Anonymous Internet User
Footballguy
Disclaimer: I do not claim that this method is original. It is, in fact, used daily in a large number of industries and markets.
I'm writing this in hopes that this will answer many of the threads that often come up in the Shark Pool asking who you'd draft given a certain situation. This method should answer these questions for anyone willing to do a couple things:
1) Create player projections for stats and, therefore, total season production
2) Create estimates of how many players at each position will be drafted before your next pick, on a round-by-round basis
I'll go over each of these briefly, noting things that should be considered:
1) Player Projections
Surprisingly enough, many people don't take the time to actually sit down and create their own player projections. They choose to use their "gut" in deciding where player value lies. If you're one of those people, this method is not for you. If you're willing to lay aside your "gut" feelings and commit to creating a projection sheet (which will undoubtedly include some of your gut feelings anyway!), then read on.
Coming up with player projections is a tricky business. You need to account for things such as the player's previous production and changes in that players offensive scheme. Some people like to include injury histories in their stat projections. On this point I'll be frank: if you have a good track record of predicting injuries, you can become very rich. People would kill for your uncanny ability. If you're like most of us, it's probably best not to take into account potential for injury; however, if a player has missed games in any of his previous seasons, this will likely play a role in your evaluation of their previous production - thus, their injury history might creep into your projections despite your honest efforts to not account for it. It's not my intent to lecture on how to make projections, merely to demonstrate how they can be used in a definite method to improve your fantasy team.
2) Who's Gonna Be Drafted Before My Next Pick
This is where mock drafts and knowledge of the people in your league come in handy. For each and every one of your picks, try to estimate how many players at each position will be taken before your next pick. Example: I'm picking at 2.04 and next at 3.09 in a 12-team league. In the 11 picks between my picks, I'm going to guess (based upon mock drafts) that 5 WRs, 1 TE, 2 QBs, and 3 RBs will be taken. Do something like this for ALL of your picks (or, at the least, the first 6-7 rounds of the draft where the bulk of your starting lineup is taken).
How the method works:
The previous example states that you pick at 2.04. You believe that 5 WRs, 1 TE, 2 QBs, and 3 RBs will be taken before you pick again. Who should you take?
The method states that you should maximize the marginal point difference between who you have available now, and who will be available to you when you pick next. The point difference is estimated based upon your projections for your leagues scoring system. So, let's say that there are the following point differences:
@ WR: WR #3 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 5 have been taken) is #9. Projected point difference: 35.
@ TE: TE #1 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 1 has been taken) is #2. Projected point difference: 20.
@ QB: QB #2 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 2 have been taken) is #4. Projected point difference: 15.
@ RB: RB #13 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 3 have been taken) is #16. Projected point difference: 25.
note: since you don't think any K or DEF will be taken, it makes no sense to take one here. They will be available at your next pick anyway.
If this were the results of your analysis to this point, the method would say that you're best served taking a WR at this pick. It has the largest projected point difference between who you can take now, and who will be available for you later. This will vary depending on a number of things: where you are on your list (ie - WHO has already been taken), how many will be taken before my next pick, and the actual values of your projections.
This is very important: there are exceptions which must necessarily be made to the method based upon your leagues lineup requirements and the differences between your projections and the projections of others.
Exception #1) Lineup Requirements
If your league requires 2 RB and 3 WR, and you have already drafted 2 RB, your weekly starting lineup is not improved if you take another RB. Under no conditions, based upon the criteria above, would it state that you should start drafting bench players before starters. In practice, this may not always prudent. Perhaps you have drafted, based upon the method, a player whose projections are high but whom you nonetheless perceive ("gut" feeling we're trying to avoid) to be an injury risk. When should you draft a back-up? There are two answers to this question. The first answer is that you can cave in to your "gut" feeling, and in the process completely negate the purpose of using the method. The second answer is to develop a criteria using the method. The question then becomes: what is a suitable criteria for drafting depth?
