How to compete with the BIG 3? (1 Viewer)

[J-Rock]

I ended up with the 9th pick in a 12 team league. It tuens out I'm in the same division as the guys with pick 1, 2, 3. I've got to play LJ, LT2 & SA twice per year. I'm wondering if there is a strategy that will help guys in my stuation compete with the big 3 and win the division.

Details: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST.

Scoring: all TD's = 6pt, 1/20pa, 1/10 ru/re, no PPR.

 

[GregR_2]

I ended up with the 9th pick in a 12 team league. It tuens out I'm in the same division as the guys with pick 1, 2, 3. I've got to play LJ, LT2 & SA twice per year. I'm wondering if there is a strategy that will help guys in my stuation compete with the big 3 and win the division.

Details: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST.

Scoring: all TD's = 6pt, 1/20pa, 1/10 ru/re, no PPR.

Out draft them at their other picks.Not meaning to be flippant, but you have almost no impact on other teams without resorting to collusion. If you notice one of those teams is in a vulnerable spot, with a need and few players at that position left, you could try to deplete it (whether by yourself or with a well placed, "Man, sure am glad I got my QB already, very few left I'd be happy with.").

But other than that, about all you can do is put together a stronger overall team.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Pray

 

[LHUCKS]

Passing TDs = 6 Points

Make sure you land your top ranked QB...the scoring difference if you projected accurately should help. Bug GregR is right...outdrafting the rest of the draft is the way to go. A lot of owners who saw Tiki Barber as value last year were able to hang with the SA/LJ/LT owners in overall scoring so try to find value like that with the rest of your picks.

 

[J-Rock]

Passing TDs = 6 Points

Make sure you land your top ranked QB...the scoring difference if you projected accurately should help. Bug GregR is right...outdrafting the rest of the draft is the way to go. A lot of owners who saw Tiki Barber as value last year were able to hang with the SA/LJ/LT owners in overall scoring so try to find value like that with the rest of your picks.

Obviously Manning is my top renaked QB. I'd have to use my 1.09 to get him which goes against all of my principals. Is a viable draft strategy in this case QB/RB/WR or RB? Or possibly even QB/WR and go after Manning and Smith? hope to grab Dunn or Dayne at the 3.09 and another decent RB at 4.04?

 

[Football Menace]

Until this season, I never had a BIG 3 player. But I've been competitive every season (even winning 2 championships). You want to know my secret? well hear it is.

DRAFT A BETTER TEAM FROM TOP TO BOTTOM!

One player can't win it all by themself. The draft isn't the be all or end all either. You have to stay on top of free agency. My league doesn't reward the sad teams with a wavier system; So it maybe easier for me than you. Now I`will say this. You can't MISS on too many picks because if you do, with the potential of the 3 other teams, you're definately going to be out of the running.

 

[LHUCKS]

Passing TDs = 6 Points

Make sure you land your top ranked QB...the scoring difference if you projected accurately should help.  Bug GregR is right...outdrafting the rest of the draft is the way to go.  A lot of owners who saw Tiki Barber as value last year were able to hang with the SA/LJ/LT owners in overall scoring so try to find value like that with the rest of your picks.

Obviously Manning is my top renaked QB.

top ranked QB by how much?

 

[EBF]

One of the teams in my 12 team dynasty league will open the season with LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and LaMont Jordan as his RB1, RB2, and FLEX. Incredibly, he didn't win the title last season.

Anything can happen in the playoffs. All it takes is one fluke week to knock off a titan. And remember, a big advantage at one position can be offset by a disadvantage at another.

 

[J-Rock]

Passing TDs = 6 Points

Make sure you land your top ranked QB...the scoring difference if you projected accurately should help.  Bug GregR is right...outdrafting the rest of the draft is the way to go.  A lot of owners who saw Tiki Barber as value last year were able to hang with the SA/LJ/LT owners in overall scoring so try to find value like that with the rest of your picks.

Obviously Manning is my top renaked QB.

top ranked QB by how much?

