How to "win" at TE this year (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

After recently finishing my projections something really stuck out to me, and that something was a huge difference in my projections and what the ADP of certain TEs was/is.

With the exception of Finley and Gates, the next 6 TEs all projected out very similarly, yet I noticed that Witten's ADP was astronomically higher than Kellen Winslow's(for example).

So let's just start with those two as we dig into some numbers.

For Witten, I believe his 2010 spike in numbers under Kitna was a complete mirage. Consider the following numbers with Romo under center:

2009 - 94 -1030 yards 2 TDs

2010 - 72 - 880 yards 3.5 TDs (extrapolated full season using first six weeks when Romo played)

that would be two CONSECUTIVE underwhelming fantasy years by Witten

Witten's 2011 ADP: #50

Now let's take a look at Kellen Winslow's 2010 second half extrapolated.

66-786-10

Winslows 2011 ADP: #110

That's right, what you see is not a mirage. Winslow handily outscores each of Witten's last two years despite getting drafting 70 spots later in 2011 drafts.

I understand the first criticism, "LHUCKS, you can't just extrapolate partial seasons like that. You're toying with the numbers to make them work for you." I obviously don't believe that. Who can tell me why?

The premise is this, if you miss out on Finley or Gates in 2011, wait on TE this year. The position is deep, and Winslow in particular is a value play. Avoid the potential bust that is Witten and grab value TEs like Kellen Winslow...who is going 70 spots after Witten, that's right, SEVENTY.

This is called winning at TE in 2011.

Thank you for your time.

:schoolbus:

 

[Kruppe]

smarmy

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I agree with waiting on TE this year. I'd include later value plays also as Jimmy Graham, Cooley and Owen Daniels.

 

[LHUCKS]

smarmy

educating the pool one thread at a time

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree with waiting on TE this year. I'd include later value plays also as Jimmy Graham, Cooley and Owen Daniels.

Not a huge cooley fan, but Daniels and Graham have demonstrated upside and are also going very, very late.I have Gates and Finley projected in their own tier.After that I have a second tier with Clark and Davis.

 

[LHUCKS]

smarmy

perhaps:woz:

 

[adrenaline]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

Witten

96 1145 7

81 952 4

94 1030 2

94 1002 9

Winslow

82 1106 5

43 428 3

77 884 5

66 730 5

I'm not low on Winslow, I do feel he's in a great situation & IF he can start 16 games he's a better value. I just think Witten is a much safer pick, of all the top TEs he has the least injury risk.

 

[LHUCKS]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

So is counting on Winslow's knees. They are going to get worse with age, not better.

 

[adrenaline]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

Why is that?Does it not show a pattern of Winslow missing/being limited in games?It does show some consistency from Witten.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Why does Witten only get credit for 3.5 TD's?

By my count, Romo played in 5.25 games and in that time, he threw 2 TD passes to Witten? Shouldn't his TD's be projected at 6? If were being completely accurate via this method, the stat line over 16 games should read more like 76/863/6. Not a huge difference but the TD number looks more respectable and reflective of what actually happened.

One other factor that your analysis though doesn't take into account was the coaching change. While Romo has not played a snap with Garrett as HC, it's clear that the Cowboys modus aperandi on offense changed significantly. They actually became a more of a ball control outfit. When you use the argument, with Garrett as HC and then extrapolate - Witten's numbers look like 98/992/12.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't subscribe to either data set as conclusive. I do think Winslow represents good value respective to his position, but there is good value at most every position if you wait and correctly identify it. To say that Winslow's first 8 games should be thrown out...well, the only real difference between his production from the first half of the season to the second was that he did score. All the rest is identical. With TD's being a mercurial measurement to establish player value, especially as it relates to a player who drives the majority of their value from receptions, seems awfully hit ot miss.

 

[David Yudkin]

TE PPG (0 PPR) 2009-2010, ADP

1 Antonio Gates 11.61 34

2 Dallas Clark 10.20 44

3 Vernon Davis 9.62 58

4 Jason Witten 8.41 50

5 Jermichael Finley 7.43 51

6 Owen Daniels 7.42 75

7 Rob Gronkowski 7.16 106

8 Tony Gonzalez 7.01 112

9 Kellen Winslow 6.94 110

10 Aaron Hernandez 6.93 157

11 Brent Celek 6.88 158

12 Zach Miller 6.57 92

13 Chris Cooley 6.44 118

14 Todd Heap 6.39 201

15 Marcedes Lewis 6.25 101

16 Heath Miller 5.94 226

17 Visanthe Shiancoe 5.86 186

18 Kevin Boss 5.71 Not Top 250

19 Greg Olsen 5.61 170

20 Brandon Pettigrew 5.31 127

 

[LHUCKS]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

So is counting on Winslow's knees. They are going to get worse with age, not better.

