.Teams don't plan to fail. Even the Bengals. It just kinda works out that way.-QG

 

[RobertBobson]

FWIW, Marvin said they had the exact same offer from the Falcons, but didn't think it held enough value.

That doesn't surprise me at all, but it does make me laugh. This is a franchise that turned down 2 number one picks for 85 two years ago, out of "principal", when he was demanding to be traded. There's a reason they've been picking in the bottom 3rd of the draft almost every year for the last 20, and it's not luck. Passing on this trade is a much worse move than taking Green.

 

[adrenaline]

I would have took the load of picks. I don't think it was a horrible pick though, gives Luck a weapon next season.

 

[Joe Summer]

I looked back and in the Super Bowl era there have been 16 other WRs that have been selected in the top 5 of the NFL Draft.Of those 16, exactly 2 won the Super Bowl (neither with the team that drafted them) with 1 winning an MVP (but as a kick returner). 4 others have played for a Super Bowl loser (2 with the team that drafted them). The 16 have combined for 31 Pro Bowl Appearances (11 of them made at least one - 7 of them made 3 or more). 3 of them have made all pro (one of those 3 did it twice).Basically a highly drafted WR, while a nice toy, is no way to build a champion IMO.

Curious to see how those stats compare to taking a QB/RB/DL/CB/etc. in the top-5. How many DLs taken in the top 5 have won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them?

 

[QuizGuy66]

By the end of the decade, the Bengals will have turned down an offer of 9 first rounders for Chad. People keeping saying the offer was 2 first rounders. It wasn't - there were conditions and the Bengals were going to take an $8 million hit on their cap if they traded him.

Article at the time

Choice quotes from the article:

The Redskins offered their first-round pick, No. 21 overall, and a conditional third-rounder in 2009 that could escalate to a first-rounder if Johnson and the Redskins hit certain performance levels, the sources said.

What were the "team" conditions - the Redskins make the Super Bowl? It's not clear.

Trading Johnson also would mean Cincinnati would take an $8 million salary cap hit, but the Bengals are currently $10.5 million under the cap and could restructure other contracts if they wanted to create even more space. Additionally, as one anonymous owner told ESPN.com, "There's nothing wrong with dead money. It's cash already paid and it's cash back in your pocket that you don't have to spend, especially with the [high] amount of everyone's salary cap these days."

The Bengals don't like doing the dead money thing. They had just cut Henry and had pretty much nothing in the receiver cupboard outside of Housh at that time.Anyhow, enough of the thread-jack. Just always a bit peeved when this specific example is cited without any of the context.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

I looked back and in the Super Bowl era there have been 16 other WRs that have been selected in the top 5 of the NFL Draft.Of those 16, exactly 2 won the Super Bowl (neither with the team that drafted them) with 1 winning an MVP (but as a kick returner). 4 others have played for a Super Bowl loser (2 with the team that drafted them). The 16 have combined for 31 Pro Bowl Appearances (11 of them made at least one - 7 of them made 3 or more). 3 of them have made all pro (one of those 3 did it twice).Basically a highly drafted WR, while a nice toy, is no way to build a champion IMO.

Curious to see how those stats compare to taking a QB/RB/DL/CB/etc. in the top-5. How many DLs taken in the top 5 have won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them?

Paging Chase Stuart...Paging Chase Stuart...I may try and dig into that but it of course would take a while with like, what 200+ players to go through. -QG

 

[FUBAR]

2007 - Calvin Johnson, 2nd to Detroit - 1 Pro Bowl

2005 - Braylon Edwards, 3rd to Cleveland - 1 Pro Bowl

2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, 3rd to Arizona - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 time All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl loss

2003 - Charles Rogers, 2nd to Detroit

2003 - Andre Johnson, 3rd to Houston - 5 Pro Bowls, 2 time All-Pro

So in the past 10 years, this is how it looks. Not bad.

And out of all of those Arizona was in 1 Super Bowl. Now I read this morning the Bengals turned down the Atlanta offer..yikes another great move in Cincy

If that's the standard, taking a QB top 5 is stupid too. Out of the QBs taken top 5 in the last 10 years, only Eli Manning has played in a Super Bowl.

 

[NorrisB]

As a Bengal I would have rejected the Falcons offer as well. I really dont like the talent that was there at 27 and the extra 2nds and 1st would be such a crap shoot I dont think any of them would have been as valuable as Green.