This is something I've yet to find a good answer to without resorting to the "gut" feeling involving player injuries. Not only injuries, but the possibility that your projections are terribly off-base. Here's the best idea I have to solve this, but it's not yet developed to a point I'm comfortable using it in practice:
Estimate, based upon your past fantasy performance as an owner, how far off your projections tend to be. IE - you are estimating the risk associated with your projections. Then, based upon this estimate, add uncertainties to all of your player projections (+/- how many points) AND number of players leaving the board between your picks (+/- how many players). Using the most conservative of these uncertainties, or, in other words, the worst case scenario, reconsider your marginal point differences and draft accordingly.
Exception #2) Value
If you project that the number 1 overall WR this year is going to be Eric Moulds, it might not be a good idea to take him with your first WR pick. The reason for this is that there is a large difference between your projections and the projections of others. Everyone else thinks Moulds will at best be the number 60 overall! Therefore, it's prudent to wait on picking Moulds until the number 60 overall WR would be taken before your next pick. There is always uncertainty in guessing the projections of your competitors, so I find it prudent to be sure to grab someone you have projected significantly higher than their perceived value at least one round before their ADP. (Note: this is only for the exceptional case that you feel the player will significantly outperform his ADP - giving you reason to pay a *little* bit more than his perceived value.)
Now, some of you may vehemently disagree on this point - saying that you should "let the draft come to you" and not to be hung up on specific targetted players. On this aspect I will respectfully disagree. If you feel that the player would significantly improve your fantasy roster, then you SHOULD be willing to pay more for that player than average perceived value in order to assure that player is contributing to your and not your competitors roster. However, there is no criteria for how "significant" the difference in perceived value should be before you decide to draft a player ahead of his value. This is something I hope to develop a criteria for (likely based upon CHANGES in perceived value, or, in other words, CHANGES in ADP of that player).
Thanks for reading, I hope this has been informative, and I hope that this can put to rest some of the "Don't Take Manning In Round 1" debates that always seem to pop up from year to year.
I'm writing this in hopes that this will answer many of the threads that often come up in the Shark Pool asking who you'd draft given a certain situation. This method should answer these questions for anyone willing to do a couple things:
1) Create player projections for stats and, therefore, total season production
2) Create estimates of how many players at each position will be drafted before your next pick, on a round-by-round basis
I'll go over each of these briefly, noting things that should be considered:
1) Player Projections
Surprisingly enough, many people don't take the time to actually sit down and create their own player projections. They choose to use their "gut" in deciding where player value lies. If you're one of those people, this method is not for you. If you're willing to lay aside your "gut" feelings and commit to creating a projection sheet (which will undoubtedly include some of your gut feelings anyway!), then read on.
Coming up with player projections is a tricky business. You need to account for things such as the player's previous production and changes in that players offensive scheme. Some people like to include injury histories in their stat projections. On this point I'll be frank: if you have a good track record of predicting injuries, you can become very rich. People would kill for your uncanny ability. If you're like most of us, it's probably best not to take into account potential for injury; however, if a player has missed games in any of his previous seasons, this will likely play a role in your evaluation of their previous production - thus, their injury history might creep into your projections despite your honest efforts to not account for it. It's not my intent to lecture on how to make projections, merely to demonstrate how they can be used in a definite method to improve your fantasy team.
2) Who's Gonna Be Drafted Before My Next Pick
This is where mock drafts and knowledge of the people in your league come in handy. For each and every one of your picks, try to estimate how many players at each position will be taken before your next pick. Example: I'm picking at 2.04 and next at 3.09 in a 12-team league. In the 11 picks between my picks, I'm going to guess (based upon mock drafts) that 5 WRs, 1 TE, 2 QBs, and 3 RBs will be taken. Do something like this for ALL of your picks (or, at the least, the first 6-7 rounds of the draft where the bulk of your starting lineup is taken).