He's been completely healthy the last two years and didn't have any surgery this offseason.

 

[Limp Ditka]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

So is counting on Winslow's knees. They are going to get worse with age, not better.

He's been completely healthy the last two years and didn't have any surgery this offseason.

So you're saying he's due, right?

 

[adrenaline]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

So is counting on Winslow's knees. They are going to get worse with age, not better.

He's been completely healthy the last two years and didn't have any surgery this offseason.

Him being listed as probable for 9-10 games last season says otherwise

 

[LHUCKS]

Why does Witten only get credit for 3.5 TD's?By my count, Romo played in 5.25 games and in that time, he threw 2 TD passes to Witten? Shouldn't his TD's be projected at 6? If were being completely accurate via this method, the stat line over 16 games should read more like 76/863/6. Not a huge difference but the TD number looks more respectable and reflective of what actually happened.

I only included games where Romo played the entire game. It would seem odd to include a partial game.

One other factor that your analysis though doesn't take into account was the coaching change. While Romo has not played a snap with Garrett as HC, it's clear that the Cowboys modus aperandi on offense changed significantly. They actually became a more of a ball control outfit. When you use the argument, with Garrett as HC and then extrapolate - Witten's numbers look like 98/992/12.

One could argue that Garrett favors TEs as HC, I am not one of those people. Garrett was still the OC that past two years with Romo under center. I think it's clear Romo is the common denominator here.

I do think Winslow represents good value respective to his position, but there is good value at most every position if you wait and correctly identify it.

I didn't say their wasn't, I'm merely pointing out this value for the sharkpool to see.

To say that Winslow's first 8 games should be thrown out...well, the only real difference between his production from the first half of the season to the second was that he did score. All the rest is identical. With TD's being a mercurial measurement to establish player value, especially as it relates to a player who drives the majority of their value from receptions, seems awfully hit ot miss.

I actually have Winslow projected for an uptick in receptions due to increased offensive efficiency and effectiveness. Freeman and this offense will be getting better, not worse IMHO. The stats I posted don't reflect this so I probably should have mentioned this, but the Shark Pool is so stat-centric they often dismiss qualitative data/observation so I try to keep the analysis quantitative in nature to appease the guppies that have simplistic thinking.Thanks for the questioning Dirty, you're one of the few posters whose opinion I consistently respect around here.

 

[LHUCKS]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

So is counting on Winslow's knees. They are going to get worse with age, not better.

He's been completely healthy the last two years and didn't have any surgery this offseason.

Him being listed as probable for 9-10 games last season says otherwise

I simply don't believe his injury risk is that much worse when compared to other TEs...Gates, Graham, Daniels, Finley...the TE list is riddled with injury histories.

 

[Captain Hook]

TE PPG (0 PPR) 2009-2010, ADP1 Antonio Gates 11.61 342 Dallas Clark 10.20 443 Vernon Davis 9.62 584 Jason Witten 8.41 505 Jermichael Finley 7.43 516 Owen Daniels 7.42 757 Rob Gronkowski 7.16 1068 Tony Gonzalez 7.01 1129 Kellen Winslow 6.94 11010 Aaron Hernandez 6.93 15711 Brent Celek 6.88 15812 Zach Miller 6.57 9213 Chris Cooley 6.44 11814 Todd Heap 6.39 20115 Marcedes Lewis 6.25 10116 Heath Miller 5.94 22617 Visanthe Shiancoe 5.86 18618 Kevin Boss 5.71 Not Top 25019 Greg Olsen 5.61 17020 Brandon Pettigrew 5.31 127

