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How do we identify a WR bust? (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

Footballguy
Looking back on some of the biggest WR busts, such as David Terrell, Rashaun Woods, Charles Rogers, Reggie Williams, and Roy Williams how can we as fantasy players avoid making these mistakes on our draft day? Rogers was a dope head, but how many knew this on their draft day? All we really know is the stat line or the police blotter, or what some scout says. I don't put too much into youtube highlights as some do, but really, what we don't know is probably the most important thing to know and that is what lies between his ears. His work ethic, his heart, his ability to mature, to go along with his talent. Who do you fear has the most bustability at WR in this draft? A lot of people are saying C Patterson, or Justin Hunter, or even Keenan Allen, the top ranked WR in the draft. There is just so much information that we don't have access to that is so important in the decision making process. Hell, if the NFL GMs can't get it right, I guess there is no hope for us either.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
I want to wait until the combine before going over them individually, but I think there are quite a few potential WR land mines in this year's draft.

 

BruceAlmighty

Footballguy
NFL GMs have been known to hire private investigators to surveil players and still don't get it right consistently. Personally, I usually take the best player and not worry so much about personal red flags. They arent gonna hurt my fantasy team's locker room.

 

Crippler

IBL Representative
There are huge busts are every position in the end. More WR for data would be Rod Gardner, Robert Meachum, Devin Thomas and Troy Williamson. What about Peter Warrick, Koren Robinson and Duante Stallworth who never lived up to expectations. There are a few guys that came and went quickly. Boston had a couple of nice seasons only. Braylon Edwards, Micheal Clayton and Mark Clayon are others.

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
Longevity and great stats are usually a result of a killer work ethic and a straight head. I think the Randy Moss type players are more rare. Guys like Fitz, Calvin, Jerry Rice that already have elite talent, but mix with that an insane work ethic and a personable edge litter the hall of fame. I'm very reluctant to take head cases. Look at the two WRs drafted next to each other a few years ago .... Nicks and Britt. Nicks, while having injury issues, is not a head case and has had, and will have, a much better career, even though Britt has more talent.

 

Kitrick Taylor

Footballguy
Longevity and great stats are usually a result of a killer work ethic and a straight head. I think the Randy Moss type players are more rare. Guys like Fitz, Calvin, Jerry Rice that already have elite talent, but mix with that an insane work ethic and a personable edge litter the hall of fame. I'm very reluctant to take head cases. Look at the two WRs drafted next to each other a few years ago .... Nicks and Britt. Nicks, while having injury issues, is not a head case and has had, and will have, a much better career, even though Britt has more talent.
If you pass on head cases though, you pass on Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Michael Crabtree, Chad Johnson, Plaxico Burress, TB Mike Williams, DeSean Jackson....its a pretty long list really. No other FF relevant position produces more talented and productive head cases. Also I don't want to derail the thread, but as I've posted elsewhere, I think Britt is a fantastic bounce back target. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if he's valued higher than Nicks' is a year from now. Way too early to write the career story on a 24 year old. But that goes to the overall point here. Some of these guys need a few years in the NFL to grow up. Basically, I don't think there are any sort of things you can categorically rule out. Let the NFL GMs make a lot of the decisions for you.
 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
Longevity and great stats are usually a result of a killer work ethic and a straight head. I think the Randy Moss type players are more rare. Guys like Fitz, Calvin, Jerry Rice that already have elite talent, but mix with that an insane work ethic and a personable edge litter the hall of fame. I'm very reluctant to take head cases. Look at the two WRs drafted next to each other a few years ago .... Nicks and Britt. Nicks, while having injury issues, is not a head case and has had, and will have, a much better career, even though Britt has more talent.
If you pass on head cases though, you pass on Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Michael Crabtree, Chad Johnson, Plaxico Burress, TB Mike Williams, DeSean Jackson....its a pretty long list really. No other FF relevant position produces more talented and productive head cases. Also I don't want to derail the thread, but as I've posted elsewhere, I think Britt is a fantastic bounce back target. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if he's valued higher than Nicks' is a year from now. Way too early to write the career story on a 24 year old. But that goes to the overall point here. Some of these guys need a few years in the NFL to grow up. Basically, I don't think there are any sort of things you can categorically rule out. Let the NFL GMs make a lot of the decisions for you.
Look at Dez, very ploraizing player. Monster no doubt, could scrub out at any second. I think Roy williams and Braylon edwards had immense talent and some good seasons, they just couldnt put it all together.
 

