How Many people have done a completely..... (1 Viewer)

[aldelgreco]

My VBD Spreadsheet from FBG (the new premium one) and I am surprised by some of the projections.

LIKE A GATES @ #10 overall. Can that be right?

Can that possibly be right?

It's kind of a weird league.... every week you start

1QB

2WR

1RB

1TE

1FLEX

1DEF

6pt TDs for everyone. 1per10 Rush/RCV 1per25 Pass

Furtehrmore, if you abide strictly by this thing (for the first 50-60 picks as it recommends) are you really gonna be that well off? A gates before Edge or steve smith seems weird to me.

 

[oddball]

I tried this the other day in DD. It said to draft a kicker in the 8th or 9th round! I gave up after that.

 

[aldelgreco]

I tried this the other day in DD. It said to draft a kicker in the 8th or 9th round! I gave up after that.

Well, it says for the first 50-60 to draft completely according to what it says, and then by need. I think the DD does that automatically.. I've always encountered the DD "suggesting" I take a kicker early. I think that is because it does the "need based" stuff after the first 60 picks or so. I could be completely wrong about that. As you can tell by my current team...I'm no expert. But this league I draft in on Sunday is important. I need to make sure I utilize the VBD in the right way. Just wondering if that could even be right. HERE are the top 251 Larry Johnson2 LaDainian Tomlinson3 Shaun Alexander4 Tiki Barber5 Steven Jackson6 Rudi Johnson7 Peyton Manning8 Ronnie Brown9 Cadillac Williams10 Antonio Gates11 LaMont Jordan12 Steve Smith13 Edgerrin James14 Torry Holt15 Chad Johnson16 Willis McGahee17 Willie Parker18 Larry Fitzgerald19 Warrick Dunn20 Reggie Bush21 Randy Moss22 Clinton Portis23 Brian Westbrook24 Kevin Jones25 Terrell OwensDoes that look about right?

 

[-OZ-]

I could be mistaken, but isn't the VBD only as good as the projections?

 

[cws3030]

here is my top-30, looks normal to me:

1 Larry Johnson KC/3

2 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/3

3 Shaun Alexander Sea/5

4 Tiki Barber NYG/4

5 Steven Jackson StL/7

6 Rudi Johnson Cin/5

7 Ronnie Brown Mia/8

8 Steve Smith Car/9

9 Cadillac Williams TB/4

10 Torry Holt StL/7

11 Chad Johnson Cin/5

12 Edgerrin James Ari/9

13 LaMont Jordan Oak/3

14 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

15 Peyton Manning Ind/6

16 Randy Moss Oak/3

17 Willie Parker Pit/4

18 Willis McGahee Buf/8

19 Reggie Bush NO/7

20 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

21 Clinton Portis Was/8

22 Terrell Owens Dal/3

23 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

24 Brian Westbrook Phi/9

25 Warrick Dunn Atl/5

26 Antonio Gates SD/3

27 Chris Chambers Mia/8

28 Kevin Jones Det/8

29 Reuben Droughns Cle/6

30 DeShaun Foster Car/9

 

[aldelgreco]

I could be mistaken, but isn't the VBD only as good as the projections?

Are you saying I would be better off using the DD? I thought I could use the VBD so I didnt have to take my sick ### MacBook into the bar for 5 hours.

 

[aldelgreco]

here is my top-30, looks normal to me:1 Larry Johnson KC/32 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/33 Shaun Alexander Sea/54 Tiki Barber NYG/45 Steven Jackson StL/76 Rudi Johnson Cin/57 Ronnie Brown Mia/88 Steve Smith Car/99 Cadillac Williams TB/410 Torry Holt StL/711 Chad Johnson Cin/512 Edgerrin James Ari/913 LaMont Jordan Oak/314 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/915 Peyton Manning Ind/616 Randy Moss Oak/317 Willie Parker Pit/418 Willis McGahee Buf/819 Reggie Bush NO/720 Anquan Boldin Ari/921 Clinton Portis Was/822 Terrell Owens Dal/323 Marvin Harrison Ind/624 Brian Westbrook Phi/925 Warrick Dunn Atl/526 Antonio Gates SD/327 Chris Chambers Mia/828 Kevin Jones Det/829 Reuben Droughns Cle/630 DeShaun Foster Car/9

So, Gates could be that high?!?!#10??!?If I draft at the end of the first round and get the 10th pick I will get laughed at if I pick a TE.Is it only like that because the scoring is whack?

 

[-OZ-]

I could be mistaken, but isn't the VBD only as good as the projections?