By about 30FP. I'm not projecting a huge drop off between my next 4 QB's. Hasstlebeck

Manning

Bledsoe

Brady.

 

[joffer]

I ended up with the 9th pick in a 12 team league. It tuens out I'm in the same division as the guys with pick 1, 2, 3. I've got to play LJ, LT2 & SA twice per year. I'm wondering if there is a strategy that will help guys in my stuation compete with the big 3 and win the division.

Details: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST.

Scoring: all TD's = 6pt, 1/20pa, 1/10 ru/re, no PPR.

your only hope is DGP theory.

 

[LHUCKS]

Passing TDs = 6 Points

Make sure you land your top ranked QB...the scoring difference if you projected accurately should help.  Bug GregR is right...outdrafting the rest of the draft is the way to go.  A lot of owners who saw Tiki Barber as value last year were able to hang with the SA/LJ/LT owners in overall scoring so try to find value like that with the rest of your picks.

Obviously Manning is my top renaked QB.

top ranked QB by how much?

By about 30FP. I'm not projecting a huge drop off between my next 4 QB's. Hasstlebeck

Manning

Bledsoe

Brady.

Well, my reccomendation would be to grab one of these players with your 4th round pick...usually there aren't 4 QBs taken my 4.04. When did the 4th QB go last year?

 

[GregR_2]

Been giving this some more thought. Let me rephrase and pull in what some others have said.

You should probably aim at drafting a mixture of low-risk picks with your early picks combined with high upside picks in the middle and late draft. Not that what I'm saying isn't pretty much what everyone should do all the time, but you could consider erring in that direction.

If Manning is a touch less valuable than the RBs at your pick, but a LOT less risk, then yes I might consider taking him there. However, you need to compare your team of Manning, RB@2.3, RB@3.9, WR@4.3 vs RB@1.9, RB@2.3, QB/WR@3.9, WR@4.3.

If Manning is a safer pick but the drop from the RB at 1.9 to the one at 3.9 is a lot worse than the drop at QB, it probably still doesn't pay to make the pick there.

But you probably do want to target guys in the middle draft who have a better chance of vastly outperforming their position than others. RBs who may be in a RBBC but could emerge the clear starter. Guys in the Steve Smith mold who may be undervalued because of missing time last year... like DJax or (later) Burleson or (even later) Price. You need to make up points by finding starters deeper in the draft who perform equal to or better than guys your opponents fill their lineup with earlier in the draft.

Also, remember to keep in mind vulturing. It would probably be a mistake to go vulture all 3 team's backups, you need the picks to hit on sleepers. But if one of those teams is weak in RB depth and his backup is there when it's worth taking him, definitely vulture if you're in a position to do it.

 

[J-Rock]

One of the teams in my 12 team dynasty league will open the season with LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and LaMont Jordan as his RB1, RB2, and FLEX. Incredibly, he didn't win the title last season.

Anything can happen in the playoffs. All it takes is one fluke week to knock off a titan. And remember, a big advantage at one position can be offset by a disadvantage at another.

Here's my concern. 4 teams make the playoffs. Each div winner and the best record of a non div winner. I wil have 3 powerhouses in my div. My concern is that I won't make the playoffs where "anything can happen"

 

[nightshift]

LT2, LJ, or SA alone cannot win FF seasons. They still need a team. I have beaten teams that had them when I did not.

Draft smarter, take the best players available, and build the best team!

Probably you are faced with a RB draft frenzy, so look for top point scorers in your format, not just RBs.

Chances are good ones (WRs, QBs, TEs) will be overlooked.

Look for value RBs like Droughns, Taylor, etc. Put them with a killer WR corp like CJ and Chambers.

Make sure you take the stud RB backups like Turner. NFL players get hurt every game - how bad???

You win each game, one by one. It is amazing how many you can win with 2nd or 3rd tier players having great games.

Your goal: draft the best team, win whatever is needed to make the playoffs (don't worry about w/l records), win the title.

