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How do you pick your starters? (1 Viewer)

B

benson_will_lead_the_way

Footballguy
How do you pick starters for your fantasy team?

Use FBG's? Message boards or Joe's official cheatsheet?

Another website?

Go with your gut?

Go with the red hot players?

Play your stud?

How do you guys pick them?

I generally won't gamble unless I have to. So I go with studs, then with players that have consistantly put together a few good weeks before I insert them into my lineup.

But how do you guys do it?

 
I flip a coin.

But seriously, it really comes down to doing your homework/matchups/gut....with some outside help sprinkled in.

 
This is a good topic. I've struggled with my efficiency rating ever since I began playing fantasy football.

I always struggle with matchups and whenever I think I have a guy pegged for a big game I usually leave a ton of points on my bench.

In one league I'm 7-2, but could be 9-0 if I hadn't left points on my bench. I always think it's better to get blown out than to know that if you thought more about your players situations you could have had the victory. Waiting a week in anticipation just to give away a win sucks.

 
I usually go...

1: Look at the last few weeks for consistency. Last thing I need is to start a guy who had a hot week 4 weeks ago (while I wait for that hot week) and has done nothing since while letting a guy who's been consistently mediocre rot on the bench. It's the idea of do I go for the boom/bust or the get what you see.

2: Matchups. Also injuries come into play here. If a defense is better but decimated vs. a poor healthy defense, I'll likely start the player against the decimated defense.

3: Gut intuition.

 
1. Studs - play them

2. Match-ups against bad D's

3. Gut feeling

I submit my line-ups for "this week's" games while the Sunday games are playing for "last week".

Obviously, website listings don't come out for 3-4 days after I submit my line-up.

I rarely change them unless an injury occurs or news comes up that changes my gut feeling.

 
studs play. until they prove they aren't "really" studs

play matchups b/w lesser equally rated players. with matchups, i go alot by "how" the game should play out. RBs on teams that should be winning, QB/WRs on teams that should be losing, kind of thing. i don't use matchups as much for WRs and QBs. i don't think they are as predictable as week-to-week RB matchups.

one absolue last resort i use, if i absolutely don't see one option being better than another, i'll choose one that's playing on sunday or monday night. this is an unpredictable game that we play for fun. it's more fun to have players in primetime. it's not as much fun to have no one left to play come sunday at 8PM.

 
there was a post at least a year ago asking the same question. One of the posters said something like:

he turns on his tape recorder, mixes a potion of drugs and drink and screams out his players name as he passes out. After he wakes up, he starts whoever he mentioned on the tape. i couldn't find on search, but it was one of my favs

 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
How do you pick starters for your fantasy team?Use FBG's? Message boards or Joe's official cheatsheet?Another website?Go with your gut?Go with the red hot players?Play your stud?How do you guys pick them?I generally won't gamble unless I have to. So I go with studs, then with players that have consistantly put together a few good weeks before I insert them into my lineup.But how do you guys do it?
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This is a very good question, and one we should spend more time talking about in general.Besides the answers already given, I'll add a few comments as to how to help decide - just understand that anything can happen and the likelihood that you'll always be right is very slim.1. Targets. If you're picking a WR, TE or a RB in PPR leagues or receivers in general, the best player in the world doesn't matter unless they get the ball thrown their way. This stat alone has covered me on several occasions. Read the game recaps too (hopefully a good one) and you'll see what happened on each target. It's possible the WR scored last week but it was called back due to a penalty. Case in point - LJ Smith nearly had a TD last week vs. Dallas, but he fell out of bounds making the catch. That's something you won't see in the statbook.3. Touches. Similar to targets, but it pertains mostly to RBs. I'll take a RB that gets 20 carries over one that gets 10, all else being equal (and no, ADP with 10 touches isn't equal to anyone else with 15-20).4. Supporting cast. This helps with WRs some (is the RB hurt? The other starting WR hurt? What about the QB?) and also works similarly with the RBs. RBs are more influenced by the O-line, so you better read up on the injuries of your RB's line as well. At QB, if your O-line is nicked or if your WRs are ailing, that won't help you.5. Matchups - not just the applicable one but also the others. For example, Big Ben has a good matchup vs. Cleveland this week, but FWP has an even better matchup on the ground. Is Ben likely to have a monster game? Probably not since FWP and the other RBs will get work too. Santonio Holmes at less than 100% also affects things for him.6. 1 > 2 > 3 > 4. We're talking WRs here. Targets play a factor here, but if you are considering a choice between say Shaun McDonald and Amani Toomer, I'd go with Toomer because he's the #2 WR vs. the #3 in Detroit (for example - no hard and fast rule here). That's not to say I wouldn't start Boldin and/or Fitz over a #1 for Minnesota (that's a clear choice), but it is something to consider and a possible "tiebreaker" for you.7. Prior matchups / experience. Some players just seem to "own" other teams. Michael Strahan kills the Eagles, so he's great for IDP purposes on those games. Tony Romo is near the top of the rankings this week, and if you have Big Ben or Favre or another QB near the top as well, you might look back and see that he absolutely demolished the Giants last time and give him the nod.Again - this isn't a perfect science - the only way to always get it right is to have your lineup just fill itself in via a Best Ball league.
 
