How cognitive bias affects your fantasy draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

Matt Harmon talks with neuroscience professor Dr. Renee Miller about how small, subtle, instinctual biases in our heads affect our everyday decisions.

They discuss how your brain gets excited about pre-season hype, overvalues the first few weeks of the regular season and doesn't take variance into account with rookies.

2:30 - What is cognitive bias and how does it relate to fantasy football?
12:07 - What are some strategies to combat your biases in draft season and beyond?
34:15 - Specific player/team situations where you might fall into bias traps



Interesting stuff, I think raising your self awareness in this area may help you avoid common mistakes.

 

[Ray_T]

Matt Harmon talks with neuroscience professor Dr. Renee Miller about how small, subtle, instinctual biases in our heads affect our everyday decisions.

They discuss how your brain gets excited about pre-season hype, overvalues the first few weeks of the regular season and doesn't take variance into account with rookies.

2:30 - What is cognitive bias and how does it relate to fantasy football?
12:07 - What are some strategies to combat your biases in draft season and beyond?
34:15 - Specific player/team situations where you might fall into bias traps



Interesting stuff, I think raising your self awareness in this area may help you avoid common mistakes.

I'm no expert on cognitive bias, but I know hype.

Teams always hype up their picks. its done for 2 reasons

1) it gets the fans excited and they buy tickets
2) its done to give their first rounder confidence.

how I deal with it: I still read the articles hyping the player, but I also remember that the last week or 2 of camp is the hype that matters most. likely only the last exhibition game gives you even a remotely close approximation of what a regular season game looks like and even that isnt fully all the way there.

some of those early pre season games are against guys who wont be playing pro football in a month or two. so it's hard to project that to the regular season.

I dont have much else to say there. You read the press clippings and try to make the best decision you can with the info available

 

[cdclopper]

Why do you read the hype pieces if you know what it's all about? Seems like a recipe to worsen whatever bias already exists in there.

I stopped keeping up with nfl training camp news last year. Mostly because its boring anymore. But also it probably makes you worse at fantasy. The problem moreso than the actual news is the selection bias of what pops up. What with the algorithm and all. Its going to be a feed back loop that reinforces opinions you already had. Then it's dutch tulips.

Besides, what good is it anyway? Its either coach speak or some reporter schmuck's windbag opinion. Remember how jamarr chase couldnt catch? Or how much awesome was Trey Lance? OBJ and Justin Jefferson had ho-hum training camps their rookie year.


Id be willing to bet the people who react to the july and august news show much worse fantasy results. Id be interested in seeing a brief study on this done. Anybody know where one could find historical fantasy values and/or adp?

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

this but only goes back to 2015

 

[Joe Bryant]

It's interesting for sure.

We did this feature in May on mental models and decision making and I think it's a helpful area.

A Tapestry of Razors, The Psychology of Fantasy Football

Razors can help one to navigate fantasy football's mental labyrinth.

www.footballguys.com

A Tapestry of Razors, The Psychology of Fantasy Football​

My favorite part of fantasy football is the psychological component, the mental approach, and how that synergy impacts strategies and relationships in this hobby.

As soon as we open our laptops, we have immediate access to a bustling marketplace of ideas, data, blueprints, approaches, and social media interactions where "razors" can be the mental tools that help us carve through the dense fantasy football underbrush. They often stand as guiding principles, offering rules of thumb to streamline decision-making and problem-solving processes. These razors, while not infallible laws, can serve as invaluable tools, leading us toward more probable explanations and efficient solutions. Below, we explore eight of the more important philosophical razors as they relate to fantasy football:

...

 

[Ilov80s]

It’s definitely a big part of the game and one that newbies seem to really struggle with. The most obvious would be the “I drafted Justin Jefferson last year and he got hurt so I don’t want him this year” or “I won my league last year and I took Josh Allen in round 2 so now I always will be the first team to take a QB.”

I think small sample traps, giving a random event too much meaning and misidentifying cause and effect are real killers for a lot of people. Like that team that won with Allen in round 2 might be totally missing that the actual reason they won that year was they nailed the best late sleeper RB pick with Mostert, got good luck with health and were very active on waivers which landed them Isaiah Likely and Zamir White for their playoff run. Because those things are more complex and nuanced than saying Josh Allen scored the most points so he was the reason I won, it gets lost on people.

