How do you "stay ahead of the curve" (1 Viewer)

[fun-b]

Just interested in hearing some of the tactics utilized by other fantasy footballers.

Personally, I play in a 4 player keeper league, and try to draft anywhere from 3-5 rookies every year (19 player rosters). It helps that I've read Footballguys almost everyday in the offseason for roughly the past 3 years.

Last year I got lucky on guys like D. Jackson, T. Hightower, E. Royal, and C. Johnson. I will probably never match that draft again. They pretty much all landed me insane trade value later on in the season, considering I drafted nearly all them in the last rounds. Not Johnson though, took him Round 3, which equates to Round 7, and was the only one I didn't trade.

No, this isn't a "pat myself on the back" thread. I'm just trying to express how valuable drafting rookies can be in re-draft or keeper leagues. While people are drafting guys like Jamal Lewis, I'm drafting guys like Wells, Harvin, Brown, or Moreno. But I admit, it does help playing in a 10 team league where 3-4 people draft strictly out of magazines. For the most part though, my league-mates are educated, as some of them have found out about Footballguys. I may have to overpay for Percy Harvin because I've heard some mention his name as their "sleeper" as I just think to myself, "not if I draft him first". Donald Brown seems to be under the radar though for the most part, which I really like.

Basically, what I want to say is........

I don't need NFL experience to convince me that a guy is good. Just watch video. A guy "has it" or he doesn't. I'll take talent over situation any day of the week.

 

[MAC_32]

Beyond following reports throughout the offseason I watch a lot of football. College, preseason, a lot. Some say you can't get anything out of watching preseason and college games, I disagree. I agree that looking at the stat line probably doesn't say much, but actually watching the games? I'll let others disagree, and use it to my advantage.

I think analyzing teams offseason's can give you an advantage too. Coaching changes, quotes, personnel changes, and not just skill positions. Following these changes and trying to predict what they want to do is something many don't do.

 

[fun-b]

I admittedly don't watch as much college football as I should.

But I can tell you that DeMarco Murray and C.J. Spiller are already on my fantasy football radar.

 

[dirty_martini]

Success depends on the big uglies up front. Pay attention to who signed where and who's injured.

Realize that serviceable RB2-3s and WR2-3s are all over the waiver wire - in the your last rounds draft potential home runs. If you hit one, you win. If you strike out, you can go get a serviceable guy on waivers and be no worse off. Drafting rookies like the OP falls into this category.

Finally, don't play last year over again. It's very rare for a top performer at any position to repeat as the top performer.

 

[MAC_32]

I admittedly don't watch as much college football as I should.But I can tell you that DeMarco Murray and C.J. Spiller are already on my fantasy football radar.

I'm with you on Spiller, real anxious to see how he does with the feature load and an offense that isn't awful. Murray? Not so much.

 

[runner06]

Realize that serviceable RB2-3s and WR2-3s are all over the waiver wire - in the your last rounds draft potential home runs. If you hit one, you win. If you strike out, you can go get a serviceable guy on waivers and be no worse off. Drafting rookies like the OP falls into this category.

Great advice. I'd like to add to this that I think the best time to find waiver wire gems is weeks 1-3 so don't be afraid to cut the cord on your late round draft choices quickly.

 

[CMU37484]

One of the things I watch very carefully once the season starts that many guys tend to nnot take very seriously is ""TARGETS"

I play on a PPR league and last year I snagged BOTH Greg Camarillo and Lance Moore off waivers about a week before they started to really contibute. Why? Because they were getting lots of looks even without the final stats.

This web site gives out great info. on targets and it's one of the most imporant sets of data for me.

If a guy catches a a 50 yard TD pass but only had 2 targets the entire game I'm more interested in the guy who caught 4 passes for 60 yards on 8 targets. I realize the guy who caught the TD scored more fantasy points but opportunity is key.

 

[Tom Servo]

One of the things I watch very carefully once the season starts that many guys tend to not take very seriously is "TARGETS" ... If a guy catches a a 50 yard TD pass but only had 2 targets the entire game I'm more interested in the guy who caught 4 passes for 60 yards on 8 targets. I realize the guy who caught the TD scored more fantasy points but opportunity is key.

I like this.Thanks for the tip!!!

 

[roadkill1292]

What curve?

 

[thehornet]

Read everything.

 

[War Eagle]

One of the things I watch very carefully once the season starts that many guys tend to nnot take very seriously is ""TARGETS" I play on a PPR league and last year I snagged BOTH Greg Camarillo and Lance Moore off waivers about a week before they started to really contibute. Why? Because they were getting lots of looks even without the final stats.This web site gives out great info. on targets and it's one of the most imporant sets of data for me.If a guy catches a a 50 yard TD pass but only had 2 targets the entire game I'm more interested in the guy who caught 4 passes for 60 yards on 8 targets. I realize the guy who caught the TD scored more fantasy points but opportunity is key.