In this order (roughly):

Is one of the players considered actually a stud so that he really should not be benched? (e.g., I benched LJ the past few weeks as I had concluded he was no longer a stud; though I had ADP to start in his place, so that's not really fair)

How competent is my player's offense (e.g., good QB, OL, supporting players)

Opposing defense

How focal is my player in his own offense? Run offense/pass offense; the likelihood my guy will see enough touchest to produce. (e.g., targets are critical)

Opposing offense (will it be a shootout or played in the trenches?)

FBG Rankings

Weather/dome

Is it a Sunday night or MNF game so I can watch one of my players through a whole game?

After playing for about 2-3 years I entirely stopped asking anyone else's advice (e.g., forums). You get to a point you have enough sense to start the right players given the odds and appreciate everyone else is guessing too.

I think that's about it.

 
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1- My best players- I don't want a guy who is CLEARLY superior setting on the bench no matter the match up. The CLEARLY is often not easy as i would like it to be. Most important in my mind by a huge margin.

2- Matchups- It does matter who players are playing against, but I too often see owner over analyze this.

3- Gut- On a given week, this maybe number two especially when several match-up sare fairly close. Really, I think the better your general knowledge and research is the more accurate your "gut" becomes.

I consider when really stuck

Targets/Touches etc- On a given week, a particular game is too random. Also, my concern is production, and while I understand that a player with more chances should out produce one with less, I care more about a player's ability to contribute with the touches he does earn.

I never consider (sorry joe)

Cheatsheets- Probably unfathomable on this board, but predicting the order of players seems pointless for me. The listing is taking into consideration what I have already considered. In a given league, I am normally only thinking about two or maybe three players for a spot and the few times I have looked at cheatsheets, the players will be ranked like 14, 15, and 17 i.e. not enough difference to be useful.

 
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Depends on how my team's doing. If we're doing pretty well and the guys I have in there are gelling and have really built some chemistry, I don't like to change it. Roethlisberger and Burress has been a great connection all year. Those guys have really developed some chemistry and are playing well together. Until someone gives me reason to sit them - poor performance, locker room trouble, poor work ethic, etc.- I'll play them. Locker room trouble is especially one thing I won't tolerate. I refuse to accept any divas causing trouble in my locker room. It's a 9 man team. Everyone needs to realize that.

 
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This late in the season, I usually play matchups(NFL.com, listing the teams playing the best against the run, and find out which of my players are playing the worst of those teams). Also, I give a certain credibility to the guys over at fantasyfootballcafe. They're start/sit's are usually pretty good.

 
coolnerd said:
I never consider (sorry joe) Cheatsheets- Probably unfathomable on this board, but predicting the order of players seems pointless for me. The listing is taking into consideration what I have already considered. In a given league, I am normally only thinking about two or maybe three players for a spot and the few times I have looked at cheatsheets, the players will be ranked like 14, 15, and 17 i.e. not enough difference to be useful.
Click to expand...
To me... cheatsheets are actually a pretty useful tool, but not for telling me who to play. Typically I use the factors listed above, in an order somewhat like1) Studs - but they're not unbenchable. See Steve Smith.1b) Matchups - Almost as important. Does the opponent have two solid corners or only 1? How's their D line look? Divisional matchups are always weird, so stay away if possible.2) Targets. Underrated stat for receivers IMO.3) Gut. Nuff said.Typical "Gut Factors":a) Weather. For different reasons. Rain = Bad QB/good RB. Dome = Good Kicker.b) Game tape. This year... Wynn, Chris Brown, soon to be Kolby Smith ( ??? ), etc. No tape is hard to prepare for. Not a certainty, but this can be a solid X factor.c) Don't chase points. They're gone. Trends are one thing, one big game from an unknown commodity is usually something else ( see item 5). Cheatsheets aren't a deciding input, but I use them constantly to make myself rethink my own choices. Now that Dodds and Bloom are both putting up options its even better ( though it'd be nice if you could see them side-by-side ( [webmaster rant] or keep my last scoring choice defaulted for god's sake [/webmaster rant] )). If Bloom has Fargas ranked lower than Maurice Morris, I want to see it so I can think about whether I missed anything on my own evals, or if its just his gut against mine. If that's all I can find, then his gut loses.
 