Two Deep

Footballguy
Jon Baldwin is heading in the David Terrell direction. It seems it must come down to desire. The want to learn all the nuances of the position. Route running, heading the list.

 

FUBAR

Footballguy
You're hitting on why, in larger leagues, I'd rather trade my late 1sts where these WRs are usually drafted, for 28ish year old WRs who are productive but undervalued.For example, guys like Colston, Austin, Garcon, Rice, and Bowe could probably be had for the same pick you'd have to use on the 3rd or 4th best WR from this year's class. They might not have the same ceiling but they're far more likely to produce WR2 type stats over the next 5 years.

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
Look at Dez, very ploraizing player. Monster no doubt, could scrub out at any second.
Why do you say that? Even when he wasn't getting the targets to put up top 3 numbers, his per target numbers were up there. He's always been one of the most productive guys with each individual target/catch.
But he has a very risky side, his off the field stuff, that alot of other dude have had. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if he went to jail or did somthing really dumb.
 

wiscstlatlmia

Footballguy
(what I tell you guys): well, theres quite a few factors yadda yadda yadda .... long few paragraphs later... and that's how you can tell if a WR is gonna be a bust or not.(The truth): I have no clue :shrug:ETA: understanding the fact that I don't KNOW who is going to bust actually helps , where now I just stock up on a bunch of potential guys at WR and hope 1 or 2 hit... it's not the answer to this question but its how I alleviate the decision-making process

 
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Concept Coop

Footballguy
Look at Dez, very ploraizing player. Monster no doubt, could scrub out at any second.
Why do you say that? Even when he wasn't getting the targets to put up top 3 numbers, his per target numbers were up there. He's always been one of the most productive guys with each individual target/catch.
But he has a very risky side, his off the field stuff, that alot of other dude have had. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if he went to jail or did somthing really dumb.
Got ya. I misunderstood what you meant. I thought you meant he might regress as a player and no longer be as effective in that aspect. Like Braylon Edwards after his big season.
 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
Look at Dez, very ploraizing player. Monster no doubt, could scrub out at any second.
Why do you say that? Even when he wasn't getting the targets to put up top 3 numbers, his per target numbers were up there. He's always been one of the most productive guys with each individual target/catch.
But he has a very risky side, his off the field stuff, that alot of other dude have had. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if he went to jail or did somthing really dumb.
Got ya. I misunderstood what you meant. I thought you meant he might regress as a player and no longer be as effective in that aspect. Like Braylon Edwards after his big season.
If Braylon had different QBs/systems his numbers might have been better. The one good season with Anderson clearly was the anomaly but he passed my eye test. not sure why it never clicked again
 

jurb26

Footballguy
You don't. You do as much research on a prospect as possible, hope to increase you're level of probability of being accurate and see what happens.There is no full proof way.

 

JohnnyU

Footballguy
Look at Dez, very ploraizing player. Monster no doubt, could scrub out at any second.
Why do you say that? Even when he wasn't getting the targets to put up top 3 numbers, his per target numbers were up there. He's always been one of the most productive guys with each individual target/catch.
But he has a very risky side, his off the field stuff, that alot of other dude have had. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if he went to jail or did somthing really dumb.
Got ya. I misunderstood what you meant. I thought you meant he might regress as a player and no longer be as effective in that aspect. Like Braylon Edwards after his big season.
If Braylon had different QBs/systems his numbers might have been better. The one good season with Anderson clearly was the anomaly but he passed my eye test. not sure why it never clicked again
Braylon Edwards never was the same after that season of the dropsies. Now he's never been one with great hands, but that one year was ridiculous. Then he had some injuries, bad quarterbacking, and his confidence was shot.
 

