How often do the best teams win in FFL? (1 Viewer)

[CBower4545]

In the leagues I have been in this is how it turned out.

Redraft:

Year-------Most points scored------Best record

04--------------lost----------------------lost

05--------------lost-----------------------lost

06--------------Champion--------------Champion

07--------------Champion----------------lost

Dynasty

07---------------lost---------------------lost

Dynasty2

07---------------lost---------------------lost

So in the six leagues I have been apart of the team that has scored the most points has only won twice and the team with the best record has won only once. The breakdown seems a little odd to me, I was wondering what other peoples experience has been.

 

[comfortably numb]

I was in 2 16 team dynasty leagues last year

League 1

Best record lost

most points won

League 2

Most points/best record won

12 team league

most points won

3 way tie for best record, most points guy won it

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This won't be exactly right b/c the assumptions aren't exactly right, but...

If the four WC round teams are even, and

The two 1st round bye teams are even, and

The two playoff bye teams are 60/40 favorites over the WC round winners, the odds of each team winning the SB are:

Each of the four wild card round teams = 8.8% (35.2% total)

The two bye week teams = 32.4% (64.8%)

So one of the two best teams should be winning it about two in three years.

Of course the problem is that sometimes the best team won't finish 1st or 2nd and get a bye due to the crapshoot nature of H2H. Which blows this apart.

 

[Mohawk]

In the leagues I have been in this is how it turned out.Redraft:Year-------Most points scored------Best record04--------------lost----------------------lost05--------------lost-----------------------lost06--------------Champion--------------Champion 07--------------Champion----------------lostDynasty07---------------lost---------------------lostDynasty207---------------lost---------------------lostSo in the six leagues I have been apart of the team that has scored the most points has only won twice and the team with the best record has won only once. The breakdown seems a little odd to me, I was wondering what other peoples experience has been.

Related to this, if CB doesn't mind the addition to his post, how much does LUCK play in winning?Things like injuries to best players.Things like getting the second highest point total in a week only to be playing the team who scores MOST and you get a loss. Or the reverse where a team scores the second lowest point total a week but happens to be playing the lowest point total and gets a win.OR your best players sitting becasue their team clinched a playoff spot and have nothing else to win.Or your best players matching up agains stout defenses and you lose by a point or two. Some of those sorts of things are just plain blind luck.I find Luck plays at least a 50% role in who wins.

 

[comfortably numb]

I think lots of luck is needed to go all the way.

With that said, this year i went all the way and I did something a tad different.

I did not settle.

In the past when I have had good teams, I have not wanted to "tinker"

This last year, I made some early moves, and a several late moves to, and ALL the moves I made, where geared for weeks 14-16 in mind.

While I didn't sell of my future, I realized I was close and made moves to help me in 07, but yet would not kill me in 08-09 etc.

It worked out this time, but generally you need a good amount of luck to win it all IMO.

 

[Riffraff]

In one league I was in for 11 years, the #1 seed only won 1 championship.

 

[RoyDubb]

In one league I was in for 11 years, the #1 seed only won 1 championship.

exactly why i like total points from weeks 1 to 16. screw H2H. Best team dont always win in that format and that SUCKS !!! Been on the short end way too many times.

 

[Riffraff]

In one league I was in for 11 years, the #1 seed only won 1 championship.

exactly why i like total points from weeks 1 to 16. screw H2H. Best team dont always win in that format and that SUCKS !!! Been on the short end way too many times.

I can see total points for redrafts, but not really for dynasty. Redrafts = nearly even playing field. Dynasties not so much, especially if you take over a horrid squad.

 

[boubucarow]

While it is true that the "best" team often does not win in fantasy football, total points is not the sole indicator of the best team over the course of a season. A few huge weeks can mask the weaknesses of a fantasy team and give a false sense of overall strength.

 

[CBower4545]

While it is true that the "best" team often does not win in fantasy football, total points is not the sole indicator of the best team over the course of a season. A few huge weeks can mask the weaknesses of a fantasy team and give a false sense of overall strength.

I agree. I would rather use a team's all play record then total points to gauge strength, but I just don't have that data back four years. Last year in my three leagues the team with the best all play won one out of the three leagues.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

65%, when there is a no doubt "best team".

 

[Crippler]

My 2 dynasty leagues

League 1. 16 team going for 12 years

Scoring champ has won 5 championships, League Champ has won 5 championships. Same team for all 5. 4 of them did the trick in same year Oe losing team has won SB in 12 years as #8 seed. Other seed winners #7, #6, #5, #4 and #2 twice

League 2. 24 team going for 8 years

Scoring champ won twice and league champ won twice. One was team that did both in same year

One league I was in I won the league championship and scoring championship, 4 years in a row and was a 1st round victim 3 times and made the finals once.

 

[FUBAR]

In my 4 leagues last year:

A: The all play, record, and total points champ won it all

B: The top record (tied) and total points champ won it all

C: The all-play champ lost in the SB, the total points and record teams (3 different) lost in the playoffs

D: Total points league, so that's easy enough.

Pretty good overall.

 

[travdogg]

In my dynasty league, 1 team that is loaded(Brady, LT, S-Jax, AJ, Ocho and Gates was his starting lineup most of the last 3 years) has one the points title 3 straight years. He has not won a single title over that span.

The team that won this year finished 4th in points and made the playoffs on a tiebreaker and consisted of Peyton, Westy, LenDale, Steve Smith, Mason and Witten.

In 2006 the winning team finished 3rd in points with this roster: Grossman, LJ, McGahee, Harrison, Wayne and Desmond Clark.

In 2005: 3rd in points, Plummer, Tiki, Caddy, Roy, Galloway and Shockey.

Point is just because a team wins the points title doesn't mean they have really any better chance then any other team that made the playoffs.

 

[FantasyTrader]

In one league I was in for 11 years, the #1 seed only won 1 championship.

exactly why i like total points from weeks 1 to 16. screw H2H. Best team dont always win in that format and that SUCKS !!! Been on the short end way too many times.

I can see total points for redrafts, but not really for dynasty. Redrafts = nearly even playing field. Dynasties not so much, especially if you take over a horrid squad.

We play TP in dynasty and we love it. The nice thing about it is that we play weeks 1-21, including the Super Bowl. The playoffs can get pretty intense becuse if you can lose/make up a ton of ground in the playoffs. Many years we've had a first place team with very few players still in the playoffs - trying to survive right up to the end.