 

[J-Rock]

Well, my reccomendation would be to grab one of these players with your 4th round pick...usually there aren't 4 QBs taken my 4.04.

When did the 4th QB go last year?

Actually QB's tend to go pretty early in this league. 2 years ago 3 went in the first round!!!

I think I'll be able to get Eli or Bledsoe in the 4th. McNabb will probably be overvalued along with Brady which should allow Eli and Drew to be available in the 4th.

 

[Football Menace]

Passing TDs = 6 Points

Make sure you land your top ranked QB...the scoring difference if you projected accurately should help. Bug GregR is right...outdrafting the rest of the draft is the way to go. A lot of owners who saw Tiki Barber as value last year were able to hang with the SA/LJ/LT owners in overall scoring so try to find value like that with the rest of your picks.

I don't know if I agree LHUCKS. Everyone's #1 QB last season was P. Manning. And he scored only 37pts more than the guy who ended up 10th (Drew Brees). The difference in draft position was 7 rounds. IMO, he should go in the opposite direction and draft the bargain QBs that will out perform their ADP and pick a very solid starter where Manning is being drafted.

 

[gebz306]

Pray

LOL, get as much $ as u can and get out now

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't know if I agree LHUCKS.  Everyone's #1 QB last season was P. Manning.  And he scored only 37pts more than the guy who ended up 10th (Drew Brees).  The difference in draft position was 7 rounds.  IMO,  he should go in the opposite direction and draft the bargain QBs that will out perform their ADP and pick a very solid starter where Manning is being drafted.

Like I said, it comes down to your projections...using last year's dataset as the only dataset is not the way I would go about projecting the value of this year's QB crop.Further, I said I would draft a top tier QB in the 4th round...I'm not necessarily advocating taking Manning in the first.

 

[J-Rock]

This is great stuff.

I will look at vulturing in the later rounds for sure.

Chances are, I'm not going to be able to compete on an even playing field at RB (not impossible but tough for sure). Doy you guys feel I'll be able to make up ground most at the QB position or the WR position?

 

[LHUCKS]

This is great stuff.

I will look at vulturing in the later rounds for sure.

Chances are, I'm not going to be able to compete on an even playing field at RB (not impossible but tough for sure). Doy you guys feel I'll be able to make up ground most at the QB position or the WR position?

WR obviously since you start 3 and only start 1 QB...or am I misunderstanding the question?

 

[Kleck.]

I was in a somewhat similar situation drafting in No Mercy Hammerhead. Two of the guys in my division had the #1 and #3 spot, while I was drafting out of the #5 spot. Not quite as bad as if I had the #9 like you, and the 4th guy in the division was drafting from the #7 I believe. Either way, they would start the draft alot stronger at RB, and were also in good position to grab a pair of stud WRs, or a WR and Gates, which both happened.

It did worry me some, but mid way threw the draft I did feel I caught up with them through making some good value picks at WR, getting some decent upside value with RBs, and also making a couple of trades to acquire Peyton (6pt TD) and Shockey.

I believe it's the mid rounds that will really make your season. Draft well there and you can overcome a division of with the top 3 rated RBs.

 

[chocolate bomber]

Pray

Exactly. Grab your ankles and pray for an injury to one of them.

 

[Football Menace]

I don't know if I agree LHUCKS.  Everyone's #1 QB last season was P. Manning.  And he scored only 37pts more than the guy who ended up 10th (Drew Brees).  The difference in draft position was 7 rounds.  IMO,  he should go in the opposite direction and draft the bargain QBs that will out perform their ADP and pick a very solid starter where Manning is being drafted.

Like I said, it comes down to your projections...using last year's dataset as the only dataset is not the way I would go about projecting the value of this year's QB crop.

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs. The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004). I've never had a top QB in all my years of FF, and I've done pretty well. I tend to think of QBs in the mold of kickers and defenses. As long as I have a few decent guys with a good mesh of matchups, then I'm ok. IMO, the only way a QB makes a huge difference is if you get one of those guys that has a special season.