GregR

Footballguy
I agree if the NFL team's can't get it right, it's not very likely we fantasy players will who don't have access to the same information.For leagues who wait to hold their rookie draft until camps open, I've found paying a lot of attention to early camp reports is beneficial.

 

Warrior

Footballguy
The same way you win at poker. Be better at it than the other people at the table and eventually you'll rise to the top, even with a few bad beats/busts along the way.

 

lyon812

Footballguy
Mostly, it's a crapshoot. The only factor I've had any sort of success with is avoiding WRs that are reportedly poor route runners. You see it a lot with the annual "great raw athlete, needs refinement" types. DHB, Jon Baldwin, and Stephen Hill come to mind as obvious recent examples of people I've avoided. Sure, the jury's still out on them, but it doesn't matter how fast/strong/tall you are if you can't get to the right spot or continually frustrate your QB. Let someone else gamble on them figuring it out. Mind you, there have been plenty of "good route runners" that have busted, too.

 

JackReacher

Footballguy
If you have any doubts about a guy, check who is under center. QB plays huge role in my WR choices, even for my fliers in dynasty.

 
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coolnerd

Footballguy
A few things come to mind on Wrs- there is no specific body type/athletic measurable that is successful. We hae everything from Calvin Johnson(6'5" 245) to Wes Welker (5'9" 185)-offensive system does matter. -the quality of Qb does matter-ability to beat press coverage by either strength, quickness or guile is hard to measure watching college tape.

 
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DropKick

Footballguy
Head and health are usually the two biggest factors. Beware of bad organizations too.
And conversely good organizations or good opportunities. For example, I'd give a clear edge to guys drafted by the Colts, Saints or Chargers (void), among others.
 

lod01

Footballguy
Besides what has been mentioned, I read about their announcement of declaring for the draft. Anyone mentioning money get a red flag, Robert Meachem. Not a killer but I will watch their combine and minicamps more closely if I was interested in them out of college.Combine: I watch the gauntlet and other receiving drills and you better catch it with your hands or you are crossed off my list. This is the best chance to see guys competing with the same QBs throwing to them. Skip certain drills, red flag.Mini camps are excellent info. Last year, A.J Jenkins got crossed right off my draftboard when they said he was not looking great. There's no contact, you better be wowing people in minicamp. Patterson will be that type of guy this year. If he doesn't wow in minicamp, look out.

 

JohnnyU

Footballguy
Mini camps are excellent info. Last year, A.J Jenkins got crossed right off my draftboard when they said he was not looking great. There's no contact, you better be wowing people in minicamp. Patterson will be that type of guy this year. If he doesn't wow in minicamp, look out.
I read that Jenkins is really working hard this off-season to improve. He said he's going to be stronger, faster, and work on his route running. He said he's going to dedicate himself completely to be a better player.
 

sho nuff

Footballguy
Besides what has been mentioned, I read about their announcement of declaring for the draft. Anyone mentioning money get a red flag, Robert Meachem. Not a killer but I will watch their combine and minicamps more closely if I was interested in them out of college.Combine: I watch the gauntlet and other receiving drills and you better catch it with your hands or you are crossed off my list. This is the best chance to see guys competing with the same QBs throwing to them. Skip certain drills, red flag.Mini camps are excellent info. Last year, A.J Jenkins got crossed right off my draftboard when they said he was not looking great. There's no contact, you better be wowing people in minicamp. Patterson will be that type of guy this year. If he doesn't wow in minicamp, look out.
Patterson has a ton of all around talent...but is definitely raw as far as route running.
 