Consistency is the key. I'd rather have a guy who is going to get those 6-10 looks a game versus the deep threat who may only get 2. Have to play the odds. Look for the guys that the play calling is trying to get the ball to. The first and second reads of the QB. If they look their way often, grab 'em.Just FYI...Mario Manningham got 12 looks from Eli this weekend.

 

[GregR_2]

Realize that serviceable RB2-3s and WR2-3s are all over the waiver wire

This depends entirely on your league. In some leagues you can barely find an NFL backup RB on waivers, let alone a player who is worth starting at a RB2 slot.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Study your league...know what the other owners tendencies are/what they're not.

 

[FF EGGHEAD]

One of the things I watch very carefully once the season starts that many guys tend to nnot take very seriously is ""TARGETS" I play on a PPR league and last year I snagged BOTH Greg Camarillo and Lance Moore off waivers about a week before they started to really contibute. Why? Because they were getting lots of looks even without the final stats.This web site gives out great info. on targets and it's one of the most imporant sets of data for me.If a guy catches a a 50 yard TD pass but only had 2 targets the entire game I'm more interested in the guy who caught 4 passes for 60 yards on 8 targets. I realize the guy who caught the TD scored more fantasy points but opportunity is key.

I think that is one of my key factors in PPR leagues!Very well put as you took the words right out of my head!

 

[dirty_martini]

Realize that serviceable RB2-3s and WR2-3s are all over the waiver wire

This depends entirely on your league. In some leagues you can barely find an NFL backup RB on waivers, let alone a player who is worth starting at a RB2 slot.

Good point - I painted with a broad brush. It gets a bit cumbersome to add in all the disclaimers. While we're adding disclaimers - it doesn't apply if your league doesn't have waivers either.

 

[Black]

I like alot of the info here...in PPR leagues, look at targets weekly and see which of those top guys are on the wire.

I am usually too hasty in cutting my draft picks...I hope to be more patient this year. In one league last year, I basically kept 2 roster spots of 16 open for covering bye weeks and grabbing the flavor of the week. Ended up with Thigpen, Orton, Hillis, MMoore, Dom Rhodes, Avery, L.Moore, Breaston during different parts of the season to get me thru.

 

[Balance]

simple, you just have to predict the future better than the next guy. not that complicated.

 

[rvmblack]

Watch as much football as you can. Too many people DONT watch football.

 

[Eminence]

Realize that serviceable RB2-3s and WR2-3s are all over the waiver wire - in the your last rounds draft potential home runs. If you hit one, you win. If you strike out, you can go get a serviceable guy on waivers and be no worse off. Drafting rookies like the OP falls into this category.

Great advice. I'd like to add to this that I think the best time to find waiver wire gems is weeks 1-3 so don't be afraid to cut the cord on your late round draft choices quickly.

Don't listen to this. This is exactly why I DROPPED DeAngelo Williams, and how an opponent rode him to the championship. Ending in a crushing loss for me.

 

[Franchise Playa]

Personally my rule of thumb goes like this.... (a basic overview)

- Know your scoring in each league you play in so you know not to waste your time with certain players and situations.

- Learn what to look for when scouting/watching games. Many people watch games or youtube videos and don't know what they should be looking at for each individual position. You should learn how the scouts look at the WR, RB and QB position.....Find out what they look for (there are tons of info out there to read up on this). Then you factor in level of competition, talent around them, scheme, targets/opportunity and offensive/defensive history. Its easy to oversimplify and to over analyze the answer is somewhere in the middle.

- When I draft players I am aware of not so much what round they are taken in but what is their salary. That will tell me how many chances they will get if they are slow to catch on or in case of major injury.

- Personally I only go after talent over situation 70% of the time....but of course that rule has to be ignored in certain instances especially in IDP leagues.

- If you have mastered your scouting for your particular scoring systems then get the future productive players EARLY. Buy low....Don't wait until you see a blurb on Rotoworld or someone mentions them on a fourm....get them off waivers or in a trade now and stash them away. If you know what your looking for and you know what works for your scoring system getting them early is should be easy.

- Be patient...just give it time if your sitting on someone with talent. You may end up dropping or trading someone and regret it

- Use forums only to reinforce your own thoughts and scouting. I never go by anything I read here or anywhere else....If I get a guy or trade for someone its due to my own research and them fitting my player criteria. I don't use site rankings or go by articles or forum posts I have read. I use them only to reinforce my opinion or to gather homer info I don't have access to.