 

[LHUCKS]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004). 

Look at three years of QB scoring for me: 1984, 1999, 2004. Now tell me if you think the above statement is true.

 

[code]

LT2, LJ, or SA alone cannot win FF seasons. They still need a team. I have beaten teams that had them when I did not.

Our champion last season drew Rudi Johnson in the 1st...the runner up had Tiki Barber...the team with Tomlinson barely broke .500...

 

[joffer]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004).

this is using 6 pts for all TDs, -2 for INTs, and point for 25 yards passing1996 : QB1 - 387, QB10 - 1961997 : QB1 - 357, QB10 - 2401998 : QB1 - 440, QB10 - 2541999 : QB1 - 409, QB10 - 239 2000 : QB1 - 412, QB10 - 2522001 : QB1 - 371, QB10 - 2702002 : QB1 - 357, QB10 - 2942003 : QB1 - 333, QB10 - 2722004 : QB1 - 516, QB10 - 3372005 : QB1 - 332, QB10 - 256

 

[J-Rock]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004). 

Look at three years of QB scoring for me: 1984, 1999, 2004. Now tell me if you think the above statement is true.

So every 5 years a QB will domiante?I'll remember that in 2009.

 

[LHUCKS]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004). 

Look at three years of QB scoring for me: 1984, 1999, 2004. Now tell me if you think the above statement is true.

So every 5 years a QB will domiante?I'll remember that in 2009.

Did I list all of them?? And the above statement said "every year."

 

[LHUCKS]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004).

this is using 6 pts for all TDs, -2 for INTs, and point for 25 yards passing1996 : QB1 - 387, QB10 - 196

1997 : QB1 - 357, QB10 - 240

1998 : QB1 - 440, QB10 - 254

1999 : QB1 - 384, QB10 - 225 - hang on, that doesn't look right

2000 : QB1 - 412, QB10 - 252

2001 : QB1 - 371, QB10 - 270

2002 : QB1 - 357, QB10 - 294

2003 : QB1 - 333, QB10 - 272

2004 : QB1 - 516, QB10 - 337

2005 : QB1 - 332, QB10 - 256

Exactly...thanks for doing the leg work for me Joffer. You can lead a horse to water...

I love it when somebody comes back at me with a condescending post and has no idea as to wtf they are talking about.

 

[J-Rock]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004).

this is using 6 pts for all TDs, -2 for INTs, and point for 25 yards passing1996 : QB1 - 387, QB10 - 196

1997 : QB1 - 357, QB10 - 240

1998 : QB1 - 440, QB10 - 254

1999 : QB1 - 384, QB10 - 225 - hang on, that doesn't look right

2000 : QB1 - 412, QB10 - 252

2001 : QB1 - 371, QB10 - 270

2002 : QB1 - 357, QB10 - 294

2003 : QB1 - 333, QB10 - 272

2004 : QB1 - 516, QB10 - 337

2005 : QB1 - 332, QB10 - 256

Exactly...thanks for doing the leg work for me Joffer. You can lead a horse to water...

I love it when somebody comes back at me with a condescending post and has no idea as to wtf they are talking about.

Easy, dude. Wasn't trying to be condescending. They way you presented your info made it look like maybe those 3 years were anomalies. Thanks for the info Joffer.

Do you think a solid strategy would be to look at SOS for the weeks I play division games (1,2,3 & 11,12,13) and look for players to have big games in those weeks?

 

[LHUCKS]

They way you presented your info made it look like maybe those 3 years were anomalies.

I presented those three years because you could have started Chase Stuart at your RB1 and still have had a shot at the scoring title.QB scoring can get ridiculous with 6 point passing TDs...it's one of the first places I look to make up points against the top RBs.

 

[GregR_2]

They way you presented your info made it look like maybe those 3 years were anomalies.