Good posting...BUT I think the problem with it is that this ADP is likely to change with more concerns about Gates foot issues.....Clark also has injury concerns and frankly Finley must have some concern there too.All those plus Davis without a real QB support HALF of LHUCKS analysis - waiting on TE to grab one of the second tier is likely the best value play.....BUT Witten might well be the best TE in 2011 (again) and there is a substantial difference in ppg from the Stud TE at 10+ ppg to the second tier at 7 ppg however that should be made up for by the RB or WR you take when you would have to draft a STUD TE

 

[LHUCKS]

TE PPG (0 PPR) 2009-2010, ADP1 Antonio Gates 11.61 342 Dallas Clark 10.20 443 Vernon Davis 9.62 584 Jason Witten 8.41 505 Jermichael Finley 7.43 516 Owen Daniels 7.42 757 Rob Gronkowski 7.16 1068 Tony Gonzalez 7.01 1129 Kellen Winslow 6.94 11010 Aaron Hernandez 6.93 15711 Brent Celek 6.88 15812 Zach Miller 6.57 9213 Chris Cooley 6.44 11814 Todd Heap 6.39 20115 Marcedes Lewis 6.25 10116 Heath Miller 5.94 22617 Visanthe Shiancoe 5.86 18618 Kevin Boss 5.71 Not Top 25019 Greg Olsen 5.61 17020 Brandon Pettigrew 5.31 127

Are these 2011 numbers, your post confuses me.Assuming 2011, I used MFL stats...where did you pull these from?

 

[Instinctive]

How is 90+ for 1000+ underwhelming? That was Witten's 09...you're paying too much attention to TDs, which you can't accurately predict year-to-year.

TDs are not something you can predict. With Roy WIlliams gone (let's recall, he was WR2 worthy in Fantasy while Romo was in there) I think that Witten is once again right in the 90-1000 range.

That's some consistency. TDs are much too volatile to be projecting for...I'll take 80-900 from my TE if I gotta take one in the 5th round or so, and that's an underestimate on Witten.

That said - I agree with waiting on TE this year. I'm a big fan of Jared Cook this season, and Marcedes Lewis is undervalued a ton, especially given the propensity for rookie QBs to lean on TEs.

The Winslow prediction is interesting but, once again, you're relying on TDs (although Lewis is TD dependent too, a red flag for his potential and a possible reason to say last year was a fluke) to give him his points. This same conversation was had about Gates 1 or 2 (or perhaps 3, can't quite remember) years ago, when people said he wasn't going to be that great and he was on a decline because the previous season he hadn't scored in that amazing tier we were used to seeing from him. I may go look for the thread later, but the bottom line was that one side said his yardage correlated to more TDs, and his low number was an aberration based on luck. The most relevant comparative arguments are those of ERA and Batting Average in baseball: A pitcher's ERA can vary depending purely on luck. If he's pitching well, but batter's are getting lucky against him with an abnormally high batting average on balls in play, then his ERA is artificially higher than it should be - he's a candidate for a strong rest-of-season or next-season. On the same side, a batter could be getting unusually unlucky: he could have similar ground ball/fly ball/line drive rates to the rest of his career as a .300 hitter, but if he's getting unlucky he may only be batting, say, .270 - he's a candidate to bounce back just like the pitcher because while he may not start to get lucky, the numbers will probably balance out enough that he stops getting unlucky.

The same can be said for receivers in football. The TDs are too hard to predict. It's the same reason that Dwayne Bowe is a big candidate for regression this year. He's a nice bet for 75-1000+, but the chances that he scores 15 TDs again are practically zero. That being said, one could say that some players do seem to have an ability to find that end zone. TO, Moss, those guys always seemed to get theirs. But, oh wait, what's this?! TDs tend to correlate to yardage. Could it be that they simply had the receptions and yardage year in and year out that would say "I bet he scores around 10 TDs each season." I think it could! A guy like Andre Johnson is another case. He scores 8-9 TDs most every year. But back when he was hurt and played only 9 games...he also had 8 TDs in that half season. He was on pace for 15 or 16 - BECAUSE HE WAS LUCKY THAT YEAR. And he hasn't been that lucky again since. Same with Steve Smith - he had one really lucky 12 TD outlier season.

