How do you create your rankings? (1 Viewer)

[I was in the pool]

Curious to hear how everyone creates their positional rankings. What factors? Do you use formulas or just your gut?

 

[Concept Coop]

Who would I take first in a startup draft? Who would I take second? Third? And so on. I have yet to see a formula that would work. Putting subjective inforamtion into a mathmatic formula will only give you more subjective information.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Who would I take first in a startup draft? Who would I take second? Third? And so on. I have yet to see a formula that would work. Putting subjective inforamtion into a mathmatic formula will only give you more subjective information.

But you have to start somewhere. Do you simply take the previous seasons rankings and resort based on your opinion?I take the past 3 years offensives stats for each team—total plays from scrimmage and calculate the percentage of pass attempts, sacks, rush attempts. If a new coach has been hired during that period I would place more emphasis on those percentages than the 3 year average. Things such as Oline talent impacts the sack % and overall number of plays I project a team to run.Once I project the total number of plays, pass att, rush att I then allocate rush attempts and targets for individual players based on their 3 year averages. If the player is young I put more emphasis on the previous season. After I have all the projections done I use a SOS and travel to tweak individual projections.I then have a ranking I can start from. At that point I can move players up and down the list based on my preference, however I am very conservative about moving players up and down too dramatically.I enjoy doing crunching the numbers and it allows me to find out about certain players that may hold value later in the draft. For instance, I can recall crunching the numbers a couple of years ago and Fred Jackson really jumped out at me because in limited touches he was very productive. I am not saying FJax will wion you a championship, but he makes a very nice injury/bye week option.

 

[Concept Coop]

But you have to start somewhere. Do you simply take the previous seasons rankings and resort based on your opinion?I take the past 3 years offensives stats for each team—total plays from scrimmage and calculate the percentage of pass attempts, sacks, rush attempts. If a new coach has been hired during that period I would place more emphasis on those percentages than the 3 year average. Things such as Oline talent impacts the sack % and overall number of plays I project a team to run.Once I project the total number of plays, pass att, rush att I then allocate rush attempts and targets for individual players based on their 3 year averages. If the player is young I put more emphasis on the previous season. After I have all the projections done I use a SOS and travel to tweak individual projections.I then have a ranking I can start from. At that point I can move players up and down the list based on my preference, however I am very conservative about moving players up and down too dramatically.I enjoy doing crunching the numbers and it allows me to find out about certain players that may hold value later in the draft. For instance, I can recall crunching the numbers a couple of years ago and Fred Jackson really jumped out at me because in limited touches he was very productive. I am not saying FJax will wion you a championship, but he makes a very nice injury/bye week option.

What you outline is re-draft specific, as far as using it as a list. I can understand using it as a starting place. But again, you have to decide who you value, in what order. No stat is going to do that in a dynasty format. Doing what you have outlined would suggest Jackson is far more valuable than C.J. Spiller. Why start with a list that would suggest that? Why start with a list you will need to greatly alter? Just my opinion and the reason I don't. I start with with a set of projections (I do the top guys and let FBG do the tedious work) and a blank sheet of paper (screen, actually). Then I list the first RB I would take, then the second, and so on. A lot goes into that, as far a research, but nothing I can plug into a formula.

 

[jdgsatx]

I can tell you what I am not going to do this year.. thats put more weight on the "experts" opinions to determine rankings. Grab last seasons ADP charts and see how players numbers looked at the end of the season. The terms "value" and "reach" absolutely killed my draft. How can it be determined that taking LeSean McCoy as the fourth RB overall is a reach before any games have been played? I'm going to build my team around guys I enjoy watching and that I believe will have good years.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Curious to hear how everyone creates their positional rankings. What factors? Do you use formulas or just your gut?

For veterans, I look backwards three years (maximum), as long as that window is appropriate - for a guy whose role has changed for better or worse in the past season, I shorten that window (Cadillac Williams is no longer the starting RB in Tampa Bay, for example. He is a third-down back now). For example, Roddy White has been the lead WR in Atlanta for the past four years, so an average of his past three years of production gives a decent baseline for what we might reasonably expect from him in 2011. Of course, this year the Falcons are looking to upgrade with a complementary deep threat across from White, which may move my projections for him up or down depending on which free agent or rookie the team adds to play across from White. In other words, once I have a backwards-looking average for a veteran, I then consider what factors may have changed the team dynamic going forwards, and what may have changed for the player personally. New coaches, new team-mates, etc. regarding the team dynamic. For example, if somehow the Falcons traded Matt Ryan for Peyton Manning, I'd assume a substantial bump in the Falcon's overall passing numbers for 2012 (+800-1000 yards). On the personal level, if there were a nagging injury issue for White (a degenerating meniscus in his knee, a third shoulder surgery a la Chad Pennington) or a known substance abuse problem (like Vincent Jackson's bottle problem), I note these sorts of items as non-quantitative factors with "-" marks. When I do my overall rankings or positional rankings, players with more negative marks fall below players with lesser negative marks given an equal range of projections. After I've done these preliminary steps, I create a fairly tight range of numbers that I project as reasonable for any given player. In White's case (assuming Matt Ryan is the starter in 2012), 1200-1300 yards and 9-10 TDs looks like a fair starting point for White 2012. This will be adjusted once the draft and free agency happen, but that's where I'll start for White this coming year. I don't know of any serious injury or off-field concerns regarding White, so he'll have zero negative marks to start the 2012 off-season. Rookies and free agents get treated more subjectively, as past numbers (in college or at the pro level) are not terribly strong indicators of future numbers in year one of a new assignment. The numbers can be dramatically better (Peyton Hillis exploded in year one with Cleveland) or dramatically worse (Brandon Marshall in Miami 2011) when moving from team to team (or from college to the pros). Jahvid Best looked as good as I expected with the Lions early in the year (he has game-breaking potential IMO), but his full season was a disappointment due to injury issues (which his past history warned us might be the case). There is no formula to put on "fragile" or "easily dinged up", but there are some guys who play well when hurt (Hillis), and some who can't or don't (Best). Thus my non-quantitative "negative marks". Also, it is important to remember that projections and rankings are an iterative process. As we get more information on how any given team's offensive line is jelling (or struggling), and/or how teams are responding (or not responding) to their new offensive coordinator, we tweak projections and rankings throughout the summer team-building process. Once an initial set of rankings are done, they are simply a raw approximation of what those sets will look like after umpteen iterations/revisions. HTH. MW