Are you saying I would be better off using the DD? I thought I could use the VBD so I didnt have to take my sick ### MacBook into the bar for 5 hours.

Honestly, I don't use either. I know I'm missing out, but all I'm asking is, unless you're convinced that your projections are right (or close), how good can the list generated be?

 

[David Dodds]

People are missing the point. In your example the calculations show Gates is worth the tenth pick. But if you take him at 10, you earned no value. That's not a value-based draft.

The key is getting players that have high value NEAR their ADP (when the ADP number is higher than the value). His ADP is 26. If you draft him close to that then he represents GREAT value.

That is the point of VBD. Same with the defenses, etc. Some have value in the 8th and 9th rounds. The key then is how long can you wait after the ninth round and STILL get that player or team. That is how you maximize value every round. You let it slide to the point that it is unbelievable value. So even if the projections are off by 10-15%, the pick still represents value at the price paid.

 

[Bristol]

here is my top-30, looks normal to me:1 Larry Johnson KC/32 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/33 Shaun Alexander Sea/54 Tiki Barber NYG/45 Steven Jackson StL/76 Rudi Johnson Cin/57 Ronnie Brown Mia/88 Steve Smith Car/99 Cadillac Williams TB/410 Torry Holt StL/711 Chad Johnson Cin/512 Edgerrin James Ari/913 LaMont Jordan Oak/314 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/915 Peyton Manning Ind/616 Randy Moss Oak/317 Willie Parker Pit/418 Willis McGahee Buf/819 Reggie Bush NO/720 Anquan Boldin Ari/921 Clinton Portis Was/822 Terrell Owens Dal/323 Marvin Harrison Ind/624 Brian Westbrook Phi/925 Warrick Dunn Atl/526 Antonio Gates SD/327 Chris Chambers Mia/828 Kevin Jones Det/829 Reuben Droughns Cle/630 DeShaun Foster Car/9

So, Gates could be that high?!?!#10??!?If I draft at the end of the first round and get the 10th pick I will get laughed at if I pick a TE.Is it only like that because the scoring is whack?

Don't take Gates that early. Have you learned anything?Take 3 straight RB's and follow it up with the best WR in the 4th. There are plenty of value picks at TE and those can be grabbed late.I think you need to read David Dodd's Perfect Draft Article for 10 teams. If you follow the basic guidelines there, you should have no problems. You can find the article under "Articles" at the top of the screen.

 

[Bristol]

People are missing the point. In your example the calculations show Gates is worth the tenth pick. But if you take him at 10, you earned no value. That's not a value-based draft.The key is getting players that have high value NEAR their ADP (when the ADP number is higher than the value). His ADP is 26. If you draft him close to that then he represents GREAT value. That is the point of VBD. Same with the defenses, etc. Some have value in the 8th and 9th rounds. The key then is how long can you wait after the ninth round and STILL get that player or team. That is how you maximize value every round. You let it slide to the point that it is unbelievable value. So even if the projections are off by 10-15%, the pick still represents value at the price paid.

I agree 100% David! Gates is not a value pick at #10.

 

[Jmon]

IMHO the trick to doing a VBD with A Gates listed as the 10th pick is to adjust that by where you think he will actually be drafted in your league. Last night in a 10 team draft I passed on Gates at 3.05, with DD having him as the pick and the 19th rated player. He was there for me at 4.06, so in this case holding off worked. There is no point drafting a player a round or two before anyone else would.

 

[DropKick]

Al Delgreco complaining about someone taking a kicker early?

When you consider the math behind different VBD schemes, its no surprise that a kicker would represent value at around the 7th or 8th round (when all the "starters" are off the board). Using a worst starter approach, the 24th RB (start two; 12 teams) or the 36th WR (start 3) are the baseline or "0". A good kicker would likely represent some positive value. Its just the formula doing what you ask of it.

VBD does a good job of comparing relative worth and scarcity between positions and helps answer classic questions like how early is too early to take Sharpe|Gonzalez|Gates? Of course... it's just a tool and following it blindly doesn't make sense. Of course, a good tool in the wrong hands doesn't mean the tool is bad. When I failed art class it wasn't because the paint brush was flawed.

Part of the fun of playing this games is making decisions like when to take a quality backup like Larry Johnson (2005), or estimating how far someone may fall... and knowing league tendencies. No tool will do that for you.