On the subject of Winslow, all of that would say that he is unlikely to reach double digit TDs..like your small sample would suggest. Not to mention the fact that Freeman last year has what is likely to be an unsustainable 6:1 TD:Int ratio, Benn should improve, Blount will be there all year and is likely to score more TDs (based on the fact that he had a low number last year for the yardage he accrued)...All of this points to Winslow not acheiving the numbers you predict. The receptions and yardage? I could see that. But 6-7 TDs is much more likely, in my mind. And say 2 of them are multi TD games? You're looking at two very nice weeks...2-3 good weeks, and a bunch of replaceable production. Witten, on the other hand, probably gets about 6-80 each week. That's startable at WR, much less at TE. EVen with 0 TDs on the season, I would prefer Witten on a weekly basis for his consistency.

Jason Witten's value comes from the fact that he's a solid bet for 90-1000 on a yearly basis with Romo. I am gonna say you're using a small sample size when you extrapolate 6 games out to a full year. Hell, a full season is a small sample size. Just because you use a variation of jury inoculation by saying "I know some people well say the sample is too small" doesn't mean that it isn't. Even then, those numbers are close enough to his typical 90-1000 that I'd be willing to bet that's about where he would have ended up had Romo continued to play without being hurt.

Like I said - I like my chances with Jared Cook later, but I wouldn't fault anyone taking Witten from about pick 50 on. In fact, now that I've done some extra research into him, I might actually change my strategy to targeting him in the late 4th/early 5th area. He's incredibly consistent.

 

[LHUCKS]

Good posting...BUT I think the problem with it is that this ADP is likely to change with more concerns about Gates foot issues.....Clark also has injury concerns and frankly Finley must have some concern there too.

exactly

All those plus Davis without a real QB support HALF of LHUCKS analysis - waiting on TE to grab one of the second tier is likely the best value play.....BUT Witten might well be the best TE in 2011 (again) and there is a substantial difference in ppg from the Stud TE at 10+ ppg to the second tier at 7 ppg

So you're not concerned with Witten's lack of fantasy production with Romo over the past two years?

however that should be made up for by the RB or WR you take when you would have to draft a STUD TE

Exactly!! this is a +EV play!!

 

[David Yudkin]

TE PPG (0 PPR) 2009-2010, ADP1 Antonio Gates 11.61 342 Dallas Clark 10.20 443 Vernon Davis 9.62 584 Jason Witten 8.41 505 Jermichael Finley 7.43 516 Owen Daniels 7.42 757 Rob Gronkowski 7.16 1068 Tony Gonzalez 7.01 1129 Kellen Winslow 6.94 11010 Aaron Hernandez 6.93 15711 Brent Celek 6.88 15812 Zach Miller 6.57 9213 Chris Cooley 6.44 11814 Todd Heap 6.39 20115 Marcedes Lewis 6.25 10116 Heath Miller 5.94 22617 Visanthe Shiancoe 5.86 18618 Kevin Boss 5.71 Not Top 25019 Greg Olsen 5.61 17020 Brandon Pettigrew 5.31 127

Are these 2011 numbers, your post confuses me.Assuming 2011, I used MFL stats...where did you pull these from?

Consesus ADP results from FBG posted yesterday for 0 PPR leagues.PPG for all games from 2009 and 2010 . . . 2011 ADP.

 

[adrenaline]

If you look at their last 4 years it's a clearer story.

I think that's a huge mistake

So is counting on Winslow's knees. They are going to get worse with age, not better.

He's been completely healthy the last two years and didn't have any surgery this offseason.

Him being listed as probable for 9-10 games last season says otherwise

I simply don't believe his injury risk is that much worse when compared to other TEs...Gates, Graham, Daniels, Finley...the TE list is riddled with injury histories.

I thought we were talking about Winslow vs Witten. You're an alright dancer though.

 

[GregR_2]

Why does Witten only get credit for 3.5 TD's?By my count, Romo played in 5.25 games and in that time, he threw 2 TD passes to Witten? Shouldn't his TD's be projected at 6? If were being completely accurate via this method, the stat line over 16 games should read more like 76/863/6. Not a huge difference but the TD number looks more respectable and reflective of what actually happened.

I only included games where Romo played the entire game. It would seem odd to include a partial game.

You're specifically caring about the Romo-to-Witten connection. But the criteria you're using is removing half of Witten's touchdowns thrown by Romo?That seems more odd than using a partial game does. By the consequences of the logic you're using, if Romo had been more resilient by 3 quarters than he'd have been more likely to throw the ball to Witten in the end zone over the course of the 2011 season. Doesn't make any sense.