I presented those three years because you could have started Chase Stuart at your RB1 and still have had a shot at the scoring title.QB scoring can get ridiculous with 6 point passing TDs...it's one of the first places I look to make up points against the top RBs.

I think "ridiculous" is overly strong wording. Sometimes you get a 40 TD performance that might be 20 TDs ahead of the other guys, but that is still only 40 points which often pales in comparison to the top RBs. And I imagine it is more likely the top QB in a given year is in the 30 TD range than in the 40 range. That's what made guys like Warner, and Peyton during his big season, so valuable.But as you say, it can be an aid in making up ground.

 

[LHUCKS]

They way you presented your info made it look like maybe those 3 years were anomalies.

I presented those three years because you could have started Chase Stuart at your RB1 and still have had a shot at the scoring title.QB scoring can get ridiculous with 6 point passing TDs...it's one of the first places I look to make up points against the top RBs.

I think "ridiculous" is overly strong wording. Sometimes you get a 40 TD performance that might be 20 TDs ahead of the other guys, but that is still only 40 points which often pales in comparison to the top RBs. But as you say, it can be an aid in making up ground.

Ah...but you're not including the 1/20 yards passing or the 1/10 rushing(Culpepper) either.Warner/Marino/Manning/Culpepper almost single handedly won teams their scoring titles because they outscored the competition by triple digits...not 40 points.

Marino passed for 5000 yards the year he passed for 48 TDs.

Manning passed for 4500 yards the year he passed for 49 TDs.

Culpepper passed for 4700 yards and rushed for 400 the year he had 41 TDs.

Warner passed for 4300 yards the year he had 42 TDs

QB scoring comes in bunches. We're not talking about a 40 point difference here.

But go ahead and draft Hines Ward in the fourth round instead of one of your top tier QBs.

Edited to Add: It should be noted that you should draft the top tier QB as late as possible, not necessarily in the 4th round.

 

[EBF]

One of the teams in my 12 team dynasty league will open the season with LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and LaMont Jordan as his RB1, RB2, and FLEX. Incredibly, he didn't win the title last season.

Anything can happen in the playoffs. All it takes is one fluke week to knock off a titan. And remember, a big advantage at one position can be offset by a disadvantage at another.

Here's my concern. 4 teams make the playoffs. Each div winner and the best record of a non div winner. I wil have 3 powerhouses in my div. My concern is that I won't make the playoffs where "anything can happen"

This is where luck comes in. I'm in a league with a nearly identical setup. I was third in scoring, but I didn't make the playoffs because the top two teams in my division also happened to be the top two scoring teams in the league. All you can do is build the best team possible and hope the schedule breaks in your favor.

On a side note, this is why my league values total points over record. Less luck.

 

[GregR_2]

They way you presented your info made it look like maybe those 3 years were anomalies.

I presented those three years because you could have started Chase Stuart at your RB1 and still have had a shot at the scoring title.QB scoring can get ridiculous with 6 point passing TDs...it's one of the first places I look to make up points against the top RBs.

I think "ridiculous" is overly strong wording. Sometimes you get a 40 TD performance that might be 20 TDs ahead of the other guys, but that is still only 40 points which often pales in comparison to the top RBs. But as you say, it can be an aid in making up ground.

Ah...but you're not including the 1/20 yards passing or the 1/10 rushing(Culpepper) either.Warner/Marino/Manning/Culpepper almost single handedly won teams their scoring titles because they outscored the competition by triple digits...not 40 points.

FMarino passed for 5000 yards the year he passed for 48 TDs.

Manning passed for 4500 yards the year he passed for 49 TDs.

Culpepper passed for 4700 yards and rushed for 400 the year he had 41 TDs.

Warner passed for 4300 yards the year he had 42 TDs

QB scoring comes in bunches. We're not talking about a 40 point difference here.

Wouldn't you consider those exceptions though rather than the rule? There are only 4 QB seasons with over 40 passing TDs in history (Marino has 2, Warner and Manning have 1, Culpepper never had 41 TDs). There are only 7 QB seasons of over 38 passing TDs.On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by? It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20. That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

 

[Musesboy]

I know almost everyone has LJ, LT and SA as their top three right now, but the chances of things ending up like that are very small.