lod01

Footballguy
Mini camps are excellent info. Last year, A.J Jenkins got crossed right off my draftboard when they said he was not looking great. There's no contact, you better be wowing people in minicamp. Patterson will be that type of guy this year. If he doesn't wow in minicamp, look out.
I read that Jenkins is really working hard this off-season to improve. He said he's going to be stronger, faster, and work on his route running. He said he's going to dedicate himself completely to be a better player.
That was my problem with him. He should have come ino the league with that attitude. Guys that last the longest in the league with consistent year to year stats are the ones busting their ### from day 1 and understand that it's their job.
 

cstu

Footballguy
Mini camps are excellent info. Last year, A.J Jenkins got crossed right off my draftboard when they said he was not looking great. There's no contact, you better be wowing people in minicamp. Patterson will be that type of guy this year. If he doesn't wow in minicamp, look out.
I read that Jenkins is really working hard this off-season to improve. He said he's going to be stronger, faster, and work on his route running. He said he's going to dedicate himself completely to be a better player.
That was my problem with him. He should have come ino the league with that attitude. Guys that last the longest in the league with consistent year to year stats are the ones busting their ### from day 1 and understand that it's their job.
If you write off guys based on not being ready for their first minicamp you're going to miss out on a lot of good players.
 

lod01

Footballguy
Mini camps are excellent info. Last year, A.J Jenkins got crossed right off my draftboard when they said he was not looking great. There's no contact, you better be wowing people in minicamp. Patterson will be that type of guy this year. If he doesn't wow in minicamp, look out.
I read that Jenkins is really working hard this off-season to improve. He said he's going to be stronger, faster, and work on his route running. He said he's going to dedicate himself completely to be a better player.
That was my problem with him. He should have come ino the league with that attitude. Guys that last the longest in the league with consistent year to year stats are the ones busting their ### from day 1 and understand that it's their job.
If you write off guys based on not being ready for their first minicamp you're going to miss out on a lot of good players.
Like who?
 

Drop

Footballguy
If you see a guy running the gauntlet drill full speed and he is staying on a straight line and plucking the ball without breaking stride (not jump catching) it will tell you a lot about the natural quality of pass catcher he is. Some players get eaten up by the ball and it actually pushes them off course as they are adjusting to it. There is a certain look to the execution of the drill that players who can run the in breaking routes fundamentally accurate have. Body control with respect to maintaining speed as you adjust to the force of the football as you are moving your body parts to catch it is a game speed nuance. The various forces of inertia are handled much better by some players than others and I think handing it allows players to play faster because the motions blend to be one continuous effort, which is fundamentally ideal. Sometimes players with stone hands or butterfingers don't get called out for their stiff body movements, but in many cases they can't catch because they don't have the fluidity to adjust as they are moving at high speeds. It's not always strictly a hand eye coordination thing, it's a loss of functional strength due to fluidity issues so it hits them in the hands but their body isn't braced correctly and they can't cushion the blow to stop the balls momentum properly.

 

identikit

Footballguy
If you see a guy running the gauntlet drill full speed and he is staying on a straight line and plucking the ball without breaking stride (not jump catching) it will tell you a lot about the natural quality of pass catcher he is. Some players get eaten up by the ball and it actually pushes them off course as they are adjusting to it. There is a certain look to the execution of the drill that players who can run the in breaking routes fundamentally accurate have. Body control with respect to maintaining speed as you adjust to the force of the football as you are moving your body parts to catch it is a game speed nuance. The various forces of inertia are handled much better by some players than others and I think handing it allows players to play faster because the motions blend to be one continuous effort, which is fundamentally ideal. Sometimes players with stone hands or butterfingers don't get called out for their stiff body movements, but in many cases they can't catch because they don't have the fluidity to adjust as they are moving at high speeds. It's not always strictly a hand eye coordination thing, it's a loss of functional strength due to fluidity issues so it hits them in the hands but their body isn't braced correctly and they can't cushion the blow to stop the balls momentum properly.
:goodposting:Also funny, coming from 'Drop.' :D
 
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