 

[LHUCKS]

Like I said - I like my chances with Jared Cook later, but I wouldn't fault anyone taking Witten from about pick 50 on. In fact, now that I've done some extra research into him, I might actually change my strategy to targeting him in the late 4th/early 5th area. He's incredibly consistent.

This is how you make the playoffs but don't win. Arian Foster was going around the same spot as Witten last year.Consistent, unspectacular picks often win you nothing.

 

[Shutout]

Would push that out to include Clark and Vernon. After those four, I can buy a case for waiting but not for Winslow. I would wait further and get Owen Daniels or Chris Cooley and feel much better about the chances that Daniels in particular could put up very good numbers. If I wanted to gamble a bit more I would wait a LONG time and get Olsen and have a decent chance of WINNING the TE draft.

 

[FF Ninja]

This thread is giving me deja vu. Haven't we already heard this crap before?

 

[LHUCKS]

You're specifically caring about the Romo-to-Witten connection. But the criteria you're using is removing half of Witten's touchdowns thrown by Romo?That seems more odd than using a partial game does. By the consequences of the logic you're using, if Romo had been more resilient by 3 quarters than he'd have been more likely to throw the ball to Witten in the end zone over the course of the 2011 season. Doesn't make any sense.

Romo only threw 7 passes that game...it was an easy decision.Even if you credit him with the TD and subsequently extrapolate, it doesn't change the premise or my conclusion.It's a very easy conclusion to come to.

 

[LHUCKS]

Would push that out to include Clark and Vernon.

Agreed. But I do have Finley and Gates in their own tier as of now.

 

[LHUCKS]

TE PPG (0 PPR) 2009-2010, ADP1 Antonio Gates 11.61 342 Dallas Clark 10.20 443 Vernon Davis 9.62 584 Jason Witten 8.41 505 Jermichael Finley 7.43 516 Owen Daniels 7.42 757 Rob Gronkowski 7.16 1068 Tony Gonzalez 7.01 1129 Kellen Winslow 6.94 11010 Aaron Hernandez 6.93 15711 Brent Celek 6.88 15812 Zach Miller 6.57 9213 Chris Cooley 6.44 11814 Todd Heap 6.39 20115 Marcedes Lewis 6.25 10116 Heath Miller 5.94 22617 Visanthe Shiancoe 5.86 18618 Kevin Boss 5.71 Not Top 25019 Greg Olsen 5.61 17020 Brandon Pettigrew 5.31 127

Are these 2011 numbers, your post confuses me.Assuming 2011, I used MFL stats...where did you pull these from?

Consesus ADP results from FBG posted yesterday for 0 PPR leagues.PPG for all games from 2009 and 2010 . . . 2011 ADP.

cool, thanks, I updated the original post using this ADP

 

[GregR_2]

If you don't want to work in partial games then work in pass attempts.

Romo throw a touchdown once every 19.3 pass attempts in 2011. He threw a touchdown to Witten once every 106.5 pass attempts. This when he was on pace to throw the ball around 660 times last year. They ended up throwing it 570 times last year.

If you think that drops to say, 550, which is below what they threw in 2009, you're still looking at 5 touchdowns at the same pace as in 2011.

 

[LHUCKS]

If you don't want to work in partial games then work in pass attempts.Romo throw a touchdown once every 19.3 pass attempts in 2011. He threw a touchdown to Witten once every 106.5 pass attempts. This when he was on pace to throw the ball around 660 times last year. They ended up throwing it 570 times last year.If you think that drops to say, 550, which is below what they threw in 2009, you're still looking at 5 touchdowns at the same pace as in 2011.

makes sense

 

[DaMenace18]

There's something missing in this thread. His name is Dallas Clark.

Dallas Clark IMO will replicate similar numbers to what Witten did under Kitna last season.

In PPR land, Clark with those projections will score 234 Fantasy points. I have Gates in second with 229.

After Gates and Clark there is a significant drop off in points, according to my projections, based off a PPR scoring format.

My next TE is Witten, I have him projected close to your projections: 79 Catches, 880 Yards, and about 6 scores. Those numbers equal out to be 207 fantasy points. Finnelly will have similar numbers.

Between Clark and Witten there is a 27 Point deferential, yet Clark has been drafted after Gates, Finnely and even Witten in PPR leagues.

