How to compete with the BIG 3? (1 Viewer)

[GregR_2]

I didn't realize you were only speaking to 4 pt vs. 6 pt.

Just to clear up what I thought we were discussing, I thought you said that QB scoring can get ridiculous with 6 pt passing TDs. Assuming everything else is relatively standard, I don't think it gets ridiculous with either. But you mentioned 6 pt in particular and so I read that to mean you indicating it was a significant difference over 4 pt.But I don't think it's ridiculous. Joffer's numbers showed QB valuations that are less than elite RBs in most any year. In the best QB years in NFL history, they might equal the top RBs in value, but not even then is it a given.

 

[GregR_2]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by? It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20. That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Look at Joffer's numbers above. They are very telling IMHO and much more than the 20 points you are insinuating. I used those three years as extrem examples to illustrate the upside of having a top QB.

however, over that same 10 year period, the average difference between QB1 and QB10 isA - 25yd/pt, 6pts/TD, -2 per INT: 391 - 261 = 130 points

B - 20yd/pt, 4pts/TD, -1 per INT: 373 - 263 = 110 points

unfortunately those are the only two scoring systems for QBs that i have data for

Thank you, beat me to it while I replied to the other posts.So the 6 pt TD vs the 4 pt only resulted in what we expected, about 20 points more value for the QB1. I don't see how that increase makes QB scoring ridiculous, when elite RBs are normally well above that range.

The ridiculousness coms from the cumulative totals, not just from the 2 point difference in TDs.Wow, took 10 posts to clarify that one sentence.

What is ridiculous about the cumulative totals? In my leagues with standard RB scoring, the top RBs have values from 150 to 275 points in a given season.

 

[LHUCKS]

But I don't think it's ridiculous.  Joffer's numbers showed QB valuations that are less than elite RBs in most any year.  In the best QB years in NFL history, they might equal the top RBs in value, but not even then is it a given.

But we're starting with the premise that you don't get one of the big 3 RBs....thus you can negate your statement regarding RB scoring variance. Actually we're starting with the premise that you only have the 1.09 pick.The first strategy I have is to grab a top tier QB with the highest upside as late as possible.

 

[LHUCKS]

On average, how many passing TDs do you expect the top QB to exceed the 10th or 12th QB by?  It's a lot more likely to be 10 than it is 20.  That's a 20 point swing for QB, or a point per game.

Look at Joffer's numbers above. They are very telling IMHO and much more than the 20 points you are insinuating. I used those three years as extrem examples to illustrate the upside of having a top QB.

however, over that same 10 year period, the average difference between QB1 and QB10 isA - 25yd/pt, 6pts/TD, -2 per INT: 391 - 261 = 130 points

B - 20yd/pt, 4pts/TD, -1 per INT: 373 - 263 = 110 points

unfortunately those are the only two scoring systems for QBs that i have data for

Thank you, beat me to it while I replied to the other posts.So the 6 pt TD vs the 4 pt only resulted in what we expected, about 20 points more value for the QB1. I don't see how that increase makes QB scoring ridiculous, when elite RBs are normally well above that range.

The ridiculousness coms from the cumulative totals, not just from the 2 point difference in TDs.Wow, took 10 posts to clarify that one sentence.

What is ridiculous about the cumulative totals? In my leagues with standard RB scoring, the top RBs have values from 150 to 275 points in a given season.

Like I said in the previous post, we're starting with the assumption in this thread that you're missing out on the big 3 RBs and have the 1.09 pick.

 

[Gravity]

I won my league last year without any of the big 6.

I did not lose a single game to the LT, LJ or SA owner.

Here's what I recommend. You need to go after the BOOM players at OTHER positions. You need to take a risk strategy rather than a risk-averse strategy. The advantage of having the big 3 is that you can make more conservative picks along the way.

Think Gates (if TE required) - he is a MUST to compete against the big 3.

Think Randy Moss - yes he's risky but he'll be the cheapest he's ever been and you need his Boom potential.

Make sure you grab a top 5 QB.

Other BOOM players (risky of course) available after the first 3 rounds:

Roy Williams

Chester Taylor

Aaron Brooks

Etc...

Something Like Lamont Jordan, Gates, RMoss will make you very competitive against them and is very possible to get those 3 in the first 3 rounds of the draft.

Then Grab CTaylor, or the like (D Foster, Fred Taylor, JLewis, WDunn, etc...) in round 4 and best available QB in round 5.

 

[J-Rock]

I've been working on this over the past few hours and I've got a pretty good idea of what I'll do. Thanks for all of the input, I think this made for some really good strategy talk.

I've decided to focus on the following:

1) Grab a top QB with high upside as late as possible . (thanks LHUCKS)

2) Focus on guys in from round 3ish onwards with huge upside but with a moderate amount of risk (thanks Gravity)

3) I've looked at the SOS for QB, RB, WR in weeks 1-3 and 12-16 (weeks I play div opponents + playoffs) and will use this info to help make close decesions between players.

4) I'll hit a drive thru confessional and pray with a minister on my way to the draft (thanks ScottNorwood)

My draft for this league is in 2 hours. I'll post a "rate my team"/ draft commentary in the AC form and place a link in this topic. I'd love to get some post draft feedback and hear comments on things you might have done differently.

 

[J-Rock]

Just completed this draft.

Posted in AC fourm. Looking forward to feedback and discussion.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=254124

 

[rascal]

Well I'm in a serious mock draft right now and drafted 10th of 12 teams. All Td's are 6 points and rushing/receiving is 1 pt per 20 yards and 1pt per 25 passing.

My first two picks were Rudi Johnson and Peyton Manning. The guy who drafted LJ also took Harrison, while the guy with LT took Westbrook. We'll see how the QB early strategy matches up against those with the first three.