i never play matchups. I guess I'm in the extreme minority here but I always always always play the most talented player. I never sit a guy because he's playing a rough team that week or I never start a marginal player because he has an "easy" game. There is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL. How many weeks do you expect guys to absolutely explode and they don't do squat. Who saw Adrian Peterson breaking the NFL rushing record last week against SD? Some people sat him on these boards for far lesser players due to matchups. Play the guys who have the most talent, talent normally wins out

 
Loopdog said:
i never play matchups. I guess I'm in the extreme minority here but I always always always play the most talented player. I never sit a guy because he's playing a rough team that week or I never start a marginal player because he has an "easy" game. There is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL. How many weeks do you expect guys to absolutely explode and they don't do squat. Who saw Adrian Peterson breaking the NFL rushing record last week against SD? Some people sat him on these boards for far lesser players due to matchups. Play the guys who have the most talent, talent normally wins out
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I look at matchups, but they aren't the sole determining factor for me. You're right, I've seen too many times where the expected result of a matchup doesn't come to fruition.I saw targets mentioned, but does anybody look at pass attempts for QBs?
 
I'm done with playing your studs theory. I'm going off...

1 - Matchup - I love playing WR vs. weak secondaries and RB vs teams that can't score (hopefully pound the ball)

2 - Recent History - Play hot guys

3 - Go with your first instinct. That would've won me at least two more games this year.

I've been burned too many times with strictly playing studs. I basically buried my season last week when I came on these boards seeking advice and ended up benching Lendale to start FWP because he was "my stud". I read the FWP thread and 5-7 guys kept saying "you've gotta play your studs" and I bought it. Difference of 11 points and I lost by 6.

 
I am sorry guys but i just look at the FBG or other sites rankings for fun , cause they are worthless .

I use my own rankings and that s how you should do it , i left so many points on the board using those rankings that you see all over so i dont trust any of them .

Of course your studs ( Real studs should play all the time , and theire are not that many )

then matchups and your instinct .

 
In addition to many of the other factors mentioned, I will also look at over/unders. If I'm having a really hard time deciding between two players, I usually prefer to start the player involved in the game that is predicted to be higher scoring.

 
Weather is a big factor. A few weeks ago, I had Eli Manning in my lineup early Sunday Morning. He was playing the Dolphins in London and all the rankings had him at or near the top of the lists for QBs. I got the report that it was raining and the field was slick, so I threw him on the bench before kickoff. He finished with 59 yards passing.

Moral of the story... rankings mean nothing when Mother Nature plays.

 
Pretty simple

1. Play the studs. For me, this means LT, Portis, Edwards, and TO do not get benched.

2. "Hot hand" - as much as I don't want to admit it, this matters. For now, VY is benched, Ben starts; Evans is in after getting benched earlier.

3. Matchup - weekly Boldin vs. HWard vs. Roy Williams; Shockey vs. ODaniels vs. Scaife. This is where FBG rankings come in, this week I'm really not sure on Boldin/Roy, so I use FBG's projections.

4. Matchup vs. opponent. If he has Kitna, I'd be slightly more likely to play Roy. In this league, each player is available 2x, so if I'm playiing against Roy, I'm probably starting Roy.

Sometimes I am tempted to use matchup over stud; last week I almost had Losman in over Ben, thankfully I decided to use Ben.

 
I use the cheat sheets and follow them meticulously, regardless of my own particular thoughts on the matter. That way if I lose it's not my fault and I can write up a whiny post about how I'm getting ripped off by so-called experts.

 
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