Clarks 234 > Wittens 207.

 

[LHUCKS]

There's something missing in this thread. His name is Dallas Clark.Dallas Clark IMO will replicate similar numbers to what Witten did under Kitna last season. In PPR land, Clark with those projections will score 234 Fantasy points. I have Gates in second with 229.After Gates and Clark there is a significant drop off in points, according to my projections, based off a PPR scoring format.My next TE is Witten, I have him projected close to your projections: 79 Catches, 880 Yards, and about 6 scores. Those numbers equal out to be 207 fantasy points. Finnelly will have similar numbers. Between Clark and Witten there is a 27 Point deferential, yet Clark has been drafted after Gates, Finnely and even Witten in PPR leagues. Clarks 234 > Wittens 207.

I have Clark projected 3rd and going about where he should in PPRs. I have Finley projected much higher than you.I agree that Clark is better value than Witten this year.

 

[Tanner9919]

smarmy

educating the pool one thread at a time

LHUCKSI've owned Witten in a keeper league since he entered the league.one thing you'll notice about him is that he starts out hot, slows down in oct-nov, and really heats up again in December.. from 2007-2010, in each season, he's recorded at or near 30recs during that time frame. Maybe it has a lot to do with Romo , I don't know..but I like that fact that the guy seems to get better as the year rolls by.

Winslow's best month is November.

why is that important? fantasy playoffs begin in December..

another difference between Winslow and Witten is that Winslow is not playing in such a TE-friendly offense as Witten is. Winslow also wasn't asked to stay in and block as much as Witten was last season..(94 recs when doubling as an add'l o-lineman is impressive..)

TD's have been scarce for Witten, but even worse for Winslow..

you're wrong about Kitna - Witten still caught 94 balls with the emergence of Austin in 2009,and Dez+Austin in 2010.Surely with BOTH wr's catching balls in 2010, you'd expect Witten's #'s would've dropped off a bit, right? nope.TD's went up, recs stayed the same..

with or without Kitna, he was going to catch a boatload of balls last season.

and Witten is remarkably durable and consistent.

 

[DaMenace18]

There's something missing in this thread. His name is Dallas Clark.Dallas Clark IMO will replicate similar numbers to what Witten did under Kitna last season. In PPR land, Clark with those projections will score 234 Fantasy points. I have Gates in second with 229.After Gates and Clark there is a significant drop off in points, according to my projections, based off a PPR scoring format.My next TE is Witten, I have him projected close to your projections: 79 Catches, 880 Yards, and about 6 scores. Those numbers equal out to be 207 fantasy points. Finnelly will have similar numbers. Between Clark and Witten there is a 27 Point deferential, yet Clark has been drafted after Gates, Finnely and even Witten in PPR leagues. Clarks 234 > Wittens 207.

I have Clark projected 3rd and going about where he should in PPRs. I have Finley projected much higher than you.I agree that Clark is better value than Witten this year.

Okay so if we went off your rankings/projections wouldn't their be a huge drop off between the 3 TEs (Finnely, Clark, Gates) and a guy like Davis, Witten and Graham/Daniels? Just curious what your projections for Finnely. I do think that Packers will not base their offense off of Finnely, unlike last year. He will be limited at the start of the season and it may take a few weeks for him to really get going. Therefore, won't have allot of catches which is why i group closely with a guy like Vernon Davis.

 

[DaMenace18]

i mean i got Clark at pick 55 in our PPR league, with +2 bonus pts when a Receiver has over a 100+ recieving yards. Gates went in the late third (reach) and Finnely just got drafted before i was up. So I'm pretty happy.

 

[LHUCKS]

Okay so if we went off your rankings/projections wouldn't their be a huge drop off between the 3 TEs (Finnely, Clark, Gates) and a guy like Davis, Witten and Graham/Daniels?

I have a sizable dropoff after Finley/Gates. Next tier is Davis/Clark with a subtle dropoff to the next tier. Witten is in the next tier.

Just curious what your projections for Finnely. I do think that Packers will not base their offense off of Finnely, unlike last year. He will be limited at the start of the season and it may take a few weeks for him to really get going. Therefore, won't have allot of catches which is why i group closely with a guy like Vernon Davis.