Looking at last season, Barber fell to the second round in some leagues, Portis was a late first round pick, and Larry Johnson was available in the fifth round in most drafts. Don't take the current projections as something that absolutely will happen.

You have the ninth pick. The ninth RB in scoring last year was Thomas Jones with 202 points by FBGs scoring. That was 162 behind Alexander who set the TD record. Even if he repeats that performance, you still only have to make up a difference of 10 points per game. That is obviously possible as you will have the 16th pick and seven or eight other players to start every week. One big play can overcome a 10 point difference.

Don't act like golfers when they play Tiger Woods, and generally self-destruct trying for the impossible or highly unlikely strategy.

It's always important to look for value in any draft, and risk assessment is important. I would try to build a solid base of established starters before looking for high risk/high reward types.

After you have that core group, look for players with high upside. Rudi Johnson outscored Portis and LT over the last eight games and he may be there at nine. Think about guys like Ron Dayne. Anderson was 10th in RB scoring last year and Dayne is said to be taking over that role this year. If he were to finish 10th, that would be a great return, but imagine his value if Bell were to go down. That is essentially how LJ became a dominant force last year. Denver runs the ball extremely well and a single back in that system could finish top five in theory.

Dillon/Maroney might give an excellent return if there is no RBBC. How about T Jones/Benson if one were to get hurt? The Bears want to run the ball all day.

The key is to keep taking value. If that value can give you a reasonable return with high upside, even better.

 

[LHUCKS]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?   It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.   That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Look at Joffer's numbers above. They are very telling IMHO and much more than the 20 points you are insinuating. I used those three years as extrem examples to illustrate the upside of having a top QB. Those players outscored their position by 200+ points.

 

[Musesboy]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by? It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20. That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Isn't a difference of 10 TDs 40 points at 4 per TD and 60 at 6 per TD?

 

[LHUCKS]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?  It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.  That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Isn't a difference of 10 TDs 40 points at 4 per TD and 60 at 6 per TD?

Yes, and that's not including the yardage differences.

 

[joffer]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?   It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.   That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Look at Joffer's numbers above. They are very telling IMHO and much more than the 20 points you are insinuating. I used those three years as extrem examples to illustrate the upside of having a top QB.

however, over that same 10 year period, the average difference between QB1 and QB10 isA - 25yd/pt, 6pts/TD, -2 per INT: 391 - 261 = 130 points

B - 20yd/pt, 4pts/TD, -1 per INT: 373 - 263 = 110 points

unfortunately those are the only two scoring systems for QBs that i have data for

 

[Hawkeyeskin]

LT2, LJ, or SA alone cannot win FF seasons. They still need a team. I have beaten teams that had them when I did not.

Draft smarter, take the best players available, and build the best team!

Probably you are faced with a RB draft frenzy, so look for top point scorers in your format, not just RBs.

Chances are good ones (WRs, QBs, TEs) will be overlooked.

Look for value RBs like Droughns, Taylor, etc. Put them with a killer WR corp like CJ and Chambers.

Make sure you take the stud RB backups like Turner. NFL players get hurt every game - how bad???

You win each game, one by one. It is amazing how many you can win with 2nd or 3rd tier players having great games.

Your goal: draft the best team, win whatever is needed to make the playoffs (don't worry about w/l records), win the title.

 

[Football Menace]

I haven't done any research, but I would tend to think that it's the same situation every year with QBs.  The #1 guy doesn't blow away the #10 guy (with the exceptions of special years such as 2004). 

Look at three years of QB scoring for me: 1984, 1999, 2004. Now tell me if you think the above statement is true.