 

[aldelgreco]

Al Delgreco complaining about someone taking a kicker early?When you consider the math behind different VBD schemes, its no surprise that a kicker would represent value at around the 7th or 8th round (when all the "starters" are off the board). Using a worst starter approach, the 24th RB (start two; 12 teams) or the 36th WR (start 3) are the baseline or "0". A good kicker would likely represent some positive value. Its just the formula doing what you ask of it.VBD does a good job of comparing relative worth and scarcity between positions and helps answer classic questions like how early is too early to take Sharpe|Gonzalez|Gates? Of course... it's just a tool and following it blindly doesn't make sense. Of course, a good tool in the wrong hands doesn't mean the tool is bad. When I failed art class it wasn't because the paint brush was flawed.Part of the fun of playing this games is making decisions like when to take a quality backup like Larry Johnson (2005), or estimating how far someone may fall... and knowing league tendencies. No tool will do that for you.

thanks

 

[KGB]

My VBD Spreadsheet from FBG (the new premium one) and I am surprised by some of the projections.

LIKE A GATES @ #10 overall. Can that be right?

Can that possibly be right?

It's kind of a weird league.... every week you start

1QB

2WR

1RB

1TE

1FLEX

1DEF

6pt TDs for everyone. 1per10 Rush/RCV 1per25 Pass

Furtehrmore, if you abide strictly by this thing (for the first 50-60 picks as it recommends) are you really gonna be that well off? A gates before Edge or steve smith seems weird to me.

wazzup wit dat?

 

[Leo2228]

People are missing the point. In your example the calculations show Gates is worth the tenth pick. But if you take him at 10, you earned no value. That's not a value-based draft.The key is getting players that have high value NEAR their ADP (when the ADP number is higher than the value). His ADP is 26. If you draft him close to that then he represents GREAT value. That is the point of VBD. Same with the defenses, etc. Some have value in the 8th and 9th rounds. The key then is how long can you wait after the ninth round and STILL get that player or team. That is how you maximize value every round. You let it slide to the point that it is unbelievable value. So even if the projections are off by 10-15%, the pick still represents value at the price paid.

'David Dodds’ let me get this right. His ADP is 26 if you drart him before 26 like 20 would that be a good value. Or after 26 like 30 is that a bad value too?? I draft tomorrow an I was just trying to figure out your Top 250 with ADP

 

[tangfoot]

'David Dodds’ let me get this right. His ADP is 26 if you drart him before 26 like 20 would that be a good value. Or after 26 like 30 is that a bad value too?? I draft tomorrow an I was just trying to figure out your Top 250 with ADP

If his VBD is 10 and his ADP is 26, then you can reasonably expect him to be there at 20. And get value.At 30, the value is even higher, but your chances of getting him at 4 slots lower than his ADP approaching zero.

 

[tangfoot]

1RB

wazzup wit dat?

Nothing surprising here. This gives you the option of starting 2 RBs or 3 WRs or 2 TEs. Pretty standard, really.

 

[David Dodds]

People are missing the point. In your example the calculations show Gates is worth the tenth pick. But if you take him at 10, you earned no value. That's not a value-based draft.The key is getting players that have high value NEAR their ADP (when the ADP number is higher than the value). His ADP is 26. If you draft him close to that then he represents GREAT value. That is the point of VBD. Same with the defenses, etc. Some have value in the 8th and 9th rounds. The key then is how long can you wait after the ninth round and STILL get that player or team. That is how you maximize value every round. You let it slide to the point that it is unbelievable value. So even if the projections are off by 10-15%, the pick still represents value at the price paid.

'David Dodds’ let me get this right. His ADP is 26 if you draft him before 26 like 20 would that be a good value. Or after 26 like 30 is that a bad value too?? I draft tomorrow an I was just trying to figure out your Top 250 with ADP

Yes if his value is 10, drafting him a tad before his ADP is very good. In fact you can even calculate how good by using the pick value calculator.Gates is a tough one as he always is undervalued. But most TEs are. So if you miss at getting Gates, you likely can get value with Shockey, Watson, Winslow, etc. Positions like this tend to get sluffed even more. Same is true with kickers and defense. If you miss on the top defense or kicker there is no sense of panic as a lot of the picks at those positions will be good to great value.My personal advice is someone like Gates you should try and get as close to ADP as possible. I likely would risk him not being there at 30 and attempt to hit a homerun getting him afew picks after ADP than to draft him early. Because the price of missing (spending picks on RBs/WRs early) is a sound winning game plan.

 

[lawrence phillips]

The VBD works great for me. The projections that the VBD is based on obviously play a big part. They use David's projections I believe which are pretty good, but you can easily adjust them if you are warmer or more sour on a certain player. Using the VBD with David's

"perfect draft" article definately will get you on the right track for your draft.

 

[cracKer]

The overall list also doesn't take into account the dynamic part of the Draft Dominator. It's just a static VBD ranking.