 

[SoBeDad]

Matt Harmon talks with neuroscience professor Dr. Renee Miller about how small, subtle, instinctual biases in our heads affect our everyday decisions

Great interview. I've been co-GM of the same team with a friend I've known since middle school. We're in year 35 of the our league!

I think having another person to discuss choices reduces mistakes (some are bad biases) and leads to better decisions during the draft and post draft. I don't think there are many FF teams with coGMs (there is a father-adult son team in our league), but in life many people consult with family and friends on everyday decisions.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Matt Harmon talks with neuroscience professor Dr. Renee Miller about how small, subtle, instinctual biases in our heads affect our everyday decisions

Great interview. I've been co-GM of the same team with a friend I've known since middle school. We're in year 35 of the our league!

I think having another person to discuss choices reduces mistakes (some are bad biases) and leads to better decisions during the draft and post draft. I don't think there are many FF teams with coGMs (there is a father-adult son team in our league), but in life many people consult with family and friends on everyday decisions.

My main redraft league has a lot of co-owned teams. One of them has the most titles in league history. Another produces hilarious arguments over who to take every draft. So it can go both ways.

 

[barackdhouse]

Yeah this is the stuff that can be injected directly into my veins. There are so many different examples of various types of bias in FF.

One of the bigger ones that I try hard to be aware of is name-bias. I'd highly recommend if you are a data person using spreadsheets and so forth to do your rankings - to black out the names so you don't know who they are.

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

Here is a really good short video by Richard Feynman (worked on the Manhattan Project) talking about knowing the names of birds but not really knowing anything about the birds themselves.

 

[barackdhouse]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

 

[markrc99]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Okay but he does have greenish looking eyes, it seems. Now what?

 

[barackdhouse]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Okay but he does have greenish looking eyes, it seems. Now what?

I'll respond with schtick but there is actually something to this - It is yet another kind of bias to look very deep at any one player, if it is being done at the expense of the rest of the pool. Unless we log every player's eye color then we run the risk of putting too much stock one way or the other in the guy we're taking that deeper dive with.

In all seriousness this is a thing, not they eye color bit but the question for example - "are we giving too much stock to stuff we see on Hard Knocks?" or if we are homers on a given NFL team or just happen to be plugged in more. that is a *great* thing as far as one's ability to have an informed reasonable take or set of takes on a given player or team or situation, but unless you're going that deep with every team and player and situation, then you're running a major bias risk.

 

[-OZ-]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Maybe. Did you avoid Michael Evans?

 

[barackdhouse]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Maybe. Did you avoid Michael Evans?

I think I have actually. He is one of those examples for sure because of his name. Now I have *not* avoided Mike Evans have had many many shares and have done well with him over the years. But he might have been the one player several years ago that really made me start asking this question. I probably have skipped over him a couple times because of this nonsense. And of course the other end of the spectrum of this bias is just as bad and that's to be too high on a player with an awesome name. Like Jahan Dotson perhaps.

 

[Ilov80s]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Maybe. Did you avoid Michael Evans?

I think I have actually. He is one of those examples for sure because of his name. Now I have *not* avoided Mike Evans have had many many shares and have done well with him over the years. But he might have been the one player several years ago that really made me start asking this question. I probably have skipped over him a couple times because of this nonsense. And of course the other end of the spectrum of this bias is just as bad and that's to be too high on a player with an awesome name. Like Jahan Dotson perhaps.

Evans also has been a long time sufferer of the bias against established players. Mike Evans, Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper. These guys start to become boring and we want the new shiny object like Malik Nabers, Trey McBride or Zay Flowers when the reality is that those players 90th percentile outcomes are basically just doing what we already know Evans, Andrews and Cooper do consistently.

 

[Lansdowne]

The bias is real. I’m already psyching myself out on two WR prospects (Brian Thomas Jr. and Keon Coleman) because of one that flopped for me in 2021 (Terrace Marshall Jr.)