Finley is the most explosive TE in the league when healthy. Rodgers is going to get him the ball. I don't project static numbers for players but my weighted midpoint for Finley is 80/1150/7

 

[Banger]

Not sure what's different this year but I've gone to the Winslow well for years. He's the forgotten man at TE..he's not going to be the best TE in the league but he gives you a lot of receptions, good yardage and OK td production. TE has become sooo deep over the past few years if you don't get the top couple just wait till the end of the draft.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not sure what's different this year but I've gone to the Winslow well for years. He's the forgotten man at TE..he's not going to be the best TE in the league but he gives you a lot of receptions, good yardage and OK td production.

With TB's offense trending up, don't be surprised if Winslow easily surpasses his recent production. Freeman is only going to get better IMHO and that can only mean good things for Winslow.

 

[Banger]

Not sure what's different this year but I've gone to the Winslow well for years. He's the forgotten man at TE..he's not going to be the best TE in the league but he gives you a lot of receptions, good yardage and OK td production.

With TB's offense trending up, don't be surprised if Winslow easily surpasses his recent production. Freeman is only going to get better IMHO.

ya, but how much better? and how much of that incremental improvement shifts right to the developing #2/#3 wrs (Benn)? The #2-4 wrs last year only totalled 884 yards which has got to be near the bottom of the league. Also, Williams is a hell of a young wr and he'll likely increase his footprint in the offense. So on it's face I don't disagree that TB's offense may grow more, I just don't know the reasoning that Winslow will be beneficiary.I've always been a fan of Winslow and wouldn't be suprised if he ended up on my team again but at this point he is what he is IMO. He's a good, solid 7-770-5.5 td that you can get real late and enable you to stock up on other value but I don't see a lot of upside/growth at this stage.

 

[Instinctive]

Like I said - I like my chances with Jared Cook later, but I wouldn't fault anyone taking Witten from about pick 50 on. In fact, now that I've done some extra research into him, I might actually change my strategy to targeting him in the late 4th/early 5th area. He's incredibly consistent.

This is how you make the playoffs but don't win. Arian Foster was going around the same spot as Witten last year.Consistent, unspectacular picks often win you nothing.

Missing the entire post for one portion at the bottom...typical. Once again you had your argument shredded yet had absolutely nothing to come back with What works in the FFA doesn't work here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not sure what's different this year but I've gone to the Winslow well for years. He's the forgotten man at TE..he's not going to be the best TE in the league but he gives you a lot of receptions, good yardage and OK td production.

With TB's offense trending up, don't be surprised if Winslow easily surpasses his recent production. Freeman is only going to get better IMHO and that can only mean good things for Winslow.

So are you willing to just annoint the Bucs and their offense as reaching and attaining a different strata?Last year, the team feasted on poor defenses and a cupcake schedule. IIRC, the only game time they beat one team with a winning record (the Saints in the final week of the season when the game by that point didn't matter).Do you have any reservations that with a tougher schedule that they will reverse course and give back some of the gains they forged last year?

 

[LHUCKS]

What works in the FFA doesn't work here.

I forgot that I have you on ignore...feel free to find you way into the countless useless threads in this forum...the "T.O. vs. Moss" thread is calling your name.shoo now

 

[LHUCKS]

So are you willing to just annoint the Bucs and their offense as reaching and attaining a different strata?Last year, the team feasted on poor defenses and a cupcake schedule. IIRC, the only game time they beat one team with a winning record (the Saints in the final week of the season when the game by that point didn't matter).Do you have any reservations that with a tougher schedule that they will reverse course and give back some of the gains they forged last year?

I think it is more likely that their passing offense will progress as opposed to regress which only favors Winslow.Not sure if that answers your question.

 

[Instinctive]

How is 90+ for 1000+ underwhelming? That was Witten's 09...you're paying too much attention to TDs, which you can't accurately predict year-to-year.

TDs are not something you can predict. With Roy WIlliams gone (let's recall, he was WR2 worthy in Fantasy while Romo was in there) I think that Witten is once again right in the 90-1000 range.

That's some consistency. TDs are much too volatile to be projecting for...I'll take 80-900 from my TE if I gotta take one in the 5th round or so, and that's an underestimate on Witten.

That said - I agree with waiting on TE this year. I'm a big fan of Jared Cook this season, and Marcedes Lewis is undervalued a ton, especially given the propensity for rookie QBs to lean on TEs.