How the method works:
The previous example states that you pick at 2.04. You believe that 5 WRs, 1 TE, 2 QBs, and 3 RBs will be taken before you pick again. Who should you take?
The method states that you should maximize the marginal point difference between who you have available now, and who will be available to you when you pick next. The point difference is estimated based upon your projections for your leagues scoring system. So, let's say that there are the following point differences:
@ WR: WR #3 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 5 have been taken) is #9. Projected point difference: 35.
@ TE: TE #1 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 1 has been taken) is #2. Projected point difference: 20.
@ QB: QB #2 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 2 have been taken) is #4. Projected point difference: 15.
@ RB: RB #13 on your projections is the first available, and next available (after 3 have been taken) is #16. Projected point difference: 25.
note: since you don't think any K or DEF will be taken, it makes no sense to take one here. They will be available at your next pick anyway.
If this were the results of your analysis to this point, the method would say that you're best served taking a WR at this pick. It has the largest projected point difference between who you can take now, and who will be available for you later. This will vary depending on a number of things: where you are on your list (ie - WHO has already been taken), how many will be taken before my next pick, and the actual values of your projections.
This is very important: there are exceptions which must necessarily be made to the method based upon your leagues lineup requirements and the differences between your projections and the projections of others.
Exception #1) Lineup Requirements
If your league requires 2 RB and 3 WR, and you have already drafted 2 RB, your weekly starting lineup is not improved if you take another RB. Under no conditions, based upon the criteria above, would it state that you should start drafting bench players before starters. In practice, this may not always prudent. Perhaps you have drafted, based upon the method, a player whose projections are high but whom you nonetheless perceive ("gut" feeling we're trying to avoid) to be an injury risk. When should you draft a back-up? There are two answers to this question. The first answer is that you can cave in to your "gut" feeling, and in the process completely negate the purpose of using the method. The second answer is to develop a criteria using the method. The question then becomes: what is a suitable criteria for drafting depth?
This is something I've yet to find a good answer to without resorting to the "gut" feeling involving player injuries. Not only injuries, but the possibility that your projections are terribly off-base. Here's the best idea I have to solve this, but it's not yet developed to a point I'm comfortable using it in practice:
Estimate, based upon your past fantasy performance as an owner, how far off your projections tend to be. IE - you are estimating the risk associated with your projections. Then, based upon this estimate, add uncertainties to all of your player projections (+/- how many points) AND number of players leaving the board between your picks (+/- how many players). Using the most conservative of these uncertainties, or, in other words, the worst case scenario, reconsider your marginal point differences and draft accordingly.
Exception #2) Value
If you project that the number 1 overall WR this year is going to be Eric Moulds, it might not be a good idea to take him with your first WR pick. The reason for this is that there is a large difference between your projections and the projections of others. Everyone else thinks Moulds will at best be the number 60 overall! Therefore, it's prudent to wait on picking Moulds until the number 60 overall WR would be taken before your next pick. There is always uncertainty in guessing the projections of your competitors, so I find it prudent to be sure to grab someone you have projected significantly higher than their perceived value at least one round before their ADP. (Note: this is only for the exceptional case that you feel the player will significantly outperform his ADP - giving you reason to pay a *little* bit more than his perceived value.)
Now, some of you may vehemently disagree on this point - saying that you should "let the draft come to you" and not to be hung up on specific targetted players. On this aspect I will respectfully disagree. If you feel that the player would significantly improve your fantasy roster, then you SHOULD be willing to pay more for that player than average perceived value in order to assure that player is contributing to your and not your competitors roster. However, there is no criteria for how "significant" the difference in perceived value should be before you decide to draft a player ahead of his value. This is something I hope to develop a criteria for (likely based upon CHANGES in perceived value, or, in other words, CHANGES in ADP of that player).
Thanks for reading, I hope this has been informative, and I hope that this can put to rest some of the "Don't Take Manning In Round 1" debates that always seem to pop up from year to year.
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