BTJ because the parallels are there: highly productive LSU WR, second best LSU WR in his own class, has Jr. in his name

With Coleman it’s “last time I trusted a Joe Brady WR it backfired on me, and Coleman is going to an offense coached by Brady”

So I’m terrified of taking either in my rookie draft and seeing my guy flop and then regret not learning from past mistakes. But I know it’s all really nonsense.

 

[Joe Bryant]

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

You mean that you actually dislike the name independent of anything with football?

 

[-OZ-]

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

I find this true for me when I have a mental image of a player that just isn’t accurate, usually based on name alone.
For example, when I first heard the name Deuce Vaughn, I envisioned a guy built like Derrick Henry. Yeah, clearly wrong.

 

[Ilov80s]

Also there is a bias that change is good or new is good. There was a thread here about the rookie Bengals WR (names escapes me at the moment) about he’s such a better prospect than Tyler Boyd and how it could be a big boost to the offense. Tyler Boyd wasn’t a star but he was a very good prospect and has had an outstanding career. Most of the rookies drafted in 2024 will wish they had the career Boyd had. But because Boyd never became Larry Fitzgerald we just assume that the new guy is better. This also happens with rookie or FA signings to OL or secondary. A team had a bad OL so they draft a tacke in the 2nd and get a FA guard and we just assume their OL is better now when the reality is most 2nd round picks bust and FA signings are extremely unreliable. It might be fixed or it might not, but tend to assume the change will be good.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The college thing gets some people. Ignoring Stroud because he went to the "wrong school", presumably waiting for the next guy from Wyoming or Texas Tech?

 

[Gally]

I think having another person to discuss choices reduces mistakes (some are bad biases) and leads to better decisions during the draft and post draft.

Plus it's just more fun having someone actually interested in your fantasy team to talk things over with.

I am in the same boat as I am still partners with a buddy I have had since before middle school. Our league is in year 39. It's a great reason to stay in touch through the year.

 

[Monty Burns]

When I first heard of Nico Collins I figured anyone named Nico MUST be a smurf......

 

[eighsse2]

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

Totally get this. Names matter way too much in my brain. Some names are just so pedestrian though. Who wants a team full of John Smiths and Robert Joneses?

 

[Gatorade]

last year I read so much about Achane being too small and fragile that I took him off my board.

this year I skip over the Hype and mainly look for injury situations.

If anything , I tend to overthink because of information overload.

 

[barackdhouse]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Maybe. Did you avoid Michael Evans?

I think I have actually. He is one of those examples for sure because of his name. Now I have *not* avoided Mike Evans have had many many shares and have done well with him over the years. But he might have been the one player several years ago that really made me start asking this question. I probably have skipped over him a couple times because of this nonsense. And of course the other end of the spectrum of this bias is just as bad and that's to be too high on a player with an awesome name. Like Jahan Dotson perhaps.

Evans also has been a long time sufferer of the bias against established players. Mike Evans, Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper. These guys start to become boring and we want the new shiny object like Malik Nabers, Trey McBride or Zay Flowers when the reality is that those players 90th percentile outcomes are basically just doing what we already know Evans, Andrews and Cooper do consistently.

yep

 

[barackdhouse]

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

You mean that you actually dislike the name independent of anything with football?

unfortunately I think there is a subconscious mechanism there, yes. but that's why I do things like black out the names when I'm sorting stats, or to the extent that I'm disciplined enough to do so. I work for a fed agency but I used to be a supervisor there for many years and would consider similar methodologies when evaluating them for their performance appraisals. our work was/is very production driven bean-counting stuff, and so we try to be very careful about not being biased for/against these employees, and I had a team of 14 but there were 9 other teams across the nation producing the same widgets, so to speak, and we all shared notes when it was time to do the evals. now it wasn't the actual literal names like what I was talking about with football above, it was just the idea to keep it anonymous so any bias we're not even aware of is removed from the equation.

but TLDR yes it is independent of anything football. and it is really dumb but I avoid the Mike Smiths and Brian Joneses of the football world a lot of the time. Since I am drafting all offseason long, I am constantly shuffling my board and rankings and so forth and that is actually one the things I look at when I do a big reshuffling, like I'm in the process of doing right now here in preseason. I look at the guys I've not drafted much or any shares of (for whatever reason just pure numbers here) and I ask why. Is there a solid fantasy football reason I'm low on someone? Or is it a bias of some kind? And if so what kind and how etc? And subconscious name bias is something I know exists for me so I try to throw that out the window.

