I don't have any scientific formula or consistent approach that I use. I guess if I had to outline my process I'd say it goes something like this:
- Build a list of players. I check the rankings on sites like NFL Draft Scout. I look at NCAA stats to see which players are thriving. I read draft forums to find new names from homers and fans who might know about players outside my region. If they mention somebody who sounds interesting, I take a look for myself. I also keep a loose watch on high school recruiting rankings, which helps build some familiarity with each group of players before they even step on the field in the NCAA. Many players like Lache Seastrunk, Julio Jones, Adrian Peterson, AJ Green, and Andrew Luck were known as potential prodigies from an early age.
- I watch games and highlights. For QBs, I think it's necessary to watch complete games to see how the players function. I look for things like consistency, accuracy, poise, demeanor (confidence), improvisational ability, and arm strength. I think the NFL does a good job of weeding out the players who lack the physical talent to succeed, so mainly what you need to do is try to determine who has the right stuff between the ears. Stats can help in that regard, but you're not going to get all the answers from a stat sheet or a highlight reel. I think you need to see how a QB functions in the flow of the game (or several games) before you can really know him. On the other hand, I think highlights will tell you most of what you need to know about a RB/WR/TE since success at those positions largely hinges on pure physical ability (and physical ability is apparent very quickly). I think I can get a rough idea if a RB/WR/TE has NFL potential based on a few minutes of clips, but I typically go deeper than that once my interest is piqued. These days you can find game cuts for most high-profile draft prospects. It's also pretty easy to find complete games on YouTube for most major BCS contests. If I'm really stuck on a player, what I'll sometimes do is pull up a game on YouTube, look at the play-by-play on ESPN, and watch every one of his touches/targets/etc.
- In terms of what traits I'm looking for, it would take me a long time to thoroughly explain that. To put it simply, at RB I'm looking for active feet, economy of movement (fluidity), quickness/elusiveness, power, speed, vision, and body type. There are lots of different styles that can work though, so one or two flaws aren't necessarily a dealbreaker if other things are exceptional. At WR/TE, I'm looking for economy of movement, quickness out of breaks (probably the most important trait), body type, body control, hands, speed, and open field skills. I already said a bit about QBs, but to put it more simply I look for consistent and productive passers who never get rattled or scared. I think one of the hallmark signs of an elite QB is that you
expect his team to score every time he has the ball instead of
hoping that he'll score. Obviously there's a lot more to it than that, but I've done reasonably well at this position over the years by simply avoiding guys whose production doesn't match their hype and/or physical tools.
- I look at combine numbers. If a prospect has special physical qualities, they will often show up in the testing. Looking at the height/weight in conjunction with results in the drills is also a really good way to crystallize the player's style and find NFL parallels. That can then help you understand how similar players have succeeded/failed in the past, which can in turn inform your analysis of that player's chances. Having said that, I'll offer a word of caution. I don't think combine numbers can give you a comprehensive understanding of a player's physical tools. For my money, there is no drill around that can gauge overall fluidity or first step quickness. And those two traits can carry a player a long way in football. Just look at LeSean McCoy and Anquan Boldin. Likewise, I think the numbers flat out lie sometimes. The numbers say Chad Johnson and Antonio Brown are terrible athletes with no explosiveness. Anyone who saw those guys play in their prime would know otherwise.
- Partially for that reason, I've become an increasingly big fan of watching the players run through the position drills at the combine. I find that I can sometimes get a better sense for movement skills in that environment than I can from watching grainy bird's eye footage of players in pads and uniforms. Strange as it might sound, I've found that something as simple as the sock color can affect my perception of a player from one reel to another. Seeing them in a neutral environment where they can't hide helps cut through a lot of that. Watching these guys last year, there seemed to be a decent correlation between
how impressive they looked in the drills and how well they adapted to the NFL. So that's something I'll be keying on this year.
- I also read other sources to get their take on players. There's lots of awful analysis out there, but if you find some sources you can trust then it can be helpful. The guys at College Football News (cfn.scout.com) don't get a lot of attention, but their work is generally very good. Tony Pauline and Rob Rang are good. I also think the guys at NEPatriotsDraft.com have pretty good assessments on players. If I'm on the fence about a player, sometimes I'll just defer the consensus among my trusted sources.
- Lastly, I look at draft position. It's probably the single most important objective variable to consider since there's a clear and significant relationship between how high someone is drafted and how good of a career he's likely to have. I try to develop a strong understanding of players before the draft, but after the draft I use the draft order as a rough starting point for assembling my final rankings. I allow myself a lot of movement within tiers (for example favoring one top 32 pick over another top 32 pick), but I try not to do too much movement across tiers (for example ranking a 6th round NFL draft pick ahead of a 1st round NFL draft pick). I find that being aggressive within tiers and conservative across tiers is a good way to ensure that I still end up with a lot of "my guys" while also preventing myself from making too many criminal reaches.