That's basically what I do though with more detail in certain areas than I have listed. But I find I stay ahead of my league mates consistently in my dynasty leagues.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Pay attention to all the little blurbs coming out of training camp. If you can tolerate all the flulff and nonsense, you can pick up on breakout guys all the time. I don't mean you need to take notes, and remember everything, but when you keep hearing a no-name guy getting pub over and over, you can usually get him before the articles come out.

 

[lod01]

What curve?

The one in my rear view mirror.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

If your in a league with alot of experience sharks and the info.,stats, opinions, NFL network, redzone channel available at this day and age...I hate to say it but good/bad luck is a major and deciding factor.

 

[kaa]

As draft day nears, I just spam KFFL with a bunch of player names every day getting progress reports until I have pretty much committed the situations of most NFL players to short-term memory.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Great thread.

J

 

[Bojang0301]

Use common sense. When a player has a opportunity don't be afraid to take a risk. Matt Cassell's, Kurt Warner's and Patrick Jeffer's win titles.

 

[shredhead]

What curve?

The one in my rear view mirror.

I love that post.

 

[mlball77]

In keeper leagues, like the OP is in, I think it makes sense to put a premium on youth, at least to some extent. I would caution however, that using last year's rookie crop as the baseline on how to draft to stay ahead of the curve could be dangerous. Last year's rookies were/are special. I don't think most years are going to produce rookies quite like the class of 2008. So I would say be careful in taking H Nicks over J Cotchery just to "stay ahead of the curve."

 

[Mossome]

I am not even going to read this thread at all so I don't take anyone elses ideas intentionally. I think it's more important to know your league first and foremost. Know the scoring system, roster requirements (both starting and bench), just know the rules. I think people spend too much time analysing players at the expense of draft strategy etc. The best thing to keep in mind is to take the best player period within reason. For whatever reason Ronnie Brown and Braylon Edwards ended up dropping in all 3 of my money leagues and I ended up drafting him in each one. I am not saying go out and make sure you get Brown or Edwards just that you make good value picks. The teams that make the most good value picks are going to be the teams that end up winning.

In leagues that start mandatory tight ends I see way too many managers drafting tightends in a panic mode even if their are about 5 tightends that are all in the same tier. If you happen to miss out on a position look at what is left and if you see only 1 or 2 players that you like at a given position draft one before they are both gone. If you see 5 or more that you like wait to draft them until you see them going off the board. It's always good to tier players at their respective positions and try to get the last 1 or 2 left in a particular tier. I also see way too many owners that draft their kicker and defense right after all their starters are filled. I generally never draft kickers or defenses before the last few rounds. If a top 3 defense is sitting there with about 12 other defenses already gone, maybe it would be ok to grad the D but otherwise unless incredible value is up there skip those positions until later. Incredible value at some positions isn't really all that much value period.

I play in three 2 QB leagues. In those leagues I tend to have my best drafts because all players are generally valued about the same (as they should be). A top quarterback is just as valuable as a top runningback if not moreso, and that is the way it should be IMHO. Don't get suckered into taking runningbacks early regardless of what players are on the board. If it's the 4th round and you need a runningback and wideout about the same but the two best players on the board are Steve Smith and Cedric Benson, take Smith and worry about the runningback later even if the pool is getting a bit thin on runningbacks. When the bottom of the barrel runningbacks are the only thing left often times they aren't even starting by the end of the year. You know barring injury that Steve Smith is going to be there all year for you. I find way too many people making stupid picks just based upon need. Always draft at least 1 additional player at the big 3 positions of QB, RB and WR before considering your starters filled. How often does every starter at those positions remain healthy and productive. Not too often. Don't take Jeremy Shockey if you can back up your starting quarterback with someone like Trent Edwards. The difference between Shockey and the tight end you could draft 3 rounds later is probably not worth having a really good backup waiting in the wings. If nothing else use the BPA theory for trade bait later in the season.

Being successfull means thinking for yourself but also thinking logically. Take the opinions of the majority into serious consideration but the majority don't have to live with your team either. Make decisions for what gives your team the best chance to win your league. Don't forget that FFB is for enjoyment as well. I am not saying draft Eddie Royal over Calvin Johnson because you are a Broncos fan but if your choice is between Eddie Royal and Santana Moss and you consider them pretty much a dead heat take Royal, you will enjoy your season because of it. I always take the best player regardless of the team they play on but I will usually lean towards the player I like better if everything else is equal.

 

[Team Legacy]

I listen to the Audible!

 

[lod01]

What curve?

The one in my rear view mirror.

I love that post.

Thanks!

 

[Philo]

Start scouting high school players.