Actually Ray Davis is interesting because I had a mistaken assumption about him that was football related (I thought he was much much bigger than he is and didn't have 3-down profile) and didn't correct that misunderstanding until a couple weeks ago, and then the only thing I had left against him was the depth chart and his name.

So now he's on my target list.

 

[barackdhouse]

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

Totally get this. Names matter way too much in my brain. Some names are just so pedestrian though. Who wants a team full of John Smiths and Robert Joneses?

That is exactly what I'm saying and it's not ok. Haha it is quite clearly and obviously poor process so why are dumb enough to let that drive us? I'll take my answer offline

 

[Joe Bryant]

But, I catch myself in the act sometimes of either overly favoring or overly avoiding a player simply because of my subconscious like/dislike of their name. And yes that is just as dumb as it sounds but it's a subtle thing that I think more of us do than we realize.

You mean that you actually dislike the name independent of anything with football?

unfortunately I think there is a subconscious mechanism there, yes. but that's why I do things like black out the names when I'm sorting stats, or to the extent that I'm disciplined enough to do so. I work for a fed agency but I used to be a supervisor there for many years and would consider similar methodologies when evaluating them for their performance appraisals. our work was/is very production driven bean-counting stuff, and so we try to be very careful about not being biased for/against these employees, and I had a team of 14 but there were 9 other teams across the nation producing the same widgets, so to speak, and we all shared notes when it was time to do the evals. now it wasn't the actual literal names like what I was talking about with football above, it was just the idea to keep it anonymous so any bias we're not even aware of is removed from the equation.

but TLDR yes it is independent of anything football. and it is really dumb but I avoid the Mike Smiths and Brian Joneses of the football world a lot of the time. Since I am drafting all offseason long, I am constantly shuffling my board and rankings and so forth and that is actually one the things I look at when I do a big reshuffling, like I'm in the process of doing right now here in preseason. I look at the guys I've not drafted much or any shares of (for whatever reason just pure numbers here) and I ask why. Is there a solid fantasy football reason I'm low on someone? Or is it a bias of some kind? And if so what kind and how etc? And subconscious name bias is something I know exists for me so I try to throw that out the window.

Actually Ray Davis is interesting because I had a mistaken assumption about him that was football related (I thought he was much much bigger than he is and didn't have 3-down profile) and didn't correct that misunderstanding until a couple weeks ago, and then the only thing I had left against him was the depth chart and his name.

So now he's on my target list.

That's fascinating. Thanks for sharing. The brain is a wild thing.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I will say I give a very slight positive push to the names I think are fun. I'm going to guess Decoldest Crawford will be biasedly high on my list.

But I've never considered this as a real factor. But that's the trick with biases, right?

 

[Ruffrodys05]

I think the absolute most important thing about having (generic or specific) evaluation biases (towards anything - players, teams, O lines, etc) is actually recognizing and admitting to ourselves that we do have them, then, being able to adjust accordingly.

Although, there have been occasions throughout my years playing that I've been fully aware of a particular bias and conscientiously did absolutely nothing to correct it. Those times basically came down to having a gut feeling and not wanting to ignore it. I've historically regretted ignoring my gut feelings many more times than I've regretted ignoring my biases.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

When I first heard of Nico Collins I figured anyone named Nico MUST be a smurf......

So did you draft Tank Dell instead?

 

[-OZ-]

y but I used to be a supervisor there for many years and would consider similar methodologies when evaluating them for their performance appraisals

We do this on hiring panels by policy. It’s a good practice.

 

[barackdhouse]

Ok I have another one. I *think*. I hope this isn't too abstract to fit into what we would call bias.

One question I try to ask myself this time of year is that out of all the trends in my own draft patterns up to this point in this offseason, for example - who am I underweight who am I overweight where should I adjust (Ray Davis) where should I stay the course (Brian Robinson) etc...

I try to ask myself what might the NFL / Fantasy landscapes look like come the end of say week 3? And in particular which narratives and or situations out there would I slap myself silly for not being dumb enough to have acted on with regards to my intuition back in July August whatever?