The Winslow prediction is interesting but, once again, you're relying on TDs (although Lewis is TD dependent too, a red flag for his potential and a possible reason to say last year was a fluke) to give him his points. This same conversation was had about Gates 1 or 2 (or perhaps 3, can't quite remember) years ago, when people said he wasn't going to be that great and he was on a decline because the previous season he hadn't scored in that amazing tier we were used to seeing from him. I may go look for the thread later, but the bottom line was that one side said his yardage correlated to more TDs, and his low number was an aberration based on luck. The most relevant comparative arguments are those of ERA and Batting Average in baseball: A pitcher's ERA can vary depending purely on luck. If he's pitching well, but batter's are getting lucky against him with an abnormally high batting average on balls in play, then his ERA is artificially higher than it should be - he's a candidate for a strong rest-of-season or next-season. On the same side, a batter could be getting unusually unlucky: he could have similar ground ball/fly ball/line drive rates to the rest of his career as a .300 hitter, but if he's getting unlucky he may only be batting, say, .270 - he's a candidate to bounce back just like the pitcher because while he may not start to get lucky, the numbers will probably balance out enough that he stops getting unlucky.

The same can be said for receivers in football. The TDs are too hard to predict. It's the same reason that Dwayne Bowe is a big candidate for regression this year. He's a nice bet for 75-1000+, but the chances that he scores 15 TDs again are practically zero. That being said, one could say that some players do seem to have an ability to find that end zone. TO, Moss, those guys always seemed to get theirs. But, oh wait, what's this?! TDs tend to correlate to yardage. Could it be that they simply had the receptions and yardage year in and year out that would say "I bet he scores around 10 TDs each season." I think it could! A guy like Andre Johnson is another case. He scores 8-9 TDs most every year. But back when he was hurt and played only 9 games...he also had 8 TDs in that half season. He was on pace for 15 or 16 - BECAUSE HE WAS LUCKY THAT YEAR. And he hasn't been that lucky again since. Same with Steve Smith - he had one really lucky 12 TD outlier season.

On the subject of Winslow, all of that would say that he is unlikely to reach double digit TDs..like your small sample would suggest. Not to mention the fact that Freeman last year has what is likely to be an unsustainable 6:1 TD:Int ratio, Benn should improve, Blount will be there all year and is likely to score more TDs (based on the fact that he had a low number last year for the yardage he accrued)...All of this points to Winslow not acheiving the numbers you predict. The receptions and yardage? I could see that. But 6-7 TDs is much more likely, in my mind. And say 2 of them are multi TD games? You're looking at two very nice weeks...2-3 good weeks, and a bunch of replaceable production. Witten, on the other hand, probably gets about 6-80 each week. That's startable at WR, much less at TE. EVen with 0 TDs on the season, I would prefer Witten on a weekly basis for his consistency.

Jason Witten's value comes from the fact that he's a solid bet for 90-1000 on a yearly basis with Romo. I am gonna say you're using a small sample size when you extrapolate 6 games out to a full year. Hell, a full season is a small sample size. Just because you use a variation of jury inoculation by saying "I know some people well say the sample is too small" doesn't mean that it isn't. Even then, those numbers are close enough to his typical 90-1000 that I'd be willing to bet that's about where he would have ended up had Romo continued to play without being hurt.

 

[finito]

Good thread. Guys I'm targeting are Zach Miller and Pettigrew.

 

[De Novo]

Despite the fact that I'm not a terribly big fan of LHUCKS's shtick, I agree with this. I'm ok with Witten in the 6th because I think Winslow becomes a sexy pick and ends up with a 8/9th round ADP. But, I do like Winslow this year.

 

[DrapedInVelvet]

Thanks for an interesting thread. Is there anything that changed for Winslow in the 2nd half of the season. Got healthier or more involved in the offense? Basically what i am trying to get at is there some reason for the improved performance that we can extrapolate for this season rather just a random increase in TDs?

 

[LHUCKS]

Thanks for an interesting thread. Is there anything that changed for Winslow in the 2nd half of the season. Got healthier or more involved in the offense? Basically what i am trying to get at is there some reason for the improved performance that we can extrapolate for this season rather just a random increase in TDs?

My opinion is that Freeman developed a trust with Winslow in the redzone.receptions/yardage were pretty consistent, the main difference was redzone targets