My point is why should I spend a 4th on players like Manning, Hasstlebeck, Manning, Bledsoe, or Brady. When I could get at least 2 of Plummer, Bulger, Green, Warner, Farve, or Brooks (and others) rounds later. I don't think the production will be that much different. And remember the projected #1 scorer rarely ends up #1. I would say I'd have a very good shot at a top 5 QB with the later mentioned.

 

[LHUCKS]

My point is why should I spend a 4th on players like Manning, Hasstlebeck, Manning, Bledsoe, or Brady. When I could get at least 2 of Plummer, Bulger, Green, Warner, Farve, or Brooks (and others) rounds later. I don't think the production will be that much different.

You shouldn't spend a 4th if you have faith in your statement that I bolded above.

 

[GregR_2]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by? It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20. That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Isn't a difference of 10 TDs 40 points at 4 per TD and 60 at 6 per TD?

In League A, QB1 is worth 40 points more than the QBX who scored 10 TDs less.In League B, same QB1 is worth 60 points more than the QBX who scored 10 TDs less.

We're talking about how did the scoring change affect QB1's value? It went from 40 to 60 points, which means he improve 20 points as I said.

 

[GregR_2]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by? It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20. That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Isn't a difference of 10 TDs 40 points at 4 per TD and 60 at 6 per TD?

Yes, and that's not including the yardage differences.

How does having 6 vs 4 pt TDs have anything to do with yardage?

 

[LHUCKS]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?  It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.  That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Isn't a difference of 10 TDs 40 points at 4 per TD and 60 at 6 per TD?

In League A, QB1 is worth 40 points more than the QBX who scored 10 TDs less.In League B, same QB1 is worth 60 points more than the QBX who scored 10 TDs less.

We're talking about how did the scoring change affect QB1's value? It went from 40 to 60 points, which means he improve 20 points as I said.

You're talking about 4 pt leagues vs. 6 pt leagues...now I see where you're coming from. Yes, the difference is obviously 2 Pts per TD.

 

[Musesboy]

We're talking about how did the scoring change affect QB1's value? It went from 40 to 60 points, which means he improve 20 points as I said.

sorry

 

[LHUCKS]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?   It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.   That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Isn't a difference of 10 TDs 40 points at 4 per TD and 60 at 6 per TD?

Yes, and that's not including the yardage differences.

How does having 6 vs 4 pt TDs have anything to do with yardage?

I didn't realize you were only speaking to 4 pt vs. 6 pt.

 

[GregR_2]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by? It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20. That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Look at Joffer's numbers above. They are very telling IMHO and much more than the 20 points you are insinuating. I used those three years as extrem examples to illustrate the upside of having a top QB.

however, over that same 10 year period, the average difference between QB1 and QB10 isA - 25yd/pt, 6pts/TD, -2 per INT: 391 - 261 = 130 points

B - 20yd/pt, 4pts/TD, -1 per INT: 373 - 263 = 110 points

unfortunately those are the only two scoring systems for QBs that i have data for

Thank you, beat me to it while I replied to the other posts.So the 6 pt TD vs the 4 pt only resulted in what we expected, about 20 points more value for the QB1. I don't see how that increase makes QB scoring ridiculous, when elite RBs are normally well above that range.

 

[LHUCKS]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?   It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.   That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Look at Joffer's numbers above. They are very telling IMHO and much more than the 20 points you are insinuating. I used those three years as extrem examples to illustrate the upside of having a top QB.

however, over that same 10 year period, the average difference between QB1 and QB10 isA - 25yd/pt, 6pts/TD, -2 per INT: 391 - 261 = 130 points

B - 20yd/pt, 4pts/TD, -1 per INT: 373 - 263 = 110 points

unfortunately those are the only two scoring systems for QBs that i have data for

Thank you, beat me to it while I replied to the other posts.So the 6 pt TD vs the 4 pt only resulted in what we expected, about 20 points more value for the QB1. I don't see how that increase makes QB scoring ridiculous, when elite RBs are normally well above that range.

The ridiculousness coms from the cumulative totals, not just from the 2 point difference in TDs.Wow, took 10 posts to clarify that one sentence.