The bias being self-questioned there is whether I am maybe holding onto an older narrative that doesn't apply anymore. Or perhaps whether I'm too risk averse (or hesitant) to act on an instinct. (not me not my style but this is a thing for most people I'd say)

Seattle Seahawks might be an example of this for me. I've been relatively off on Metcalf most of the offseason because of a combination of ADP, being burned before and possibly being stuck in my head that Metcalf has hit his ceiling already and that we know who he is, but I kind of needed to hear the story in my head a couple times that ok no, Pete Carroll is gone, the new coach is a dude that runs *lots* of plays and a high pace and favors passing. Has said Metcalf would be doing more motion and a higher variety of routes.

And so then just like that my narrative on Seattle is like ok wait a minute there might be something here. Maybe JSN is a value maybe Charbs. Geno remains a gigantic question mark but nevertheless this is how the bias challenging process works for me. Or a part of it anyway. And I loathe waking up in week 3 going WTF didn't I draft this guy? I knew this would happen.

 

[barackdhouse]

Metcalf has been one of my favorite players for a while. How ticked off would I be if I faded him and then he wins fantasy this year? That can't happen.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Id be willing to bet the people who react to the july and august news show much worse fantasy results. Id be interested in seeing a brief study on this done. Anybody know where one could find historical fantasy values and/or adp?

Actually it led me to buy Puka in 2 leagues as the greatest 5th round dynasty pick I’ve ever made, or am ever likely to make.

Being able to sift the wheat from the chaff is a skill that can help you win at FF.

I’ve seen teams say negative things about rookies as well. It’s about listening to everything and evaluating critically.

Generalizing all preseason information as noise & dismissing it outright seems like a terrible idea to me, but to each their own.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

We do this on hiring panels by policy. It’s a good practice.

Same - back in my project management days, we had a policy of 3-person panel interviews. I was the most senior TPM, so I was part of any interview panel involving a technical project.

You’d be amazed at how many people misrepresented their skill set or experience on their resumes. Or maybe you wouldn’t if you’ve been interviewing people for a while.

 

[-OZ-]

We do this on hiring panels by policy. It’s a good practice.

Same - back in my project management days, we had a policy of 3-person panel interviews. I was the most senior TPM, so I was part of any interview panel involving a technical project.

You’d be amazed at how many people misrepresented their skill set or experience on their resumes. Or maybe you wouldn’t if you’ve been interviewing people for a while.

I’ve been a labor attorney and on hiring panels. You’re obviously right.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ve been a labor attorney and on hiring panels. You’re obviously right.

I’ve made more than 1 grown person cry by asking very specific technical questions about skills they clearly said they possessed.

I was relentless. I don’t like liars. lol

 

[BobbyLayne]

Fantasy Football: How to avoid personal bias in your drafts

Companion article - this is the piece by Dr Miller that prompted the interview

(feel like the video in 1st post goes deeper but if you only five minutes you could peruse this)

 

[Lansdowne]

When I first heard of Nico Collins I figured anyone named Nico MUST be a smurf......

How disorienting for me that a player named Justin Shorter is actually 6'4" lol

 

[Lansdowne]

There were probably people who avoided Jahan Dotson because they were reminded too much of Josh Doctson (similar name, both 1st round WRs drafted by Washington). And those people were probably better off for it to be quite honest.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

There were probably people who avoided Jahan Dotson because they were reminded too much of Josh Doctson (similar name, both 1st round WRs drafted by Washington). And those people were probably better off for it to be quite honest.

Hi there.

Though I actually avoided most Washington players during the Snyder/Rivera years.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There were probably people who avoided Jahan Dotson because they were reminded too much of Josh Doctson (similar name, both 1st round WRs drafted by Washington). And those people were probably better off for it to be quite honest.

I’m buying low on Dotson where I can this year.

Your cognitive bias is likely working against you in this case.

 

[Lansdowne]

There were probably people who avoided Jahan Dotson because they were reminded too much of Josh Doctson (similar name, both 1st round WRs drafted by Washington). And those people were probably better off for it to be quite honest.

I’m buying low on Dotson where I can this year.

Your cognitive bias is likely working against you in this case.

I actually tried multiple times to trade with the Dotson owner in my dynasty league and was turned down. Then the 2023 season happened and his value tanked and that same owner cut him this offseason. Waivers aren’t active yet but he’s on my watch list, though I’m probably not as high on him as you are currently.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

and that same owner cut him this offseason. Waivers aren’t active yet but he’s on my watch list, though I’m probably not as high on him as you are currently.

I’m high on him as a buy-low to bet on talent.

He showed out quite a bit his rookie season with super mediocre QB play. I, too, tried to deal for him but the asking price was a 1st+.

Then year 2 happened.

I’d read that in his 2nd year only 74% of his targets were even catchable, on a team with a terrible OL, questionable coaching, & a train wreck of ownership.

A good friend is a commanders fan & he’s bullish on him paired with a young strong-armed QB.

So I’m trying not to let my cognitive bias (sour grapes over not being able to deal for him, + some relief that I didn’t) sour me from a potential opportunity. If he’s a complete bust I won’t be thrilled, but it wasn’t a dynasty-ruining investment.

I think this is a good example of how our biases can sometimes make us miss the forest for the trees. The sort of thing where if I look at someone’s roster for a potential deal, I may not even see a player if I’m down on him. I think I’d be much better off if I were more open minded & instead saw every player’s potential value & adjusted my approach accordingly,

 

[cdclopper]

Am I avoiding Ray Davis because his name is vanilla plain?

Okay but he does have greenish looking eyes, it seems. Now what?

I'll respond with schtick but there is actually something to this - It is yet another kind of bias to look very deep at any one player, if it is being done at the expense of the rest of the pool. Unless we log every player's eye color then we run the risk of putting too much stock one way or the other in the guy we're taking that deeper dive with.

In all seriousness this is a thing, not they eye color bit but the question for example - "are we giving too much stock to stuff we see on Hard Knocks?" or if we are homers on a given NFL team or just happen to be plugged in more. that is a *great* thing as far as one's ability to have an informed reasonable take or set of takes on a given player or team or situation, but unless you're going that deep with every team and player and situation, then you're running a major bias risk.

I tried to articulate this idea but couldnt manage as well as you. My son just started playing fantasy this year, he only watched 1 rookie player and it was ladd mccockney. He likes Ladd, no joke, better than Nabers. He didnt watch Nabers.

Of course this makes an extreme example. But it is something that happens to all of us to some extent. Frankly its unavoidable.

 

[cdclopper]

Also there's collective biases too, is this a thing? For example, no matter what a late round player does on the field, he will never be judged fairly on that compared to that 1st rounder we all had our eyes on from the start.

 

[zed2283]

Yeah, I'm thinking this whole thing is overdone. It's how the brain works. It's unavoidable. Yeah, you can be aware of it. Great.

Also, I'm sure I just missed it, but I didn't see anything in the OP video that was informative or useful. The two portions I watched were:

2:30 - What is cognitive bias and how does it relate to fantasy football?
12:07 - What are some strategies to combat your biases in draft season and beyond?

And I didn't hear either of those questions answered or addressed. Or maybe I'm dense, so feel free to explain it.

What I get out of this discussion is basically if I have an opinion or an inclination, I have "cognitive bias." And you know what? I'm ok with that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What I get out of this discussion is basically if I have an opinion or an inclination, I have "cognitive bias." And you know what? I'm ok with that.

Video aside, the impression I took away from the discussion is more that if we stop to acknowledge/consider our own biases (opinions, inclinations) we can work to minimize them. Maybe that self-reflection will allow us to look at players differently.

I don’t mind the discussion about it. It might be useful even.

 

[Ray_T]

There were probably people who avoided Jahan Dotson because they were reminded too much of Josh Doctson (similar name, both 1st round WRs drafted by Washington). And those people were probably better off for it to be quite honest.

I’m buying low on Dotson where I can this year.

Your cognitive bias is likely working against you in this case.

well, this is the first year he has a QB who might be good. If its true, and his QB is actually good, I sense a breakout of sorts. I suspect his stats improve. I just dont know by how much exactly. but I do like him at his ADP right now. extremely good upside for a player taken that late in the draft.